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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #49,701
  • Edited 8:36am Aug 30, 2014 8:26am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting Swis
{quote} The arb was a winner, only aimed at b/e in such case but my slow fingers took a while to press 'x' so next thing I know it was a winner. It wasn't pure arb though, it was the one retailers get, the risk one. I saw in investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/arbitrage/ ah but thanks for the explanation, it does seem like I put loads more risk, and should of really just cut loss. :-)and I was thinking that to be the answer, but was curious then to see where creativity led me when the option presented itself.In...
1.yo don't understand the term arbitrage.
2. and i am quite sure you not understand what the term hedging also.

is not seems, is fact you created doubled risk with positions trading against one another.
that something in you, thats what i was most worried about.
be sure, that is definately scorpion.
tame before gets sting.

regards

Just so you get proper ly educated.
you can hedge risk that is natural risk.
you cannot hedge a risk that you create with risk position.
Hedging is only for peeps who have natural risk.
created risk cannot be hedged.
created risk is called speculation.

When you have long and short positions in 1 instrument , effectively you have created an unrealised book loss.
when you have a long and short in 2 complimentary instruments, you have same.
There is no hedge, is 2 instances of speculation with close to no opportunity turn a profit.
  • #49,702
  • Aug 30, 2014 8:31am Aug 30, 2014 8:31am
Quoting fti
{quote} 1.yo don't understand the term arbitrage. 2. and i am quite sure you not understand what the term hedging also. is not seems, is fact you created doubled risk with positions trading against one another. that something in you, thats what i was most worried about. be sure, that is definately scorpion. tame before gets sting. regards
got it thanks.
curiosity kills the cat

Inserted Video
  • #49,703
  • Aug 30, 2014 8:39am Aug 30, 2014 8:39am
Quoting Swis
{quote} got it thanks. curiosity kills the cat https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLgImtZ6Onk
You would had created more managable and possibly profitable situation , by just cutting and going other way.
also less cap and bro intensive.

regards
  • #49,704
  • Edited 9:50am Aug 30, 2014 8:48am | Edited 9:50am
Quoting fti
{quote} 1.yo don't understand the term arbitrage. 2. and i am quite sure you not understand what the term hedging also. is not seems, is fact you created doubled risk with positions trading against one another. that something in you, thats what i was most worried about. be sure, that is definately scorpion. tame before gets sting. regards Just so you get proper ly educated. you can hedge risk that is natural risk. you cannot hedge a risk that you create with risk position. Hedging is only for peeps who have natural risk. created risk cannot be hedged....
Thats the best thing i read today !
  • #49,705
  • Aug 30, 2014 9:17am Aug 30, 2014 9:17am
Quoting fti
{quote} You would had created more managable and possibly profitable situation , by just cutting and going other way. also less cap and bro intensive. regards
Thank you. I figured that would be most natural.
It is really difficult to filter the bs everywhere unless I had exp to fit the real definition of something.
I hope I not use terms loosely for they're not my intentions--only tried best describe something from my point of view, I think even used bs loosely.
here's a good read, I think
http://www.stoa.org.uk/topics/bullsh...n-bullshit.pdf

I'm grateful for the teachings!
  • #49,706
  • Edited 9:44am Aug 30, 2014 9:26am | Edited 9:44am
Quoting Swis
{quote} Thank you. I figured that would be most natural. It is really difficult to filter the bs everywhere unless I had exp to fit the real definition of something. I hope I not use terms loosely for they're not my intentions--only tried best describe something from my point of view, I think even used bs loosely. here's a good read, I think http://www.stoa.org.uk/topics/bullsh...n-bullshit.pdf I'm grateful for the teachings!
no worrys.
lots peeps who not pros gets deceived.

Is quite industry wide at the feeding levels.
Esp traders who had become desperate. Is ok live and learn.
Is important know at all time what one is doing to risk. Esp losses.
But most important, must remember , one never crosses out to realise loss.
when crossing out is a double speculation and gets very confusing.

remember , if you have leg in a loss, crossing it will most certaainly put you in position have 2 positions on the wrong side of the flow.
the loss leg and the cross leg.

