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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #16,021
  • Sep 11, 2014 3:33am Sep 11, 2014 3:33am
114 pips currently on USDJPY. Hope it continues to go higher. I will hold it for a while.
  • #16,022
  • Sep 11, 2014 4:55am Sep 11, 2014 4:55am
Quoting EuroTrader37
114 pips currently on USDJPY. Hope it continues to go higher. I will hold it for a while.

That's a good trade, if you look at UJ monthly it has potential to 110.xx or at least 108.xx
  • #16,023
  • Sep 11, 2014 5:35am Sep 11, 2014 5:35am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} That's a good trade, if you look at UJ monthly it has potential to 110.xx or at least 108.xx
Agreed. My target is current shy under 110.xx. It's 109.7
  • #16,024
  • Edited 7:27am Sep 11, 2014 7:16am | Edited 7:27am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} That's a good trade, if you look at UJ monthly it has potential to 110.xx or at least 108.xx
Agree, and yes good trade EuroTrader.
We have another buildup for higher on dollar:
http://prntscr.com/4lsouw
Actually in 2 years that i trade and all miles of historical charts i went trough i have never seen so many consequentive bull or bear buildups in sequence ever that are happening on USD since April, but especially last 2 months.

As i post gold just broke 1250 demand.

AUDCHF
http://prntscr.com/4lsq4f

UJ
http://prntscr.com/4lsqx1
  • #16,025
  • Sep 11, 2014 9:35am Sep 11, 2014 9:35am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Hm i have to dissagree here personally. I do not trade highest possibility of direction, nor anything mathematical or statistical in my setups. I trade only what i see on chart from PA. Chart was telling bullish buildup in the making as it happened as UJ went higher. From daily it makes sense to short it for pullback, but if lower TFs say up, it should go higher. For UJ to turn bearish 106.75 has to be tested at least. EDIT: UJ is being pushed on upside not just trough USD strenght but also trough JPY weakness and GBP strenght trough GJ...

every decision is based on probs, ...
if you trade what you see on your charts from PA what is it? Isn't it probs?
Or do you trade the holy grail?
FXcube
  • #16,026
  • Sep 11, 2014 11:08am Sep 11, 2014 11:08am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} every decision is based on probs, ... if you trade what you see on your charts from PA what is it? Isn't it probs? Or do you trade the holy grail? FXcube
I see what you mean. Its just that for me stoch, cci, fibs are not in similar view of probability that PA is as they do not provide structure to who is really in control. They are plain probability if you go against trend with them. If you want to go against trend thats fine, but personally for me if i do that i want to be at least sure that i am going with stronger portion or at least that oposite side is having weakness. Not sure if i explained it well, its kinda hard to lay it down. In the end obviously if your method works longer term thats fine in the end it really doesnt matter as long as you can make profits, just saying from my perspective on what makes me open trades. Just saying in the end there is difference on what terms you define your probability for entry from technical perspective.
  • #16,027
  • Sep 11, 2014 12:11pm Sep 11, 2014 12:11pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ards-civil-war

"EU spring"? Too early too tell, too little info what is behind mass protests, but it wouldnt be surprise to see real "spring" protests in EU as opose to arab spring.
  • #16,028
  • Sep 11, 2014 12:54pm Sep 11, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} I see what you mean. Its just that for me stoch, cci, fibs are not in similar view of probability that PA is as they do not provide structure to who is really in control. They are plain probability if you go against trend with them. If you want to go against trend thats fine, but personally for me if i do that i want to be at least sure that i am going with stronger portion or at least that oposite side is having weakness. Not sure if i explained it well, its kinda hard to lay it down. In the end obviously if your method...
My sentiments exactly!
FXcube
  • #16,029
  • Edited 5:22am Sep 12, 2014 4:07am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Agree, and yes good trade EuroTrader. We have another buildup for higher on dollar: http://prntscr.com/4lsouw Actually in 2 years that i trade and all miles of historical charts i went trough i have never seen so many consequentive bull or bear buildups in sequence ever that are happening on USD since April, but especially last 2 months. As i post gold just broke 1250 demand. AUDCHF http://prntscr.com/4lsq4f UJ http://prntscr.com/4lsqx1
All worked out. AUDCHF target reached, UJ went higher as expected as no key bear levels were touched. Dollar keeps building.

New charts:
GU, key level to watch, if broken i am starting to build shorts towards 18th:
http://prntscr.com/4m28n7

EJ looks like further up
http://prntscr.com/4m28wg

GBPNZD
http://prntscr.com/4m295p


MH 17 report was just published day ago, seems like that aircrash investigation just discovered new style of conclusion making. If you see jagged piece in tail of plane, that is enough to conclude cause of downing, if there is hole and decompresion from fuselage tearing thats enough to conclude downing, but if there are bullet holes going trough planes hydraulic system that cannot be cause of downing.-homer simpson reaction: duh.
  • #16,030
  • Sep 12, 2014 8:11am Sep 12, 2014 8:11am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} All worked out. AUDCHF target reached, UJ went higher as expected as no key bear levels were touched. Dollar keeps building. New charts: GU, key level to watch, if broken i am starting to build shorts towards 18th: http://prntscr.com/4m28n7 EJ looks like further up http://prntscr.com/4m28wg GBPNZD http://prntscr.com/4m295p MH 17 report was just published day ago, seems like that aircrash investigation just discovered new style of conclusion making. If you see jagged piece in tail of plane, that is enough...
EJ, GN done, +48 pips together. Hit BE SL on two GN longs before it bounced, would had almost 100 pips if that would not happen. Somethimes its better not to place BE especially if key level is very close, rather just placing SL heh.

