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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #49,681
  • Edited 8:19am Aug 29, 2014 7:40am | Edited 8:19am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi swis, yep well, i guess i been proven wrong, so, please throw away the method i told you about.
i will not discuss this for now,
need give you chap some time think about it in depth.
maybe when i see you chaps cannot find the thoughts , may chip in later.

wow the euro , island nicely formed in daily dormain.
looks a little like the little red dot. no?
lets see if we will have some water divide. watch closely.
i used to stay somewhere near the bottom of that white bar.
If peeps not happy with me then i can jump into the sea. make land fill.
Just joking. me no volume make landfill. even big aircrsft drop in also not fill up much.

I still thinking , when comes time sg built same as narita airstrip.
and shift satay club near there.
anyone been to kajang.
ai ya my cravings for mat kilau. Lots mat saleh(farang) also agree, is best.
You judge.


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regards

dark coloured ones are beep.
lighter is
and the chinese tausua sauce , wah
mymat salleh freinds, they never miss me, the sauce , they miss.
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  • #49,682
  • Aug 29, 2014 8:35am Aug 29, 2014 8:35am
Quoting fti
{quote} i will not discuss this for now, need give you chap some time think about it in depth. maybe when i see you chaps cannot find the thoughts , may chip in later. wow the euro , island nicely formed in daily dormain. looks a little like the little red dot. no? lets see if we will have some water divide. watch closely. i used to stay somewhere near the bottom of that white bar. If peeps not happy with me then i can jump into the sea. make land fill. Just joking. me no volume make landfill. even big aircrsft drop in also...
hi fti,

lamb satay is nice too

the nicest one i tried before had got chunks of fats in between the meat, the flavour will be
with the fats flavoring the meat.
  • #49,683
  • Aug 29, 2014 8:36am Aug 29, 2014 8:36am
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  • #49,684
  • Aug 29, 2014 8:46am Aug 29, 2014 8:46am
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  • #49,685
  • Edited 9:55am Aug 29, 2014 9:19am | Edited 9:55am
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english version gelang si paku gelang.
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ai ya fail.
cannot find the indo version , me and you and a dog named katak.
  • #49,686
  • Edited 10:28am Aug 29, 2014 9:58am | Edited 10:28am
This only katak song have.

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oh have english version?

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cannot remember the song i sang at the monkey who stole my tee off golf ball at bali hendera volcano golf course.
but i remember the drop ball panalty shot. damn monkey.
  • #49,687
  • Aug 29, 2014 10:31am Aug 29, 2014 10:31am
ooops is going to christmas islands, thanks to goldman.
maybe they looking for leyman.

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  • #49,688
  • Edited 12:49pm Aug 29, 2014 12:38pm | Edited 12:49pm
Quoting fti
{quote} i will not discuss this for now, need give you chap some time think about it in depth. maybe when i see you chaps cannot find the thoughts , may chip in later. wow the euro , island nicely formed in daily dormain. looks a little like the little red dot. no? lets see if we will have some water divide. watch closely. i used to stay somewhere near the bottom of that white bar. If peeps not happy with me then i can jump into the sea. make land fill. Just joking. me no volume make landfill. even big aircrsft drop in also...

i always tot the "gelang" song that you posted was written by some guy in singapore. you know there was a sg chinese drama many moon back centered around geylang and i think they use the same tune and edited the lyrics..

wah, some interesting discussion going on. would like chip my thoughts...

ok, the situation as it stands is one has a long EURUSD. and mkt is showing that EURUSD and USJPY is going down, effectively it is a EURJPY down move.

so to create the 3 legged animal, one need to sell EURJPY and first need to sell right amount to cancel out the euros in EURUSD and then sell somemore which lead to effectively createing a short USDJPY and short EURJPY respectively. since we want participate in EURJPY only becaue that is where the action is, want need to buy back the USDJPY to reduce our risk exposure and create an effective net EURJPY exposure in the portfolio. so effectively it will look like this:

Long EURUSD
Short EURJPY
Long USDJPY

one need to roughly know how much to sell and how much to buy quickly to execute the mission and i guess one oso need roughly calculate the cost basis of the net position to see how far away the position is from the mkt. if sell or buy wrong amount we would be creating an entire different profile. eg. if we did not sell enough EURJPY, we would still be net partially long EURUSD and net partially short USDJPY.

just me few preliminary thoughts..
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #49,689
  • Edited 7:48pm Aug 29, 2014 7:37pm | Edited 7:48pm
Have a nice weekend beautiful peeps ;-)<33 3 days out of office due to labor day for me, what a steal!

