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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #15,981
  • Sep 5, 2014 11:46am Sep 5, 2014 11:46am
Ok for next week quite nice short term setups with exception of GBP a long term setup. It might not seems so but i think GBP is on important decision point from technical perspective, it looks upsidy at moment, but break bellow crucial demand is bearish long term. Longs are good idea on short tf entries with small risk SL.
EURUSD has some nice supply above for shorts still fresh but closely touched on its bottom, so prefferd shorts are deeper entries into supply.
I posted previously AJ as canceled setup, but looks like not so, bulls still bumping higher.

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  • #15,982
  • Sep 5, 2014 3:59pm Sep 5, 2014 3:59pm
Quoting janpec1000
Ok for next week quite nice short term setups with exception of GBP a long term setup. It might not seems so but i think GBP is on important decision point from technical perspective, it looks upsidy at moment, but break bellow crucial demand is bearish long term. Longs are good idea on short tf entries with small risk SL. EURUSD has some nice supply above for shorts still fresh but closely touched on its bottom, so prefferd shorts are deeper entries into supply. I posted previously AJ as canceled setup, but looks like not so, bulls still bumping...

nice charts, Jan
  • #15,983
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:44pm Sep 5, 2014 5:44pm
EU


The daily sentiment index shows, that only around 5% EUR bulls are left. That is very low and was last seen at the lows of July of 2013 when price was around 275x.


On the other side, by looking at the various sources of retail trader positioning we may conclude, that the retail traders have not given up the hope on their long positions, and thus it may be best to trade this contrarian (aka short)

http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/deuts...tch/sentiment/

https://www.tradingfloor.com/tools/f...il-positioning

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/lang/de/ana...osition-ratios

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-positions

http://www.cfd-portal.com/marktberic...ex-04-09-2014/


On the other side:

the put/call ratio jumped on thursday http://en.unciatrends.com/euro-fx-op...putcall-ratio/

and the trade explorer data from FF shows, that the bullish traders decreased over the last few days from way above 60% to now around 55%

http://www.forexfactory.com/trades.p...ions-details=0



so all in all we do not see an homogeneous picture here



From an EW point of view the structure of the whole down-move is open to multiple interpretations. Most Elliotticans are looking for a bottom since weeks, but price accelerated further down. Since the picture with the Elliotticans have not changed so far, this itself may be a contrariety hint and may call for more movement south.

From a momentum point of view we have clearly seen acceleration, and the severe drop yesterday coupled with really high momentum may give us reason to believe, that we are in the "middle" of a wave 3 down. Price may consolidate a bit here, but direction seems to be more down.



Strategy now could be to reduce short exposition and to re-short the bounces.
  • #15,984
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:45pm Sep 5, 2014 5:45pm
http://www.animusx.de/


here you can gain access to sentiment data when you participate


but only in German language
  • #15,985
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:56pm Sep 5, 2014 5:56pm
http://investup.com/index.php/market...ent-indicators
  • #15,986
  • Edited 4:56am Sep 6, 2014 4:31am | Edited 4:56am
At the end of this week in my view USD is bullish on Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Intraday... now at 83.79
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$USD

Hence from here we can expect they should try 85.xx as target on Weekly... but first let's see what will happen at 84.00 to 84.40 on Daily.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: `4.png Size: 288 KB
  • #15,987
  • Sep 6, 2014 7:34am Sep 6, 2014 7:34am
Quoting andexQ
At the end of this week in my view USD is bullish on Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Intraday... now at 83.79 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$USD Hence from here we can expect they should try 85.xx as target on Weekly... but first let's see what will happen at 84.00 to 84.40 on Daily. {image}
Yes agree dollar is bullish there are no signs of weakness at any TF. While for EU its oposite.
  • #15,988
  • Sep 6, 2014 9:14am Sep 6, 2014 9:14am
Quoting infinitus
well, well, well..... some comments about my volume based trading model: in combination with Murrey Math and Elliott wave, my volume profiles gave me good entries and exits when both of the following was there: a) price was more or less ranging b) due to the ranging nature I had valid volume profiles on more than one TF Since we do rend strongly since months, I have only one volume distribution left which is evaluable: that is the 32 months distributions. Best results in the past (in the ranging days) was the 5.3 days distribution (the Murrey Math...
Hi friends,

hope you all have a nice weekend.


