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Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

  • #281
  • Aug 31, 2014 5:50am Aug 31, 2014 5:50am
Quoting albchr
{quote} I shall try this. Thank you VBP.
Let me know when you have a week of 30m data - I'll add to the pot....

Make your first week on your favorite pair around 1st of May.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #282
  • Aug 31, 2014 6:26am Aug 31, 2014 6:26am
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} Let me know when you have a week of 30m data - I'll add to the pot.... Make your first week on your favorite pair around 1st of May.
Will do. I assume you mean pick among the majors? Because my 2 "favorite" pairs are Beasts.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #283
  • Aug 31, 2014 11:15am Aug 31, 2014 11:15am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Two points. 1. Naked punting means directional trading without a hedge. That, is for idiots according to the video. 2. Most trends do not end violently. Most trends, if not all, will have an attempt the highest high of the run with subsequent failure. There is also a rollover of most momentum indicators attached to the chart. Are you trying to say that you want to know precisely when a trend begins and ends? You are not trying to say that, are you?
Acording to the video but it can be generallized as: placing trades at random, or have no clue why that trade is placed.

And yes, i dont know when that trend ends,and i dont know if a trend is in a place, is is wise to enter it now because it can end any time.It is too much undertainty and that is what i`m trying to find out.

Quoting PipMeUp
A retracement is not the end of the trend. The cause of the uptrend never stopped. Yet 20 out of 30 traders in the toy example were IN THE LOSS.
You cannot know which retracement is the end of the trend, you cannot know if a retracement doesnt turn out to be a reversal or a crash.

You cannot know this by simple guessing, and obviously not wise to put money in a guessing scheme.

In forex the buy& hold method doesnt work very well because the market mechanics are a little bit different here, i just researched this this weekend and i found some really interesting stuff about the difference between different markets.

Quoting PipMeUp
You don't choose the instruments that form your basket based on your liking. They have to cointegrate. A well known method is "producers-consumers" relationship. For instance oranges producers and orange juices makers, oil vs airlines, steel vs automotive... But nowadays those companies hedge themselves!=
Obviously, i said you dont choose pairs randomy, or by your liking, you choose those which have some sort of events going (USD/RUB Ukraine crisis,NZD/CHF swiss weakness due to EUR peg)

Quote
Isn't it the same problem to solve?

I also tend to agree with Davit that the rubber band effect is not so true. At least the rubber band seems to break when strechted to much.

Not really, because detection & cause are not equivalent. You can see very well a bearish EUR/USD trend,its obvious, but if you dont know the cause of it, you dont know when it will end.If the cause dissapears or it gets substituted with something else, then more likely than not the trend shall end too.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #284
  • Aug 31, 2014 11:36am Aug 31, 2014 11:36am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Will do. I assume you mean pick among the majors? Because my 2 "favorite" pairs are Beasts.
Go for a pair you "know" if you want. It may give you a better view of it...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #285
  • Aug 31, 2014 11:58am Aug 31, 2014 11:58am
that post is the funniest shit a ever heard its like'' hey lets open an umbrella in the ass''but let the dream come trutch
  • #286
  • Aug 31, 2014 12:02pm Aug 31, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting lolipop
that post is the funniest shit a ever heard its like'' hey lets open an umbrella in the ass''but let the dream come trutch
What?

At any rate... 1000% a month? Really? I'd be thrilled with 20% a month.
  • #287
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:24pm Sep 1, 2014 12:24pm
Is anyone interested testing the trend following theory scientifically (not just talking BS here out of our @sses)?

Finding some patterns in the MARKET VELOCITY (including direction) <-> MARKET ACCELERATION relationship, to sort of measure trends which have constant speed, to be more durable than those which accelerate/whipsaw much.

