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Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

  • #301
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:49pm Sep 1, 2014 1:49pm
no one with an edge .. put his hard work (edge) in public ! dont waste your time ! and good luck
  • #302
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:06pm Sep 1, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Finally a volunteer
Well, I'll take a look at what you've got. One of the things I finally arrived at was the need to "cut the noise" out of my trading. So, and this isn't a joke, I trade based on 30m opens. I don't worry about anything else - I found it to be noise...and the primary tool?

wait for it..

excel...

So, happy to check it out too...heck..maybe there's some "happy balance" between what you're describing and what I'm already doing...who knows...won't know without looking...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #303
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:38pm Sep 1, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Finally a volunteer Well yes lack of coding skills is a little bit of problem but not quite.I suppose you can use Excel, or MathLab and can do some basic correlation tests do you? If yes, then i shall code that PROXIMUS Velocity Indicator to print the values to a text file, and then you can analyze the correlations in Excel or Mathlab. I also need to make the acceleration indicator, which would be the RATE OF CHANGE or the VELOCITY indicator or a candle/candle basis. Then basically you will have to look for patterns between the PRICE...
I'll do my best. I'm not really sure what I am letting myself in for now (was expecting more of the "BS manual backtestesting with charts" lol). Though not particularly tech-savvy, I can learn as I go on and it doesn't appear too difficult to run a correlation test in Excel. Perhaps I will be able to come up with something useful, perhaps not but I will give it a go.
  • #304
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:19pm Sep 1, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} Well, I'll take a look at what you've got. One of the things I finally arrived at was the need to "cut the noise" out of my trading. So, and this isn't a joke, I trade based on 30m opens. I don't worry about anything else - I found it to be noise...and the primary tool? wait for it.. excel... So, happy to check it out too...heck..maybe there's some "happy balance" between what you're describing and what I'm already doing...who knows...won't know without looking...
Statistically yes it is noise, the majority of the market is noise, however if there is an inherent bias, it can be more accurately measured with smaller unit sizes, which is M1 data or TICK data if its available.

There are also filters which can filter the data so it is better to use M1 if you do a statistical study.

M30 is only of use if the price range you are looking on is too big to fit inside the screen, so you "unzoom" to M30

Excel is a really powerful tool,i only realized that a few years ago, i was also plotting some charts there, which could be much easier analyzed than MT4 becase i had to code everything into an indicator to export the data which was very annoying.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #305
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:24pm Sep 1, 2014 3:24pm
Quoting Ethlao
{quote} I'll do my best. I'm not really sure what I am letting myself in for now (was expecting more of the "BS manual backtestesting with charts" lol). Though not particularly tech-savvy, I can learn as I go on and it doesn't appear too difficult to run a correlation test in Excel. Perhaps I will be able to come up with something useful, perhaps not but I will give it a go.
Ok.The manual thing is not because i dont trust your manual skills or anything, its just that humans do mistakes involuntarly, and its not very wise to do a statistical research full of errors.

Besides it is done way faster than if you would have to sit there hours in front of the charts bored.

I am at the moment researching some correlations between external factors and the price to see if there is any edge there, i have 6345 candlesticks to analyze, and i`m glad that computers exist, if i were a trader in the 1930 i would be really pissed now, and i would have to waste countless of hours to analyze it on paper.I just love technology
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #306
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:27pm Sep 1, 2014 3:27pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Statistically yes it is noise, the majority of the market is noise, however if there is an inherent bias, it can be more accurately measured with smaller unit sizes, which is M1 data or TICK data if its available. There are also filters which can filter the data so it is better to use M1 if you do a statistical study. M30 is only of use if the price range you are looking on is too big to fit inside the screen, so you "unzoom" to M30 Excel is a really powerful tool,i only realized that a few years ago, i was also plotting some charts there,...
I've pondered doing what I'm doing with smaller time frames...might have to try a few weeks of data or something to see what comes of it..
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #307
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:40pm Sep 1, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} I've pondered doing what I'm doing with smaller time frames...might have to try a few weeks of data or something to see what comes of it..
Yea definitely, the bigger the sample the better, i usually look either at 10 years of data or after the 2010 flash crash, which i find statistically reliable.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #308
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:57pm Sep 1, 2014 3:57pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yea definitely, the bigger the sample the better, i usually look either at 10 years of data or after the 2010 flash crash, which i find statistically reliable.
Interesting...when I started doing this, I did about 1.5 years on the EUR/USD, poured over it all for a while, then, a pretty random charting exercise in excel caused a lightbulb moment...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #309
  • Sep 1, 2014 11:08pm Sep 1, 2014 11:08pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yea definitely, the bigger the sample the better, i usually look either at 10 years of data or after the 2010 flash crash, which i find statistically reliable.
HEY, I NEW TO THIS , but I see something the other day they used 2 year or maybe more on data, let said 2 year chart and 2 year news and then they put together, and they used software to calculation the fundamental , let said news came 4 part for Eur 3:00 and this calculation got to be faster and said if going down or up , OK the point here is, this help you to trade a few second early ,before the news came to the public. sorry if you not understand what i said.
  • #310
  • Sep 2, 2014 4:07pm Sep 2, 2014 4:07pm
Hi all

