Trading the 'FAKE or BREAK'

I've had another good week but I ain't been around today so just checked my results...

EU still doing well
GU missed TP by about 5pips. Would have give +260pips off one trade with 2nd trade at +160 and still running
EJ out for BE
AU out for a small loss
NzU out for BE
UJ out for BE
AN went just shy of TP but is heading down (at BE)

I also sold the 'breaky' on GJ earlier. I put a 1:1 RR. if i'd been around i would have put to BE (which is where price is now)

some of the biggest sunday gaps i've ever seen today at the open. around 160 on gchf and gj.

my GJ tp got hit straight off for +80 (pic above)
my GU tp's both hit for +258 and +208

great start.

..well my UCad trade from post #9 has started to come good up about +50 SL to BE in case this pulls back again
ANz pulled back from a good trade to BE
just took half of my AU fakey for +72, for the rest SL to +12



I have a pending sell on 'breaky' EJ at 136.33
.....And GJ (below)



...thinking about a sell on 'fakey' EG at .7987
....also thinking of selling GChf at 1.5100 on pullback to 'breaky' line but the sunday gap is a concern

...oh and missed UJ breaky at 105.500

From above post..

just took three quarters of my trade off the long running UCad trade at +80 pips. TP in place for free bet.



AU hit TP (pic on post above) for +95 pip. could have got a lot more from this but a number of 'breaky' line below and was unsure of a bounce. Anyway in the pic below we have a major 'breaky' point on AU so i have pending order waiting for a re-entry.



......I entered the GChf trade i mentioned above. bit of a 'no brainer' to me after the sunday gap. hit perfectly. I've just closed enough at +50 to cover my SL so a free bet, looking for about 100pips.

may ease back on trading as i'm Already close to +500pips this week

put a pending 'breaky' on NzU, going against it is the rsi is oversold. not had the best of luck on this pair lately

NzU trade now on (post #25

AU now on (post #24)

GU looks close to a 'breaky' at 1.6055

AN has pulled below support, trend is up, looking for a 'fakey' if price goes back above 1.1131


..................off topic. On the EJ i have a sell order at 137.72 and on ECad at 1.4310....WHY? it's a strategy i use and have not seen before. I call it 'the big candle return'. Basically when a big candle happens due to news I find the price often returns to its origin only to fall back or up again. Pic below are examples..

not much to report..Euro and Gbp seem to be recovering well from recent drops on most pair. hopefully this will put us back in line to where the markets were befor rates cut and sunday gap....

so tempted to sell the GJ from here.

also starting to regretting missing the UJ 'breaky'

EJ trade from last post in play. would have been in regardless as it performed a nice 'fakey' too.

AU trade running nicely. tightened SL.

GU bounced off the 1.6055 breaky line again!!

new 'fakey' EG.



.......However 4hr RSI looks good.

some big employment news from Aussi land made me realize that i had 2 bets in opposite direction, both in post #26. So I moved my AU sell to BE (which got stopped out) while my ANz buy flew up. Just took half at +80 ( the rest has a SL of 30 and a tp of 220 for now). it was all about playing it safe, although i will re-enter a SELL on AU if it resists .9200.

didn't take long to decide to jump back in on AU as it struggle to climb.

looking at the AU daily from afar I wonder if we are destined for a lower low?? it would be weeks away but could we see A break below .8660??? just thinking out loud!

the GBP has had a great rally since it's drop and gap last week. GJ is now at a 'fakey level if it pulls back, so sell order at 173.66. Doesn't mean a great deal but it echo's my current thoughts...........

from fxnews.....The publication of an opinion poll for the Daily Record yesterday that shows a 6-point lead for the ‘No’ camp in the Scottish referendum proved the catalyst for a correction to recent sterling weakness, notes SocGen.
"This morning’s press is full of editorials and commentary but the markets are going to be hyper-sensitive to any polling between now and next Thursday," SocGen adds.
"The latest RICS housing data were soft, but that’s not going to attract any attention," SocGen notes.
In line with this view, SocGen expects GBP/USD rally-sellers to appear while filling the gap is underway as the pair could drift towards last Friday’s low of 1.6324.

Hello, you posts are amazing, I am learning a lot from your "Fake-Breakout" Stop orders where you try to put it away from some Trouble Area. But I admit I quite dont understand the AUD/NZD and EUR/JPY trade...

