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Martingaling - Looks so good until the inevitable

  • #301
  • Aug 29, 2014 9:00am Aug 29, 2014 9:00am
Quoting tacticat
{quote} Yes, you're right. Simple math... for a simple martingale that I don't think anybody uses. Martingala lovers (mostly using EAs) use currently very different martingala techniques, all sharing the increase-risk-when-losing but adding trailings, partial closures, smart entries, increasing opening gaps, multipair hedging,... a whole world out there. t.
This is all that matters: the very definition of Martingale. Anything added does not change the way the math of this strategy works.
  • #302
  • Aug 29, 2014 9:14am Aug 29, 2014 9:14am
Quoting normtold
{quote} Hi Razor, I have a feeling this thread will descend into insult slinging fairly soon. Interesting to note that the Zulutrade account you linked to, he is not doubling up positions on the G/U, they are 1 and 2 lots, more like grid trading. Have you seen this guy before? http://www.myfxbook.com/members/togr...-eurusd/662462 Only 12 months old but quite impressive. A grid system, same lot sizes, I think a maxuimum of 30. Also this one http://www.myfxbook.com/members/dayf...NB0skgYn6ST7WN...

Hey there ...what is your signal name on zulutrade? we can check much better like that...
  • #303
  • Aug 31, 2014 12:23pm Aug 31, 2014 12:23pm
Quoting albchr
Never ceases to amaze me how much can be written about such a simple concept. Martingale, like any other approach (and I do mean ANY other) is a just another system or strategy. Those that know how to use it will make money. Those that don't, won't. Just like ANY other approach, it's only ignorance of it that will cause it to fail.
+1
  • #304
  • Aug 31, 2014 12:40pm Aug 31, 2014 12:40pm
Yep the invitable is going to come when you least expect it, martingale is a dangerous game,
if it worked we would all be discusting rich
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #305
  • Sep 2, 2014 4:44am Sep 2, 2014 4:44am
so here is account of our martingale king whom i warned to close positions. He continued adding to losers and finally account blown off.

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  • #306
  • Sep 2, 2014 4:46am Sep 2, 2014 4:46am
Quoting XharpScalper
so here is account of our martingale king whom i warned to close positions. He continued adding to losers and finally account blown off. {image}{image}{image}
Actually...I didn't keep adding...I just didn't let them close.

The issue wasn't the EA, it was the fact that I didn't allow the EA to manage these.

Not the system, it was the trader.

So...though you were right about closing the positions...that's about all.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #307
  • Sep 2, 2014 4:49am Sep 2, 2014 4:49am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Actually...I didn't keep adding...I just didn't let them close. The issue wasn't the EA, it was the fact that I didn't allow the EA to manage these. Not the system, it was the trader. So...though you were right about closing the positions...that's about all.
bro you should add to the winners and cut losing trades , you cant let them run losers run for ever.
  • #308
  • Sep 2, 2014 4:54am Sep 2, 2014 4:54am
https://charts.mql5.com/5/587/usdjpy...al-trade-2.png

actually range killed you , if you had offloaded some positions then you might had some chance 105 seems to be a strong level , but anything possible in market.
  • #309
  • Sep 2, 2014 4:54am Sep 2, 2014 4:54am
Quoting XharpScalper
{quote} bro you should add to the winners and cut losing trades , you cant let them run losers run for ever.
To be honest, I have been paying more attention to other accounts...

Only when I checked this, this week, did I realize the jeopardy that it was in...

This is an EA account...funded by profits from another EA account, which was funded by profits from another EA account.

All the same, I keep funds in these accounts to play risk and work with martingales.

This time, I fucked up.

I'm still not going to cry about it.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #310
  • Sep 2, 2014 4:58am Sep 2, 2014 4:58am
Quoting XharpScalper
{image} actually range killed you , if you had offloaded some positions then you might had some chance 105 seems to be a strong level , but anything possible in market.

Nice trade.

But actually range didn't so much kill me, as again, I never allowed the EA to close the positions when it was supposed to.

