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Attachments: Fractals, ZZ & the Pissing Dog
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Fractals, ZZ & the Pissing Dog

  • #861
  • Edited 10:13am Sep 3, 2014 9:59am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} Where you are right is to consider fractals only once the 2nd candle after the fractals is closed.
Gentlemen,

take it easy, yes the fractal repaint, but not after the second bar is closed. In this thread we Always discussed fractals after closing the second bar. This is also the base for building set 1,2 and 3.
I hope this discussion wil not end in that we have to appoint a winner, because this kind of discussions only delivers two loosers, a big one and a small one, and for sure is it not a contribution to this thread.

Best regards
It is not important how often you fall down, but how often you get up again
  • #862
  • Sep 3, 2014 10:23am Sep 3, 2014 10:23am
Quoting emonts
{quote} Gentlemen, take it easy, yes the fractal repaint, but not after the second bar is closed. In this thread we Always discussed fractals after closing the second bar. This is also the base for building set 1,2 and 3. I hope this discussion wil not end in that we have to appoint a winner, because this kind of discussions only delivers two loosers, a big one and a small one, and for sure is it not a contribution to this thread. Best regards
Agree ... lets discuss about other thing.

Quoting gg53
{quote} As to "looking" at Fractals: they are marked at the top HIGH of the bar - which means nothing from a trader point of view. (a hint) As to trading entry signals, you as a trader should know the difference between HLOC - and that's the way you should look at Fractals (yes, another hint).
Hm ... this becomes more interesting ....
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #863
  • Sep 3, 2014 10:30am Sep 3, 2014 10:30am
Quoting emonts
{quote} Gentlemen, take it easy, yes the fractal repaint, but not after the second bar is closed. In this thread we Always discussed fractals after closing the second bar. This is also the base for building set 1,2 and 3. I hope this discussion wil not end in that we have to appoint a winner, because this kind of discussions only delivers two loosers, a big one and a small one, and for sure is it not a contribution to this thread. Best regards
Yes exactly ... and that's why I said that GG was right to consider the fractals after the 2nd candle closed ... after the potential repainting.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #864
  • Sep 3, 2014 8:27pm Sep 3, 2014 8:27pm
Was wondering if i could get some clarity here - i only stumbled across this thread a few weeks ago and have been reading up (fantastic documents btw) I have also msg'd some people here and got some good answers (thanks FerruFx and Smallcat)

Generating SET 1 / 2 / 3 is easy enough; my problem lies with applying the logic

my data is using 2011 to 2012 EURUSD 5 min data
my SET 1 = 16368 entries
my SET 2 = ~940 entries of unique ZZfractals
my SET 3 = ~2040 entries

my MT4 coding skills are very very bad (almost non-existent) but i've managed to manually input what i see to backtest in a out of sample area (specifically Aug 29th 2013, which was one of GG53's first posts), its a good example of short ZZ legs and long ones.

so my questions going forward...

Because 0 and 1 ZZfractals appear a lot (roughly ~16% of total dataset) , they have a cluster point of around ZZlength = 5
taking this into account, once inlen > 0.5 or the whole max P works out; it generally falls around length 5 for both 0 and 1 fractal,

Question 1: based on the above - when would you ever take 01 or 00 or 10 or 11 over 1 and 0? assuming you have not seen two fractals appear yet, the probability of a ZZ leg ending on 0 or 1 is 4-5x higher than a 2 string ZZ (01 00 11 10)

--> this leads to the dilemma where every new ZZ leg, as soon as length 5 is hit you start looking for next bar prediction and if the next bar prediction is correct you would enter a trade; but this could potentially be devastating because thats not always where the ZZ leg ends!

however, if a fractal suddenly appears (2 bars late) so take the following example:
you are currently on length 5 of a Down ZZ;
since it is a Down ZZ you are looking for a DOWN Fractal (i.e a 0)
Length 5 closes and next bar says GREEN BAR - indicating you must buy, because it satisfies the probabilities...

two things can happen here....
1/ if a fractal suddenly shows up and it's a 0 fractal on bar 3 (because 2 bars late) you would STILL take a buy, because the probability of the leg ending at 0 is higher than 01 or 00
2/ if a fractal suddenly shows up and its a 1 fractal, then that changes everything... because its a down ZZ that means we must now calculate the probability of 10 / and its length and so on....


sorry if this post is all jumbled and incoherent... reiterating my problem: unless a fractal appears at length 3 (when you are at length 5) you will almost always start looking for a next bar prediction to place a order on Bar 6! the only time this fails is if your next bar doesn't give you the bar you are looking for, then you calculate length 7 and so on.

is there some optimisation that i'm missing here? how in all of GG53's posts the algorithm is seen to do very very short ZZ legs as well as long ones.

