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  • #4,801
  • Sep 13, 2014 10:58am Sep 13, 2014 10:58am
Quoting njr
I NEVER let a position get 'inverted' - I will roll around a delta around 0.25~0.4ish depending on where I think the market might move. If needed I will re-roll again, etc, etc.....I certainly would not take ANY risk of being assigned which is obviously what could happen if my position goes ITM.
managing losing trades & doing it well one of the hardest things to do in trading and ultimately what separates failure from success. It's best to have a purely mechanical, "line in the sand" approach...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,802
  • Sep 13, 2014 11:11am Sep 13, 2014 11:11am
Quoting njr
Great to see that Vol is coming back to the market. Finally some opportunities and I've recently sold some weekly PUTs in ES mini around 0.04 delta. With Vol climbing the premium is looking reasonable....... I'm still playing cautious given the general market chatter about the impending correction....I wonder what will be the catalyst.....FOMC this coming week and the language used, a statement on when US rates will rise, bad China data published today, geopolitical risk, or something else?????......so many choices. When this market drops in free...
we are definitely in for a good spell of rough weather, njr. I think the FOMC will deliver the mail and the already shaky US indices will drop. With UST's under pressure also and the Eurozone economy on the operating table, the USD will likely be the only safe haven in the storm.

I could be wrong somewhat or wholly, as usual: the UST selloff seen the last couple weeks could have been a temporary shakeout and then would bounce with the USD. And, of course, FOMC might offer nothing new....we'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,803
  • Sep 13, 2014 11:20am Sep 13, 2014 11:20am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} we are definitely in for a good spell of rough weather, njr. I think the FOMC will deliver the mail and the already shaky US indices will drop. With UST's under pressure also and the Eurozone economy on the operating table, the USD will likely be the only safe haven in the storm. I could be wrong somewhat or wholly, as usual: the UST selloff seen the last couple weeks could have been a temporary shakeout and then would bounce with the USD. And, of course, FOMC might offer nothing new....we'll see.
Hey TF

As you say, you "could be wrong somewhat or wholly" but there is definitely one certainty in what you wrote: "we are definitely in for a good spell of rough weather".....It will be a very interesting week....the key is to ensure we can capitalize on the movement where ever it goes
  • #4,804
  • Sep 13, 2014 5:01pm Sep 13, 2014 5:01pm
Hi TF, have interest to get involve into the options world. Can you recommend some trusted binary option brokers?

Thanks in advance for your help.
  • #4,805
  • Sep 13, 2014 11:29pm Sep 13, 2014 11:29pm
UVXY insurance trade, not too bad...in case we get a blow-out FOMC effect...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,806
  • Sep 14, 2014 12:13am Sep 14, 2014 12:13am
(re: TLT): The "taper tantrum" drop in bonds ran May 1, 2013 (May 01 - $124.01) to late August, 2013 ($102.11 - 8/21/13) a $22 drop in 15 weeks, about $2/week at it's worst. The last 2 weeks has seen a $6 drop, or $3/wk. If the FOMC terrifies the markets with the threat of a massive 0.25 bp rate hike sometime next year, we could see $110.xx by the end of the week. If they lay off that noise then we'll get a bounce back above $114...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,807
  • Sep 14, 2014 12:33am Sep 14, 2014 12:33am
http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/09/...ext-weeks.html
"...Speculators in the US 10-year Treasury futures bought into the decline through September 9. During the week they added almost 58k long contracts for a gross position of 440.2k contracts. The gross shorts edged a little higher. The 8.4k contract increase brings the gross short position to 473.5k contracts. The net short position fell to 33.3k contracts from 82.7k. An important question is when will the longs capitulate? We think that the yields are a little more than half way to what may be a new equilibrium (~2.75%)..."

"Yields around the world have risen with US Treasuries (which is why political scientists rather than investment advisers formalized the hypothesis of a G-zero world). European bond yields have risen less, and several emerging markets and Australia experienced larger increases in yields. Generally speaking, in rising interest rate environment, one would expect the credit spreads to widen, with lower credit yields rising more."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,808
  • Sep 14, 2014 1:41am Sep 14, 2014 1:41am
Here's a challenge for any other spread traders: show me your best (i.e., most lucrative with least risk) weekly (or other) credit spreads. I'm not applying any criteria to what "best" may mean, but let me know what it means to you. I will get it started.

To start, I am looking at weeklies. I think equities will continue to be under pressure in the coming week(s), so I am looking for bear call spreads. Generally, I am looking for the short call strike to be outside 1 sigma, at the least. Nothing more than a $5 spread, and the smaller the better.

Well, maybe the richest stocks might do the best, so I will start at the top: PCLN....$0.53 for a 5-day, $5 spread.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,809
  • Edited 2:18am Sep 14, 2014 1:57am | Edited 2:18am
for similar POP, GOOGL is less than PCLN at $0.35; NFLX is same ($0.37 cr) @ 0.88 POP 9/20 $497.50/$492.50
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,810
  • Sep 14, 2014 3:35am Sep 14, 2014 3:35am
Quoting The Fool
I am looking at weeklies. I think equities will continue to be under pressure in the coming week(s), so I am looking for bear call spreads. Generally, I am looking for the short call strike to be outside 1 sigma, at the least. Nothing more than a $5 spread, and the smaller the better. Well, maybe the richest stocks might do the best, so I will start at the top: PCLN....$0.53 for a 5-day, $5 spread.
I'm looking for a set of these that I can enter/exit Thursday - Monday every week, week in/week out, for income....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,811
  • Edited 12:49pm Sep 14, 2014 11:09am | Edited 12:49pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'm looking for a set of these that I can enter/exit Thursday - Monday every week, week in/week out, for income....
5-day $5 spreads on the cheaper names are worthwhile but only marginally, usually <$0.20. I may look at 2-week spreads...

