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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

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  • Post #4,701
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  • Sep 7, 2014 12:50pm Sep 7, 2014 12:50pm
  •  agagukalex
  • | Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Member | 437 Posts
Hi Panoramia , i am on forex factory since at least 6 years , and i went over the same road that some of the retail traders went true !! (i guess)
Finally , i am going over the thread and there is a lot of information here . I am a supply and demand trader and i was still searching for info , and i almost felt on the floor when i saw all the energy you spent here to share your experience with others . Thank you a million times for that !! have a nice day were ever you are !!
Alex
 
 
  • Post #4,702
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2014 4:05am Sep 8, 2014 4:05am
  •  panoramia
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,539 Posts
Quoting agagukalex
Disliked
Hi Panoramia , i am on forex factory since at least 6 years , and i went over the same road that some of the retail traders went true !! (i guess) Finally , i am going over the thread and there is a lot of information here . I am a supply and demand trader and i was still searching for info , and i almost felt on the floor when i saw all the energy you spent here to share your experience with others . Thank you a million times for that !! have a nice day were ever you are !! Alex
Ignored
Greetings from Spain Alex, thanks a lot for your kind message and support. Yes, lot of work here to try and help people undestand supply and demand concepts. I'm always here to support anybody that has questions/doubts about it, no message is left unanswered, but even like that most won't post any charts. That's life though

Take your time to go through the thread, there are some good nuggest for those that think and believe that supply and demand is the way to go!
Have a great day!
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
 
 
  • Post #4,703
  • Quote
  • Edited 5:57am Sep 8, 2014 4:14am | Edited 5:57am
  •  panoramia
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,539 Posts
Want to post a long trade I got triggered on EUR/GBP. Price is very low in the MN curve, retesting the MN demand zone, created a WK demand imbalance, retested it and then creasted a brand new D1 demand zone. There were 2 entries, I took the second and latest one). Hopefully it will run a bit in my favour.

Brand new D1 imbalances being created too low in the MN curve is what we call confirmation trade. We wait for those imbalances to happen and we trade them as they "confirm" there are willing buyers in the zone.

The chart displays the bigger timeframe zones in the shape of colored horizontal lines depicting the bigger timeframe's demand zones drawn by the rectangle reader indicator.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 318 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
 
 
  • Post #4,704
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  • Sep 8, 2014 4:04pm Sep 8, 2014 4:04pm
  •  Psych0F0x
  • | Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member | 13 Posts
Quoting panoramia
Disliked
Want to post a long trade I got triggered on EUR/GBP. Price is very low in the MN curve, retesting the MN demand zone, created a WK demand imbalance, retested it and then creasted a brand new D1 demand zone. There were 2 entries, I took the second and latest one). Hopefully it will run a bit in my favour. Brand new D1 imbalances being created too low in the MN curve is what we call confirmation trade. We wait for those imbalances to happen and we trade them as they "confirm" there are willing buyers in the zone. The chart displays the bigger timeframe...
Ignored
Thanks for sharing that trade. It's great confidence building to see the teacher share a trade that I took too
 
 
  • Post #4,705
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  • Sep 9, 2014 6:45pm Sep 9, 2014 6:45pm
  •  Solomon1a
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 196 Posts
hello alfonso and fellow traders, today i shorted eurzar but my sl got hit, i analyzed and couldnt find that which rule i missing? charts listed below:

weekly down
daily down

weekly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: weklyez.jpg
Size: 127 KB


Daily:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: dailyez.jpg
Size: 168 KB


H4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: eurzarh4.jpg
Size: 160 KB
 
 
  • Post #4,706
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  • Sep 9, 2014 6:58pm Sep 9, 2014 6:58pm
  •  lobogabor
  • | Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member | 138 Posts
Hi, I just find a vulnerability in this whole system, and the logic, which of course look great...
- I get involved in losing trade, very easily, when sup/dem is hit... then of course I lose
- The good "set and forget" trades, usually do not get to the entry point due to a nice trending, except for the ones which can compensate me, and make me feel good... BUT... that is rather exceptional..
Any experience with this? Any thoughts about this?
Tnx
 
 
  • Post #4,707
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  • Sep 9, 2014 7:13pm Sep 9, 2014 7:13pm
  •  aprilnparker
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 48 Posts
Quoting Solomon1a
Disliked
hello alfonso and fellow traders, today i shorted eurzar but my sl got hit, i analyzed and couldnt find that which rule i missing? charts listed below: weekly down daily down weekly: {image} Daily: {image} H4: {image}
Ignored
Hi Solomon1a,

It looks like you are too low in the Monthly Curve. Price hit a monthly zone then rallied. Once price hits a demand zone all shorts should be excited. Do you have a monthly chart?

April
 
 
  • Post #4,708
  • Quote
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:28am Sep 10, 2014 4:28am
  •  Trader555
  • | Joined Jul 2014 | Status: Member | 58 Posts
Hi Alfonso and fellow traders,

A question - would you say my assessment of the NZDUSD monthly trend is correct according to the rules?

