Would you open the book learn, if was only bear breasted men with swords?
regards
regards
Technical Analysis Fallacy
- #49,762
- Sep 3, 2014 3:17am Sep 3, 2014 3:17am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
I still thinking.
What the event managers have planned for the public bail out all the banks who are short.
and turn them all long currencies near their lows.
regards
What the event managers have planned for the public bail out all the banks who are short.
and turn them all long currencies near their lows.
regards
- #49,763
- Sep 3, 2014 3:21am Sep 3, 2014 3:21am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
i prefer watch the old one. easier understand because made like superman type movie. When human could fly.
but new one have GONGLEE, wow
i think maybe watch new one?
May have very educational scenes. gonglee woh
Gong.g.g.g.g.g.g.g.g.g
ai ya old man, 1998 still call new.
regards
but new one have GONGLEE, wow
i think maybe watch new one?May have very educational scenes. gonglee woh
Gong.g.g.g.g.g.g.g.g.g
ai ya old man, 1998 still call new.
regards
- #49,768
- Edited 7:25am Sep 3, 2014 6:57am | Edited 7:25am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
- #49,770
- Edited 8:45am Sep 3, 2014 8:04am | Edited 8:45am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
Is someone buying AUD all over the place?
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- #49,772
- Edited 3:44pm Sep 3, 2014 11:19am | Edited 3:44pm
how did you know they were assassins?
ok
boy in the 2013 fail compilation-- the one headbutting the car window
was really intense, not sure why his skull didn't fracture and cause a hemorrhage.
but he seemed really determined to break into car, so I was only able to encourage his pursuits from my monitor.
entertaining. Also, short dollar scout with no radio communication @ 4.95 to gather some intel on daily management.
Just testing some new waters. I think pros are well equipped with those complex tools for this type of management, but I think since only scouts, can be ok for now.
Please yell at me, if you think the scorpion kicking in. I'm just so curious to understand.
I will monitor throughout the experiment just in case peanuts get buried too deep.
also so sad, I almost cried seeing this on my tumblr
it is a person affected by Alzheimer disease :/
ok
boy in the 2013 fail compilation-- the one headbutting the car window
was really intense, not sure why his skull didn't fracture and cause a hemorrhage.
but he seemed really determined to break into car, so I was only able to encourage his pursuits from my monitor.
entertaining. Also, short dollar scout with no radio communication @ 4.95 to gather some intel on daily management.
Just testing some new waters. I think pros are well equipped with those complex tools for this type of management, but I think since only scouts, can be ok for now.
Please yell at me, if you think the scorpion kicking in.
I'm just so curious to understand. I will monitor throughout the experiment just in case peanuts get buried too deep.Inserted Video
also so sad, I almost cried seeing this on my tumblr
it is a person affected by Alzheimer disease :/
- #49,773
- Edited 8:24pm Sep 3, 2014 7:57pm | Edited 8:24pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
- #49,774
- Edited 10:05pm Sep 3, 2014 9:28pm | Edited 10:05pm
- | Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,667 Posts
{quote} just an update, seems like it doesn't work, getting the put and call quotes from a source like saxobank, since they have both forex and options together, it seems they have priced in these rollover interest rates already. especially now that the G10 currencies and the traditional carry currencies do not yield enough interest to pay for the commissions. we have to look towards emerging markets, however, it seems like to get positive interest, we have to short the usdtry pair, so using this method, we need to create a zero cost hedge, by going...
Mostly want to better understand fx options
got my first long vanilla put to fit with a recent longer term analysis scenario
mostly encourage by a w.d.g. book to pursue
I don't know if I'll ever need to use these, but expanding my knowledge about the mkt is soo much fun for me :')
Unfortunately my understanding is like .00001 of what your ideas sound like, so can't help put puzzle pieces together.
- #49,776
- Sep 4, 2014 12:54am Sep 4, 2014 12:54am
- | Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,667 Posts
{quote} I just got the saxobank demo today. Have been playing with it all day long. Mostly want to better understand fx options got my first long vanilla put to fit with a recent longer term analysis scenario mostly encourage by a w.d.g. book to pursue I don't know if I'll ever need to use these, but expanding my knowledge about the mkt is soo much fun for me :') Unfortunately my understanding is like .00001 of what your ideas sound like, so can't help put puzzle pieces together.
no worries,
let me help u identify the pieces.
