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  • #321
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:42am Sep 15, 2014 5:42am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 25%, SS – 12% /
Not much to say hear, since we’ve only got a change signal, no extreme. The change was large, so it may influence prices this week in a positive way (= pushing prices higher)

Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
As you can see, last week we’ve witnessed a significant price decline, so it may be that prices have reached their top already. If so, we shouldn’t be surprised, knowing how extreme the market is. Of course it is also unnecessary to be disappointed if you haven’t entered the trade, in the long term there is still profit to me made on this decline. Question is: are we really over the top? This will be answered only is some weeks’ time, when stress levels change: if they further increase, we may see further strengthening of Palladium, if stress levels start to shrink, we should see the continuation of the decline.


Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1144 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
What a beautiful extreme we have here Do I really need to write anything --> the charts tell it all For anyone new here, I’ll explain: the cot extreme is HUGE and if you look at the chart, RR usually reacted to these large cot extreme signals. I’m expecting prices to rally soon.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report36_Rough rice.png Size: 235 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report36_Palladium.png Size: 240 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report36_Soybean Meal.png Size: 262 KB
  • #322
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:53am Sep 15, 2014 5:53am
Very strong Buy Signal on EURUSD on cot and a weekly pin bar, so long any time soon will be great !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_weekly_15_sept_14.JPG Size: 152 KB
  • #323
  • Sep 22, 2014 5:33am Sep 22, 2014 5:33am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 43%, LS – 43%, SS – 34% /
COT Index (3yr.) / C – 82%, LS – 18%, SS – 27% /
Both of our major cot signals this week are very bullish. The change in Traders positions was very large and with large movement, their positions have reached an extreme territory where we need to be cautious. If you look at the chart, you can see how well this currency reacted to these major extremes in the past. I’m expecting price to reach a bottom soon.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1145 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme has grown larger, we’re still waiting for the rally

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C, SS – All Time, LS – 415 report COT extreme /
Incredibly large cot extreme in Soybeans… Looking at the chart, there is no question that we are expecting a bottom, but (!) be careful, they extreme is capable of widening even more, or we may even witness a commercial capitulation. There is little chance for that, but it’s always amongst the possibilities.


All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report37_Soybeans.png Size: 237 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report37_Rough Rice.png Size: 231 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report37_NZD.png Size: 272 KB
  • #324
  • Sep 27, 2014 1:08pm Sep 27, 2014 1:08pm
let me tell you one thing folks. Smart money doesn't form the trends . the market (all its participants) do so as you follow smart money smart money i following the market. so whynot follow the charts (the market)
  • #325
  • Sep 27, 2014 2:38pm Sep 27, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting ericnyamu
let me tell you one thing folks. Smart money doesn't form the trends . the market (all its participants) do so as you follow smart money smart money i following the market. so whynot follow the charts (the market)

You think chart represents the market? So cute.
  • #326
  • Sep 29, 2014 4:09am Sep 29, 2014 4:09am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 56% /
This was a large change is Traders positions, but hey (!), let’s not forget about the cot extreme situation that we were in a few weeks ago… the decline we are witnessing now is a consequence of that extreme. So what I’m trying to say is that we may see prices bounce back up, but the medium/longer term picture still looks bearish.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1146 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme has grown larger, prices have started to rise a bit.

USD Index
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
When we have such an extreme in a market, commercials and large specs holding positions that they have never held before, then I feel a little bit uncomfortable about what to say This picture is so very clear: we have a very large bearish cot signal that will – with high probability, nothing more – end the rally.


All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report38_USD Index.png Size: 257 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report38_Rough Rice.png Size: 235 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report38_Palladium.png Size: 242 KB
  • #327
  • Sep 29, 2014 2:36pm Sep 29, 2014 2:36pm
COT Analysis
Attached Image
  • #328
  • Oct 6, 2014 2:24am Oct 6, 2014 2:24am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 14%, SS – 31% /
COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 85%, LS – 15%, SS – 21% /
The picture has become nice and bullish here in the Mexican Peso: we have a reasonably large change in Traders positions, giving us a bullish cot signal and also we are getting really close All Time extreme levels.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 411, LS – 396 report COT extreme /
The extreme has become HUGE, we should be getting ready for another rally here!

RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C – 64, LS – 211 report COT extreme /
The bullish extreme signal suggests that we should see higher prices soon, but of course the dynamics of last week’s decline should make us cautious with entering the trade.