AUDJPY, would have closed at a loss, but would have closed a lot sooner.
USDJPY, would have closed at a loss, but would have closed a lot sooner.

GBPUSD, would have closed at a profit, these are still open...

The EA hasn't officially taken a trade since last week and I had closed some of the positions manually...

After market open, this is really the first I have had a look at the account and took my beating and can now lick my wounds...

I do understand what you are saying...but it is an EA account...MEANT to play risk.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #311
  • Edited 8:58am Sep 2, 2014 7:47am | Edited 8:58am
Quoting XharpScalper
so here is account of our martingale king whom i warned to close positions. He continued adding to losers and finally account blown off. {image}{image}{image}

Guess we can all learn about martingle and variations of martingle.

1) You gotta have balls
2) You gotta have loads of cash
3) You can never take a loss
4) You make peanuts and risk losing everything
5) Its not for newbies even on EAs.

Else you end up like the guy attached below. A newbie using martingle.
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  • #312
  • Sep 2, 2014 8:18am Sep 2, 2014 8:18am
Quoting Kuat
{quote} Guess we can all learn about martingle and variations of martingle. 1) You gotta have balls 2) You gotta have loads of cash 3) You can never take a loss 4) You make peanuts and risk losing everything 5) Its not for newbies even on EAs. Else you end up like the guy attached below. A newbie using martingle.
Congratulations on attempting your first sensible post!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #313
  • Sep 4, 2014 11:00pm Sep 4, 2014 11:00pm
Well I see someone with martingle and didnt blow up yet.. So I have attached..


Guess we can all see why there is a significant difference in equity curve..if you blindly follow rules of TA without any analysis or edge .. Guess blow ups will happen.

oh btw if you want to see mine, I did start up one for certain FF members due to their amusing antics

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Kuat

Just for kicks and I dont trade demo...
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  • #314
  • Sep 5, 2014 7:03am Sep 5, 2014 7:03am
Quoting Kuat
Well I see someone with martingle and didnt blow up yet.. So I have attached.. Guess we can all see why there is a significant difference in equity curve..if you blindly follow rules of TA without any analysis or edge .. Guess blow ups will happen. oh btw if you want to see mine, I did start up one for certain FF members due to their amusing antics http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Kuat Just for kicks and I dont trade demo... {image}
So, what you are saying is that Martingales are a good thing, and you have been profitable for 2 days out of 2 months.

Excellent points!

You are sure reaching out here, kuat...I feel like you are trying to grow as a person.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #315
  • Sep 5, 2014 7:37am Sep 5, 2014 7:37am
Quoting Kuat
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Kuat {image}
So was this really that hard?

Thanks for doing it.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #316
  • Sep 5, 2014 7:39am Sep 5, 2014 7:39am
Well nope..guess i need to clarify since someone's comprehension is not that good... There are better and less risky way than trading martingle..

and of course i need to mention martingle without any edge is just dumb.. That guy is surviving still but I'm still looking at a blow up unless of course he has an edge rather than just blindly martingling.

Guess with your level of intellect..might be hard to grasp what is an edge..since you already blow up

And guess another example of martingle..Thodie already blew up and deleted his TE..VabikePackers one attached.
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  • #317
  • Edited 9:06am Sep 5, 2014 8:55am | Edited 9:06am
Quoting Kuat
Well nope..guess i need to clarify since someone's comprehension is not that good... There are better and less risky way than trading martingle.. and of course i need to mention martingle without any edge is just dumb.. That guy is surviving still but I'm still looking at a blow up unless of course he has an edge rather than just blindly martingling. Guess with your level of intellect..might be hard to grasp what is an edge..since you already blow up And guess another example of martingle..Thodie already blew up and deleted his TE..VabikePackers...
I'll explain exactly what I'm doing with that account right now:

If you look at the history of that account, I've traded mostly AUD/USD on it with a method of my own that gives me "my edge".

I decided to add the GBP/AUD as another pair I'll trade. I've had some successes with it previous to now and I'm not concerned about the current trades on the account.