I`d be interested on actually work this and research it, not just talk here like some monkeys who have no clue what they are talking about
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #288
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:38pm Sep 1, 2014 12:38pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} I'm quite intrigued by some of the "core topics" that are being mentioned in this thread. I can express what I see happen time and time again - currency pairs clarify their upside when moving down, and clarify their downside when moving up. (I can share data to support this...) Just as an example we'll use a random number on the AUD/USD of .9366 established as what I would call a "long reversal target", or, probability is there for the pair to reverse short once price moves LONG to the level of .9366. What happens more often than not is...
That would happen only if there would be closed market, and the SUPPLY would be finite, but due to many QE activities nowadays, thats just not simply true.A market can have an uptrend, and at the end it can just have a breakout to the upside, because its counter currency just got diluted so much that even if the base currency has reached its limit, due to the weakness of the counter currency, the price is still going up.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #289
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:05pm Sep 1, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting Proximus
Is anyone interested testing the trend following theory scientifically (not just talking BS here out of our @sses)? Finding some patterns in the MARKET VELOCITY (including direction) <-> MARKET ACCELERATION relationship, to sort of measure trends which have constant speed, to be more durable than those which accelerate/whipsaw much. I`d be interested on actually work this and research it, not just talk here like some monkeys who have no clue what they are talking about
Prox, this problem has been put to bed in the 1940's by W. D. Gann. If that is too much for you, Bill Williams did it again in the 1990's.

Start trading with appropriate leverage and stop trying to reinvent the wheel. The tools have already been crafted if that is what you are looking for.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #290
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:19pm Sep 1, 2014 1:19pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Prox, this problem has been put to bed in the 1940's by W. D. Gann. If that is too much for you, Bill Williams did it again in the 1990's. Start trading with appropriate leverage and stop trying to reinvent the wheel. The tools have already been crafted if that is what you are looking for.
You dont understand my point, i wasnt talking about risk management, it its not even wise to think about risk management until you dont even have an edge.

Because the lack of edge is the main problem, until you dont resolve this, you cant even trade, so risk management is only the 2nd most important issue.

If trend following would be so simple and easy, i bet 95% of traders would not lose, i mean humans are stupid, but not that stupid, so the only answer is that trading is: NOT EASY and NOT SIMPLE.

And even if you find an edge, how do you know it is reliable ? The reliability and the size of the edge combined is the recipe for success in trading, executed trough discipline and risk management.But until you dont have the recipe, you dont have anything to begin with.

It's like a cook who has no recipe for a delicious food, so he mixes every ingredient, and after he gets food poisoning from his lack of cooking skills he doesnt know why the food tasted so horrible
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #291
  • Edited 1:59pm Sep 1, 2014 1:22pm | Edited 1:59pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} That would happen only if there would be closed market, and the SUPPLY would be finite, but due to many QE activities nowadays, thats just not simply true.A market can have an uptrend, and at the end it can just have a breakout to the upside, because its counter currency just got diluted so much that even if the base currency has reached its limit, due to the weakness of the counter currency, the price is still going up.
Certainly, dynamics do change - totally agree with you there.

..wish I had kept up with the EUR from 09 on...would be interesting to see if "current events" were foretold in part via price action.

Considering an average of 20 trading (~ a few) days per month, the idea of 1000% per month...hmmm...50% per day?
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #292
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:30pm Sep 1, 2014 1:30pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} Certainly, dynamics do change - totally agree with you there. ..wish I had kept up with the EUR from 09 on...would be interesting to see if "current events" were foretold in part via price action.
Maybe it could work on some currencies but it is definitely not a universal truth.

It could work on currencies which have similar economies behind them, like HKD/JPY ,AUD/NZD, EUR/GBP or EUR/CHF (after the peg will be revoked)

But definitely in most cases its not true.Maybe it can be quantified on which pairs it works and on which doest not, if someone would take the time to research it.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #293
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:34pm Sep 1, 2014 1:34pm
the word ''together'' cut cut cut....
  • #294
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:44pm Sep 1, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting lolipop
the word ''together'' cut cut cut....
Yes its pretty lame, that only a handful people have contributed yet to our common cause.It is certainly easier to read this thread after,and not contribute anything to it, like most here do, but hopefully some do contribute with interesting ideas.

