Technical Analysis Fallacy

are you sure the fish didn't come from the mountains.
it looks very fresh.

regards

get it?
fresh water fish.

regards

solli was privates joke.
if yo go into treasury, and they calles you fresh water fish.
Try get some salt.

regards

normally they will ask, is iti swimming first.
if is , then they will guessing , are you goldfish?


regards

ok ok, for those my friends still blur.
some fish good to look at, no edible value.

regards

tiger, stop 混水摸魚!

ahhh see it moves.
very fresh.

regards

ooops here comes the fork.

regards

just joking , no be too serious.
solli i cannot delete post.my comp seems already not mine.


regards

already informed ghost busters.
but they busy.
so li wait see when they ok to help me out.


regards

Dear diary,

Today I was a duck

oh shit.
How bad damaged? in % of account.
Or you already planned for damage, and just tryng to scare me?

regards

Hopefully you got to see the original texts of post while you were on,
removed it because I was not comfortable with it. :/
1%
Hope you're well

Ai ya 1%, thats nothing.
You not believe you invincible pls hor.
No one is.
There no traders in the world who never takes loss.

The only difference between pros and novice is pros know they on the stiring.
when take losses is small and affordable.
when take profits is big and BIG.
Pros tend enjoy BIG when is no pain.

Remember be humble.
The day you think you invincible, is the day the downfall begins.

Next time you scare me with 1% loss, i will fine you to your max 3%.
The extra 2% is the price for scaring me. You can donate that to the gf of your choice.
Becareful hor, when you trading big time, can be a carload hor.

regards

me, if i was well i would be all over the planet.
Yo think if i was well i would be sitting here talking?
as well as i can be under the circumstances.

Anyway i praying thank God for still breathing,
Few peeps gets to survive 2 myoldcardac infucktion and a minor stroke.
i am already very lucky.

some peeps can do fortune telling. But thats not my forte.

Don't worry, be comfortable. Have a little faith in me, would ya? :-) :-)
I'm only in this business to buy back love and help the needy around me. I don't care much for money(not saying I'm gambler)--I'm still very young, to me this is learning. Yearn to learn not earn when young. Truth is, I was hopeless, not a believer of god because I thought I had control in life. It wasn't until certain things happened that I crumbled to my knees and prayed for an answer and it lead me to where I'm at. If you had to ask me how deep my studies were, my ambition was intense from the get-go. But I could have all the ambition in the world and still not receive an answer. I was guided by something more than I can describe. Now it is all a blur and I can't explain much to you. I'm sure you see or sense indirectly what I understand.
I already know I can't make a decent living trading because of small capital, so I've been searching for prop firms/banks around my community to see what doors can be opened for me. I only try to build p&l to show and hopefully that works. Otherwise, I'm still in school, so I can try my best to earn a degree since it is a much needed proxy apparently. Hopefully I don't catch the rigid disease.My health does not provide me an easy road at school, so I thought might as well try and find answers myself. And I found more than I thought I would--enough to change my entire being tenfold. When I get to 300%, I will take a step down and slow down the music and seek salary. Managing positions that are your own are highly stressful. I've been through hell and back and read all I could, danced all I could with the time offered and the pie of life makes all the sense to me now--in very intense detail. I barely came to this realization last week, but I can manage to make losses tiny, and make winners big now under heavy adversity. Unless the duck thing happens, where I just ran lols I thank you mostly not for the abilities you helped me see within me, but because of the amount of life I received.To my understanding, you have recently make it seem that this is your bonus time. I think this was the pale flower in the garden and you've come to ultimate realizations of honor that make you at lvls still light years beyond me to see. See, I never placed you an alter, I just admired what you represent by reading your texts thoughtfully.I hope it does the spirit good to know you rescue some boy with ASD and I'm sure you will incur further blessings beyond imagination.

i see.

From the time you started posting on the thread i detected something in you.
Diamonds , but in the raw. That same feel i got for tiger4.

Is the drive factor.
Dealers and yuppy like me on the fast lanes need have that as winds beneath the wings.
The drive/desire factor. Diamonds in the raw.
But i was affraid it could turn out to be your acheles heel , if not supervised approaprately.
My biggest fear was nurturing half pail of water,because i really really have little energy left carry this load.
And may not finish what i started.

