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Let's Trade Options

  • #4,641
  • Edited Aug 30, 2014 10:39am Aug 29, 2014 11:10pm | Edited Aug 30, 2014 10:39am
Quoting The Fool
It likes its channel, anyway. Any hard move through the 2sd line (typ Bolli bands 20,2) can be sold for a $2 pullback. Volume is good and spreads are tight, especially on the monthlies. Good news for TLT options traders if its iv is ramping up. But I couldn't tell you where it'll be in 3 months. I just think the long bonds should diverge from US equities, up or down, we'll see. {image}
I am looking for a spike to $120+, then I may go short (ie, sell calls). I am also directionally long (re: TLT $121/122 calls debit calendar), but what the hell. I'll likely be waiting for Mario to show his hand, at any rate.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,642
  • Aug 29, 2014 11:14pm Aug 29, 2014 11:14pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} looking at that chart, I guess there selling puts
Bet there's a lot of that, the hedgies who bought "cheap" shares in the July dip to $92 are selling puts against those at strikes $92 and below.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,643
  • Aug 29, 2014 11:23pm Aug 29, 2014 11:23pm
I am still watching this little pig. EWZ etf goes parabolic while Brazil goes into recession, nice. If the recession don't do it, any kind of tightening noise from the CB's will shoot this down.

http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmar...rrons&ru=yahoo
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,644
  • Aug 30, 2014 1:23am Aug 30, 2014 1:23am
heavy fundie risks coming in view, ECB next Thursday is a big one. Markets could slump if Draghi shows up empty-handed, the expectation of more QE from the CB's has been helping the bull market limp ever upwards. He can cure the limp if he springs a bunch of new QE proposals for the Eurozone.

Beyond that there is FOMC on 9/18, two weeks after D(raghi)-Day. Same ol' shit, taper still tapering, interest rates to be kept low SNAP! They do something new and provide positive guidance re: the first rate hike. Not if, but when, and when is what?

REIT's to fall when the shtf finally. NLY one of the bigger ones with good volume. Check out that dividend.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,645
  • Aug 30, 2014 1:38am Aug 30, 2014 1:38am
Quoting The Fool
heavy fundie risks coming in view
Somehow, I got a bad feeling...everybody wants to see a correction and I can just see it over in those bushes, waiting, lurking...I did drink a whole pot of coffee today, though...maybe that's it....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,646
  • Aug 30, 2014 12:56pm Aug 30, 2014 12:56pm
..euro is the new carry funder - the Eurozone is the new Japan? Maybe...the whole world is getting japanned?

http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/08/...technical.html

"The ECB meeting is key, and ahead of it, the euro could lose a cent, but remain above $1.30. We see a better chance of a rate cut than the unveiling of an ABS purchase program, or some other variant of QE that many other observers have emphasized. Many observers do think Draghi pre-committed ECB action in his Jackson Hole speech, especially the improvised additions."

"Many suggest the carry-trade is back in vogue....."

"Moreover, Japan is no longer the low-interest rate country. Overnight money in the euro area briefly exchanged hands at less than zero. The German yield curve, out to three years, had a negative yield at the end of the week. None of the Japanese curve is negative. At the long-end consider that Switzerland's benchmark 10-year bond yield is a couple of basis points through Japan."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,647
  • Edited Aug 31, 2014 12:10am Aug 30, 2014 11:23pm | Edited Aug 31, 2014 12:10am
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpm-se...123847396.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...id=yhoo.inline

...a perfect storm is brewing. Well, maybe it's not perfect. Maybe it will just blow over. Or....EU:Russia row over Ukraine keeps escalating, threats keep flying, new sanctions enacted, then Germany balks at QE for the e-zone and the ECB brings nothing to the punchbowl. All in the same week. Eurozone markets slide, US markets follow, euro sells off, UST's get bought. It's a'brewing....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,648
  • Aug 31, 2014 8:27pm Aug 31, 2014 8:27pm
Daddy won't ya take me down to Muhlenburg County
Down by the Green River, where Paradise lay?

I'm sorry my son, but you're too late in askin'
Mr. Peabody's coal train has hauled it away.

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,649
  • Edited 8:44pm Aug 31, 2014 8:33pm | Edited 8:44pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-coal...010920780.html
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,650
  • Edited 1:44am Sep 1, 2014 1:28am | Edited 1:44am
EUR/USD $1.28 = EUO $20 m/l

EUO Jan '15 $20 calls are $0.20...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,651
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:15am Sep 1, 2014 2:15am
I like the IBM chart....not been able to hold $195 since Jun 2013...would like to see it push up there again. Next earnings 10/16.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,652
  • Edited 2:45am Sep 1, 2014 2:34am | Edited 2:45am
CHL looks like it's about to jet, ala late Summer 2007. Jan '15 $80 calls only $0.20.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,653
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:54am Sep 1, 2014 2:54am
flatline gonna break in my lifetime (GLD)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,654
  • Sep 1, 2014 8:17am Sep 1, 2014 8:17am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Somehow, I got a bad feeling...... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCCyvAwbbso
everybody gotta die sometime fool...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #4,655
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:48pm Sep 1, 2014 12:48pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} everybody gotta die sometime fool...
semper fi, brother...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,656
  • Sep 1, 2014 9:19pm Sep 1, 2014 9:19pm
Russia to be cut out of SWIFT?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society...ecommunication

RSX heading back <$21?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,657
  • Sep 1, 2014 10:58pm Sep 1, 2014 10:58pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-vo...154018544.html

"Recently, however, the VIX has been running at about twice the actual volatility of the S&P 500, so volatility sellers have actually been doing quite well. That is because those sellers are essentially selling expected volatility and buying actualvolatility, and that spread has been relatively wide of late. "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,658
  • Sep 2, 2014 7:19am Sep 2, 2014 7:19am
Quoting The Fool
Russia to be cut out of SWIFT? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society...ecommunication RSX heading back <$21? {image}
Hey TF, I have been looking at RSX also...

Weekly chart... I think there will be no serious buying until $20
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Also, check the volume and OI of Nov 21 puts
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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,659
  • Sep 2, 2014 8:56am Sep 2, 2014 8:56am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hey TF, I have been looking at RSX also... Weekly chart... I think there will be no serious buying until $20 {image} Also, check the volume and OI of Nov 21 puts {image}
funny I don't see that 23,xxx vol now on the Yahoo Nov chain now...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,660
  • Sep 2, 2014 11:16am Sep 2, 2014 11:16am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} funny I don't see that 23,xxx vol now on the Yahoo Nov chain now...
I don't see it either. That was obviously volume on Friday... but then why it is not in OI now? It is not settled yet or what?

Man, I was out for a few hours, just look at TSLA...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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