I am giving yo uthe answers, but i still not seeing you chaps working it out in your mind to be REALLY sure why you never do this.
so i give you chaps the podium. you chaps punch it out.


regards
  • #49,707
  • Aug 30, 2014 9:30am Aug 30, 2014 9:30am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} i'm not sure.. i mean, if you seen it happen before then who am i to disagree? but why are you looking at volume... VSA? i don't think we look at volume here... maybe in the future volume will become relevant.. i think that it's good to see the relation between eurusd and gbpusd and see if you can make a trade off of the usdjpy if you think it will proceed upwards.. or if you think eurjpy will also follow suit, and if it's showing more volatility and you want to bank on catching a bigger move.. then by all means trade the eurjpy instead...
hi 4tiger,

sorry for ambiguous terminology, i mean vols as in volatility, not really volume.
ah the out set was trying to read if the cause of the volatility of the usdjpy pair was caused by other pair's action on it.
because during the time i was short usdjpy and the usdjpy downwards move started first, and when eurusd and gbpusd when strongly down, usdjpy had pushed been upwards, and i was experiencing a counter impulse wave, so i had to look for clues from eurusd or gbpusd to see if the counter impulse wave by usdjpy was a genuine change in trend or was it because of the other pair's impulse wave, and there by i had to decide if i should cut my scout, or is there a possibility for rescue, and if how much am i willing to tolerate, as small loss within acceptable losses parameter between the time i get the information to spot that mm was tanking the counter impulse wave too, as seen by the volatility not being as huge and can sense someone tanking the counter impulse wave upwards at a certain level, and there by having allies to help me out and rescue is possible.

as for the question regarding fixed currencies rate, i guess they would be like non floating rates countries, essentially not moving at all, and no speculation is possible,
otherwise if a spike in 1 country, may cause a ripple across to all other related currencies.
  • #49,708
  • Aug 30, 2014 9:46am Aug 30, 2014 9:46am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi 4tiger, sorry for ambiguous terminology, i mean vols as in volatility, not really volume. ah the out set was trying to read if the cause of the volatility of the usdjpy pair was caused by other pair's action on it. because during the time i was short usdjpy and the usdjpy downwards move started first, and when eurusd and gbpusd when strongly down, usdjpy had pushed been upwards, and i was experiencing a counter impulse wave, so i had to look for clues from eurusd or gbpusd to see if the counter impulse wave by usdjpy was a genuine change...

ya ya pegged markets.
But what if the peg was wrong and for extended periods unmanaged.
what you think will be the economic implications?

do you under stand the term sudden death?



regards
  • #49,709
  • Aug 30, 2014 9:49am Aug 30, 2014 9:49am
Quoting fti
{quote} you really expect anyone answer your question? i am not really sure we discussing the same topic. The discussion is about never leg cross your loss positions and make crossed position. and the reasons why one must never do that. i already told you why you must not. Did you read? think about it already? what that does to your risk profile and book. regards Just to help your thoughts along. say you long abc markets abc markets drops , so you out of court. so instead cut losses you carry losses and create position in xyz against your...
hi fti,

ah the question has nothing to do with the crosses, is kind of trying to see if the counter impulse wave could be caused by a really strong impulse wave from both the eurusd and gbpusd both going down, and in turn cause the usdjpy to rise when mm was still net short, and needed to get out of their position, so if that is the case, we may see mm tank the counter impulse wave for abit and then for price action to return lower then consolidate while mm try to change their position to go with the usd strength.

