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  • #4,721
  • Sep 8, 2014 11:39am Sep 8, 2014 11:39am
Quoting StrayDog
Good job on EUO, I didn't even know that ETF.
Yep, that EUO is not so great but it's ok for a directional play I suppose. I paid $0.18 & it's up $0.30/$0.35 now. EUO Jan $20 call will be approx. EUR/USD $1.2800.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,722
  • Sep 8, 2014 11:55am Sep 8, 2014 11:55am
IV rank at 100 for YHOO... IV going to the roof... I am setting a new tablet for a vacation, looking at charts with one eye and I noticed that IV is rising, so wanted to add to a position on a pullback, (same bull put spreads like TF) but all it did was a ~40.60 drop and then to the moon. So now on $41.30 price of U/L, 37 Sep26 puts are the same price like they was when YHOO was $40.70, all thanks to rising IV. Well, clock is ticking...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,723
  • Sep 8, 2014 2:50pm Sep 8, 2014 2:50pm
apple looks bearish to me but am holding off making a trade on it because the new products that are set to launched by apple tomorrow morning
  • #4,724
  • Sep 8, 2014 7:20pm Sep 8, 2014 7:20pm
Quoting straydog
iv rank at 100 for yhoo... Iv going to the roof... I am setting a new tablet for a vacation, looking at charts with one eye
hey, you never told us where you're going on vacay...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,725
  • Sep 8, 2014 10:59pm Sep 8, 2014 10:59pm
recent trades. EUO Jan $20 calls gone from $0.18 to $0.30/$0.40. Shitty spread on an inferior instrument, but should make further gains as the EUR/USD strengthens overnight. Jackson Hole takedown in effect, I just wonder how far how fast down?

The SPY diagonal doing what it is supposed to do, which is lower my cost basis for the SPY long calls. The $205 short calls will expire worthless at the end of the week, and I'll be in the $210 longs for net $0.03 debit. So, I didn't think $205 would be hit by 9/12, nor $210 will be hit by 10/19. I wanted to be open to the prospect of SPY moving up, though. If the SnP is gonna tank or flatline, no problem, I will sell more diagonal legs. As it stands now, the 10/18 $207 calls could be sold for $0.20. Maybe SPY will turn up and I could do better. Maybe SPY turns down and I abandon the idea, take my tiny loss, and put slim margin to work elsewhere.

The UVXY bull put spread was a bit risky, $22 strike too close, but it has been holding up. As you can see it's a little shy of b/e - the long puts have lost $0.40 and the short puts have gained $0.38. Ideally we get a vol spike and I buy out of the $22 calls somewhere a little short of max profit, otherwise I hang in and grind out the theta.

The above trades all made within the last few weeks from a Roth IRA account with around $4k in it. If I closed them all tomorrow I'd be up >10% for the cycle in the account, and there's still a couple weeks to go...

I did that EUO long call in better numbers elsewhere, will likely start taking some profits tomorrow if/when I see >100% gain....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-08_trades.png Size: 42 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,726
  • Sep 9, 2014 7:21am Sep 9, 2014 7:21am
From the text at
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/need-to...-stock-market/

The S&P 500 SPX -0.31% has now gone 14 straight sessions without moving more than 0.5% in either direction by the close. That hasn’t happened since 1995, according to Jonathan Krinsky of MKM Partners. But, as pointed out in Monday’s live blog, there’s historically a silver lining to sleep-inducing stretches such as this.
“Since 1980, we found only five other instances where the SPX went at least 10 days without closing up or down more than 0.50%,” he said. “All five occurrences were during the mid-90s, and… the forward returns were rather impressive.”
In all five cases, the S&P was up an average of 0.9% after one week and 4.7% higher after three months. And judging from some recent target hikes, Wall Street wouldn’t be surprised if it plays out that way again.

------------------------------------------------

So, they think that all this low volume standing at 2000 for SnP is some kind of consolidation only, which is going to take the index to new higher highs... and SLM from tastytrade has good DJIA analysis (posted link before) where he "predicts" some sort of nice correction, like 10-20% in spring 2015... and rate hikes will be also from spring 2015 (or not?)... So, more of this dull bull market... eh.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,727
  • Sep 9, 2014 7:24am Sep 9, 2014 7:24am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hey, you never told us where you're going on vacay...?
I am going to Turkey, with my wife and daughter. Just for 8 days / 7 nights... starting from Saturday Sep13.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,728
  • Sep 9, 2014 7:40am Sep 9, 2014 7:40am
Quoting The Fool
recent trades...
Hey TF, when you post a screenshot of your positions, sometimes I get confused on those columns, since it is different from IB that I am using.
I recall that you said once that is from E*trade platform?
Lets see if I understand those columns correctly.