(oops, ADBE has earnings out in the coming week, ORCL too - I would probably look to avoid ER weeks generally. However, doing weekly spreads in the weeks just before the ER will typically be good as the stock price will (usually, but not always) not move hard prior to the ER)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,812
  • Sep 14, 2014 3:03pm Sep 14, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting The Fool
Here's a challenge for any other spread traders: show me your best (i.e., most lucrative with least risk) weekly (or other) credit spreads. I'm not applying any criteria to what "best" may mean, but let me know what it means to you. I will get it started. To start, I am looking at weeklies. I think equities will continue to be under pressure in the coming week(s), so I am looking for bear call spreads. Generally, I am looking for the short call strike to be outside 1 sigma, at the least. Nothing more than a $5 spread, and the smaller the better....
T.F. I'm no good with credit spreads but I'm willing to do a weekly long vertical call spread on XOM tomorrow, a simple long $96 and write $97,

the closing prices is what I have and bar no surprises on the open I should still be able to purchase that spread for 7c debit or less with a potential profit of 1400% profit should it work out, looking to see if crude bounces a bit

XOM Sep 2014 96.000 call (XOM140920C00096000)
-OPR
0.70 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.77(52.38%) 12 Sep 20:59

XOM Sep 2014 97.000 call (XOM140926C00097000)
-OPR
0.63 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.53(45.69%) 12 Sep 20:58
  • #4,813
  • Sep 14, 2014 4:19pm Sep 14, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. I'm no good with credit spreads but I'm willing to do a weekly long vertical call spread on XOM tomorrow, a simple long $96 and write $97
good luck. trying to catch a bounce on crude & related names is dicey play now, imho. USD strength has been weighing on oil and will keep doing that. But I'd bet we see some new bombing runs this week in Syria/Iraq and that could make some volatile moves in oil more likely.

really seems to me this week risk is open to big drops in equities and I am positioning via debit spreads to catch something there.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,814
  • Sep 14, 2014 4:30pm Sep 14, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting Pipstubborn
Hi TF, have interest to get involve into the options world. Can you recommend some trusted binary option brokers? Thanks in advance for your help.
sorry bud, I don't trade binaries - can't help ya
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,815
  • Sep 15, 2014 5:07am Sep 15, 2014 5:07am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. I'm no good with credit spreads but I'm willing to do a weekly long vertical call spread on XOM tomorrow, a simple long $96 and write $97, the closing prices is what I have and bar no surprises on the open I should still be able to purchase that spread for 7c debit or less with a potential profit of 1400% profit should it work out, looking to see if crude bounces a bit XOM Sep 2014 96.000 call (XOM140920C00096000) -OPR 0.70 {image} 0.77(52.38%) 12 Sep 20:59 XOM Sep 2014 97.000 call (XOM140926C00097000) -OPR 0.63 {image} 0.53(45.69%)...
the above I will do but at a lower price as it will open much lower than Fridays close of $95.78 so the same long call spread will be a strike lower, long $95 call write 96 call hopefully for a debit of 7c or lower, we shall see on the opening on XOM
  • #4,816
  • Sep 15, 2014 8:30am Sep 15, 2014 8:30am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} the above I will do but at a lower price as it will open much lower than Fridays close of $95.78 so the same long call spread will be a strike lower, long $95 call write 96 call hopefully for a debit of 7c or lower, we shall see on the opening on XOM
How will you manage a trade like that if XOM rises steadily towards $96?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,817
  • Sep 15, 2014 1:40pm Sep 15, 2014 1:40pm
Looks like the markets are about to become a little more 'fair and efficient'

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...be-allowed-cme

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...s/RA1405-5.pdf
  • #4,818
  • Sep 15, 2014 6:12pm Sep 15, 2014 6:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} How will you manage a trade like that if XOM rises steadily towards $96?
T.F. I took the original long 96 and wrote 97 because XOM opened at 95.73 for a net debit of 10c by the time I got filled, so far I have more than doubled that trade and will leave it open until the end of week or if we get close to $97 then it will force me to close it sooner. XOM WENT AS LOW AS 95.40 BEFORE IT BOUNCED CLOSING AT $96.29
  • #4,819
  • Edited 11:46pm Sep 15, 2014 11:28pm | Edited 11:46pm
bastard Putin wins again. I must brush up on my chess....the pawns, I remember, are expendable ... but queens are supposed to be essentially ruthless? fuck I probably just don't have the brains for it.....

http://news.yahoo.com/us-led-militar...051734958.html

RSX should rally...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,820
  • Sep 15, 2014 11:34pm Sep 15, 2014 11:34pm
YHOO firing up the jets
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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