Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 234 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #4,661
  • Aug 27, 2014 7:51am Aug 27, 2014 7:51am
Quoting stevefx
{quote} Ok no problem. The points I'm trying to make about this situation are this: 1) There is a Daily Downtrend opposing a Weekly and Monthly Uptrend, with no single valid Demand having been removed on the Weekly and Monthly. 2) There is a very good Risk/Reward Ratio of greater than 5 to 1. 3) There is a nested Daily demand Zone within the Weekly Level that might be used to reduce risk from the Weekly Entry level. 4) The one warning is that the Weekly and Monthly TL's are broken, and so according to the rules, confirmation of new Demand is required...

Hi Steve, i want to try to answer your question with this pictures:

The monthly is up, and is important where the price is right now and what is it behavior in this point can you see it?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYMonthly.png Size: 71 KB




The weekly is DOWN because we have LH and LL use the fractal b williams to see much better


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYWeekly.png Size: 71 KB




and then the daily was in a downtrend (we should take the last two picks) but this is broken and now we have a demand zone (not that great by his formation but...) that cost the broke of trendline, it is 2:1 so we can try to buy in this zone ( the zone is overshot by two pips right now)


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily.png Size: 70 KB
  • #4,662
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:13am Aug 27, 2014 9:13am
Quoting alegargano
{quote} Hi Steve, i want to try to answer your question with this pictures: The monthly is up, and is important where the price is right now and what is it behavior in this point can you see it? {image} The weekly is DOWN because we have LH and LL use the fractal b williams to see much better {image} and then the daily was in a downtrend (we should take the last two picks) but this is broken and now we have a demand zone (not that great by his formation but...) that cost the broke of trendline, it is 2:1 so we can try to buy in this zone ( the zone...
Hi Alegargano, on my daily TL is differntly drawn, there for TL was never solidly broken and price is reacting to daily supply level. Which one is right?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_60 Aug. 27 18.03.jpg Size: 85 KB
Every accomplisment starts with decision to try.
  • #4,663
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:32am Aug 27, 2014 9:32am
Quoting larra
{quote} Hi Alegargano, on my daily TL is differntly drawn, there for TL was never solidly broken and price is reacting to daily supply level. Which one is right? {image}
Hi Larra, take a look at this two pictures:


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-08-27_1822.png Size: 10 KB



Do you aggree with my trendline at 24/07/2014?
try not to look at what happened next and proceed with the formation of HL and LL


In this second picture can you see the broke of trendline the formation of new HL and then the formation of new LL?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-08-27_1823.png Size: 22 KB


I connected the pick of 1/08/2014 with the pick of 3/07/2014 for me two obious pick


What do you think about this reasoning?
  • #4,664
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:48am Aug 27, 2014 9:48am
Quoting alegargano
{quote} Hi Larra, take a look at this two pictures: {image} Do you aggree with my trendline at 24/07/2014? try not to look at what happened next and proceed with the formation of HL and LL In this second picture can you see the broke of trendline the formation of new HL and then the formation of new LL? {image} I connected the pick of 1/08/2014 with the pick of 3/07/2014 for me two obious pick What do you think about this reasoning?
Thank you very much for answering. I guess this is the reason I connected those two (for me) peaks. Look at the chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_61 Aug. 27 18.46.jpg Size: 109 KB


On yours it looks more like a CP.
Every accomplisment starts with decision to try.
  • #4,665
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:56am Aug 27, 2014 9:56am
Quoting larra
{quote} Thank you very much for answering. I guess this is the reason I connected those two (for me) peaks. Look at the chart. {image} On yours it looks more like a CP.


Inserted Video


take a look this video of Alfonso, this is his last webinar, expetially when he talk about the situation of weekly tf on NZDCAD
  • #4,666
  • Aug 27, 2014 10:06am Aug 27, 2014 10:06am
Quoting alegargano
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzyzWskNEpY take a look this video of Alfonso, this is his last webinar, expetially when he talk about the situation of weekly tf on NZDCAD
thank you
Every accomplisment starts with decision to try.
  • #4,667
  • Aug 27, 2014 12:11pm Aug 27, 2014 12:11pm
Quoting stevefx
{quote} Ok no problem. The points I'm trying to make about this situation are this: 1) There is a Daily Downtrend opposing a Weekly and Monthly Uptrend, with no single valid Demand having been removed on the Weekly and Monthly. 2) There is a very good Risk/Reward Ratio of greater than 5 to 1. 3) There is a nested Daily demand Zone within the Weekly Level that might be used to reduce risk from the Weekly Entry level. 4) The one warning is that the Weekly and Monthly TL's are broken, and so according to the rules, confirmation of new Demand is required...

Nice string of charts.. Well done.. Very clear.

TSD
  • #4,668
  • Aug 27, 2014 1:28pm Aug 27, 2014 1:28pm
Quoting larra
{quote} Thank you very much for answering. I guess this is the reason I connected those two (for me) peaks. Look at the chart. {image} On yours it looks more like a CP.

