Let's Trade Options

With something like a $0.70 credit I might take a punt with around half of that with some far otm calls, Oct $48 maybe. Many think YHOO could spike to $45+ in September...

i may go for a bull call spread to reduce my cost, if it does spike to $45 it will still make me over 250% profit on a long $40.50 and write $43.50, debit around 90c, IV is so high. I will think about this

I'm wary of being otm long though, iv collapse could hurt those calls if they don't get penetrated...better to be a premium seller I reckon

I check out the top options trade volume regularly, the below from Yahoo Finance.

EEM Dec $31 puts, really? But for $0.04, probably just cheap insurance. Same maybe for Sep $40 VXX calls.

I'm in the SPY $210 Oct calls, too. Part of a Sep/Oct $205/$210 diagonal - $0.03 net debit.

EWZ Sep $60 calls for $0.01......hmm

EFA is an interesting etf, see below.

EFA tracks international stocks, excludes US and Canada...

http://nypost.com/2014/09/06/this-st...-in-the-tooth/

It's coming. Any year now. Just hope I have the good sense to trade it well....

Brazilian stock names should be getting more volatile with the upcoming general elections (10/5), VALE has been bouncing off the $12.xx levels, the Dec $15 calls are $0.13. Good reasons for that sector to be depressed, might be tough sledding, but also VALE might get a lift from any improvement in Brazilian political scene.

PBR should slide the more it looks like Dilma will be re-elected. Stronger USD also weighs there. Oct $16/$15 debit put spread costs $0.15....

What happens when the Fed stops propping up stocks?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/happen...094500610.html

"An optimistic take is that when the Fed steps away, the stock market will cool its heels, but not collapse, as companies refocus on hiring, building and expanding. That'll be great news for the overall economy and America's workers. A pessimistic outlook is that, with the loss of a major source of support, stocks could drop in a way that hasn't been seen in years, potentially destabilizing the recovery."

It's been a long time coming, but there's a storm a'brewing, I tell ye.

1. Taper is tapering and will be fully tapered in just a couple months.
2. Fed will continue talking about a funds rate increase. Specificity is on the table for the 9/18 FOMC.
3. The US midterm elections are coming up. This will start to impact market volatility as it may look like the GOP takes Congress.
4. Eurozone QE may counterbalance, but maybe not.
5. Advancing USD strength helps the Eurozone but weighs on US equities.
6. Exogenous red flags are all still there, ready to wave frantically and freak out global markets. The West has no answer for Putin other than economic sanctions which backfire and ricochet in negative ways. You'd have to bet the ISIS-inspired fanatics will look to hatch big terrorist events on homeland soil, in Europe or the US...
7. And so on.

We may see some further hot legs up in US equities in the next week, but this storm out yonder on the horizon - it's a'brewing I tell ye. Could blow up all of a sudden, matey. Better batten down them hatches & keep that bumbershoot handy.

...calm before the storm

http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/09/...ore-storm.html

"The inability of the bond market to rally on the back of weakest job growth of the year is a potential signal that US yields may have bottomed. This risk, in turn, may point to a consolidation or pullback in the US equity market. The BOJ's ongoing operations and the ECB's measures more than offset the end of QE in terms of global liquidity. In the current environment, liquidity is a key driver, and my continue to underpin asset prices, and risk-taking more generally."

not sure about that, marc - UST yields have been positively correlated with equities for some time.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sto...4-09-07?page=2

"Managers of those funds are looking for a way to boost performance by the end of the year, and that will likely result in picking stocks that have either high beta, high price momentum, or popularity among investors.

Given this, Goldman recommended 15 stocks including so-called “momentum” stocks like Facebook Inc. FB, +1.72% and Netflix Inc. NFLX, +0.64%... "

"Morgan Stanley is recommending investors choose growth stocks over value stocks as the beta on the two classes have become similar. When it comes to valuations, however, value stocks are looking more expensive than growth stocks, the firm said.
Some of the growth industries that fit this profile include auto components, communications equipment, health care providers and services, along with aerospace and defense, Morgan Stanley said."

I'm looking for TLT to turn up again, we'll see. There's the monthly 10y/30y bond auctions on 9/10-11.

and so it begins....

http://nypost.com/2014/09/06/strong-...citys-tourism/

overnight watching Softbank, which trades on Nikkei 225, and, like Yahoo, has a big stake in BABA....it's up 2.4%....

The "real" trading season begins....

http://www.simpleroptions.com/public...685b0ae520a6ed

Interesting analysis of DJIA. It's a 15 min video by SLM of tastytrade, analysis is on monthly chart.

20 Years of the Dow Jones Industrial

Hi TF. I see you are interested in YHOO also. I did made a few positions on it on Thursday, Sep4.

I left with only that "famous" 40/43/46 Oct fly, since I have closed some bullish put spreads and one naked put. But then on Thursday I opened another bull put spreads - 35/37 Oct17 for $0.65 credit, some naked puts 37 Oct17 and 37 Sep26, for $1.31 and $0.98 credit. All of that, could be filled better, I rushed a bit, I had some guests on Friday, did not have a time to trade, and had to prepare some food etc... But hey, it is ok now.

Good job on EUO, I didn't even know that ETF.

hey StrayDog. Yes I missed getting in last week, ( ) but did a 9/26 $36/$38 bp spread for $0.46 credit this morning.

TLT bouncing well. Old Faithful. Holding Oct $122 calls, looking for TLT to get up towards $118 again and I will sell another slice of 9/20 calls there...

the iv collapse may happen after alibaba's ipo, yahoo hopefully be close to 43/44 by then