So, there are 9 of them after "trade"
1) last
2) change
3) change %
4) P/L Marc to Market (hate that )
5) position
6) trade price
7) Unrealized P/L minus commissions ???
8) % of return minus commissions ???
9) market value
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,729
  • Edited 8:36am Sep 9, 2014 7:47am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting Cecil Gee
apple looks bearish to me but am holding off making a trade on it because the new products that are set to launched by apple tomorrow morning
I had idea of a 92/104 Sep12 short strangle - 1 SD wide, could be filled yesterday for $0.70 up to $0.73 credit... BUT did not had the balls for it.
Then I looked at various IC's for Sep12 expiry, looking to trade this "binary event" like earnings, but didn't like the credit received. That's about all I know to do of non-directional trades when expecting a IV crush. The guys on tastytrade did a calendar on AAPL, I did not understand it on first watching. Much to learn...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,730
  • Sep 9, 2014 9:05am Sep 9, 2014 9:05am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hey TF, when you post a screenshot of your positions, sometimes I get confused on those
like this
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-09_headings.png Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-09_yhoo.png Size: 18 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,731
  • Sep 9, 2014 9:20am Sep 9, 2014 9:20am
The Dollar is about to Kill Bonds

http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/blog...114617402.html

"the price action in the chart gives you an easy trade to put on.
Buy the US Dollar Index ETF UUP and sell the US Treasury ETF TLT"

the USD strength will kill equities before it kills bonds, but it might kill both.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,732
  • Sep 9, 2014 9:33am Sep 9, 2014 9:33am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I am going to Turkey, with my wife and daughter. Just for 8 days / 7 nights... starting from Saturday Sep13.
nice...to the beach, maybe?.....have fun
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,733
  • Sep 9, 2014 9:44am Sep 9, 2014 9:44am
Quoting Cecil Gee
apple looks bearish to me but am holding off making a trade on it because the new products that are set to launched by apple tomorrow morning
if apple closes underneath $99 then I'm buying puts just before it actually does close, has anyone seen any news from apple'S conference?
  • #4,734
  • Sep 9, 2014 9:55am Sep 9, 2014 9:55am
Y2K tech stock bubble peak month - Jan 2000 - 4,573. Right Now: 4,573 - fun, fun, fun!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-09-09_ixic.png Size: 84 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,735
  • Sep 9, 2014 9:56am Sep 9, 2014 9:56am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} if apple closes underneath $99 then I'm buying puts just before it actually does close, has anyone seen any news from apple'S conference?
News conference is at 1 p.m. EST
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,736
  • Sep 9, 2014 10:05am Sep 9, 2014 10:05am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} like this {image} {image}



Quoting The Fool
{quote} nice...to the beach, maybe?.....have fun
Yep... gonna teach my daughter to swim ... she is only 22 months old.
Destination - Sherwood Greenwood Resort, Kiziltepe Mevkii, 07994 Göynük, Turkey
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,737
  • Sep 9, 2014 11:02am Sep 9, 2014 11:02am
Quoting The Fool
Y2K tech stock bubble peak month - Jan 2000 - 4,573. Right Now: 4,573 - fun, fun, fun! {image}
great find
  • #4,738
  • Sep 9, 2014 11:40am Sep 9, 2014 11:40am
Brazilian stocks are wild... like PBR. I traded EWZ a couple of times. Here is a trade from dough

Attached Image


But instead of that IC, I will rather go with 46/48 + 54/56 for $0.78 or $0.79 credit... IMO better risk/reward
So, same short strikes, but spreads $2 wide, instead of $3 wide like on the pic.
IV is high, elections on October 5th I think.

Or, maybe being neutral is wrong?
Moody’s Lower Outlook Latest Issue for Brazil ETFs
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,739
  • Sep 9, 2014 12:09pm Sep 9, 2014 12:09pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} if apple closes underneath $99 then I'm buying puts just before it actually does close, has anyone seen any news from apple'S conference?
from a sharp rise to a high of 100.68 apple falls back to 99.73, the above could still be on
  • #4,740
  • Sep 9, 2014 12:10pm Sep 9, 2014 12:10pm
Quoting StrayDog
Brazilian stocks are wild... like PBR. I traded EWZ a couple of times. Here is a trade from dough {image} But instead of that IC, I will rather go with 46/48 + 54/56 for $0.78 or $0.79 credit... IMO better risk/reward So, same short strikes, but spreads $2 wide, instead of $3 wide like on the pic. IV is high, elections on October 5th I think. Or, maybe being neutral is wrong? Moody’s Lower Outlook Latest Issue for Brazil ETFs
looked at EWZ may do a vertical put spread on it
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