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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #15,921
  • Aug 28, 2014 6:17pm Aug 28, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting infinitus
I see a nice impulsive wave up since the low question is: is this the c-wave impulse of an ABC-flat, the A-wave of an ABC-zigzag, or the wave 1 of an impulse? Answers? Anyone?
answer is: 'that is the question, what is your answer'
always slightly curious about the eliotticians insofar as often agreement on counts is often only achieved retrospectively.

Signs of reversal are there on H4 but confirmation not yet, that would need around 321.
D1 and above remain bearish, whilst H1 and intraday some bucks can be made on the way up
  • #15,922
  • Edited 6:27am Aug 29, 2014 4:07am | Edited 6:27am
NATO meeting 4-5th September, expecting agressive actions against Russia or some sort of Ukraine NATO collaboration, overall Gold bullish. WIll have longs ready on 5th, pendings will post pending entries.

AUDJPY broken channel, have been posting about this one few weeks ago to go upside.
http://prntscr.com/4hl12x
We have h4 setup now for still more upside possibly
http://prntscr.com/4hl1n0

Gold ..short entry on supply, could go down from current price however:
http://prntscr.com/4hl1zw

EDIT:
Weakness in dollar, possible down moves soon.
http://prntscr.com/4hlx4b
http://prntscr.com/4hlxij
  • #15,923
  • Aug 29, 2014 8:24am Aug 29, 2014 8:24am
Sooo what r they gonna do....Vlado is on the spiked.....c who blinks first concerning sanctions??? Most severe sanctions surely r not coming from the EU...NATO however can move some hardware up north..if that counts for anything...Russia is not reacting well to threads..Hard sanctions however may be the way to go and piss the people of Russia off enough to step up and rumble....these days the protester may not get shot or being deported to Siberia anymore I hope....

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0PJ21020140708

One thing is for sure ..the Germans among others do not want to freeze their rear end off...this perhaps cold and wet winter....??
  • #15,924
  • Aug 30, 2014 11:57am Aug 30, 2014 11:57am
http://dublinsmick.wordpress.com/201...bola-epidemic/
http://udumakalu.wordpress.com/2014/...as-bio-weapon/
http://humansarefree.com/2014/08/geo...nda-gates.html

Can happily say i have never bought any software from this globalist dude called Gates and will happily pirate anything he comes out with.
At moment Ebola has spread over many African countries and its not being stoped at all it just keeps growing despite all the measures.
So we have Ebola bombarding from one side, possible global war from other, possible gas blockade for Europe in winter from third, ISIS and creation of full Middle east war on fourth. Basically proper risk to humanity overall.


@TraderPablo Noone will or is blinking on sanctions becouse those who are expected to blink are actually creating - filling the sanctions. Mind that all economists that tried to predict that sanctions will not expand further since March or May keep failing. There is a reason for that. Thats very important point to understand. Do not be fulled by numbers that economies will suffer from sanctions, those are not in play of hits there is much bigger scenario player behind.
For example Germany will be hit by 200 billion loss from sanctions and yet Merkel is about to expand them more, obviously this is not what they (globalists) worried about. Same for UK, and Cameron himself has suggested kicking Russia from Swifth which will deal great damange to UK financial sector too.
Lets say for Germany that is biggest economy in EU, that 200 billion is not that big number and that there is something much more that Germany could lose. How about 50 trillion of swaps from JPM to DB on its balance sheet (which could implode with liquidity crunch, destroying western currencies in inflation cycle), or how about Chinese overtake of export market and financial market, and full wealth swap from west to east with gold acumulation in next 5 to 10 years, which would damage all banks that claim they have gold but actually do not have it. Just look at production in China how they are producing certain copies of biggest western companies on warfare, wellfare, industry for 1 fifth or less cost pretty much brining 90% same result of from it. China can retake EUs outputs by majority in next 20 years if Russia can provide all they need from resources. Or how about dollar backed financial system that is seamlessly combined between all western nations no matter if you are EU country or USA you are in same system. So provoking Russia into conflict and starting global war would aswell place China in too, and everything that stands as obstracle would be removed, by victory of west. Just listen to Putins military advisor he places it nicely into short context. Its transfer of old financial system to new one, and they come trough war all along history. But to start war you need (or can do) to provoke enemy and sever all ties to it, which is what sanctions are for. Now you might think i talk bullshit or exagurate, but you can go back and see that Nato did got involved in Ukraine and Russia did send proper Russian forces over boarder like i said it would happen. And be sure new sanctions will follow on September 5th or even bigger things. Focous on gold meanwhile.
  • #15,925
  • Aug 30, 2014 2:45pm Aug 30, 2014 2:45pm
So we have Ebola bombarding from one side, possible global war from other, possible gas blockade for Europe in winter from third, ISIS and creation of full Middle east war on fourth. Basically proper risk to humanity overall.