Thanks
Jangez
  • #865
  • Sep 4, 2014 3:11am Sep 4, 2014 3:11am
@ jangezkhan

We re looking to predict swing points not the end of a zz leg, although this would be ideal.

First time starting the algo we look for the latest zz end which is confirmed by a fractal pointing in the opposite direction of previous zz leg direction.

Attached Image


This way your first search ever is minimum one fractal long.
It is true that with this, the algo will not be able to predict small swings at first.
But after the first arrow has been drawn, we go on counting bars and fractals until latest arrow for next swing prediction.
  • #866
  • Edited 5:48am Sep 4, 2014 5:35am | Edited 5:48am
@ Etecy - thank you for your explanation of this; however... after reading many of GG53's posts he re-iterates time and time again that he is predicting the ZZ leg ending.

In the ultimate truth thread he gives the example of a child asking "Are we there yet" - i'm sure you will be able to find this.

1/ Match current Fractal Pattern to set 2
2/ is it the right length?
3/ next bar in opposite direction - enter trade.

I know the process, but what i really want to know is if my data has an error:
it is the 2011 to 2012 EURUSD 5 min data it has the following stats

~150,000 candles
8023 ZZLegID's

SET1 - 16368 occurences of bit strings (4-13)
SET2 - 980 unique ZZ bit strings
SET3 - 2039 Filtered substrings

with regards to the data before i go on with "Logic of what has been written in this thread - namely #1,2,3 above"

Note: Where i say Projected Length is where the total number of occurences start to tip over a 0.50 ratio

ZZFractal of 0 occurs 699 times with a "Projected Length" of around 5 candles
ZZFractal of 1 occurs 664 times with a "Projected Length" of around 5 candles

ZZFractal 10 = 151, Length of around 8-9 Candles
ZZFractal 11 = 210, Length of around 8-9 Candles

ZZFractal 00 = 226, Length of around 8-9 Candles
ZZFractal 01 = 185, Length of around 8-9 Candles

With the above Data - At what situation will you ever choose the 2 String ZZFractals over the 1 String? the probability is against you

Now with the logic:
Even with your example - Count 5 bars from #3, that is where i would have taken a sell. Why?
even if the Up Fractal didn't appear you would still be looking for an up fractal to "pop up" at candle 5 because it's "In Length" and you believe with high probability that it is the end of the ZZ LEg - ASSUMING that the next bar predicts a RED BAR; if it predicts a red bar then you take a sell on Candle 6.
If the up Fractal was a Down Fractal - then that changes everything, because you are now looking for 01, which has a length of around 8-9 candles
P.S if i took the sell there then i would have been killed
Only on the 7th Bar when you see the "10" Fractal pattern emerge then you would have changed what you are looking for to 101, as this has 636 occurences with a length of around 10.
BUT this still leaves #6 and #7 itself where you are still predicting next bar opposite direction, and if any of those were correct in next bar opposite (i.e red bar predict) you would have sold on either #6 or #7.

So my question again - how to get over the single ZZFractal occurence? its massive; unless you get fractals early ... you will be taking trades when the actual ZZ hasn't ended or is comming to an end.

