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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #16,061
  • Sep 15, 2014 4:57am Sep 15, 2014 4:57am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} if this was all of the wave green 4 (up), then based on the retracement best targets now would be 2815 2743 2626 let's see
Agree 100%. All i see is more down on EUR, if you look EJ, EA, ECAD, EU they had significant retracements, key levels have yet not been broken for trend to change into bear, but retracements were strong enough that this is likely to expect. And as it goes for dollar, same stays as last week, there are no signs of downgoing.
EU is probably strongest possibility for down move, becouse JPYs still have no definitive move trough CJ for down direction as key level still holds but we will know for EUR croses by tomorrow.

GU meanwhile is wierd one, waiting for break in either direction.

Look at that pic:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...4_crusades.jpg
How is that even a proxy war anymore. If thats so France in 1940 was proxy war aswell and term has no more meaning. As for US numbers i dont believe it at all, there is several thousand Blackwater troops stationed in Iraq i dont believe they are sitting on their asses at all.
  • #16,062
  • Sep 15, 2014 7:31am Sep 15, 2014 7:31am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Agree 100%. All i see is more down on EUR, if you look EJ, EA, ECAD, EU they had significant retracements, key levels have yet not been broken for trend to change into bear, but retracements were strong enough that this is likely to expect. And as it goes for dollar, same stays as last week, there are no signs of downgoing. EU is probably strongest possibility for down move, becouse JPYs still have no definitive move trough CJ for down direction as key level still holds but we will know for EUR croses by tomorrow. GU meanwhile is wierd one,...

completely agree on all your points
  • #16,063
  • Sep 15, 2014 7:34am Sep 15, 2014 7:34am
Horvat on EU

http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ell...er/2014/09/15/
  • #16,064
  • Sep 15, 2014 8:31am Sep 15, 2014 8:31am
Very nice article:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ategies-astray

Especially points:
Recently, Central Bankers have colluded to destroy other weak currencies to create the illusion of US dollar strength.

GJ
http://prntscr.com/4n1tf8
  • #16,065
  • Edited 4:27pm Sep 15, 2014 11:17am | Edited 4:27pm
Quoting janpec1000
Very nice article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ategies-astray Especially points: Recently, Central Bankers have colluded to destroy other weak currencies to create the illusion of US dollar strength. GJ http://prntscr.com/4n1tf8
GJ worked out. Holding now GJ short from 174.14 for target 173. Might get might not.


New charts, those are quite solid, expect all of them to work out:
http://prntscr.com/4n6xdu
http://prntscr.com/4n6xo9
http://prntscr.com/4n6y8s
http://prntscr.com/4n6ymy
  • #16,066
  • Sep 16, 2014 1:15am Sep 16, 2014 1:15am
Nice distributions short term

EU
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  • #16,067
  • Sep 16, 2014 1:20am Sep 16, 2014 1:20am
EU long term distribution
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  • #16,068
  • Sep 16, 2014 4:18am Sep 16, 2014 4:18am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} GJ worked out. Holding now GJ short from 174.14 for target 173. Might get might not. New charts, those are quite solid, expect all of them to work out: http://prntscr.com/4n6xdu http://prntscr.com/4n6xo9 http://prntscr.com/4n6y8s http://prntscr.com/4n6ymy
GJ TP hit, +115 pips. All other calls worked out as planned, i only took GJ however as it was trough night.
  • #16,069
  • Sep 16, 2014 4:34am Sep 16, 2014 4:34am
Looks like some JPY weaknes coming ahead:
http://prntscr.com/4nbhcx
http://prntscr.com/4nbhk0
http://prntscr.com/4nbhnt
http://prntscr.com/4nbhr7

This means that AUDJPY bottom will most likely fail, gona try to take M5 CJ or EJ long if there is setup.
  • #16,070
  • Sep 16, 2014 7:27am Sep 16, 2014 7:27am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...-scandals.html

