Trading the 'FAKE or BREAK'

It's been a while since I posted regularly on the forum. I have traded many styles and ways over the years and for one reason or another I never seemed to stick to one system. After reading the first few pages of an excellent thread by ghous called 'mastering the art of trading' ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=444115 )
I took a step away from the distraction of the 'trading system' forum, from so called 'traders', many of which professed to be full-time professional traders and from the claims that their systems were 90% accurate.

Over the past year i've took the ideas first given to me by reading the ghous thread and adapted them to suit myself. This has proven fruitful.

I'm starting this journal so it will help me collect my thoughts and trades in one place and who knows it may help others to become better traders, so please join in as I will end up getting bored and lonely here lol.

the attached file gives a good idea of the way I now trade, so please read it.(file removed for update)

i'll post some of my current trades later....

current positions...........

Hi Kraven,

Interesting idea.
I also try some sort or "Fade or Break" but I use volume instead of RSI.

Like this (using your EURJPY example):

4H shrinking volume at SR:



5M (massive) shrinking volume at SR (at exact reversal):

Hi Mingary,

Very nice. I don't have much luck with volume on forex. I've always been lead to believe it's not true volume rather more of a duplication of candle length of sorts? However those indicators are new to me, can you explain them further?

An important trading aspect I tend to use is to trade with what I see is the trend direction....so if a fakeout fails and becomes a breakout I don't take the breakout as it will be against the trend at that time.

It's been a very good open for my trades in post 2

Closed 2 positions on EU for 100pips each
Closed the sells on UJ for a few pips loss. We now have a 'breaky' but i'll wait to see if the Sunday gap closes to place my orders

Place a sell order on a 'breaky' on GU



A risky breaky entry on EG. it has recently came back down from reaching the daily 50 fib...so hopefully little upside as it's already been there. price has broken through S and 38 fib, however we have the 20 and 50ma's below.



Would be looking to Buy the breakout on UCad where purple dash line is, however the big RN 1.1000 is just above. I will wait as i expect a bounce of this, then will look for a buy entry.

It's based on the attached info which I adapted for my use.

Thanks for the pdf Mingary. I'll read it later and see if it can advance my trading.

trades from post 5:

The GU pending sell hasn't been triggered, will leave in place

EG worked out well, some +20 pips. It's bouncing on the 50 ma so moved to BE.

UCad bounce off 1.1000 area as I said, so will wait and see how this one goes.

trades from post 2:

the EU trade left is +50 pips so I took some and now have a free bet with SL at 1.3272

EJ trades are now +75 pips up, i've locked in some profit. looking for 3690 and 3653 for TP's

ECad fell +66 pips before turning around, just short of my +80 TP, SL is at BE on this one, although i may re-enter.

ANz is up some +100 pips but is now tackling the 61.8 daily fib, took some profit and moved to BE.

AU trades are in nice profit some +20 and +40 although the last candle has turned up. SL to BE on both

GJ has started to it's 'fakey' . Must push through 20ma



just placed a sell order on GChf. Trend is down so i'm looking for a fakey here. If i get it then my profit target is +150 pips

hi guys, tks for your topic, all that i found is here.

UCad bounce off 1.1000 area as I mentioned, so i waited till PB and entered a buy (as trend up and looking for breaky) at 1.095. RSI at 50 so plenty upside there.

ECad pulled back but falls again. will keep this running with a price TP of 300+ pips

AU trades out for BE

Trades are going very well

After the pullback ECad has fallen further, some +70 pips now. will look to add soon



EU has dropped further +60pips, ANz is up +120, EJ some +80 pips and GU could eventually Breakout

seems euro is falling quicker then i planned EU trade +90 now, ECad (pic in post 10 and here) has dropped over +120 pips so I've took some profit, ANz hit TP1 and closed at 136.90 for +95.

Entered another ECad. first order +150 pips



AU looking for a fakey again.

EG entry moving well now, need to pass 23 fib. +35 looking for +85.

All other trades doing well except for UCad. looking for price to turn up.

GChf pending sell (fakey) just got triggered

Getting 'fat fingers' at one point on ECad as trade 1 was up over +200 pips at one point, was tempted to close. entries 2 and 3 are up +70 and +50. (pic in post 12)

Started to hedge on UCad.

EG bounced of 23 fib as mentioned in last post, hopefully it will be pushed back off 50ma

took entry 1 on ECad for +220 pips (couldn't resist) and entry 2 for +100, entry 3 still running around +100 pips now

EJ hit both second TP 13653 for +125 pips (bounced off breakout line), if it crosses i'll be looking to re-enter as a 'breaky'

I believe every trader, no matter what system they use should bear in mind past data. I know the past can't be relied on to predict the future. However we have little else to go on unless your a psychic and have a crystal ball. the system i use here looks at the recent trend based on past data and SR lines based on past data.