P.S - There is one thing i haven't added; I have not added the whole error prediction adaptability thing where a wrong signal is recycled into the database. All I am doing is comparing the 2 year (2011 and 2012) data to August 29th 2013... so am i missing 8 months of adaptation here?
  • #867
  • Sep 4, 2014 8:23am Sep 4, 2014 8:23am
Quoting jangezkhan
@ Etecy - thank you for your explanation of this; however... after reading many of GG53's posts he re-iterates time and time again that he is predicting the ZZ leg ending. In the ultimate truth thread he gives the example of a child asking "Are we there yet" - i'm sure you will be able to find this. 1/ Match current Fractal Pattern to set 2 2/ is it the right length? 3/ next bar in opposite direction - enter trade. I know the process, but what i really want to know is if my data has an error: it is the 2011 to 2012 EURUSD 5 min data it has the following...
Hi jangezkhan,

It is months ago when i was active in this thread or different said with the math of this thread. But it is still unfinished business for me. I put a lot of time in it and i know many, many others too. Up to now it is a bad investment and of course as a human being i do not want to say to myself that i'm to stupid for this. So may be now a good moment too start again. Long time this threads looked dead. But still believe it is the best thread.

About occurrences, if you compare legs with one fractal against legs with 2 fractals or more, the first will win. But if you compare legs with 1 fractal against all legs with more then 1 fractal, the second will win.
And we now most legs will have more then one fractal, look into the charts.

BR
It is not important how often you fall down, but how often you get up again
  • #868
  • Sep 4, 2014 2:27pm Sep 4, 2014 2:27pm
Hi Emonts,

Thanks - I also thought about comparing 1 fractals with all other fractals, that way you end up with a ~84% probability that each ZZ leg will be more than 1. but it seems there is a way to include both?
  • #869
  • Sep 5, 2014 12:22pm Sep 5, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting gg53
{quote} cielo55588, Here are EURUSD charts for M5 & M15 from just now. Conflicting signals? or M5 is signaling the end of retracement of M15? Watch it from this point on. G. {image} {image}
Great results GG
Perfect predictions. Just like with all of your screenshots.
Have you ever gotten a signal that wasn't a winner?
  • #870
  • Sep 5, 2014 11:34pm Sep 5, 2014 11:34pm
Below is my understanding/misunderstanding regarding a past post. Please offer any corrections if needed:

Quoting gg53
I count the bars
5 pips or less per bar = 1 length ... 10 pips or less per bar = 2 lengths, etc.

5 pip Range bar = 1 length.

Quote
register their OHLC

Meaning Close > Open = 1 and Close < Open = 0? What is the function of the High/Low here? Or was this reference an accidental error?

Quote
count the fractals in between and their spaces

We count fractals? and what spaces? My understanding is Fractal High = 1 and Fractal Low = 0 and we are matching patterns of those (101101).

Quote
and add one fractal at the top (for Long move) or bottom (for Short move).

Yup I gotcha here. Doing the same. With Range bars there is always a fractal and the bar direction is always opposite of the fractal: Fractal High = Close < Open and Fractal Low = Close > Open.

Unfortunately I'm still not getting the context of your hints. Perhaps you mean we should be looking for lower lows/lower highs, etc. or perhaps the fractals represent the OHLC inside the ZigZag leg, but I'm not sure what we're suppose to do with that.

I am already checking for fractal pattern matches (not predictions as you occasionally have stated) when High[0] > High[1] && High[0] > High[2] and vice versus. In other words, when the past two bars indicate a potential fractal.

Thanks!
  • #871
  • Sep 6, 2014 4:53am Sep 6, 2014 4:53am
Quoting Mr_You
Below is my understanding/misunderstanding regarding a past post. Please offer any corrections if needed: {quote} 5 pips or less per bar = 1 length ... 10 pips or less per bar = 2 lengths, etc. 5 pip Range bar = 1 length. {quote} Meaning Close > Open = 1 and Close < Open = 0? What is the function of the High/Low here? Or was this reference an accidental error? {quote} We count fractals? and what spaces? My understanding is Fractal High = 1 and Fractal Low = 0 and we are matching patterns of those (101101). {quote} Yup I gotcha here. Doing the same....
Mr_You,

1. "5 pip Range bar = 1" - No. That's Renko bar. Range bars measure total movement in any direction. It could be 2 up and 3 down.
2. "What is the function of the High/Low here?" - Fractals are marked on High/Low, not on Open/Close.
3. "...and what spaces" - Spaces (bars in between fractals) are used to calculate probabilities of next fractals.