By the way, my wife posted a video on YouTube. Take a look at it. But don't approach her as my wife though, because she doesn't know we're together, or I exist
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  • #49,690
  • Aug 30, 2014 5:34am Aug 30, 2014 5:34am
fti, thanks for settling this discussion on crosspairs .

swis and cookiemonsta: thank you guys for bringing in new thoughts and perspectives, it shows that there is a lot of thought that comes with reading and learning from this thread.. i hope you guys understand the dangers of going off and "tweaking" the system though, it's not that you can't, but really be careful..
1. demo it
2. don't lead others astray...

ps. Swis: i'm not sure with your above reply that you acknowledge that you were "wrong".. but i'm really just trying to help, have a nice weekend.

Quoting Jacque
so effectively it will look like this:
Long EURUSD
Short EURJPY
Long USDJPY
Jacque, i'll participate in this discussion with you. but please note that i do not recommend trading this way with 3 legged "crossed" animal.
Okay, so when you Long EURUSD and Long USDJPY, you are already effectively hedging these two trades.

in one trade you are Selling USD, in the other you are Buying USD. in effect, you are left with the Buy EUR Sell JPY from these two orders.

if you add in that third trade of Short EURJPY... then you are at a stalemate. you are squared.

look, usually when USD shows strength or shows weakness, it is usually across the board on all USD pairs, this is why EURUSD and GBPUSD usually move in the same direction, right?

which is why we take notice of the "smoke signals" sent by USD pairs that don't act accordingly with each other.

example: when EURUSD and GBPUSD are going up, why would the USDJPY also go up? if the problem isn't with the USD, then we know to look at the JPY for weakness. then you look at EURJPY and USDJPY, and see, oh, it isn't USD strength but JPY weakness.
  • #49,691
  • Aug 30, 2014 5:46am Aug 30, 2014 5:46am
fti, thanks for settling this discussion on crosspairs .

swis and cookiemonsta: thank you guys for bringing in new thoughts and perspectives, it shows that there is a lot of thought that comes with reading and learning from this thread.. i hope you guys understand the dangers of going off and "tweaking" the system though, it's not that you can't, but really be careful..
1. demo it
2. don't lead others astray...

ps. Swis: i'm not sure with your above reply that you acknowledge that you were "wrong".. but i'm really just trying to help, have a nice weekend.

Quoting Jacque
so effectively it will look like this:
Long EURUSD
Short EURJPY
Long USDJPY
Jacque, i'll participate in this discussion with you. but please note that i do not recommend trading this way with 3 legged "crossed" animal.
Okay, so when you Long EURUSD and Long USDJPY, you are already effectively hedging these two trades.

in one trade you are Selling USD, in the other you are Buying USD. in effect, you are left with the Buy EUR Sell JPY from these two orders.

if you add in that third trade of Short EURJPY... then you are at a stalemate. you are squared.

look, usually when USD shows strength or shows weakness, it is usually across the board on all USD pairs, this is why EURUSD and GBPUSD usually move in the same direction, right?

which is why we take notice of the "smoke signals" sent by USD pairs that don't act accordingly with each other.

example: when EURUSD and GBPUSD are going up, why would the USDJPY also go up? if the problem isn't with the USD, then we know to look at the JPY for weakness. then you look at EURJPY and USDJPY, and see, oh, it isn't USD strength but JPY weakness.
  • #49,692
  • Aug 30, 2014 6:25am Aug 30, 2014 6:25am
Quoting 4tiger
fti, thanks for settling this discussion on crosspairs . swis and cookiemonsta: thank you guys for bringing in new thoughts and perspectives, it shows that there is a lot of thought that comes with reading and learning from this thread.. i hope you guys understand the dangers of going off and "tweaking" the system though, it's not that you can't, but really be careful.. 1. demo it 2. don't lead others astray... ps. Swis: i'm not sure with your above reply that you acknowledge that you were "wrong".. but i'm really just trying to help, have a nice...
hi 4tiger, thanks for the explanation.

