Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 235 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #4,681
  • Aug 31, 2014 9:58am Aug 31, 2014 9:58am
Quoting Psych0F0x
{quote} Here are my comments on your charts, please reevaluate your view on this pair. {image} So we can conclude that we are no longer in a downtrend, longs are allowed. {image} On the weekly we can draw an uptrend, so again, time for longs. Daily chart is definitely down, so I'd wait for it to realign with a HTF zone and go long. Please feel free to scrutinize my analysis, I'm still learning
Thanks for your comment Psych0F0x... I'am agree with you for Monthly chart but weekly chart I've to explain my opinion to you... here is my explain about weekly chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDproWeekly_modif.jpg Size: 69 KB


2 areas of supply are valid because the supply was taken out previous demand (white rectangle) and make a lower low (white circle). any comment from the others...?? CMIIW
  • #4,682
  • Aug 31, 2014 11:08am Aug 31, 2014 11:08am
Quoting Psych0F0x
{quote} Here are my comments on your charts, please reevaluate your view on this pair. {image} So we can conclude that we are no longer in a downtrend, longs are allowed. {image} On the weekly we can draw an uptrend, so again, time for longs. Daily chart is definitely down, so I'd wait for it to realign with a HTF zone and go long. Please feel free to scrutinize my analysis, I'm still learning
These are the last two valid WK trendlines. We are not allowed to draw an uptrend TL because we didn't make a HH. Your MN analysis was correct.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Keep your blades sharp!
  • #4,683
  • Aug 31, 2014 2:33pm Aug 31, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting Nametaker
{quote} These are the last two valid WK trendlines. We are not allowed to draw an uptrend TL because we didn't make a HH. Your MN analysis was correct. {image}
My apologies, my weekly analysis was indeed incorrect. However, I have to comment on your analysis so here's my redo of the weekly:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Sonigl's supply zones were correct but not the small demand zone that you also drew. I redrew the proper most-recent trendline for the weekly and we can't draw any other trendlines since there are no higher highs or lower lows and there aren't enough elements to appease the trendline rules. One could argue that you could draw those trendlines just looking at price movement, and they might be trendlines on lower timeframes, but it just means that they're not as strong as drawing the trendlines drawn according to the rules, thus making them significantly lower probability analysis. We have to follow the rules, 3 CP patterns or obvious peaks/valleys.

Price is forming a triangle pattern so it's consolidating after the downtrend break.

This low in the curve I would not think of going short. I would wait for some fresh demand to go long instead or wait for price to break monthly demand to go short.

Thanks for sharing your analyses, this is helping me immensely in understanding and integrating all this knowledge
  • #4,684
  • Aug 31, 2014 5:58pm Aug 31, 2014 5:58pm
Quoting Psych0F0x
{quote} My apologies, my weekly analysis was indeed incorrect. However, I have to comment on your analysis so here's my redo of the weekly: {image} Sonigl's supply zones were correct but not the small demand zone that you also drew. I redrew the proper most-recent trendline for the weekly and we can't draw any other trendlines since there are no higher highs or lower lows and there aren't enough elements to appease the trendline rules. One could argue that you could draw those trendlines just looking at price movement, and they might be trendlines...
Just a quick note on your screenshot my friend. The current WK blue zone at 1257 is valid demand zone because an imbalance that breaks the TL on its timeframe is considered automatically a zone, in this case demand zone, only if it's supported by one timeframe higher than the one you have detected the imbalance. In this case, is the new WK imbalance that broke the TL reacting to 1 higher timeframe than the WK? Yes, MN, then it's valid demand zone.

This is a rule that has not been added to the 1st thread because Forex Factory system that not allow me to add more content or screenshots.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,685
  • Aug 31, 2014 7:19pm Aug 31, 2014 7:19pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Just a quick note on your screenshot my friend. The current WK blue zone at 1257 is valid demand zone because an imbalance that breaks the TL on its timeframe is considered automatically a zone, in this case demand zone, only if it's supported by one timeframe higher than the one you have detected the imbalance. In this case, is the new WK imbalance that broke the TL reacting to 1 higher timeframe than the WK? Yes, MN, then it's valid demand zone. This is a rule that has not been added to the 1st thread because Forex Factory system that...
Thanks, I have picked that rule up already through all of your videos, but the main concern was whether that trendline is valid. Would you consider it? We need two peaks or 3 CP patterns and I'm not really convinced.
  • #4,686
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:22am Sep 1, 2014 2:22am
Quoting Psych0F0x
{quote} Thanks, I have picked that rule up already through all of your videos, but the main concern was whether that trendline is valid. Would you consider it? We need two peaks or 3 CP patterns and I'm not really convinced.
You are right we need 2 peaks/valleys or 3 CP's for a valid TL. There was a peak just prior to the CP in which I drew the TL but price then created a CP and dropped again. I knew what level I was looking for so I adjusted the TL to market dynamics, that is all. But keep doing what you have been doing 2 P/V and 3 CP's.
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #4,687
  • Sep 1, 2014 6:56pm Sep 1, 2014 6:56pm
Quoting Nametaker
{quote} You are right we need 2 peaks/valleys or 3 CP's for a valid TL. There was a peak just prior to the CP in which I drew the TL but price then created a CP and dropped again. I knew what level I was looking for so I adjusted the TL to market dynamics, that is all. But keep doing what you have been doing 2 P/V and 3 CP's.
Ah thanks, that makes sense
  • #4,688
  • Sep 1, 2014 11:29pm Sep 1, 2014 11:29pm
Quoting Psych0F0x
{quote} Thanks, I have picked that rule up already through all of your videos, but the main concern was whether that trendline is valid. Would you consider it? We need two peaks or 3 CP patterns and I'm not really convinced.
Dr. Alfonso has explain well, But I con't understand. Please anybody explain in chart which is more easily understand for fresh learner like me.