Here's my thinking: -

1. There are two obvious recent valleys.
2. Valley 1 took out the high at A.
3. Valley 2 took out the high at B.
4. I can therefore connect Valley 1 & 2 with a trend line, since they took out highs A & B respectively, to give me the result of monthly trend UP.
5. Unless I've made a mistake, the CP is actually a CP as marked on the chart (?)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: NZDUSDMonthly.png
Size: 74 KB


If I've missed something, please let me know.

Thanks for your help.

Trader555
 
 
  • Post #4,709
  • Quote
  • Sep 10, 2014 4:37pm Sep 10, 2014 4:37pm
  •  Solomon1a
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 196 Posts
Quoting aprilnparker
Disliked
{quote} Hi Solomon1a, It looks like you are too low in the Monthly Curve. Price hit a monthly zone then rallied. Once price hits a demand zone all shorts should be excited. Do you have a monthly chart? April
Ignored
hello, i am trading swing setups, thats why i did not look at MN chart, but you are right brother that price hit the monthly fresh demand, which is also daily and weekly nested demand area,.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: ezmn.jpg
Size: 53 KB
 
 
  • Post #4,710
  • Quote
  • Sep 11, 2014 4:19am Sep 11, 2014 4:19am
  •  panoramia
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,539 Posts
Quoting Trader555
Disliked
Hi Alfonso and fellow traders, A question - would you say my assessment of the NZDUSD monthly trend is correct according to the rules? Here's my thinking: - 1. There are two obvious recent valleys. 2. Valley 1 took out the high at A. 3. Valley 2 took out the high at B. 4. I can therefore connect Valley 1 & 2 with a trend line, since they took out highs A & B respectively, to give me the result of monthly trend UP. 5. Unless I've made a mistake, the CP is actually a CP as marked on the chart (?) {image} If I've missed something, please let me know....
Ignored
The lower one is the valid TL my friend. Why? The upper TL you drew is using a MN CP as second point to connect the TL, we don't use CPs to draw TLs, only if we have 3 or more. So the less steep one (lower) TL is the valid one!

Hope that makes sense!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
 
 
  • Post #4,711
  • Quote
  • Sep 11, 2014 5:31am Sep 11, 2014 5:31am
  •  Trader555
  • | Joined Jul 2014 | Status: Member | 58 Posts
Quoting panoramia
Disliked
{quote} The lower one is the valid TL my friend. Why? The upper TL you drew is using a MN CP as second point to connect the TL, we don't use CPs to draw TLs, only if we have 3 or more. So the less steep one (lower) TL is the valid one! Hope that makes sense! Alfonso
Ignored
Thank you Alfonso - I really appreciate your help.

Have a great day.

Trader555
 
 
  • Post #4,712
  • Quote
  • Sep 11, 2014 10:11pm Sep 11, 2014 10:11pm
  •  lobogabor
  • | Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member | 138 Posts
Quoting lobogabor
Disliked
Hi, I just find a vulnerability in this whole system, and the logic, which of course look great... - I get involved in losing trade, very easily, when sup/dem is hit... then of course I lose - The good "set and forget" trades, usually do not get to the entry point due to a nice trending, except for the ones which can compensate me, and make me feel good... BUT... that is rather exceptional.. Any experience with this? Any thoughts about this? Tnx
Ignored
Hey all the honest guys on the forum, does NO ANSWER mean I am the only one finding this difficulty/problem with the strategy? No cure for me?
Tnx!!!
 
 
  • Post #4,713
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:44pm Sep 11, 2014 10:19pm | Edited 10:44pm
  •  lobogabor
  • | Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member | 138 Posts
Quoting lobogabor
Disliked
Hi, for those who want to backtest in MT4, here is a good program helping big time to do so: Download � Simple Forex Tester When installing it, the only thing might be with the new MT4 build, one has to copy the files from the C/programs/MT directory to the C/user/.......roaming...../MT4 directory, whatever opens when in the MT4 file menu clicking the Open Data Folder sub-menu point It is possible to open as many entries in the MT4 strategy tester, as you want {image} it is really the best...
Ignored
I am testing strategies in MT4 (View/strategy tester) with the Expert Advisor "SimpleFXTester_v2" , and so far so great, I suggest to all of you..
Multi time frame, all MT4 indis are available..
All for free as expected in MT4 anyways
I hope it helps earning money without spending it first, for similar programs or training - just test yourself with the forex / FX / trading strategy of yours, how successful you can be .
Not a supply demand topic, but more examples with pics, how it looks like, are here in post No.: 3229
http://www.forex-tsd.com/harmonic-tr...tml#post699968
Really, really good one, use it till it is free!
 