You may also also call it "natural and unnatural population control" by the globe...cnr or later smthg is gonna have to give...shrinking resources vs. growing populations....we have no infinity here...
  • #15,926
  • Aug 30, 2014 3:15pm Aug 30, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting TraderPablo
So we have Ebola bombarding from one side, possible global war from other, possible gas blockade for Europe in winter from third, ISIS and creation of full Middle east war on fourth. Basically proper risk to humanity overall. You may also also call it "natural and unnatural population control" by the globe...cnr or later smthg is gonna have to give...shrinking resources vs. growing populations....we have no infinity here...
Yep, its called unnatural or rather artificial control of Earths population, by those who control the sandbox.
  • #15,927
  • Aug 30, 2014 4:28pm Aug 30, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yep, its called unnatural or rather artificial control of Earths population, by those who control the sandbox.
MONEY
  • #15,928
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:40am Sep 1, 2014 1:40am
Quoting 2046
{quote} answer is: 'that is the question, what is your answer' always slightly curious about the eliotticians insofar as often agreement on counts is often only achieved retrospectively. Signs of reversal are there on H4 but confirmation not yet, that would need around 321. D1 and above remain bearish, whilst H1 and intraday some bucks can be made on the way up

LOL

Isn't that the case for any analysis when trading related?

Or why is it, that most of all traders and analysts are constantly wrong, regardless of their method?
  • #15,929
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:47am Sep 1, 2014 1:47am
EU

EW count 4h TF


the fact, that we have so much momentum in the proposed wave red 5 of blue 3 is a bit annoying and should raise suspicious. We love to see the highest momentum in wave 3.

But every here and then I have seen waves, where the most momentum was in wave 3, but when looking into the subwaves of that wave the highest momentum sometimes occurred also in the waves 1 or 5

Beside of all that: the bet right now to the downside, from a sentiment point of view, is very one sided. This is reflected by COT data as well as other sentiment data, which show that the USD bears right now are only around 10%, but the EUR bears around 90%.

You know what happens most of the time when a bet gets to one sided.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_4 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 45 KB
  • #15,930
  • Sep 1, 2014 2:55am Sep 1, 2014 2:55am
EU

Murrey Math levels and direction

probability for a bigger bounce in the 3092-3062 area is getting quiet huge


Keep in mind:

around 3090 is the POC of the last 32 months. It has a great chance of getting hit(+/- 10 pips)

Break of this POC may lead to the low- or no-business zones in the 2765 and below zone, foremost 2680 and below


But such strong POC's like the 3090 one most of the time get a rejection first. There are eventually a lot of "historical" positions, which were in heavy drawdown meanwhile, and people will like to get rid of them (only to notice later, that price drops further down)

We will see soon enough. I will play a bounce with cascading long orders down into the 3060 range, starting near 3100


Short term there is upside pressure now, may even go as high as 3153 without invalidating this subwave 5 impulse down. @ 3185 invalidation of the wave 5 down will happen
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,931
  • Sep 1, 2014 4:52am Sep 1, 2014 4:52am
Quoting infinitus
EU EW count 4h TF the fact, that we have so much momentum in the proposed wave red 5 of blue 3 is a bit annoying and should raise suspicious. We love to see the highest momentum in wave 3. But every here and then I have seen waves, where the most momentum was in wave 3, but when looking into the subwaves of that wave the highest momentum sometimes occurred also in the waves 1 or 5 Beside of all that: the bet right now to the downside, from a sentiment point of view, is very one sided. This is reflected by COT data as well as other sentiment data,...

EU

EW count 12h TF

this count would reflect the momentum inside of the waves much better. In doing so, the count is more bearish than the other count shown

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_12 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 56 KB
  • #15,932
  • Sep 1, 2014 8:12am Sep 1, 2014 8:12am
http://www.risk.net/


interesting link
  • #15,933
  • Sep 1, 2014 8:19am Sep 1, 2014 8:19am
Hello to The Club!

2014.09.01. EurUsd H4:

1#:
Butterfly target reached 161.8% extension (maroon fibo), given the butterfly buy signal.
Target is also 161.8% extension (grey fibo).
Invalidation point is the lowest low.