In my humble opinion, 1 year should be sufficient

traders that placed trades 10 years ago are simply not around –
take a look at the last 12 months – you can see were the institutions are actively trading at levels in the market, they leave their footprints

Good luck all,

Mark
  • #311
  • Sep 3, 2014 3:19am Sep 3, 2014 3:19am
I think that the thread title only attractes newbies, and not advanced traders.
Compounding and consistency is key.
30% / month (average!) ...
Start capital: 300
After 12 months: ~7000
After 24 months: ~230k
After 36 months: ~5.4M
After 48 months: ~125M

The question is: What do you want? Its not about the money, because FX is all about the money, but for what reason do you want x amount of money? FX is simply too hard to do it for "party". Its like to cross the Himalaya to have some date. Its pure nonsense. The input is much more expensive than the output. Time is the only relevant currency.

It only makes sense if you have some start capital, which can compound to a balance after 12 months, which cannot be reached by an average job.
If someone has 300 start capital and wants to reach 7000, he or she will reach the performance of a waiter. But if this person has a balance of lets say 10k, its much harder to find some job which will accomplish this goal. Even if you are an Entrepreneur it gets hard to reach such high output.

Inflation aside I need 1500 EUR / month. Ok. Lets take 1000 months (till death). Thats 1.5M. Thats it. Not even 5.4M. The thing is not to have much money, but to get the money variable out of your life.

------------

Currently we are writing about what? An entry system or a trading system overall?
Forget entries. I have tried it thousands of hours to find an entry strategy, but it only works knowing the full chart history. Price Action will give you some edge, but not the way you want it.

Ok, so we have entry -> trade management (money management) -> exit.
If entry doesnt matter, everything is about the exit.

I am "only" sure in this: High leverage, scalping, tight stops. Thats it. No high TF (use a SMA100 on M1 and you have M5 SMA20).

I dont believe there are thousands of different ways to trade the right way - maximum a dozen. Most people think they have an unique trading style, but in reality its the same as hundreds of others.
  • #312
  • Sep 3, 2014 8:57am Sep 3, 2014 8:57am
Quoting dorn
I think that the thread title only attractes newbies, and not advanced traders.
Newbies can be innovative too.Its not only about experienced professional traders with deep knowledge about the markets, but also about newbies who dont have much knowledge but they are creative and innovative.

There is actually a logical fallacy here, that newbies cant be usefuly is actually wrong.Because those who dont know much yet ,also dont know wrong things, so they can thing much clearer, and still can be creative.

While those who are experienced can be very confused by the amount of information they carry.

I`ve read about an experiment where a big company went to a high school and asked the students business advices in a survey format and they had to wrote also their thoughts in a short essay, they surveyed the whole school and aggregated the info.At the end it turned out that even if they didnt know much about company management and such, they had very very useful and innovative ideas from which some of them were used by the company afterwards.

So you see, creativity has nothing to do with knowledge, and in some cases, those with less knowledge can be more innovative than those with a lot of knowledge

So don't be shy newbies, all ideas are welcome here, feel free to post your thoughts in this thread!
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #313
  • Sep 3, 2014 9:45am Sep 3, 2014 9:45am
Creativity is the ability to find a solution, to overcome limited knowledge. But if someone has not enough knowledge about something, it will be very difficult to be creative in a productive way. Creativity must have strict limitations to be productive.

The advantage of a newbie is that he or she is not jaded. Most people start FX with the goal to be a millionaire, but then something happens that breaks them, they become jaded and a negative self fulfilling prophecy overcomes them.

It is very hard to stay naive while experiencing negative response.
  • #314
  • Sep 3, 2014 10:09am Sep 3, 2014 10:09am
Quoting dorn
Creativity is the ability to find a solution, to overcome limited knowledge. But if someone has not enough knowledge about something, it will be very difficult to be creative in a productive way. Creativity must have strict limitations to be productive. The advantage of a newbie is that he or she is not jaded. Most people start FX with the goal to be a millionaire, but then something happens that breaks them, they become jaded and a negative self fulfilling prophecy overcomes them. It is very hard to stay naive while experiencing negative response....
If a trader is on the desk trading then he cant really think rational can he? It's just too much emotions.

However when he is not in front of charts, and he is thinking about a plan to trade with logical and reasonable arguments for why? and how? to trade questions, then he can experience creative moments.

I know this for a fact because i did too.I was thinking about how to beat the markets, and i couldn't find anything, but then when i didnt thinked about it, it just suddenly camed to me.The brain works very mysteriously, it's as if the knowledge just came from elsewhere and it wasnt in your brain.One might argue that creativity is a "mystical" experience, but thats another topic.