All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report39_RBOB Gasoline.png Size: 259 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report39_Cotton.png Size: 228 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report39_MXP.png Size: 276 KB
  • #329
  • Oct 13, 2014 3:11am Oct 13, 2014 3:11am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Cocoa
COT Change (52W) / C – 45%, LS – 43%, SS – 28% /
COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 18%, LS – 84% /
The cot change signal is present: a large, bullish signal. Would have been nicer, if we could see it a bit earlier --> prices have already gone up significantly last week. Is there room for more rally? The longer term picture looks more bearish, so it may be a bit riskier to expect further rises… To be honest, I think it’s simply best, if we look towards other markets, where the signs are more clear.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 150, LS – 158 report COT extreme /
The extreme is relatively large (could be much larger) and at a level, where for the last two occasions, prices reacted to the signal. It is a bullish picture.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C – 107, LS – 127 report COT extreme /
I find this market to be very interesting, because the cot report is bearish, although prices are low… If we look at a much longer chart, we can find much larger bearish cot extremes, so if prices start to go higher, there would be room for the extreme to get larger too, thus we could reach a top, where the extreme would seem normal.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report40_Soybean Oil.png Size: 270 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report40_Natural Gas.png Size: 234 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report40_Cocoa.png Size: 249 KB
  • #330
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:09am Oct 20, 2014 6:09am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-400
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, SS – 44% /
COT Extreme / C – 49 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot change signal is negative, Small Speculators extreme situation also… Could we see further decline in prices?

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – 345 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is huge, close to all time levels. This is definitely a warning that prices may not be able to continue their rise for too long. Let’s get prepared for a drop in prices.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 159, LS – 159 report COT extreme /
We have reached a cot extreme level where the last two times prices bottomed out and we could see price rally develop afterwards. This is absolutely amongst the possible outcome of this current cot signal.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report41_Natural Gas.png Size: 237 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report41_Coffee.png Size: 243 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report41_S&P-400.png Size: 230 KB
  • #331
  • Oct 27, 2014 4:24am Oct 27, 2014 4:24am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.



S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 50%, LS – 35, SS – 58% /
The picture is bullish. The large change in Trader’s position, the relative cot extreme here and the more visible, large cot extreme in the Dow support further rally.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / C – 294, LS – 294 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme in orange juice is unquestionably large and showing a very bullish picture. Signals were nice and effective in this market, so I’d say we can really use this signal and consider a long trade.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 184, LS – 180 report COT extreme /
In contrary to OJ, here the extreme is only large in relative terms. We do see much greater extremes in the past, so it’s a bit difficult to tell, whether or not this extreme is capable of stopping the recent decline or not. It may be a wise idea to analyze other energy markets and taking into account the correlation between them.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report42_Natural Gas.png Size: 233 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report42_Orange Juice.png Size: 250 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report42_S&P-500.png Size: 257 KB
  • #332
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:13am Nov 3, 2014 7:13am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 38 /
It’s really only the cot change signal that can affect prices now and of course downwards: we do not have a cot extreme situation at the moment. The last major extreme was the bullish one a few weeks ago and as you can see, it still in effect.

S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS – 317 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
Small Speculators being all time optimistic about the market is always a warning sign

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 185, LS – 181 report COT extreme /
Any questions here? The extreme has been present for a few weeks now and we can see that prices last week managed to rally nicely, so we may have the confirmation needed think seriously about further rallies in natural gas.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report43_Natural Gas.png Size: 233 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report43_S&P-400.png Size: 225 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report43_Soybean Meal.png Size: 258 KB
  • #333
  • Nov 3, 2014 11:46am Nov 3, 2014 11:46am
COT analysis
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT.jpg Size: 123 KB
  • #334
  • Nov 10, 2014 5:33am Nov 10, 2014 5:33am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 27 /
Ok, the change was large, it may draw prices lower in the next few days… What I’m more interested is the long term picture. Prices are high, but we don’t see any indication from the report that we should expect the end of the rally. If you look at small specs here in the Dow, you can see how pessimistic they are about further rallies… I think that’s just a good evidence for us that supports a bullish picture.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / LS – 296 report COT extreme /
Don’t miss out the opportunity lying here! The bullish cot extreme is present and it is unquestionably large. As you can see on the chart, OJ has reacted nicely to cot extreme signals. I think it can be a wonderful trade.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C – All Time, LS – 125, SS - 334 report COT extreme /
Wow, another great market with a beautiful signal! All major participants of the market hold extremely large positions and similarly to OJ, judging by the past, the market is likely going to react to the signal.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report44_NZD.png Size: 265 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report44_Orange Juice.png Size: 250 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report44_Dow Jones-30.png Size: 261 KB
  • #335
  • Nov 24, 2014 4:49am Nov 24, 2014 4:49am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-400
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 29, SS – 15% /
Although S&P-400 made it to the top in the list regarding the size of change in Commercials position, I don’t believe that it was too significant. The cot extreme is not large either, so I wouldn’t think it would too wise to force any serious conclusion here. Let’s just say, it’s one of the typical weeks, when we haven’t got a cot signal.

