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A theory of trading

  • #41
  • Sep 2, 2014 11:58am Sep 2, 2014 11:58am
EURCAD, M30:

Let's try, Short @ 1.434

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  • #42
  • Edited 12:22pm Sep 2, 2014 12:10pm | Edited 12:22pm
thank You Ryan. I need to think it over... as for now I know that I know nothing

I see/read people around (here at FF and other forex websites) loosing a lot of money. Maybe this is my bad luck but I haven't found anybody or anyplace where people are able to earn money day by day. And I am really interested why is that? I mean it is really strange - nobody who succeeds? It sounds impossible. And people rather tend to share the success... The only logical conclusion is that nobody wins on a long period of time. This is rather philosophic and sociological problem... Sorry if I am off topic

regards
Szymon
Mind is like a parachute - it is useful only if open
  • #43
  • Edited 12:45pm Sep 2, 2014 12:34pm | Edited 12:45pm
Quote
Maybe this is my bad luck but I haven't found anybody or anyplace where people are able to earn money day by day. And I am really interested why is that? I mean it is really strange - nobody who succeeds? It sounds impossible. And people rather tend to share the success... The only logical conclusion is that nobody wins on a long period of time. This is rather philosophic and sociological problem... Sorry if I am off topic

IMO you're wrong.

They are winning traders on a long period time. They just don't spend their time on public forums. I'm a member of one of this not-free forum and they are succesfull traders on there. When you make much money from your trading, you can 1) travel around the world 2) start other business 3) become a fund manager.

Why would you spend (waste?) your time on public forums seriously?

Well, the truth is I can't say that a lot of traders make money for a living but I know some of them. (on private forums, people show their live results)

1) They don't trade fx spot
2) They trade for over 5 years
3) They are microstructure traders.
  • #44
  • Sep 2, 2014 12:51pm Sep 2, 2014 12:51pm
I am rather mathematical mind and I always try to follow logic. And using logical thinking it is rather me who is wrong because You are much more experienced than me. To be honest You are the first person whom I 'met' who says directly that knows somebody who is able to trade for living.
You definately inspired me - I have to google 'market microstructure theory'
thank You, regards
Mind is like a parachute - it is useful only if open
  • #45
  • Sep 2, 2014 1:11pm Sep 2, 2014 1:11pm
Consistency in the FX markets is a lot easier than the forums make it out to be. Especially here at FF, unfortunately. A gambling approach is usually the overtone with most methods, and unfortunately, it is the downfall of most aspiring traders. Take a business approach towards the concept of inventory, and things will start to click. I do hate talking about this stuff in public forums because it does sound a bit "cryptic", and that is not my intention at all. I'm only 24, and have been doing this for a living for 3 years now, and I also know I'm nowhere near being as smart as a lot of people in this community. It's just a matter of your approach...do you want to gamble, or do you want consistency?
  • #46
  • Sep 2, 2014 1:31pm Sep 2, 2014 1:31pm
Quote
It's just a matter of your approach...do you want to gamble, or do you want consistency?


  • #47
  • Sep 2, 2014 2:04pm Sep 2, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting tunera
{quote} i will look to sell around london open if price will hold at current levels, seems good
I am impressed. This is exactly the ability of 'reading' the chart I am focused on. The problem for me is that as soon as I find a kind of a 'volume pattern' - the next step is that I find the examples where it doesn't work. And I am at the start point.

Below You can find the screen of GU again and the rectangle I was writing about yesterday. When I am looking at the chart now - the price action around 1.66 is clear for me. But it definately was not 24 hours ago.

regards

ps. Tunera - what do You mean by 'finding an edge' - probably my English is not good enough, I dont get it (checked in the translator to be sure I recognize the word)
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Mind is like a parachute - it is useful only if open
  • #48
  • Edited 2:24pm Sep 2, 2014 2:11pm | Edited 2:24pm
Quote
I am impressed. This is exactly the ability of 'reading' the chart I am focused on. The problem for me is that as soon as I find a kind of a 'volume pattern' - the next step is that I find the examples where it doesn't work. And I am at the start point.

It can't work all the thime.

Attachment

I define myself as an intraday/intraweek trader...but only 10 trades from July despite watching over 20 pairs.

At first, I wanted to trade everyday and being right of all the time. Then I understood.

I'm waiting for 50 trades and if results are good, I'll open a 10K account.
  • #49
  • Sep 2, 2014 2:12pm Sep 2, 2014 2:12pm
Quoting tunera
{quote} I am one of the few traders that is profitable and trade for a living, and I'm the only one that I know, so can't really speak for the others (if ever they exist). As for me I don't visit special private forums or anything like that, and I can say that to trade for a living all you need is an edge, a knowledge that let you make safe and constant gains again and again. Unluckily this kind of edge can't be found on Internet (no matter of public or private forums), you have to find it by yourself, try to think like a scientist, develope your...