GA
http://prntscr.com/4m43sz

But really honestly, i have never seen so many bull buildups across all pairs, especially last 3 days they are poping up even more, its like noone is even willing to sell tops or simply there is just massive buying into them.

http://prntscr.com/4m44dl
http://prntscr.com/4m44m2
http://prntscr.com/4m44ts
http://prntscr.com/4m4522
http://prntscr.com/4m4582
  • #16,031
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:24am Sep 12, 2014 10:24am
will the channel get respect ?

EU 2h TF


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_2 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 63 KB
  • #16,032
  • Sep 12, 2014 11:56am Sep 12, 2014 11:56am
Quoting infinitus
will the channel get respect ? EU 2h TF {image}
good question ???
I can see a larger channel on D..Chart..
I was watching this...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Captura de ecra de 2014-09-12 19:55:37.png Size: 163 KB
  • #16,033
  • Sep 12, 2014 12:38pm Sep 12, 2014 12:38pm
Quoting infinitus
will the channel get respect ? EU 2h TF {image}
Hm at moment not much bull signals yet, if 2970 is tested it should give more clues, but however aim is on downside, two bear lines, if lower one is tested i think we will start to sink bellow 2900 again.
http://prntscr.com/4m6wyw
  • #16,034
  • Sep 12, 2014 12:49pm Sep 12, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} EJ, GN done, +48 pips together. Hit BE SL on two GN longs before it bounced, would had almost 100 pips if that would not happen. Somethimes its better not to place BE especially if key level is very close, rather just placing SL heh. GA http://prntscr.com/4m43sz But really honestly, i have never seen so many bull buildups across all pairs, especially last 3 days they are poping up even more, its like noone is even willing to sell tops or simply there is just massive buying into them. http://prntscr.com/4m44dl http://prntscr.com/4m44m2...
GA done, +20 pips. I hope markets stay like that for while, this is getting really easy.
  • #16,035
  • Sep 12, 2014 1:22pm Sep 12, 2014 1:22pm
Quoting infinitus
will the channel get respect ? EU 2h TF {image}
GREAT Chart.. MMM USDX 4 hr?? looks a bit dickey to me.. just my opnion of course..
  • #16,036
  • Edited 2:52pm Sep 12, 2014 2:41pm | Edited 2:52pm
GA wants to climb more, USD too, GBP too.

Forexcube i hope you have closed your shorts, there is no evidence for market to pullback on JPY shorts.

All goes as planed, JPYs had minor bump on top of supply area, but overall bull trend to resume on break which it did happen. AUDCHF reached bottom of target 2 area so now staying flat on it for a bit. Gold meanwhile setting up to break 1230 lower, target is 1200ish area.
Here comes the power of manipulation, which i pointed out on previous posts, that most gold bugs tend to just ignore gold manipulation (due to obvious reasons, or in few cases due to dis information) which is major price discovery mechanism in gold over past few years. Even that loading of physical longs on Chinese and Indian side is massive it cannot compete with Comex shorts, so therefore technicals have always priority, only in short term busts of geo-conflicts price effect on gold price.

As for market structures you can see clearly from thic screen wthat i mean by how easy market is set up in last 30 to 60 days
http://prntscr.com/4m8h99
  • #16,037
  • Edited 5:45pm Sep 12, 2014 5:26pm | Edited 5:45pm
Hello to The Club!

Reasons why can the pair at least bounce and why I think it can be even a long term trend change:

-Bollinger
-CCI (14)
-Stochastic (8,3,3)
-Last bullish channels on higher time frames (this is stupid, there are more, but last near bullish channels)

+ a very strong bull signal on weekly time frame in one of my favourite system (Note: new low would not invalidate the signal, but it's dangerous to not respect the low, because this signal works with ~70% probability - so we have 30% to fail big)

So I'm thinking on further buy at least for short term.

PS: Last time I made bullish analysis through the weekend, the pair opened with the gap down.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.09.13. EurUsd Monthly.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.09.13. EurUsd Monthly 2.png Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.09.13. EurUsd Weekly.png Size: 49 KB
f(z)=z2+c
  • #16,038
  • Sep 12, 2014 6:13pm Sep 12, 2014 6:13pm
I love this Gold count from Daneric

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-EAQs0rkm5...s1600/gold.png
  • #16,039
  • Sep 12, 2014 6:22pm Sep 12, 2014 6:22pm
Daneric on UDX

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ONUGHE6wO...600/dollar.png
  • #16,040
  • Sep 12, 2014 6:40pm Sep 12, 2014 6:40pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
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