about the legging of crosses, actually it does more harm than good also because i may end up with 2 pairs needing rescues instead too, and the logistics for rescue is raised 2x of the original, and if not planned for originally, may cause me to have to realise losses on 2 positions while if i had only 1 position on, it may still have been salvageable,
because it can also be the case that the usdjpy experience a counter impulse wave while the eurusd does not move, and cause the eurjpy position to tear and land with both losses, and both need rescues, so actually there are too many unseen circumstances when legging crosses, so it is just better to cut the long much earlier and look for a possibility to short it at a better spot.
  • #49,710
  • Aug 30, 2014 9:54am Aug 30, 2014 9:54am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi fti, ah the question has nothing to do with the crosses, is kind of trying to see if the counter impulse wave could be caused by a really strong impulse wave from both the eurusd and gbpusd both going down, and in turn cause the usdjpy to rise when mm was still net short, and needed to get out of their position, so if that is the case, we may see mm tank the counter impulse wave for abit and then for price action to return lower then consolidate while mm try to change their position to go with the usd strength. about the legging of crosses,...

so you understand hor.
Is better have 1 good race horse than many donkeys in the race.
1 good horse have chance win. many donkeys have many chances lose.
generally speaking.

2 wrong speculations not makes 1 winner.


regards

If one is diligent in one's rescues and positionings and turns.
could break even at best.

Either cut or rescue.
cross out and they already buried you.
Only you not know it.

but i really like you peeps test it out in demo and discussions.
get see it clear in your mind.
  • #49,711
  • Aug 30, 2014 10:01am Aug 30, 2014 10:01am
Quoting fti
{quote} ya ya pegged markets. But what if the peg was wrong and for extended periods unmanaged. what you think will be the economic implications? do you under stand the term sudden death? regards
hi fti,

my guess is that it would be a time bomb waiting to explode, once the wall is removed, it will just push through all the way, kind of like manipulation, manipulators trying to manipulate and keep prices artificially high or low, and the pressure is built up and kept in for a long long time, like the gbpusd rise up recently, kept above the 1.7100 level, then when it came down it was so strong and hardly even pause or consolidate.

as for the economic impact, depending if the currency vs commodity vs equities fundamentals as well as the economic structure of the country in terms of how they generate productivity and wealth in terms of the resources they need or their need for export, some cases it might end up causing inflation, or deflation, or hyperinflation if the problem was not rectified in time. i think 1 of the case of these kind of scenario would be the great depression, though it may not be caused by pegged markets.
  • #49,712
  • Aug 30, 2014 10:07am Aug 30, 2014 10:07am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi fti, my guess is that it would be a time bomb waiting to explode, once the wall is removed, it will just push through all the way, kind of like manipulation, manipulators trying to manipulate and keep prices artificially high or low, and the pressure is built up and kept in for a long long time, like the gbpusd rise up recently, kept above the 1.7100 level, then when it came down it was so strong and hardly even pause or consolidate. as for the economic impact, depending if the currency vs commodity vs equities fundamentals as well as...

you just explained housing bubbles very well.
Thank you. there many kind of bubbles.


regards
  • #49,713
  • Aug 30, 2014 10:08am Aug 30, 2014 10:08am
Quoting fti
{quote} so you understand hor. Is better have 1 good race horse than many donkeys in the race. 1 good horse have chance win. many donkeys have many chances lose. generally speaking. 2 wrong speculations not makes 1 winner. regards If one is diligent in one's rescues and positionings and turns. could break even at best. Either cut or rescue. cross out and they already buried you. Only you not know it. but i really like you peeps test it out in demo and discussions. get see it clear in your mind.
hi fti,

yea, actually i prefer a good clean trade, and only dance 1 pair at 1 time so can focus on that particular pair, and won't get distracted dancing too many pairs at same time, partly why i didn't bother use it anymore after 1 try. only time i dance 2 pair is if 1 is in heavy profit and another one seems like they pulling back and offer a nice entry to trade with its trend, then it wold be 2 separate profitable trades.
  • #49,714
  • Aug 30, 2014 10:13am Aug 30, 2014 10:13am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi fti, yea, actually i prefer a good clean trade, and only dance 1 pair at 1 time so can focus on that particular pair, and won't get distracted dancing too many pairs at same time, partly why i didn't bother use it anymore after 1 try. only time i dance 2 pair is if 1 is in heavy profit and another one seems like they pulling back and offer a nice entry to trade with its trend, then it wold be 2 separate profitable trades.