Thank you Psych0F0x for your explanation

bye
ajentha
  • #4,689
  • Sep 2, 2014 3:14am Sep 2, 2014 3:14am
Quoting sonigl
XAUUSD TOP DOWN ANALYSIS Monthly {image} Monthly is down Weekly {image} Weekly is down and make 2 peaks Lower High Daily {image} Daily is down with 2 peaks and lower low, price still on 44% so next week I'll try to find good pullback on H1/H4 to SHORT with the target on demand @1247 - 1240. any comment..? I'm waiting your comment pleaseee.... Regards, Sonigl
from my last analysis.... here is my SHORT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,690
  • Sep 2, 2014 11:39am Sep 2, 2014 11:39am
Quoting sonigl
{quote} from my last analysis.... here is my SHORT {image}
Dear Sonigl,

Thank you
  • #4,691
  • Sep 2, 2014 5:58pm Sep 2, 2014 5:58pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} This is a rule that has not been added to the 1st thread because Forex Factory system that not allow me to add more content or screenshots. Alfonso
Hi Alfonso, if you have such restrictions here on forexfactory, why do not just copy all the 1st homework page into a google or other blog/site and maintain it there, simply referencing it from here?
Just a question/suggestion for not taking a no for an answer
Thank you for your great help and the lot of work you put in this whole thing for helping!!
  • #4,692
  • Sep 3, 2014 11:51am Sep 3, 2014 11:51am
Couple of quick questions (questions in attachment):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Or am I looking too closely at the charts?
  • #4,693
  • Sep 3, 2014 2:15pm Sep 3, 2014 2:15pm
Quoting Psych0F0x
Couple of quick questions (questions in attachment): {image} Or am I looking too closely at the charts?
As long as a bigger timeframe demand zone is not in control or a clear and obvious flip zone, you can draw that TL, else you should short in confirmation. MN is in a clear uptrend, shorts are good based on D1 trends in a bigger TF or flip zone does not gain control. Hope it makes sense.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,694
  • Edited 10:17am Sep 4, 2014 9:35am | Edited 10:17am
Alfonso, I'd like to thank you for your hard work and for providing so much information free of charge. I know it takes up a lot of time to put everything together.
I've been reading your texts and watching your videos for about a week now, and I'll surely subscribe to your website and challenge.

Can I get feedback to my analysis on the USDCAD from the experienced members, please?

Monthly:
https://charts.mql5.com/5/609/usdcad...services-2.png

Daily:
https://charts.mql5.com/5/609/usdcad...services-2.png

Would these two entries be valid? First one failed and then the 2nd one worked with a 1:3 risk:reward.


And the AUDUSD:

Monthly:
https://charts.mql5.com/5/610/audusd...l-services.png


Daily:
https://charts.mql5.com/5/610/audusd...l-services.png

Thanks!
  • #4,695
  • Sep 5, 2014 1:03am Sep 5, 2014 1:03am
Quoting tracer
Alfonso, I'd like to thank you for your hard work and for providing so much information free of charge. I know it takes up a lot of time to put everything together. I've been reading your texts and watching your videos for about a week now, and I'll surely subscribe to your website and challenge. Can I get feedback to my analysis on the USDCAD from the experienced members, please? Monthly: {image} Daily: {image} Would these two entries be valid? First one failed and then the 2nd one worked with a 1:3 risk:reward. And the AUDUSD: Monthly: {image}...
You are welcome, thanks for your kind words, doing my best to help others here at the free forum, but as you can see most won't even ask questions and it's free. It's human nature, I am used to it

Regarding your questions.... The USDCAD long was not valid, it was described in the private forum but let me tell you over here so you understand the logic behind it.

This is a Weekly supply zone, in control. D1 demand zones with single doji at base is low odds as rules specify. So D1 demand was not valid, it was removed. Now TL broken, we need price at a high odds WK demand for longs

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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As far as the AUDUSD short is related, this has been mentioned in some webinars as well. Price is within a non 2:1 MN supply zone and descending MN TL is broken so MN is consolidation. The aussie is still strong and WK demand is in control, shorts are lower odds unless we get a great confirmation that removes D1 supply zones, but that hasn't happened yet, so shorts are not allowed, longs were allowed at the WK demand zone.