You see, every hot shot trader who takes on the markets, sooner or later meets with some kinda success time windows.
sometimes early sometimes late.
It normally those with the drive, that meets it early.
then the real test begins.

Because from that initial success, they would form their basic mindset modus operandi of the traders persona.
After taste blood.
if the subject allows the success go to the head.
what happens is that drive, can carry the trader to be very careless or forceful.
Thereby creating a launch pad thats risk driven.
Such personalities, will ultimately create the undertone for the plunge.
But if such personality can accept the success gracefully and hold humble,
then the continual energies will contribute to "a little a day , one day it builds to become a hill."

In you i felt that energies.
But seems very forceful to push.
Alpha type energies.
The stuff , go getters are made of.

For me it was God's guidance from Jesus's teaching held me whole.
Sometimes i err. I am super Alpha and very gungho and very beyond naughty. Thats why i always gets into the deep end.
But i quickly find myself again, from Jesus words.
But of course i take time off, and allow my inner stability find its own balance again.
So in many ways i owe Jesus heaps for always being there when i lost myself.

What i am try to say to you is, if you can find it.
You no need rush. Because like markets the opportunitis will always be there.
The only question is, will you be there?

I cannot tell you how you should live life. I am just another human.
But i like you try to understand, things come things go.
Not all things we loss , which we think are good is so.
Sometimes is from the loss that we can take a step back and move even further and farther than if we forced.
Let things come by natural ways, settle in our inner stability and then when we feel naturally able , we step forward cautiously.

Your ASD thingy, don't think about it.
Thinking about it won't change anything.
Just try understand self's abilities and ease forward in way when one is comfortable to move forward.
The world has all the conforms that they want expect.
Just do what one is comfortable to do. If it meets their standards, fine.
Otherwise is still fine.
No one live same life as anyone else.
everyone makes their own life. Have own standards and walk comfortably within own standards.

Look , if is any consolation, Mr G soros came from a war zone , i believing would be lacking all sorts.
But see, he make good. If you want talk about successful traders, the man made billions already.
Which other successful trader you know made that? not even WD gann and some the dennis turtles.
And we talking about the cream of the crop.
You never know, some of us already very near the end of our rope.
You just a baby. So give yourself the time and the chance get there. No need to rush.
No one will know, you just get there 1 day at a time , easy and comfortably.
No need worry about the desire, you already have the alpha drive.
But be careful not drive on the wrong way.

You have nothing you need to proof to anyone else , only to you/self.
And bottom line performance its speaks, If its there its there.
if its not then nothing said changes anything.

Just be the best you can be.
And remember , try not to be too forceful.
Be natural. Naturally good.

regards

i just realised, you know boxing.
when force coming at you side step it best you can.
And when you feel you in nice balance, give em the natural practised combinations.

Live simple life.
"Living simple not mean you need own nothing.
Only try have nothing owns you.".........................eeeer cannot remember who taught.

hi swis,

i think with small capital(but still quite big, enough for passive income to be generated) it is still possible to make a decent living, from trading, but it takes time to slowly build account size.
since we can't force the markets, we can flow with the markets. while time is always flowing, so is interest rates, we could use it to flow with the market, by structuring our strategy into a 2 tier risk parity book, the first higher risk book follows fti's methodology, while the 2nd tier book which contains lower risk, provides fixed monthly income to keep being added and split among the 2 accounts. this could be 1 way to improve account size and lower VAR of the portfolio, and improve the sharpe ratio. as for the 2nd tier book, there are quite afew ways to, select a strategy for it, but what matters is that it is a lower risk, low reward, high probability strategy, if you can hedge out the risk and make it 100% reward by letting time work for you, it will be best.

so the idea is to let some other component of the market work out for you if 1 part of the market where your main source of income is not working out,
consider the options, there is time and vols, which price premium, there is intrinsic value, which price in market movements, then there is the interest rates and dividends which are also in the calculation, but not often talked about, so what we can say is that the variables in the options describe quite a huge part of the markets, and maybe we can form some idea how we can choose a combination of these factors to provide a positive slow and progressive way for the markets to work in your favour to structure the 2nd tiered book.

also this way, it should ease the stress on you, since if you feel you need a break from the markets, there is always another portion of your book that continually increases your account size, and you could just maybe go on holiday or something to revitalize yourself.