Natural Gas
COT Index (3yrs) / C – 93%, LS – 0%, SS – 74% /
COT Extreme /LS – 184 report COT extreme /
The bullish cot extreme is still present in Natural Gas (at least on C and LS side --> SS signal seems to be more bearish). Are we going to see a widening of the extreme in the next few weeks? I don’t know… it is not an easy puzzle that’s for sure.

Platinum
COT Extreme /LS – 117 report COT extreme /
Bullish cot extreme. Large? If we look at the past 5-10 years: Yes, but we have seen much greater extreme before. Still, it is a valid sign, that stress levels are getting much higher. Should we jump in on this signal and start buying? Hmmm… Put this piece of information beside the rest of your analysis (traditional TA etc…) and decide. On its own, this extreme wouldn’t push me into such a decision.


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report46_Platinum.png Size: 246 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report46_Natural Gas.png Size: 232 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report46_S&P-400.png Size: 234 KB
  • #336
  • Dec 4, 2014 7:33am Dec 4, 2014 7:33am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review was not updated this week, but here’s my weekly snapshot anyway!

Orange Juice
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 25, SS – 12% /
Large cot change sell signal from the report. Not surprising seeing the nice rise in prices! BTW, isn’t it a beautiful example of cot extreme signal’s effectiveness?
Anyhow… I think that we can expect a bit of decline in the short term, but I wouldn’t be betting on anything long lasting, since we had this huge cot extreme.

Rough Rice
COT Index (3yrs) / C – 98%, LS – 0%, SS – 17% /
COT Extreme /LS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme is huge (All Time in large specs) so the picture is not that difficult to decode Prices have started to increase two weeks ago and this may easily continue in the next couple of weeks!

Crude Oil
COT Extreme /C – 75, LS – 79 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is large and probably getting larger week by week. Pinpointing the end of the decline, even with the help of the cot report is not something easy… But hey (!), we shouldn’t forget that not too long ago, we had a bearish all time cot extreme! So what’s happening now is what we were expecting to happen a few months ago…

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report47_Crude Oil.png Size: 239 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report47_Rough Rice.png Size: 226 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report47_Orange Juice.png Size: 251 KB
  • #337
  • Dec 8, 2014 4:14am Dec 8, 2014 4:14am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 43%, LS – 15, SS – 42% /
The cot change signal is positive, suggesting prices can climb higher in the near future. This is backed by a relative bullish cot extreme (nothing too large, so we are not expecting any major influence from it).

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme /C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Get ready for a bottom! I know… it looks “scary” , but hey (!), look at how MXP reacted to similar extremes in the past!! It’s not gonna be an easy trade, but is definitely worth it!

Copper
COT Extreme /C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
In the last two years, we had similar extremes a few times. Although prices reacted nicely, they couldn’t stay on the rally for too long. I’m not expecting the situation to be any different this time, so even if prices can climb, I wouldn’t be betting on anything long lasting… Nevertheless, it is a great R/R opportunity!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report48_Copper.png Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report48_Mexican Peso.png Size: 269 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report48_Oats.png Size: 242 KB
  • #338
  • Dec 15, 2014 9:44am Dec 15, 2014 9:44am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Lumber
COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS – 31, SS – 15% /
Although the cot change signal is negative (bearish), looking at the longer charts we can see that we are actually not far away (in time and in net contracts also) from significant bullish cot extreme levels. Conclusion: we may expect declining prices short term, but the medium/longer term picture seems to be bullish.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme /C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all time cot extreme has widened more as prices are declining further. Catching the bottom is not easy, but it is pretty obvious that it’s going to happen!

Natural Gas
COT Extreme /C - 191, LS – 191 report COT extreme /
Bullish cot extreme in Natural Gas. We had such extremes a few weeks ago and prices has reacted to it. Now we see prices declining again parallel to the growing stress level in the market. Normal. We may see even greater extremes in the near future!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report49_Natural Gas.png Size: 106 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report49_MXP.png Size: 127 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report49_Lumber.png Size: 120 KB
  • #339
  • Dec 15, 2014 10:00am Dec 15, 2014 10:00am
Bloody good effort all year, Dunstan. Well done and I wish a very Merry Christmas and a peaceful, prosperous New Year from Hong Kong!
  • #340
  • Dec 16, 2014 6:52am Dec 16, 2014 6:52am
Quoting itshamish
Bloody good effort all year, Dunstan. Well done and I wish a very Merry Christmas and a peaceful, prosperous New Year from Hong Kong!
Thanks itshamish for your kind words! I also wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year full of trading successes!

All the best,
Dunstan
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