G.
  • #872
  • Sep 6, 2014 5:39am Sep 6, 2014 5:39am
Quoting jangezkhan
Was wondering if i could get some clarity here - i only stumbled across this thread a few weeks ago and have been reading up (fantastic documents btw) I have also msg'd some people here and got some good answers (thanks FerruFx and Smallcat) Generating SET 1 / 2 / 3 is easy enough; my problem lies with applying the logic my data is using 2011 to 2012 EURUSD 5 min data my SET 1 = 16368 entries my SET 2 = ~940 entries of unique ZZfractals my SET 3 = ~2040 entries my MT4 coding skills are very very bad (almost non-existent) but i've managed to manually...
jangezkhan,


"how in all of GG53's posts the algorithm is seen to do very very short ZZ legs as well as long ones"
Simple: ATR.
Compare volatility (ATR) to previous ZZ leg, expect next swing to occur in shorter/longer pattern based on it.

G.
  • #873
  • Sep 6, 2014 6:05am Sep 6, 2014 6:05am
Quoting gg53
{quote} jangezkhan, "how in all of GG53's posts the algorithm is seen to do very very short ZZ legs as well as long ones" Simple: ATR. Compare volatility (ATR) to previous ZZ leg, expect next swing to occur in shorter/longer pattern based on it. G.
Hi GG53,

But even just saying "ATR" gives little clue at how to apply it in order to 'assume' a short or long pattern? this would also bring up a few questions

1/ does that mean SET 2 - would also hold the ATR of the entire ZZ leg? (i.e is it stored in the databse?)
2/ what period ATR would be used?
3/ explain further please? if the current leg is long, what would the ATR (range?) mean / or say to determine if the next leg is long or short...
4/ if leg is long then how to determine if next leg is short or long
5/ if stored in the database, then is it used as yet another "probability" i.e (past occurences)

Thanks
Jangez
  • #874
  • Sep 6, 2014 7:03am Sep 6, 2014 7:03am
Quoting jangezkhan
{quote} Hi GG53, But even just saying "ATR" gives little clue at how to apply it in order to 'assume' a short or long pattern? this would also bring up a few questions 1/ does that mean SET 2 - would also hold the ATR of the entire ZZ leg? (i.e is it stored in the databse?) 2/ what period ATR would be used? 3/ explain further please? if the current leg is long, what would the ATR (range?) mean / or say to determine if the next leg is long or short... 4/ if leg is long then how to determine if next leg is short or long 5/ if stored in the database,...
jangezkhan,

1. Search this forum for "ATR".
2. When calculating/considering probabilities - should the algo give some "factor" to short/long pattern sequence?
3. My DB doesn't hold ATR data (maybe it should...), but it does hold OHLC data. The algo does the rest.

G.
  • #875
  • Sep 12, 2014 5:38am Sep 12, 2014 5:38am
What is going on.

"Membership Revoked" ?
  • #876
  • Sep 12, 2014 5:57am Sep 12, 2014 5:57am
yea... GG53 is a good guy too - unsure why his membership would be revoked
  • #877
  • Edited 6:47am Sep 12, 2014 6:14am | Edited 6:47am
Membership revoked?

What happened?

and this thread is in the recycle bin?
  • #878
  • Sep 12, 2014 9:06am Sep 12, 2014 9:06am
What is going on...?
  • #879
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:08am Sep 12, 2014 10:08am
Just sent this to FF;

There is a thread on the forum that has been sent to the recycle bin, it was a good thread and I do not understand why this is so, is it possible to have an explanation as to specifically why this is so, I and so many others would appreciate a reason.
This is the thread;
Fractals, ZZ & the Pissing Dog
Regards
Steve
  • #880
  • Sep 12, 2014 10:45am Sep 12, 2014 10:45am
Quoting pipatronic
Just sent this to FF; There is a thread on the forum that has been sent to the recycle bin, it was a good thread and I do not understand why this is so, is it possible to have an explanation as to specifically why this is so, I and so many others would appreciate a reason. This is the thread; Fractals, ZZ & the Pissing Dog Regards Steve
it has been sent there because the thread owner has been revoked, why that is I have no idea, I can't see anything in his posts to warrant it...
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