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USD Rally

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 24, 2006 5:47pm Jul 24, 2006 5:47pm
1) Equity Rally
2) USD Rally
3) Commodity Bounce off lows following equity optimism
4) Peace Talks
5) FOMC
6) IRAN/SYRIA/North Korea
7) Saudi with Bush
8) Armageddon?

Looking at everything this is a countertrend rally in USD, just go with it.

LONG USD/JPY
SHORT EUR/USD
SHORT GBP/USD
Price is the only indicator.
  • #2
  • Jul 24, 2006 5:51pm Jul 24, 2006 5:51pm
=) look what throwing a few yards at the pairs can do to them.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #3
  • Jul 24, 2006 5:55pm Jul 24, 2006 5:55pm
The USD highs will be test in asian and early european sessions. Fasten your seatbelts.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #4
  • Jul 24, 2006 6:11pm Jul 24, 2006 6:11pm
keep an eye on the dollar index.. when its approaches..89 get out of your position trade.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #5
  • Jul 24, 2006 6:15pm Jul 24, 2006 6:15pm
Where can we get quotes on the dollar index?
  • #6
  • Jul 24, 2006 6:18pm Jul 24, 2006 6:18pm
Nybot
Price is the only indicator.
  • #7
  • Jul 24, 2006 6:25pm Jul 24, 2006 6:25pm
the dollar index time point is for the intermediate term traders.. could take a week to get there.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #8
  • Jul 24, 2006 6:42pm Jul 24, 2006 6:42pm
Quoting Spectre2006
The USD highs will be test in asian and early european sessions. Fasten your seatbelts.
Hello Spectre 2006,

Your insights are very interesting and frequently very accurate. Keep up the good work.

From that statement, should I assume that what you mean is that cable and euro will crash and dollar/yen and swissie will go up like rockets? That would not actually surprise me.

I had been assuming a low for cable of 1.82 to 1.83. At least I thought so this morning, but with cable still hovering around 1.85, I am beginning to doubt its ability to accomplish that, although it might over a few days.

There was a nice 2 part drop in cable this morning and then a 61.8% retracement. Stupid me who usually expects retracements (which usually do not occur while I am waiting for them), well this morning I was not prepared for it. Dumb, dumb, dumb.

You seem to have a good grasp of the current economic doings, what are you expecting cable to do? Am I even in the correct stadium? Thanks.
  • #9
  • Jul 24, 2006 6:43pm Jul 24, 2006 6:43pm
GBP about to drop a 100 pips or more.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #10
  • Jul 24, 2006 6:47pm Jul 24, 2006 6:47pm
japanese bankers taking it to.. 18390
Price is the only indicator.
  • #11
  • Jul 24, 2006 6:48pm Jul 24, 2006 6:48pm
I don't see why the USD would rally. All pairs IMO will range till new data suggesting otherwise is released. I think its best to wait.
  • #12
  • Jul 24, 2006 6:50pm Jul 24, 2006 6:50pm
although the 1.8500-1.8460 range should be watched closely.
  • #13
  • Jul 24, 2006 6:59pm Jul 24, 2006 6:59pm
Quoting Spectre2006
GBP about to drop a 100 pips or more.
Hold on there pardna,

I thought you were bullish on cable because yesterday you predicted cable to hit 1.96??

Or are you referring to the daily cable fluctuation when you predict this 100 point drop??

Thanks for the clarity.
  • #14
  • Jul 24, 2006 7:20pm Jul 24, 2006 7:20pm
Quoting Spectre2006
1) Equity Rally
2) USD Rally
3) Commodity Bounce off lows following equity optimism
4) Peace Talks
5) FOMC
6) IRAN/SYRIA/North Korea
7) Saudi with Bush
8) Armageddon?

Looking at everything this is a countertrend rally in USD, just go with it.

LONG USD/JPY
SHORT EUR/USD
SHORT GBP/USD
Hold on again there pardna,

On July 24th you said the following in a thread you started:

"People are going to sell the dollar, as the august FOMC meeting approaches, sell on rumor and buy on fact. You will see the dollar trend lower and profit taking will occur once the spike occurs that day, the moves with counter the news the following days."

I remember this because I agreed the dollar will weaken over the next few months, due to November's elections. FOMC must stop raising rates prior to the elections, in my opinion. Now you're saying the dollar will strengthen?

Have you changed your position Spectre?? Please advise.
<!-- / message -->
  • #15
  • Jul 24, 2006 7:42pm Jul 24, 2006 7:42pm
My notions only hold so much weight, price action dictates this trade, unless proven otherwise.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #16
  • Jul 24, 2006 7:46pm Jul 24, 2006 7:46pm
Quoting Spectre2006
My notions only hold so much weight, price action dictates this trade, unless proven otherwise.
Perhaps you should include that disclaimer on all your posts.
  • #17
  • Jul 24, 2006 7:52pm Jul 24, 2006 7:52pm
Its much easier moving with the flock then against it. My notion of huge bull run in gbp is still there. But ignoring second per second price action can take me out of the game. As a trader, I have two models, and shift between both given the sec per sec price action.

A seasoned FX trader should realize how fluid the market can be. Maybe this price action is secondary to a impending news event.

Chris
Price is the only indicator.
  • #18
  • Jul 24, 2006 8:56pm Jul 24, 2006 8:56pm
Quoting Spectre2006
Its much easier moving with the flock then against it. My notion of huge bull run in gbp is still there. But ignoring second per second price action can take me out of the game. As a trader, I have two models, and shift between both given the sec per sec price action.

A seasoned FX trader should realize how fluid the market can be. Maybe this price action is secondary to a impending news event.

Chris
True indeed, true indeed.

But I suspect many reading and writing in this forum are not necessarily "seasoned". Many are looking for someone to shed a light on this dark Forex path. So when you issue an unequivocal forecast for a bearish dollar, then flip bullish within 24 hours, you can create confusion in the minds of the less seasoned.

That's why I stand behind my statement on July 8th, paraphrased here: The US government wants us to believe there's no inflation so the FOMC won't raise interest rates, thus weakening USD. July PPI and CPI will infer there's "no inflation" because November elections are near so rising interest rates are not good this time of year. Consequently, I believe there'll be no interest rate hike in August.

I said that on July 8th before PPI and CPI came out; that's my story and I'm sticking to it. And they, the government, still want us to believe there's no inflation, going to great lengths to show even though the headline CPI rose this month, the core CPI remained steady.

Duh!! Somebody in Washington thinks the American people are just plain stupid. I think they got it backwards.

Just information; not a recommendation.
  • #19
  • Jul 24, 2006 10:19pm Jul 24, 2006 10:19pm
price action did a 180 now.. dollar bearish
risk reward favors bears by a factor of 4-5
Price is the only indicator.
  • #20
  • Last Post: Jul 24, 2006 11:19pm Jul 24, 2006 11:19pm
gdnite everyone. Hope it helped.
Price is the only indicator.
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