Biggest Banks Said to Overhaul FX Trading After Scandals
  • #16,071
  • Sep 16, 2014 8:14am Sep 16, 2014 8:14am
Quoting infinitus
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...-scandals.html Biggest Banks Said to Overhaul FX Trading After Scandals
Ok so, kill 20 bankers related to major FX positions in JPM and other banks, then with "regulations" completly decimate most FX divisions on banks (lower prop trader divisions), and just keep the whole scheme to only maybe 1 bank in western globe to manipulate markets like never seen before, with dollar crumbling on Russia and China hits and all things developing from today till end of year Shanghai gold, Chinese silver reserves dry, Shanghai gold exchange, Switzerland referendum, further dedollarization, it makes sense they just throw it all under head of JPMs currency department and keep things more centralized and less prone to possible whistleblowers. The article defenetly shows that carthel is fearsome of people within carthel working itself, so decimating it makes perfect sense.
  • #16,072
  • Sep 16, 2014 10:03am Sep 16, 2014 10:03am
Quoting janpec1000
Looks like some JPY weaknes coming ahead: http://prntscr.com/4nbhcx http://prntscr.com/4nbhk0 http://prntscr.com/4nbhnt http://prntscr.com/4nbhr7 This means that AUDJPY bottom will most likely fail, gona try to take M5 CJ or EJ long if there is setup.
All done. Took 30 pips from GN short.


Dollar preaparing for another break higher. UJ 107 break is invalidation of it. EUR and GBP will follow down substentially if we get it moving tomorrow early.
  • #16,073
  • Sep 16, 2014 10:21am Sep 16, 2014 10:21am
USD

Currently testing supply at the Low of Daily range (84.25 to 84.30) with good result i.e. no selling pressure.
Nevertheless I think we should prepare that maybe they also want to test 84.00 to 84.20 area.

Index reference: http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-d...treaming-chart
  • #16,074
  • Sep 16, 2014 10:30am Sep 16, 2014 10:30am
Quoting andexQ
USD Currently testing supply at the Low of Daily range (84.25 to 84.30) with good result i.e. no selling pressure. Nevertheless I think we should prepare that maybe they also want to test 84.00 to 84.20 area. Index reference: http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-d...treaming-chart

with probability 50% : 50% that test will occur.
  • #16,075
  • Sep 16, 2014 11:05am Sep 16, 2014 11:05am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...rcises-ukraine

Quote
Well, at least nobody is even hiding any more that NATO is both implicitly and explicitly involved in the Ukraine war, which has now surpassed simple proxy status and is in effect one between Russia and the West, quite directly.

Thats what i was posting about yesterday, Middle east and Ukraine are no longer proxy wars and the scariest part of all of it is that none of side will give up.

AndexQ, we are testing bottom defending point for bulls now on dollar, lets see if it can be defended, tomorrow London will tell.
  • #16,076
  • Sep 16, 2014 12:05pm Sep 16, 2014 12:05pm
Quoting janpec1000
AndexQ, we are testing bottom defending point for bulls now on dollar, lets see if it can be defended, tomorrow London will tell.
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Indeed. From USD point of view that area equivalent with 84.00 to 84.20 area where fresh and strong demand might re-enter the market, if this occur then up-trend may continue due to supplies that hit USD last week in my opinion rather like profit taking than selling pressure.

I think they're coming..
  • #16,077
  • Sep 16, 2014 6:50pm Sep 16, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting 2046
H4 then (Sep 09) {image} and now: {image} Friday brought confirmation of a bullish Tenkan Kijun cross on H4 (above chart), ending a short signal of 430pips. Resistance from levels as per chart and from bottom of kumo (highlighted in amber). I would interpret the channel a bit wider than fini did on previous page. 30055 is the level of Kijun sen on H4 and also of Tenkan sen on D1. D1 remains short and counting at 700 pips, see below: {image}
H4 bull is standing on thin ice now, first Kumo resistance, then rejection and descending TL.
Anway, FED and other news will be the driving forces Wednesday.

Sep 12
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today
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  • #16,078
  • Edited 12:40pm Sep 17, 2014 4:40am | Edited 12:40pm
Wont be posting any charts today as FOMC is comming and tomorrow Scottland, so markets will be driven fundamentally.

EDIT: AUD weakness coming failed demand at moment:
http://prntscr.com/4nq6d9

Gold (direction doesnt count in case of tomorrows referendum)
http://prntscr.com/4nq6ra

USDCHF
http://prntscr.com/4nq7dk

GA
http://prntscr.com/4nq8hq

EURAUD
http://prntscr.com/4nq9g6
  • #16,079
  • Sep 17, 2014 1:46pm Sep 17, 2014 1:46pm
EW on EU

4h TF

so far, so good

maybe we go down directly, or we get a more complex green 4
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  • #16,080
  • Sep 17, 2014 2:03pm Sep 17, 2014 2:03pm
Quoting infinitus
EW on EU 4h TF so far, so good maybe we go down directly, or we get a more complex green 4 {image}
looks like it will test 2860! ...
I see the break of the triangle ...4H chart..
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