but I'm curious, is it possible for the eurusd and the gbpusd to go up, but for usdjpy to not move(i.e. mm absorbing usdjpy)? as in we could feel that usdjpy has 2 sided action, and the vols is rather small but our gut feel of this pair is that although the usd is causing eurusd and gbpusd to go up, however, mm is tanking usdjpy from going down, and as a result we see on the cross that eurjpy is in sync with eurusd and contribution from usdjpy is small towards the eurjpy. i had seen it happen before just in the few months ago, there was heavy vols during the june to july period where both eurusd and gbpusd were strongly trending down and the vols are really strong, however, what i see in this case is that, there is a lack of momentum from the usdjpy in that it feels like someone is trying to stop it from moving upwards, and massively absorbing the pair. so in the end it is not necessarily true that if eurusd and gbpusd moves up, usdjpy must move down, as there could be some big guy interested in accumulating his line to absorb the usdjpy down move and in the end cause the move by usdjpy to be pretty small and lack vols as compared to eurusd and gbpusd, and there after when both eurusd and gbpusd's move up ends, usdjpy can proceed upwards?

just trying to check if this scenario is possible.
  • #49,693
  • Edited 7:01am Aug 30, 2014 6:50am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi 4tiger, thanks for the explanation. but I'm curious, is it possible for the eurusd and the gbpusd to go up, but for usdjpy to not move(i.e. mm absorbing usdjpy)? as in we could feel that usdjpy has 2 sided action, and the vols is rather small but our gut feel of this pair is that although the usd is causing eurusd and gbpusd to go up, however, mm is tanking usdjpy from going down, and as a result we see on the cross that eurjpy is in sync with eurusd and contribution from usdjpy is small towards the eurjpy. i had seen it happen before...
i'm not sure.. i mean, if you seen it happen before then who am i to disagree?

but why are you looking at volume... VSA? i don't think we look at volume here... maybe in the future volume will become relevant..

i think that it's good to see the relation between eurusd and gbpusd and see if you can make a trade off of the usdjpy if you think it will proceed upwards.. or if you think eurjpy will also follow suit, and if it's showing more volatility and you want to bank on catching a bigger move.. then by all means trade the eurjpy instead of the usdjpy!

but yeah, i am no authority on whether or not such a situation is possible or not..

by the way, recently (er.. months ago) because of Abenomics and the depreciating of the Yen, USDJPY moved up. so looking at the major fundamentals is also important.

here's a question i thought of recently.. some currencies are pegged to each other, meaning that their exchange rate never really differs by a certain percentage. What would the market look like in a world where all currencies are pegged in a certain way to each other? What would be the effect of this?
  • #49,694
  • Edited 7:42am Aug 30, 2014 7:31am | Edited 7:42am
Quoting Swis
Have a nice weekend beautiful peeps ;-)<33 3 days out of office due to labor day for me, what a steal! By the way, my wife posted a video on YouTube. Take a look at it. But don't approach her as my wife though, because she doesn't know we're together, or I exist https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04fcgFs-mjA
you have nice company.
but these peeps have no place share anything.
Best they go back hide in their shell/country.
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  • #49,695
  • Edited 7:54am Aug 30, 2014 7:36am | Edited 7:54am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} is it possible for the eurusd and the gbpusd to go up, but for usdjpy to not move
you really expect anyone answer your question?

i am not really sure we discussing the same topic.
The discussion is about never leg cross your loss positions and make crossed position. and the reasons why one must never do that.
i already told you why you must not. Did you read? think about it already?
what that does to your risk profile and book.