It is always the few who lead the many, in every aspect
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #295
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:03pm Sep 1, 2014 2:03pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Maybe it could work on some currencies but it is definitely not a universal truth. It could work on currencies which have similar economies behind them, like HKD/JPY ,AUD/NZD, EUR/GBP or EUR/CHF (after the peg will be revoked) But definitely in most cases its not true.Maybe it can be quantified on which pairs it works and on which doest not, if someone would take the time to research it.
The universal truth is that price movement is a response to human behavior. This market "rinses and repeats" itself over and over - it just changes ranges while it's habits stay somewhat stable.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #296
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:06pm Sep 1, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} Considering an average of 20 trading (~ a few) days per month, the idea of 1000% per month...hmmm...50% per day?
Suppose you trade daily, and compound, it come out to rather something like 12% a day...While an easy task still, but nor 50% a day
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #297
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:22pm Sep 1, 2014 3:22pm
It doesnt matter if we make 50%/day or 12%/day or 200%/month or 1000% /month because we didnt even figured out a system which makes 1% month/ let alone 1000%, so how about we get to work, and stop dreaming ok ?

That 1000%/month wont come out of itself you know, somebody has to work for it.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #298
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:26pm Sep 1, 2014 3:26pm
Quoting Proximus
Is anyone interested testing the trend following theory scientifically (not just talking BS here out of our @sses)? Finding some patterns in the MARKET VELOCITY (including direction) <-> MARKET ACCELERATION relationship, to sort of measure trends which have constant speed, to be more durable than those which accelerate/whipsaw much. I`d be interested on actually work this and research it, not just talk here like some monkeys who have no clue what they are talking about
Yes, I'd be interested in spending some time looking for such patterns to start to build a trading strategy on. What I have is time available, what I do not have is coding skills. Please could you explain a little more about this market velocity <-> market acceleration relationship and how it would be quantified on a chart? If I understand correctly the MT4 tools we have so far and have been discussed are the modified ATR and moving average indicators - if there's anything else I've missed or that could be added please let me know and I can start to look for ways to apply these tools logically to find an edge.
  • #299
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:30pm Sep 1, 2014 3:30pm
Also i told already countless times, the title of the thread is only to get the attention of traders to get them together and make a real system which is profitable.

The title could be renamed, but then it would not be so popular, if the title would be" lets make 1% consistent /month for a whole trading career" then nobody would be interested.People nowadays only look for hypes, so i`ve disguised this thread as if it were a hype, but actually it is a very logical and factual discussion amongst good traders.

I actually dont care, how much it will make, however i still hope for the best (sky is the limit), but i realized that consistency is the key.

Look here, my country's average bank deposit rate for retail like me is 2.5%/MoM, while my MoM inflation rate is 1%, so if i would put my money in a bank i would make 1.5% true yield /month.So actually every % over 1.5% for me is a good profit.So if this system were to make 15%/month i would be satisfied, although not happy , but satisfied, because i know that i outperformed my local yield by far

You can also measure your success to your local interest rate - inflation yield, OR to the S & P 500 which is the "safest" index out there, that is why FX the high risk trading should make atleast 5x->6x more yield than those on a MoM basis.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #300
  • Sep 1, 2014 3:46pm Sep 1, 2014 3:46pm
Quoting Ethlao
{quote} Yes, I'd be interested in spending some time looking for such patterns to start to build a trading strategy on. What I have is time available, what I do not have is coding skills. Please could you explain a little more about this market velocity <-> market acceleration relationship and how it would be quantified on a chart? If I understand correctly the MT4 tools we have so far and have been discussed are the modified ATR and moving average indicators - if there's anything else I've missed or that could be added please let me know and I...
Finally a volunteer

Well yes lack of coding skills is a little bit of problem but not quite.I suppose you can use Excel, or MathLab and can do some basic correlation tests do you?

If yes, then i shall code that PROXIMUS Velocity Indicator to print the values to a text file, and then you can analyze the correlations in Excel or Mathlab.

I also need to make the acceleration indicator, which would be the RATE OF CHANGE or the VELOCITY indicator or a candle/candle basis.

Then basically you will have to look for patterns between the PRICE <> ACCELERATION <> VELOCITY on different pairs and see how reliable are they.
Of course this needs to be analyzed carefully and working only with the data, not on the chart manually because that will be not accurate BS.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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