I also keep a diary of my trades, but I have included more information:
Why I took the trade, Date, how was Trade management, RR, Risk, Emotion, Trend, Emotions, News.
Because you will see few month later from now on, you will not remember why you took those trades, what was the context so they will not make any sense anymore...


Haha, I have also found that, this is part of my strategy and I usually target the opposite of those big "impulsive" candles, everyone should READ THIS POOOST !!! It usually is a good target that make more sense than "Fixed amount of pips Target".

Stay Organised !! This diary will bring you many benefits

Hi Chan and welcome.

post #30 ANz trade was quite simple. we have an up trend. Price broke the support, we it went back through it was a 'fakey'. Aussie news speed the trade up so I took some profit.

EJ tade in post #28 we had the trend up, and price briefly break resistance and pullback 'fakey'. RSI was oversold and we had reached the top of the big candle which will often fall again.....however on this trade it looks like the trend may be changing, we'll see next week.

I've been out today (and tonight) have some trades and update to do over the weekend.

busy few days out enjoying myself..

here are some updates

AU sell +150 and running.
NU is +80 and running
EG is +30 and running
.........all SL at BE

new entry.. UJ buy 'breaky' at 107.12 and UCad...



hedging bets on possible trend changes EJ and GJ





looking for entries on...

EU sell on fakey (happening now)
EC sell on fakey
GU fakey sell under .6200
AN buy fakey above .1102

..happy pipping.

EJ hedge just closed for a few pips profit

being very cautious this week with the scotish referendum closing in.

NU still going, +70 now. SL to BE
AU trade close. when it bounced off 9000 the first time i made that my TP. it hit last night to give me +199 pips
UJ is having a breather
EG SL hit for small profit
GChf eventually went into profit but closed for tiny loss/BE............note it pulled to 50fib and bounced back, could be changing mid term direction and joining long term direction long...again scot referendum dependent

from above.............
looking for entries on...

EU sell on fakey (happening now)..........should enter short but will wait
EC sell on fakey..................................entered up +80 SL to BE at .4337
GU fakey sell under .6200.......................should be entering now but will wait
AN buy fakey above .1102.....................just entered

got to be happy with my decisions today..from above



NU still going, +70 now. SL to BE closed at BE
AU trade close. when it bounced off 9000 the first time i made that my TP. it hit last night to give me +199 pips would be 100 pips down
UJ is having a breather moving up
EG SL hit for small profit
GChf eventually went into profit but closed for tiny loss/BE............note it pulled to 50fib and bounced back, could be changing mid term direction and joining long term direction long...again scot referendum dependent would be negative again


EU sell on fakey (happening now)..........should enter short but will wait nothing happening
EC sell on fakey.............................. ....entered up +80 SL to BE at .4337 up +115 (locked in +65 pips)
GU fakey sell under .6200.......................should be entering now but will wait would be -100 pips now
AN buy fakey above .1102.....................just entered in profit


.....i wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce up in the UCad around here .0973, but i'll wait

not much to report. my GJ hedge worked well. When trading medium term trend against the long term trend often the medium trend will change to once again line up with the long term trend. it appears GJ EJ GChf could be doing just this and this has lead me to either loose the trade or try hedging it, which i've done ending in a small profit.




This week we hear from the Fed, find out if Scotland opts to cut its ties with England and learn if the Alibaba IPO lives up to the hype.
It's time to be careful or stupid (with the hope it works out : ). So i'm placing tight stops/or BE on existing bets and i've done a double entry on some Gbp pair. Basicaly i've bought and sold at the same point. The theory behind this is that when a market spike, rallies or drops massively at some point it will pullback and take a breath. 'hopefully' i'll be able to catch the rally and exit the trade which was in the right direction, then the 'breath/pullback' and close the one in the wrong direction leaving a profit.

As mentioned above we've had Fed news (scot and alibaba to come) so i've been busy and have entered a few trades, which so far have been good...

I entered the EU sell fakey mentioned in #post 37/38 and exited with a good quick profit (a bit premature it seems)

The UCad rally came but I didn't enter #post 38

ECad going well some +188 pips up, so i've closed half

UJ is starting to motor and is +150 up but i'm looking more to add with a target of 300.

still in ANz but looks more likely to close for a loss of 25 pips

i've entered a few trades around 139.35 on EJ 'breaky'

......and this EG entry