What i`m saying is that, the more of us try, the better it will be, not all of us are creative, but all of use can have creative moments, independent of the knowledge.The knowledge can be a factor, that the more experienced the trader is the more things he will figure out, but knowledge or bad knowledge can sometimes be misleading, especially with all the hype and misinformation that traders get.

Traders should really be open minded to all methods, and then use rational thinking to separate the BS from the Holy Grail.

==========

Anyway, @ your previous post, i dont really care about the compounding or the execution of the strategy as i said in previous posts, i only care about the edge that the strategy holds, the execution of the strategy can be planned later, but we need the edge first, thats our priority nr 1.

Also i dont believe in scalping, the market is just too random in ultra short term, if you want a bias, you need it to be consistant.There are no glass balls in forex which forecast every tick accurately
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #315
  • Sep 4, 2014 7:33am Sep 4, 2014 7:33am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Also i dont believe in scalping, the market is just too random in ultra short term, if you want a bias, you need it to be consistant.There are no glass balls in forex which forecast every tick accurately
On scalping, there are a few different definitions of it so let's be clear what we mean by that. From reading Al Brooks books, he defines any trade as a scalp or scalping trade if you are not prepared to hold that trade through one or more pullbacks. If you are prepared to hold through one or more pullbacks then it's a swing trade. I like this definition because it gives more flexibility to the term scalping. For example you could scalp the Daily chart for 70 pips or the 4 Hour for 30 pips - scalping does not have to be just trading on ultra low timeframes for a few pips. Having said that, I'm not coming down on the side of scalping vs swing trading (swing trading setups can tend to have better RR ratio on your side for example). Just wanted to be clear what we mean by scalping and say that with a high enough win ratio it can be a profitable strategy.
  • #316
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:38am Sep 4, 2014 11:38am
I would define a scalper who has targets up to or around 10 pips. The used TF is irrelevant. I would not use pullbacks for definition, because then you have to define what pullbacks really are.
But why scalping? Because using compounding 5pips * 10 times is much more potent than 50pips * 1 time. Yes, the more we trade the more spread, but lower market exposure is more important than some 0.5 pips. If someone targets 5 pips, 0.5 pips is almost nothing. Only the risk of slippage is much higher, but as long as news are avoided (news on 8am - stop at 7am till 9am and watch spread) and the broker is decent, it should be ok.
  • #317
  • Sep 5, 2014 2:58am Sep 5, 2014 2:58am
you guys can compare your hypothesis with demo forex contest winner who has not only made his account 1000% a month but more. The problem with 10 pip per trade, why stop with only 10 pips when you could have more? and the more you trade, the riskier it becomes.

Here check the trading statement of each winner. http://www.armadamarkets.com/interview-july/
contact me for a managed account
  • #318
  • Sep 5, 2014 3:26am Sep 5, 2014 3:26am
Quote
Can you briefly describe your strategy?
- Scalping of retracements, very high leverages (there’s no other way to win the contest) and a bit of good luck!
What do you consider the best type of education for a trader?
What can you advice to participants, who will be now taking part in future rounds?
- Go to the limit with leverage and good luck!
The winner's strategy is to be lucky or broke. In a constest with 1000s of participants it is almost certain to have a lucky winner.
How many times in a row can you be lucky? Wouldn't it be better to convert your brokerage account into lotery tickets for a 100000% growth in a day?
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #319
  • Sep 5, 2014 3:04pm Sep 5, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting Ethlao
{quote} On scalping, there are a few different definitions of it so let's be clear what we mean by that. From reading Al Brooks books, he defines any trade as a scalp or scalping trade if you are not prepared to hold that trade through one or more pullbacks. If you are prepared to hold through one or more pullbacks then it's a swing trade. I like this definition because it gives more flexibility to the term scalping. For example you could scalp the Daily chart for 70 pips or the 4 Hour for 30 pips - scalping does not have to be just trading on ultra...
Well still how do you know when that swing ends, what is the threshold ? Consecutive green/red candles ? And if the next candle is different color than the other you end the scalp ?

Well then you run into the problem of timeframes again, which is a fallacy

Its really hard to talk scientifically about the market when these concepts are as far from science as possible, its art or subjectivity, but definitely not an objective quantifiable method.

The art of trading, there is a book called like that, probably.The sad thing about arts is that arts will only fill your soul with pleasure, but not your pocket
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #320
  • Sep 5, 2014 5:49pm Sep 5, 2014 5:49pm
Hi Guys... Average 1:12 R/R with 48% hit rate.. 16 win 17lose (5sl) 2Months of backtesting
TP STOP LOSS 5 pips on all
35
92
80
9
62
126
32
27
56
142
128
35
20
57
35
32
Probably the worlds best currency trader.
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