One other past statistic I look at is seasonal trends. Most of the info I look at is currencies/us dollar, and this is what its telling me:

EU: i have a down trend and yet Sept is traditional a big up month

UC: up trend/sept up month

AU: down trend/ sept no direction

GU: down trend/sept down month

UJ: up trend/sept a big down month

Nz/U down trend/sept small up month

bearing this in mind i'm going to close 2 of my EU trade (mentioned in post 2 first pic) for +120 each

Been another good week, with a lot of pips banked (for different lot sizes). Tried to keep this thread current and up to date this week with pic's and entries as soon as I had time.

Current positions:

EU 1 entry left at +100

UC is going against me so started hedging to prolong SL and give this trade a chance (max loss would be -60)

AU trading even

EC +110 (forgot to put TP at 1.4255 which would have been hit)

GJ currently a loss at -50

GU pending sell not triggered

UJ 3 trades +130, +100, even

GChf -70 (just hit SL to the pip at 1.5222)

ANz +100 (moved tp to 1.1886)

EG +45

AU trade has moved well since last post and have just closed for +65 (aussie GDP just released)
EC has went from +130 (10 pips from my TP) to pull right under my SL at +25
GU got triggered and is +60 pips SL to BE
UJ trades all closed for +190, +160 and +60 at 104.70 as I was expecting a bounce but I should of in hindsight added another 'breakout' trade at 104.80 (still good trading)
ANz hit tp for +111

GJ getting away from me, should have let it hit my SL but moved it.



just sold 'breaky' on NzU at 8303

looking for fakey on EJ
pondering 'breaky' on GChf but 100ma currently under price.


.......so a great couple of days

did well getting out of AU last night as a big rally today would have took all those pips. however, the ANz i could have hung on in (but this is the problem of trading multiple plays). Now looking for 'breaky' on this pair at 1.1228

EU has bounced off the next 'breaky' line at 1.311. my sell at 1.3178 is at BE as the EU often rallies in Sept.

EC hit sl at +25, bounced straight off 23fib and headed south again. will look for another 'breaky' soon

UC still in play (hedging experiment)

GJ has started a nice pullback to entry (gotta learn to stick to the stops)

as mentioned before...GChf 'breaky' happened but missed entry....will watch.

as mentioned before...just sold EJ at 137.82 on a 'Fakey'

just entered GU at 1.6448 on another 'breaky'. I took half of my first bet at +80 and SL to BE and placed that half here and moved SL to first bet. so both are free bets!! it's a nice technique I like to use.

NEARLY entered this EG fakey..

I know some will be suffering with the ECB rate cut but i'm flying. It's been a great day,. It gives a big reminder why SL's are essential. All trades have went with my trend 'breaks' or 'fakes'. From yesterday....

EU has bounced off the next 'breaky' line at 1.311. my sell at 1.3178 is at BE as the EU often rallies in Sept.
...entered again at 'break' of 1.311 and closed it almost immediately for +150 pips. my sell at 1.3178 is still going at +230

EC hit sl at +25, bounced straight off 23fib and headed south again. will look for another 'breaky' soon.
....'breaky' happened at 1.4256. sold and hit TP at 1.4055 for +185 pips. next 'breaky' area is big 1.4017 - 1.3940. so i'll sit for a while and see

UC still in play (hedging experiment)
still hedging

GJ has started a nice pullback to entry (gotta learn to stick to the stops)
.....as this had pulled away negatively from my entry I moved to BE which got hit so out for zero, would have been in a nice profit now lol

as mentioned before...GChf 'breaky' happened but missed entry....will watch.
.....Really lucky here as it shot up

as mentioned before...just sold EJ at 137.82 on a 'Fakey'
..........wooohhh hit tp for +125. just went all the way down and broke 'breaky' line at 136.40. i have sold at 136.37 and have moved to BE after going +35 up..i'm expecting a pullback after such a drop then a continued drop......we'll see.

just entered GU at 1.6448 on another 'breaky'. I took half of my first bet at +80 and SL to BE and placed that half here and moved SL to first bet. so both are free bets!! it's a nice technique I like to use.
.....well another that worked out well currently up +170 and +120. first entry at 1.6448 has a tp of +200 second entry at +180..both are at BE.

another great day

as mentioned before...just sold EJ at 137.82 on a 'Fakey'
..........wooohhh hit tp for +125. just went all the way down and broke 'breaky' line at 136.40. i have sold at 136.37 and have moved to BE after going +35 up..i'm expecting a pullback after such a drop then a continued drop......we'll see.

though it would. out for BE but will enter at same spot again

others i have running but didn't have time to put in last post....all are in profit and most at BE.