2#:
Seems market is respecting the grey fibonacci so far. (attached image: m30)

3#:
While on m15...(attached image: m15)

Dear traders, what do You think?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.09.01. EurUsd butterfly target.png Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.09.01. EurUsd m30.png Size: 23 KB
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f(z)=z2+c
  • #15,934
  • Sep 1, 2014 8:53am Sep 1, 2014 8:53am
Quoting hathor
Hello to The Club! 2014.09.01. EurUsd H4: 1#: Butterfly target reached 161.8% extension (maroon fibo), given the butterfly buy signal. Target is also 161.8% extension (grey fibo). Invalidation point is the lowest low. 2#: Seems market is respecting the grey fibonacci so far. (attached image: m30) 3#: While on m15...(attached image: m15) Dear traders, what do You think? {image} {image} {image}

Hi Hathor,

if price moves above 3180, then I do look towards 3215, and the move would then most likely be the C-wave of an ABC-flat

So far, down from the 3220 top from 28th of Aug. the move is only 3 waves. So primarily I do look for some targets further down the road, optimally towards 3092 to 3062.

I think this scenario has the highest likelihood. After that drop, chances are very high, that we will visit the 320 area again.
  • #15,935
  • Sep 1, 2014 10:35am Sep 1, 2014 10:35am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Hathor, if price moves above 3180, then I do look towards 3215, and the move would then most likely be the C-wave of an ABC-flat So far, down from the 3220 top from 28th of Aug. the move is only 3 waves. So primarily I do look for some targets further down the road, optimally towards 3092 to 3062. I think this scenario has the highest likelihood. After that drop, chances are very high, that we will visit the 320 area again.
Thank You!
Will keep an eye on that possible down leg...
f(z)=z2+c
  • #15,936
  • Sep 1, 2014 10:49am Sep 1, 2014 10:49am
I've taken some shorts more (@ 1.3133) till 1.3070/60.
One bigger H4 candles could be sufficient, ...everywhere, ...anytime.
(All my longer term trades are long with an MM till 1.20, if so.)
So long as 1.3163 (mR1) shouldn't be running down I take the risk over, ...more downside.
Let's see.
FXcube

Der Vorteil der Klugheit besteht darin, dass man sich dumm stellen kann. Das Gegenteil ist schon schwieriger. ... Kurt Tucholsky.
  • #15,937
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:13pm Sep 1, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting janpec1000
NATO meeting 4-5th September, expecting agressive actions against Russia or some sort of Ukraine NATO collaboration, overall Gold bullish. WIll have longs ready on 5th, pendings will post pending entries. AUDJPY broken channel, have been posting about this one few weeks ago to go upside. http://prntscr.com/4hl12x We have h4 setup now for still more upside possibly http://prntscr.com/4hl1n0 Gold ..short entry on supply, could go down from current price however: http://prntscr.com/4hl1zw EDIT: Weakness in dollar, possible...
Everything worked out, all three of predictions (charts). Managed to get some pips of Gold.

GCHF meanwhile looks good for more upside on GBP strenght, but possibly not much. Red line represents buying valid as long as line holds:
http://prntscr.com/4io4s8
However shorts are better option from area 1.530-1.540 with big SL above daily high.
  • #15,938
  • Sep 1, 2014 12:13pm Sep 1, 2014 12:13pm
Horvat

EU EW count

http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ell...er/2014/09/01/
  • #15,939
  • Sep 1, 2014 1:24pm Sep 1, 2014 1:24pm
Hi, Infinitus, buddy

I am back to work now. So I am glad you are well and doing your the Club job.
Let us continue discussing and processing the project.

Best regads
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #15,940
  • Edited 3:11pm Sep 1, 2014 2:56pm | Edited 3:11pm
Quoting hathor
Hello to The Club! 2014.09.01. EurUsd H4: 1#: Butterfly target reached 161.8% extension (maroon fibo), given the butterfly buy signal. Target is also 161.8% extension (grey fibo). Invalidation point is the lowest low. 2#: Seems market is respecting the grey fibonacci so far. (attached image: m30) 3#: While on m15...(attached image: m15) Dear traders, what do You think? {image} {image} {image}
Oh boy, I was wrong , the butterfly's target is not the A-B leg's extension.
So I would like to correct myself:

A butterfly contains an X,A,B,C,D point.
The rules, which define the structure are:

  1. B point must be the 0.768 extension (orange) of the X-A leg: COMPLETED
  2. C point must be between the 0.382-0.886 extension (pink) of the A-B leg: COMPLETED
  3. D point must be between the 1.272-2.618 extension (orange) of the X-A leg: ?

  1. Note: The ideal turn is between the 1.272-1.618 extension of the X-A leg!

This means D point must be between ~1.3040-1.31340 (~100pips!), but the ideal level is between 1.31100-1.31340.

! Invalidation: < ~1.30400 !

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
f(z)=z2+c
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