Thanks, it all makes a lot of sense though, I'm not that educated in understanding what seems complex hedging strategies yet, though I've crossed looking the terminology up, I have 0 understanding or exp in actually effectively putting them into application successfully. Most of my gains were ant hill work, and one risk arbitrage opportunity I spotted recently. The thing is, I don't like thinking my account will be blown off because I lack proper padding. Nor a sub-account to be blown up. At this point little money is starting to seem not so time efficient. I've dedicated my time and effort to understand mkt structure at a high & detailed level. I jumped on to demo recently and tried big capital 100k, and found a little more success aggressively trading(cash making vs time),-- I',m sure emotions factored in. Something I can't carry with my live small cap--just due to blockage. My scout size is tiny, I'm mostly making a couple dollars being right, plus my attack is low enough to be managed in cases where I'm part of a different move and can spot things shaping up. And recently as fti pointed out, the market is going through something. 5 min almost looks like 1 min now on with its tiny gaps and whipsaws at times or my charting software sucks. The big currencies and I've traded 5 mins only for almost a year, so the difference is there for me to see. Either that, or I'm going insane. I have a pair of hawk eyes and as of recent crosses, and oil currency have been making me loads just because the battlefield is readable and smooth--more honest,lacks traps. I still haven't even touched cable in like a month. That thing is fucking nuts. As of recent, I've been reading about other instruments and trying to get an understanding on how to manage effectively just in case the worst happens. My skills in circle trading are becoming sharp so I've found some solutions playing. Weirdly around the same time fti pointed out solutions in thread. (It's getting awkward bumping into each other LOL) Besides, I've enjoyed playing with high understanding and would like to be seated around people my age and meet friends and characters with expression who like this game. Trading alone is a bit lonely, especially since I keep it secret. I'm young, and prefer not to be just online all day long without some life, so once I reach my goal, I'm just going to focus my attention living normally-- but still keeping an eye out for any prop t opportunities.
Also more on hedging, based on my personal experience hedging just mostly results in less wins, & equally less losses-not perfect. I don't engage mostly because I can't control the time of the usual hedging strategies I've come across so to me it is a gamble. I've only tried hedging successfully in a short time window twice, both of which worked. And were a result of risk arbitrage. The negative correlated pair had a forward progression, whereas, I was stuck with a negative balance on the positive one. But I had seen the move wasn't as big as the negatively correlated pair(this does not occur often and these moments are rare but I see them when I'm wired), so I upped the amount(don't ask me how I did it, it was instinct no math involved, all happened very fast) and took a reverse position to make it catch up with it and closed my losing trade earlier. The reverse position ended up being an overall winner of both trades, where it did save me, but I had that window of opportunity to rescue. I hope I make sense, but understand I can only feel the rhythm of the market, and play cards with what I'm offered(sync well). Everything else in finance is a mystery for me,interest rates, reports, overall economic indicators, modern portfolio management theories and especially the maths. But I'm trying to best understand it as a whole and have made progress.

made a currency exchange today for a free cup of coffee.

it was for a certain barista that i know, who works at a certain global chain of coffee shops..

she's flying out to see her boyfriend and needed foreign currency.

i exchanged the amount she wanted at a bank with my own money, and then exchanged that with her.

and i got a free cup of coffee.

What? Half filled water pail. No, I got the other supply of water somehow. I did work over time trying to understand your words and the books, but it all came down like gravity, and I've been slowly building experience for a while. Not just like random experience, very astute experience. Even with such understanding the market is a tough game sometimes. It seriously makes me think I should work in the fields--consistent pay lol. But just like business owners, I have to embrace winters and springs. To me it was new type of thinking, but I at least got to know life's understanding at the top. Some people will not know in detail, or understand it to my realizations. Besides you taught me very well how to play cards, so naturally I just enjoy it. By the way did you ever take any martial arts? I think it has to be a bank's HR department's basic criteria in order to be enlisted. They asking for rigid mindset paper, but not free-flowing discipline nowadays. I've loads of friends graduating, but all end up so full of themselves, and still cannot think big or for themselves, most even go backwards. You know, rogue trader personality. Very bizarre here in California Chase the norm, come out with 25k debt, no high end job promises, a child to manage, drug addiction and 0 understanding of life. That's too much risk for me "It's called the american dream, because you gotta be asleep to believe it."