Thk you, keep posting
  • #50
  • Sep 2, 2014 2:20pm Sep 2, 2014 2:20pm
Quoting Unabletrader
{quote} I'm waiting for 50 trades and if results are good, I'll open a 10K account.
How long/ how many years/months are You waiting/trying?
Mind is like a parachute - it is useful only if open
  • #51
  • Sep 2, 2014 2:22pm Sep 2, 2014 2:22pm
Quoting Szymon
{quote} How long/ how many years/months are You waiting/trying?

1 year and two months.
  • #52
  • Sep 2, 2014 2:29pm Sep 2, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting Unabletrader
{quote} 1 year and two months.
In my opinion if You have already steady income - Your result is very good. Trading is just like any other occupation - nobody can be good at it without many days/weeks/months of studing and mastering the skills and understanding the essence.
Mind is like a parachute - it is useful only if open
  • #53
  • Sep 2, 2014 2:38pm Sep 2, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting Szymon
{quote} I am impressed. This is exactly the ability of 'reading' the chart I am focused on. The problem for me is that as soon as I find a kind of a 'volume pattern' - the next step is that I find the examples where it doesn't work. And I am at the start point. Below You can find the screen of GU again and the rectangle I was writing about yesterday. When I am looking at the chart now - the price action around 1.66 is clear for me. But it definately was not 24 hours ago. regards ps. Tunera - what do You mean by 'finding an edge' - probably my English...
Yeah it was perfect, at london open price was already sitting at friday lows (my ideally first target) so i didn't sold it at all (too much low!), but i had some luck on oil though (similar pattern, but selloff started after london open).

With edge i mean the "ability" (nobody have it at the beginning, but after you watch the market everyday for many years, some pieces of the puzzle start to fit together) to just recognize when the market is ready to move in one direction, and when you know what's probably going to happen, you can make money (not all the time, but most of the time).

Take for example eurusd today, the whole market was buying heavily usd, all gbpusd down, nzdusd, gold, oil, usdjpy etc..
Yet, eurusd hasn't dropped.
My personal opinion about this, is that the sellers are covering and early buyers are buying, this can mean that a bounce in the next few days is a possibiliy.
You must be like a doctor, spot the symptoms of the market, make a decent diagnosis, and then trade it.
Everytime you are wrong you learn something new, after a while you become a good "doctor".
  • #54
  • Sep 2, 2014 3:21pm Sep 2, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting tunera
{quote} Yeah it was perfect, at london open price was already sitting at friday lows (my ideally first target) so i didn't sold it at all (too much low!), but i had some luck on oil though (similar pattern, but selloff started after london open). With edge i mean the "ability" (nobody have it at the beginning, but after you watch the market everyday for many years, some pieces of the puzzle start to fit together) to just recognize when the market is ready to move in one direction, and when you know what's probably going to happen, you can make money...
Thank You for sharing. In my opinion usdjpy is also at the interesting price levels with interesting price action. Yet I am waiting there and wathcing only. As soon as I recognize anything I will try to post and would be grateful for comments.
regards
Mind is like a parachute - it is useful only if open
  • #55
  • Sep 2, 2014 4:23pm Sep 2, 2014 4:23pm
Quoting tunera
{quote}My personal opinion about this, is that the sellers are covering and early buyers are buying, this can mean that a bounce in the next few days is a possibiliy.
That could be the case. We are in the last days before futures expiration - when it is quite often situation the price EU goes up.
And 1.313 price level looks interesting because of the gap and the last volumes.
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Mind is like a parachute - it is useful only if open
  • #56
  • Sep 3, 2014 7:58am Sep 3, 2014 7:58am
Quoting Szymon
{quote} That could be the case. We are in the last days before futures expiration - when it is quite often situation the price EU goes up. And 1.313 price level looks interesting because of the gap and the last volumes. {image}
seems like a shy bounce attemp is in play, a full successful bounce would bring the pair back to 1.3220, while a failure would bring the pair down again to the lows.

Difficult to say what will be the case, but for now buyers are trying to make their bounce, keeping in mind that the trend is down (and the risks associated with it), i still favour the buyers.

Still 70 pips to be made in case the bounce will be successful, i give it a try.

Wish me good luck!
  • #57
  • Sep 3, 2014 8:51am Sep 3, 2014 8:51am
I closed my EURCAD trade at breakevenl. News release.
  • #58
  • Sep 3, 2014 11:31am Sep 3, 2014 11:31am
Euraud buy.

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  • #59
  • Sep 4, 2014 4:14am Sep 4, 2014 4:14am
Quoting Unabletrader
Euraud buy. {image}
next great call
respect
rgds
Mind is like a parachute - it is useful only if open
  • #60
  • Sep 4, 2014 4:18am Sep 4, 2014 4:18am
Quoting Unabletrader
EURCAD, M30: Let's try, Short @ 1.434 {image}
I must say that You definately know the game, guys. It is sometimes unbelievable...
And You inspire me to continue the research.
As for now I am short on usdjpy as I was writing, @105.05 exactly. So far it is ok, my first profit target is @ 104.4 - comments very welcome

regards
Szymon
Mind is like a parachute - it is useful only if open
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