the first piece, the carry trade, which for my example, is the usdtry, is a short position which yields a positive interest rate differential, i.e. the liquidity provider rolls your position over to tomorrow, and either adjusts your position up if short or down if long, given it is a positive interest rate for your short or long position, or they pay you interest same way, except it is booked only after you close the trade. so saxo and dukascopy, both use the adjustment method while oanda uses the deposit method after the trade is closed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carry_%28investment%29
the 2nd piece is zero cost hedging, which is that the put at a say 100 pips strike away OTM from the current strike while a call 100 pips strike away OTM, should have the same extrinsic value and 0 intrinsic value, at some same expiration time say 6 months later. so an example is say we have our current price 1.000, so the value for the put at 0.900 should be same as a call at 1.100, so what we are expecting is that the ATM value for the put and call is the same and they cancel each other out, the above is a zero cost collar, while we are creating a synthetic, which is that by selling a put ATM at 1.000 and buying a call ATM at 1.000, we should get a synthetic long, which is long position, at no additional cost.
synthesizing a portfolio of these 2 together, which should not experience any floating rate fluctuation on these 2 positions, margin usage should be 0, since if the short spot loses money, the synthetic long gains money, and if the short spot gains money, the synthetic long gains money, so whats happening is by carry trading, we gain interest on the total position as time goes by, there by paying off the commissions after a certain time, depending on commissions and interest earned. hence this form the basis of this portfolio.
however, upon inspection of the quotes for the fx options, it would seem that the broker has a very lob-sided quote for options, that is as the above example i cited, 600 to buy a call and 200 to sell a put ATM, it gets even worse, as we go further out in months. which means because the assumed zero cost hedging doesn't work here, the strategy is not sound anymore. hence a simulation of the expected payoff requires us to pay out approx 120pips per lot. however, that is not the only risk there is, interest rate changes though persistent, can still change and that is another risk that can't be modelled for. hence because of these 2 situations, it seems like this model is not favourable anymore.
i can speculate 2 reasons for this observation, that is 1, too many people are doing it already, and the market makers and being hit really hard on this, and hence the price have been adjusted so much to justify the risk the market makers have for being a counter party to those trades, so it means this portfolio has an arbitrage like property but is not a true arbitrage in the sense that we are still at risk of central bank policy changes which affect rates.
another reason is perhaps the market makers have already factored in this early on, and want to discourage this form of strategy and their pricing model for these emerging markets involves the positive cost of carry, because notice the puts cost 3times lesser than the call, when it is in their favour in terms of interest rates, and when you sell the put, you do not get compensated for the interest paid for the cost of carry when u go long the pair and are trying to protect the long position.
so i guess this method just doesn't work in this environment now.
- #49,777
- Edited 1:35am Sep 4, 2014 1:07am | Edited 1:35am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
{quote} just an update, seems like it doesn't work, getting the put and call quotes from a source like saxobank, since they have both forex and options together, it seems they have priced in these rollover interest rates already. especially now that the G10 currencies and the traditional carry currencies do not yield enough interest to pay for the commissions. we have to look towards emerging markets, however, it seems like to get positive interest, we have to short the usdtry pair, so using this method, we need to create a zero cost hedge, by going...
are you planning trding forex thru the money changers at the travel stations?is the bank you trading with eeeer a full services bank? or investment/merchant bank, or bank rep office? , or you like trade at the river banks.
is up to you , you are the funds manager.
Any river bank money changing service near you?
otherwise trade with your piggy bank.
You may like name your house The White House, because its white , or may be Police Station sounds safer.
If its real shit hole , you can name it THE TOILET. Maybe if i start a drinking bar, I 'll name it THE SHITHOLE.
If things keep flying in and out of your house, like mosquitoes and insects , you can name it THE AIRPORT.
It ok name it anything you like. I name my dog, katak. and name my frog, Dog. if i can manage catch one.
the katak, not the dog.
These days have all sorts banks, blood bank, food bank, sperm bank.......which one you trading with?
Maybe you like trade with mr. hamberger . He's 1 nice treasurer i know.
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nonono , you can't buy a hamberg girl.
only the burger. We only sell burgers.
regards
- #49,778
- Sep 4, 2014 1:31am Sep 4, 2014 1:31am
- | Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,667 Posts
{quote}
well, this is what they call themselves, im just citing the source of my data, so if anyone who is interested can have a look at the data source too, and come to their own conclusion on this matter.
i will have to try to look around for more data to come to my conclusion and back up this research, but currently at least it seems that this strategy can be nullified this way.
{quote}
- #49,780
- Sep 4, 2014 1:40am Sep 4, 2014 1:40am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
{quote} hi, fti, well, this is what they call themselves, im just citing the source of my data, so if anyone who is interested can have a look at the data source too, and come to their own conclusion on this matter. i will have to try to look around for more data to come to my conclusion and back up this research, but currently at least it seems that this strategy can be nullified this way.
They murder you with volitility spreads and you cannot see?
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regards