nonono, there strategies buterfly positions, but i not think is the thingy for retail.
What i like you remember is never nevre never cross out a loss position.
traading multiple pairs is ok.
Just make sure you know you speculating in multiple fronts.

if you managing 1 lady badly, doesn't mean it gets easier if you get many aand all at the wrong side.


regards
  • #49,715
  • Aug 30, 2014 10:14am Aug 30, 2014 10:14am
Quoting fti
{quote} you just explained housing bubbles very well. Thank you. there many kind of bubbles. regards


well sg looks like it maybe having 1 now, just wondering if correction or not, guess the population white paper will be crucial, last time never see property agents need to come out to mrt to look for clients, usually is people go queue up look for show room, now see some property agents coming to mrt to advertise condo.
so guess for such hugely inefficient markets, if got these kind of signs maybe sg property market at its inflection point, is just see population policy.
  • #49,716
  • Aug 30, 2014 10:19am Aug 30, 2014 10:19am
Quoting fti
{quote} nonono, there strategies buterfly positions, but i not think is the thingy for retail. What i like you remember is never nevre never cross out a loss position. traading multiple pairs is ok. Just make sure you know you speculating in multiple fronts. regards
And here I thought I was getting cre8tive with crossing out a loss position.

mkt rewarding me for that instance in bad behavior Mr.
very tricky beast
Thanks for all the answers, again!
Thanks, I will make sure to pick prime horse only & not manage a group of donkeys or
Inserted Video

:-)
  • #49,717
  • Aug 30, 2014 10:24am Aug 30, 2014 10:24am
Quoting Swis
{quote} And here I thought I was getting cre8tive with crossing out a loss position. mkt rewarding me for that instance in bad behavior Mr. very tricky beast Thanks for all the answers, again!
is ok , i can give you the answers, but you need to know and be clear about the scorpion .
nternalise it, so you know where you never put your hands.

regards
  • #49,718
  • Aug 30, 2014 10:24am Aug 30, 2014 10:24am
Quoting fti
{quote} nonono, there strategies buterfly positions, but i not think is the thingy for retail. What i like you remember is never nevre never cross out a loss position. traading multiple pairs is ok. Just make sure you know you speculating in multiple fronts. regards

got it.
butterfly as in triangular arbitrage? coz i tried studying it, didn't like that because spreads would have eaten up everything, and the hfts would have also arb-ed it.
so not really good way for retail unless spreads are smaller, coz already paid 3x spreads on 3 pairs, and the mis-pricing is usually not as significant as the markets for currencies should be quite efficient and hfts should be much faster than retail and already taken it out before retail can see it, and slippage itself may be a problem too.
  • #49,719
  • Aug 30, 2014 10:27am Aug 30, 2014 10:27am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} got it. butterfly as in triangular arbitrage? coz i tried studying it, didn't like that because spreads would have eaten up everything, and the hfts would have also arb-ed it. so not really good way for retail unless spreads are smaller, coz already paid 3x spreads on 3 pairs, and the mis-pricing is usually not as significant as the markets for currencies should be quite efficient and hfts should be much faster than retail and already taken it out before retail can see it, and slippage itself may be a problem too.

eeeer , don't you complain about spreads.
wait till you have to be like 4 tiger and trade 20 pips spreads.

is already becoming like that already.



regards
  • #49,720
  • Aug 30, 2014 10:29am Aug 30, 2014 10:29am
Quoting Swis
{quote} And here I thought I was getting cre8tive with crossing out a loss position. mkt rewarding me for that instance in bad behavior Mr. very tricky beast Thanks for all the answers, again! Thanks, I will make sure to pick prime horse only & not manage a group of donkeys or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uL37RDS2Qiw :-)
family guy!!! love this show too much!!!!
do you watch american dad and the cleveland show by the same producer too?
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