 
  • Post #4,714
  • Quote
  • Sep 12, 2014 12:16am Sep 12, 2014 12:16am
  •  Psych0F0x
  • | Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Member | 13 Posts
Quick question on NZDUSD:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: 2014-09-12 00_07_26-9429615_ OANDA - MetaTrader - Demo Account - [NZDUSD,Daily].png
Size: 105 KB

We're inside MN demand and price already took out a nested daily CP demand. Am I correct to assume that we have to wait for price to react to the next D1 demand (confirmation trade longs) or let it break through the entire MN zone before shorting? Or is there the option of having faith in the downtrend that since price broke through the first CP demand within the MN demand we can short WHILE we're still in MN demand? (I'm assuming the first two options are corret, but I just want to double check just in case there's an opportunity here and I actually SHOULDN'T be sitting on my hands)
 
 
  • Post #4,715
  • Quote
  • Sep 12, 2014 11:48am Sep 12, 2014 11:48am
  •  Solomon1a
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 196 Posts
hello alfonso and fellow traders, hope you all have a nice weekend, I was trying analyze the NZDCHF last night which i found in complicated situation, the monthly is UP, weekly is Holding UP (near to break) and Daily trend is broken but have not closed below TL. my question is that as monthly us up and weekly is up and daily printed supply, so is it the valid supply to take short in countertrend? and i can not set and forget on that supply to take shorts? charts below:

Monthly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: nzdchfmn.jpg
Size: 87 KB


Weekly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: nzdchfwk.jpg
Size: 153 KB


Daily:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: nzdchfday.jpg
Size: 130 KB
 
 
  • Post #4,716
  • Quote
  • Sep 12, 2014 4:12pm Sep 12, 2014 4:12pm
  •  ajentha
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 291 Posts
Quoting Trader555
Disliked
Hi Alfonso and fellow traders, A question - would you say my assessment of the NZDUSD monthly trend is correct according to the rules? Here's my thinking: - 1. There are two obvious recent valleys. 2. Valley 1 took out the high at A. 3. Valley 2 took out the high at B. 4. I can therefore connect Valley 1 & 2 with a trend line, since they took out highs A & B respectively, to give me the result of monthly trend UP. 5. Unless I've made a mistake, the CP is actually a CP as marked on the chart (?) {image} If I've missed something, please let me know....
Ignored
Hi Trader 555,

I think you draw correct, because as per rule cutting candle is not accepted, it is correct

bye
ajentha
 
 
  • Post #4,717
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2014 8:37am Sep 13, 2014 8:37am
  •  prits187
  • | Joined Sep 2014 | Status: Member | 13 Posts
Please see attached Supply Photo, is there anyways i could have seen that happening? Lucky i dint have a trade on that, but i did get into buy position just after and made good profit with moving my stop loss to profit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot3.png
Size: 101 KB
 
 
  • Post #4,718
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2014 1:30pm Sep 13, 2014 1:30pm
  •  panoramia
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,539 Posts
Quoting Solomon1a
Disliked
hello alfonso and fellow traders, hope you all have a nice weekend, I was trying analyze the NZDCHF last night which i found in complicated situation, the monthly is UP, weekly is Holding UP (near to break) and Daily trend is broken but have not closed below TL. my question is that as monthly us up and weekly is up and daily printed supply, so is it the valid supply to take short in countertrend? and i can not set and forget on that supply to take shorts? charts below: Monthly: {image} Weekly: {image} Daily: {image}
Ignored
Hello Solomon,

Could you please remove the charts you uploaded? They contain indicators that are not used in the strategy and that breaks the rules in post #1, can you please? You can edit the post if you want and re-attach the charts but without what looks like bollinger bands. Please can you?

Thanks
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
 
 
  • Post #4,719
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2014 1:32pm Sep 13, 2014 1:32pm
  •  panoramia
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,539 Posts
Quoting prits187
Disliked
Please see attached Supply Photo, is there anyways i could have seen that happening? Lucky i dint have a trade on that, but i did get into buy position just after and made good profit with moving my stop loss to profit {image}
Ignored
Hello Prits,

Could you please remove the 5 minutes chart you uploaded? It breaks the rules in post #1, lower timeframe's charts are not allowed. Can you please? Looking forward to that, rules are broken so there are only 2 options, post removed or user is banned. Sorry to be so strict but it's the only way that a thread can exist and rules be respected.

Thanks
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
 
 
  • Post #4,720
  • Quote
  • Sep 13, 2014 5:24pm Sep 13, 2014 5:24pm
  •  Solomon1a
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 196 Posts
Quoting panoramia
Disliked
{quote} Hello Solomon, Could you please remove the charts you uploaded? They contain indicators that are not used in the strategy and that breaks the rules in post #1, can you please? You can edit the post if you want and re-attach the charts but without what looks like bollinger bands. Please can you? Thanks Alfonso
Ignored
Sorry for the rule which i broke Alfonso, i have re-uploaded the charts below and here let me ask my question again , as monthly is up and weekly is broken but not closed below weekly TL and aligning with monthly, and in D1 is in downtrend but i have doubt in D1 TL, it was broken at 3sep and created the fresh demand but now the D1 TL is again below the D1 TL and negated the 3sep of demand and created a fresh supply there, so can we set and forget on this D1 supply as it is not original but its fresh and also we are below the 50% of monthly demand which is in control..

Monthly:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: nzdchfmn.jpg
Size: 97 KB


Weekly:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: nzdchfwk.jpg
Size: 231 KB


Daily:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: nzdchfday.jpg
Size: 130 KB
 
 
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