Hope it makes sense my friend
Have a great day!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,696
  • Sep 5, 2014 1:04am Sep 5, 2014 1:04am
Crazy how the dollar index is rallying and euro is dropping, showing us the strong correlation between the index and the european economy, moreover after Draghis's yesterday announcement. Long is the way to go with the US index, shorts with the euro.

There are things to note here, the US Index correlates inversely with the majors, but if we see that some major is not reacting at all then it will probably mean that pair is now out of correlation due to other fundamentals related to that economy in particular.

Brand new potential WK demand being formed right at an important WK flip zone. New D1 demand areas formed.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,697
  • Sep 5, 2014 4:51am Sep 5, 2014 4:51am
Hello fellow traders!

Hope the weather is awesome in your zone and you are having a great summer time, it's just perfect where I live! I returend from 1 month holidays in several places and I'm getting back to normal, but thinking about my next destination now

Most of you know about the existance of a private supply and demand community where we are fully focused on following mechanical supply and demand rules at Set and Forget community and Forex Factory thread as strictly as possible.

Let me explain in detail 2 of the latest Daily long setups that were planned in the community way before they happened.

CADJPY & NIKKEI INDEX DAILY LONGS:

I've created a 15 minutes video where I explain two of the latest Daily long setups I took based on the rules laid out in this supply and demand thread. One of the trades, CADJPY D1 long was shown quickly in the last webinars, we didn't go through it because we were going through the realignment rules, but I held that one and it was a really nice runner.

This video shows how all pieces of the puzzle fitting together to provide high odds entries based on the rules set most of you are mindful of by now.

This video shows the Set and Forget private community, how these traces are proposed way before they happen and explained in detail. In one of them, CADJPY D1 long, the member that spotted it did not take it in the end because he thought "too much" and added a new rule that is not part of the existing set of rules. Myself and others took it, so we got a nice winner, unfortunately he did not, but he learnt the lesson.

  1. Monthly and Weekly areas of demand in control, what to do? Go long. Shorts forbidden
  2. Trades were posted before the fact, that is, way before the trades happened and explained in more or less detailed and discussed if there are doubts
  3. Trades are posted by myself and other members as you will see in the video
  4. The community is not a signal service, we all want to learn how to fish and not be fed with fishes
  5. We all help each other discussing the nuances of the supply and demand rules and price action that will help us locate high odds trades. Many of them will be losses, but who cares? Probabilities work like that
  6. Others help by helping to code new functions and tools, some with other skills, it's what a community is all about

The short 15 minutes video can be watched here:

Inserted Video



Have a great weekend, enjoy it with your familly and friends!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,698
  • Sep 5, 2014 6:04am Sep 5, 2014 6:04am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} You are welcome, thanks for your kind words, doing my best to help others here at the free forum, but as you can see most won't even ask questions and it's free. It's human nature, I am used to it Regarding your questions.... The USDCAD long was not valid, it was described in the private forum but let me tell you over here so you understand the logic behind it. This is a Weekly supply zone, in control. D1 demand zones with single doji at base is low odds as rules specify. So D1 demand was not valid, it was removed. Now TL broken, we need...
Thank you for the detailed explanation, Alfonso.
I must have missed the single doji at base rule. I though that the littlest time the price stays at a level, the stronger it is.

I'm still catching up with the webinars, and taking notes of the procedure, so it's as standard as possible.

If I may ask, how many trades per month do you spot, on average, with the D1/WK/MN combnation?

Thank you once again for your shares and help.
  • #4,699
  • Sep 6, 2014 10:36am Sep 6, 2014 10:36am
Hello all fellow traders and Alfonso, i have been trading the setup since few months, i am posting GBPCAD setup and i am trading the pair since last 2 weeks. I'm a swing trader but adding the monthly chart also for trend show.

Top Down Analysis:

MN Up
WK Down And at 50%
Daily Down And at 50% (Just created the Original Fresh Supply)
H4 Down (Created the Original Fresh Supply with 2:1 imbalance)

Monthly:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gcadmn.jpg Size: 98 KB


Weekly:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gcadweekly.jpg Size: 97 KB


Daily:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gcaddaily.jpg Size: 105 KB


H4:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,700
  • Sep 7, 2014 3:29am Sep 7, 2014 3:29am
Quoting Solomon1a
Hello all fellow traders and Alfonso, i have been trading the setup since few months, i am posting GBPCAD setup and i am trading the pair since last 2 weeks. I'm a swing trader but adding the monthly chart also for trend show. Top Down Analysis: MN Up WK Down And at 50% Daily Down And at 50% (Just created the Original Fresh Supply) H4 Down (Created the Original Fresh Supply with 2:1 imbalance) Monthly: {image} Weekly: {image} Daily: {image} H4: {image}
That short setup on GBPAUD looks good, looking at the same thing if market conditions doe not change. Pound is weak and aussie is still strong, so it's double correlation for gbpaud short. Let's see what the market brings!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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