Had some people asking me, if I would hold the shorts I had taken around the 3970 level.

Here is the answer, since I did not address it clearly in my above cited statement:


When price came into the 34x area I pseudo-hedged more and more of my shorts with offsetting long positions, untilI went net-long with some smallish position around 335-337.

I clearly thought, that probability for a stronger retracement was given. My fault. We only got some ranging in the 333 to 343 area.

I was net neutral when price broke below of 3330 again. At that time I had the idea, that price would recover soon enough a bit above the 342 level in order to get rid of my "hedging" longs for profit.

But that never happened. Since I was on vacation deep in the mountains with changing Internet access, I decided to only short term trade a bit with smallish positions. So nothing gained to brag about LOL

I think that I will not see the 337 to 343 area in the next months again. Maybe I will simply merge my longs and shorts on Monday and end this episode.

It was simply a major fault to offset all of my strategic short positions with long positions, when having targets of 1.2x or much lower, only because of hoping for some quick gains of a counter move.

Well, have made over 500 pips on the down-move, so nothing to complain. But could have substantially more now. Still hoping to get a better entry to re-short again.

Since the whole wave down so far is more like a mysterium than a clear obvious EW count, I am eager to learn in a few months how this puzzle will resolve LOL

Hope I have cleared up the mess
  • #15,989
  • Sep 7, 2014 6:25am Sep 7, 2014 6:25am
http://headlines.ransquawk.com/headl...r-2-05-09-2014

Speculators cutting longs right on major demand zone. This is usually decent sign for bounce against specs.
  • #15,990
  • Edited 12:58pm Sep 7, 2014 10:43am | Edited 12:58pm
I am wondering, is there anyone who will trade September 18ths referendum on GBPUSD? I am leaning towards placing shorts, however results should be very tight and might not be worth a risk, pending order away from current price would be decent option however.

Here come gas sanctions to Russian gas. No surprise to me, it was obvious since beginning where this sanctions path lead trough petro war. Basically only last link remains which is kicking Russia out of SWIFT which will happen soon. Probably best idea for any Russian traders is to withdraw money from international brokers.
Now that all has developed trough expectations in Ukraine since i started following it in March, here is probably 3 scenarios to happen next:
-full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, obviously starting ww, small possibility (EUR drop, gold big rally)
-false flag event, either destruction of some airplane with ambasadors/officials/president and start of ww, medium possibility (gold medium rally)
-Russia and Nato digg trenches on each side of Ukraine and extend proxy war for month or two until something else happens (no visible spikes to consolidate on)

Since NATO is one of biggest false flag institutions overall probably scenario two sounds very likely. If one looks situation rationally there is no exit for Putin that would be possible to achieve trough peace or just having half of Ukraine due to obvious reasons, and there is no way globalists will do nothing if Putin takes over whole Ukraine (obviously many USA and possibly NATO soldiers would die anyways), and since EU nor USA want peace, really what Ukraine situation is terrible.
At any case chances for piece are 0 as Putin is cornered and NATO is willing to play all in along EU aswell. With Germany playing secretly BRICKs cards and somehow disobeying NATO it wont be enough to stop globalists. Only thing that could stop this to escalate is massive protests of people, but its already too late for it, besides as situation can escalate so quickly into non controlable any protests after wouldnt matter anyways.
  • #15,991
  • Sep 8, 2014 3:40am Sep 8, 2014 3:40am
Quoting janpec1000
Ok for next week quite nice short term setups with exception of GBP a long term setup. It might not seems so but i think GBP is on important decision point from technical perspective, it looks upsidy at moment, but break bellow crucial demand is bearish long term. Longs are good idea on short tf entries with small risk SL. EURUSD has some nice supply above for shorts still fresh but closely touched on its bottom, so prefferd shorts are deeper entries into supply. I posted previously AJ as canceled setup, but looks like not so, bulls still bumping...
Update on those charts, AUD gaped down bellow critical line and messed up all short term views, so AUD views are no longer valid. EU still staying and gold is still bearish view. Funny one is GU with massive gap due to Mel Gibson seems like, was expecting down move on it but not that soon heh. If those votes could move it 140 pips, then yes result on referendum can easily dunk 300. I will place shorts on 17th, will report what price.
  • #15,992
  • Sep 8, 2014 10:28am Sep 8, 2014 10:28am
AUDUSD small chance to catch short entry at least not from higher tfs, but direction should go:
http://prntscr.com/4kvoon
UJ (dollar strenght)
http://prntscr.com/4kvpfv
USDCHF (dollar strenght)
http://prntscr.com/4kvpno
USDCAD (dollar strenght)
http://prntscr.com/4kvpvi
AUDJPY (H4 is still bullish so this one is more riskier)
http://prntscr.com/4kvqfz