regards

Just to help your thoughts along.
say you long abc markets
abc markets drops , so you out of court.
so instead cut losses you carry losses and create position in xyz against your abc position.
effectively you actually already cut loss, but still carry risk that both your animals can bite you if they tear.
or if the leg you locked losses with lags in volatility.
So effectively you have taken a loss that you will still need to manage. 3:1 odds against your favour.
have 5 possibilities your losses may increase , and have 1 possibility that you may recover some thing from you managing.
  • #49,696
  • Aug 30, 2014 7:51am Aug 30, 2014 7:51am
http://www.economist.com/blogs/econo...iwanaredivided



http://qz.com/257540/hong-kongs-batt...-this-weekend/
  • #49,697
  • Aug 30, 2014 7:51am Aug 30, 2014 7:51am
I did want to clarify that the scenario I came across with, while I took place in the arb hedge scenario, was actually man made forest fire.
Viscous morph and gave me the ugly & steep directional PA. As fti described previously in one post,manipulation. Only managed 1 tf then.
I saw the smoke signal on the -pair and made a move since the fire hadn't overtook as much land.
Still, I'm not sure if the cross would of worked, as I've said, I don't follow their reactions, so Idk.
I did have a question though. fti, is this considered playing in mud, when you can take advantage of these happenings, in a nimble manner? I feel this can be a mkt weakness, as mkt does over extend these moves(so far from my journey). I still don't have too much experience using other pairs on tears, as I've only had two real successes and the occasions were a bit rare. I don't want to be on the fast lane to get totally burnt though
  • #49,698
  • Edited 8:18am Aug 30, 2014 7:58am | Edited 8:18am
Quoting Swis
I did want to clarify that the scenario I came across with, while I took place in the arb hedge scenario, was actually man made forest fire. Animal viciously morphed and gave me the ugly & steep directional PA. As fti described previously in one post,manipulation. Only managed 1 tf then. I saw the smoke signal on the -pair and made a move since the fire hadn't overtook as much land. Still, I'm not sure if the cross would of worked, as I've said, I don't follow their reactions, so Idk. I did have a question though. fti, is this considered playing...
you talking losses and you talking arbitrage.
an arbitrage is a back to back ops. Risk profile is always square if you arbitraging.
and P&L should be flat to plus.
you managing a loss arbitrage?
I don't know anyone that does any kind of arbitrage for a loss.

regards

The truth is the trade was a risk position and you escalating risk cutting loss.
simple term is.
you cutting loss. but you increasing risk . increasing capital usage because you would surely be on the wrong side of the cross net position wise.
.
I give you live example.
let say you long euro.
to cross on cable yo need sell cable.
look at the euro cable chart.
you think carefully. where your cost.
remember you giving spread edge on both the positions also.
So in real life you already cut your losses and still end up with doubled risk.
notwithstanding that yo need pay bro both way square out.

The important point i trying to make is that you are cutting loss if you cross, the position.
after cutting loss you still not even squared. instead have doubled your risk.
after legging the cross you have double the exposure of the initial loss trade.
and the positions are trading against each other.
  • #49,699
  • Aug 30, 2014 8:08am Aug 30, 2014 8:08am
Quoting fti
{quote} you talking losses and you talking arbitrage. an arbitrage is a back to back ops. Risk profile is always square if you arbitraging. and P&L should be flat to plus. you managing a loss arbitrage? I don't know anyone that does any kind of arbitrage for a loss. regards The truth is the trade was a risk position and you escalating risk cutting loss. simple term is. you cutting loss. but you increasing risk . increasing capital usage because you would surely be on the wrong side of the cross net position wise. .
The arb was a winner, only aimed at b/e in such case but my slow fingers took a while to press 'x' so next thing I know it was a winner. It wasn't pure arb though, it was the one retailers get, the risk one. I saw in investopedia
http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/arbitrage/
ah but thanks for the explanation, it does seem like I put loads more risk, and should of really just cut loss. :-)and I was thinking that to be the answer, but was curious then to see where creativity led me when the option presented itself.In such case, I can turn also, but I had something in me that decided to hedge it.
  • #49,700
  • Edited 8:35am Aug 30, 2014 8:22am | Edited 8:35am
tuition will be paid, when you try flying before walking..

Quoting forks
http://www.economist.com/blogs/econo...iwanaredivided http://qz.com/257540/hong-kongs-batt...-this-weekend/
oh man, let's not get into this discussion.. unless you posted to ask fti's opinion on this..
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