Here's why:

my setup gives me clear understanding of levels these pairs will achieve. Initially when I started this explorer, I had a set of AUD/USD trades that didn't look a lot different than these do, yet, every single one of them became winners. I did make a bit of a mistake by starting to trade GBP/AUD too early. I should've either waited about a month or started doing what I do a month sooner or gone back a month before placing a trade.

The upside is pretty clear, now it's just patience in waiting for the market to do what it has expressed clearly it will do.

Will I blow this account up? Seems unlikely - it'd take g/aud levels in the 1.3000's for that to happen. This account was started with a combination of some small deposits and winnings from the other account, so, across the board, this account has a long way to go before actual "principal" is in danger even though it looks like it is right now.

If this account takes a dump, the actual "cost" out of my pocket will certainly be worth the education on this pair received in the process...and this explorer isn't getting deleted anytime soon...hmmm..well..the broker that's with did just send an email about sending their MT4 accounts to FXCM on the 19th of this month, so, that might cause a blip for a day or two...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #318
  • Sep 5, 2014 9:08am Sep 5, 2014 9:08am
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} I'll explain exactly what I'm doing with that account right now: If you look at the history of that account, I've traded mostly AUD/USD on it with a method of my own that gives me "my edge". I decided to add the GBP/AUD as another pair I'll trade. I've had some successes with it previous to now and I'm not concerned about the current trades on the account. Here's why: my setup gives me clear understanding of levels these pairs will achieve. Initially when I started this explorer, I had a set of AUD/USD trades that didn't look a lot different...

Well I guess maybe I did stereotyped you too quickly.

Yes I did go through your history and you do seem to have an edge in your AUDUSD trades. Coupled with some sensible leveraging. I take back my words..


But I guess for someone else who keeps incessantly talking on and on about multiple time frame triggers bla bla bla..He is still running round in circles.

I believe one of the bigger problems newbies face is, when in a profitable trade what do. Million dollar question. and of course been discussed many many times..

1) When you enter a trade, you must know where you are getting out. When it hit, you are out.. If it goes on in favor after that, dont think about it. If it goes on against you after that, think of when you are re-entering.

2) If you are still reading and still trading with out a clear sensible way to exit trades, you need one now. Think of where and why. Of course nothing is easy at first.. but you have to start somewhere.

3) This is where I believe most ppl get stuck, especially from what is see Demo Man get stuck.. If your downside is more than 10x your upside, there is something wrong in your take profit or you are constantly on the wrong side. (ie no edge)

Well I did promise someone I would ignore a certain person on FF . I guess this shall be my last post on this matter. For those tht PM me. I thank you for your support but at this stage, I am not revealing my trading style. But please rest assured, martingle is not the way to trade unless you are looking to make minuscle amount of moneys with loads of capital to back up if shit hits the fan. There are many other ways to trade. And one last matter. You always start the process by placing your money with respectable brokers in regulated places. Remember its your money and if shit hits the fan, you want some recourse.
  • #319
  • Sep 5, 2014 9:36am Sep 5, 2014 9:36am
Quoting Kuat
{quote} Well I guess maybe I did stereotyped you too quickly. Yes I did go through your history and you do seem to have an edge in your AUDUSD trades. Coupled with some sensible leveraging. I take back my words..
I'm looking to develop that same edge as well on the G/AUD. On a previous computer long gone and before cloud storage (being so common..) I had a statement of 350 winning trades in a row on EUR/USD using the same "strategy" I've used on AUD/USD so far and am working with the G/AUD on. Each pair has it's own "song" and if you're willing to put in the effort there's a layer of analysis "underneath" price levels that's worth investigating. It's where it's easily seen that the "what" (direction, extreme highs/lows) of this market's instruments are more predictable than the majority is willing to comprehend.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #320
  • Sep 5, 2014 10:11am Sep 5, 2014 10:11am
So, back to the Martingale concept. I haven't utilized it but find it very fascinating. It seems that everyone agrees that it will eventually enter into a death trade using the traditional methodology but has anyone had success using variations ? 1.5 or 1.6 multiplier vs the 2x ? Hedging with negatively correlated positions ? Using multiple accounts and different instruments in each one ?
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