Gold from previous post reached my down target went as planned.
  • #15,993
  • Sep 8, 2014 11:47pm Sep 8, 2014 11:47pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
These Kinds Of Market-Rigging "Practices" Will No Longer Be Allowed On The CME
  • #15,994
  • Sep 9, 2014 12:03am Sep 9, 2014 12:03am
USD

Quoting andexQ
At the end of this week in my view USD is bullish on Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Intraday... now at 83.79 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$USD Hence from here we can expect they should try 85.xx as target on Weekly... but first let's see what will happen at 84.00 to 84.40 on Daily. {image}

Well.. 84.40 was taken out with ease and became strong support level,
above 84.40 there is nothing hard to reach 85.00... now at 84.59
  • #15,995
  • Sep 9, 2014 12:53am Sep 9, 2014 12:53am
EU

EW count on 12h TF


this count has a limiotation: when we get below of 2839 the red 3 is the shortest of red 1,3 and 5 and so will invalidate the count


Such a move would be eventually very bearish, because it would imply that we had to find a count with multiple 1-2 moves


One can tr longs here with SL just below the recent low, or SL slightly below of 2839
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_12 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 59 KB
  • #15,996
  • Sep 9, 2014 1:27am Sep 9, 2014 1:27am
Quoting andexQ
USD {quote} Well.. 84.40 was taken out with ease and became strong support level, above 84.40 there is nothing hard to reach 85.00... now at 84.59

Ups sorry... I should add "if it tested and hold.. "
  • #15,997
  • Sep 9, 2014 2:38am Sep 9, 2014 2:38am
Quoting infinitus
EU EW count on 12h TF this count has a limiotation: when we get below of 2839 the red 3 is the shortest of red 1,3 and 5 and so will invalidate the count Such a move would be eventually very bearish, because it would imply that we had to find a count with multiple 1-2 moves One can tr longs here with SL just below the recent low, or SL slightly below of 2839 {image}

The following count is the most logical I can come up with. Momentum would fit nicely and it fibs quiet good
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 79 KB
  • #15,998
  • Sep 9, 2014 3:13am Sep 9, 2014 3:13am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} The following count is the most logical I can come up with. Momentum would fit nicely and it fibs quiet good {image}

pink 5 of green 3 may extend a bit now

good fib level and round number suppoert would be seen at 1,280
  • #15,999
  • Sep 9, 2014 4:02am Sep 9, 2014 4:02am
Quoting janpec1000
AUDUSD small chance to catch short entry at least not from higher tfs, but direction should go: http://prntscr.com/4kvoon UJ (dollar strenght) http://prntscr.com/4kvpfv USDCHF (dollar strenght) http://prntscr.com/4kvpno USDCAD (dollar strenght) http://prntscr.com/4kvpvi AUDJPY (H4 is still bullish so this one is more riskier) http://prntscr.com/4kvqfz Gold from previous post reached my down target went as planned.
All 5 worked out. Over 100 pips all together. AJ has bounced so now i am flat on it.
  • #16,000
  • Sep 9, 2014 9:56am Sep 9, 2014 9:56am
New charts:
AJ
http://prntscr.com/4l6thm
Gold strong defense set on 57, good for scalps
http://prntscr.com/4l6tu7
GJ direction line
http://prntscr.com/4l6u9n
AUDUSD
http://prntscr.com/4l6umf
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