Same here... Nice string of charts.. Well thought out

The Top Down approach ( as Alfonso has spoken to many times ) really makes a difference in ones ability to see where the pressure is moving price. Even within the smaller TF one can use the larger TF see where the pressure is and trade accordingly. Another way to view using higher TF's EURJPY Weekly post # 4661. Notice the trend line drawn. See the Demand below.. The overall structure and pattern... Price tends ( not always ) to be pulled back into the major Supply Demand levels ( higher TF's ).. Another way of looking at what Alfonso refers to as Supply in control or Demand in control. This adds in determining which direction has the higher odds of succeeding. See how the Daily has reacted to a Supply Level heading for a the Weekly Demand below.. Price is being "pulled" so to speak. When I began to see price in this manner my trading took a major step in profitability. This allows me to trade more effectively in the lower TF's. For this discussion, the defined trend is most important.

The basics that Alfonso teaches are the foundation for learning this method. Once you are fully versed in what Alfonso has presented here ( TAKE THE TIME TO LEARN FROM HIM ) your experience will allow you to possibly ?? to explore other opportunities trading Supply Demand. One can use this for both trend and counter trend trades, ( down the road aggressive trading ) as well as trading Range Markets. I mention this only as a point of view.. as I trade slightly different than Alfonso... but the basics are the same !!!

I consistently visit this thread seeing outstanding FREE education happening here. A fantastic opportunity for all wishing to learn. Alfonso, and many others, take the time to answer questions to those moving in their journey of trading Supply Demand trading.

Good trading to all

TSD
  • #4,669
  • Aug 27, 2014 2:09pm Aug 27, 2014 2:09pm
Quoting alegargano
{quote} Hi Steve, i want to try to answer your question with this pictures: The monthly is up, and is important where the price is right now and what is it behavior in this point can you see it? The weekly is DOWN because we have LH and LL use the fractal b williams to see much better and then the daily was in a downtrend (we should take the last two picks) but this is broken and now we have a demand zone (not that great by his formation but...) that cost the broke of trendline, it is 2:1 so we can try to buy in this zone ( the zone is overshot...
Hi alegargano, thanks for your reply.

There are couple of points that you made that I am unsure about.

1) The weekly is down because we made a LH, and a LL.

Wouldn't you say the Weekly is bearish but in consolidation, rather than a downtrend? The reason I say this is because you must take out at least two opposing Demand areas to make a Downtrend. Price has not even removed 1 valid demand area on the Weekly...

2) You can try to buy at the demand which has cause the break of the TL on the Daily.

I thought this applied to the Monthly chart only where there is no context for a higher TF to place it in.

On the Daily you must look at the context of the Higher TF's, which have lost their upward momentum currently. So I think it would be necessary to wait for new demand levels on the H4 before buying from that area.

These were my interpretations, anyway.

Thanks Again, Steve
  • #4,670
  • Aug 27, 2014 4:31pm Aug 27, 2014 4:31pm
Quoting surfclimbfly
Hi all, have been reading this thread with great interest and have downloaded the indicators from the correct source however I'm having a great deal of trouble with the TL settings in the Rectangle Reader. I use the default setting so a trendline only draws, and appears on the current time frame but it doesn't work. I draw a TL on the wk chart, then click to a D1 and back to the W1 and the TLs are gone, and then they show up on the MN charts. It's driving me crazy as there is a lot of work in TLs on all the charts. It has worked before but maybe...
Quoting Psych0F0x
{quote} Haa I get this all the time. After you draw the trendline, refresh! (or Alt->c->r as keyboard shortcut, press in sequence, not together) If you don't refresh it will put it on whatever timeframe you go to next. You can notice that by checking the trendline properties, it will say to show the trendline on a particular TF only. It will "refresh" automatically if you jump to a different TF, thus causing this issue. Hope this solves your problem.
I don't know what the problem could be, it looks like a tick problem, slow markets or markets closed. When ticks are too slow or market is closed, the TL visualization properties won't be changed because it needs a tick to change those parameters, it's the way MT works. That could be the only reason I can think of because the indicator has been tested for months and that problem never happens.

I'd recommend you to use MT4Bar or MT4ticker from Fx1 at https://fx1.net/mt4ticker.php, it will generate 1 tick every 100 milliseconds, or any time you speficy. You won't care about slow markets or closed marlets any more to update any indicator or EA.

Hope that helps
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,671
  • Aug 27, 2014 4:35pm Aug 27, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting stevefx
{quote} Ok no problem. The points I'm trying to make about this situation are this: 1) There is a Daily Downtrend opposing a Weekly and Monthly Uptrend, with no single valid Demand having been removed on the Weekly and Monthly. 2) There is a very good Risk/Reward Ratio of greater than 5 to 1. 3) There is a nested Daily demand Zone within the Weekly Level that might be used to reduce risk from the Weekly Entry level. 4) The one warning is that the Weekly and Monthly TL's are broken, and so according to the rules, confirmation of new Demand is required...
Your analysis on confirmartion for longs makes sense, Eurjpy is in a tricky situation now on the WK and the D1, we need some direction in order to trade swing and position. Lower is great to try longs, in the meantime I am waiting for some direction.

Thanks for sharing your view on EURJPY.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,672
  • Aug 27, 2014 4:40pm Aug 27, 2014 4:40pm
Quoting alegargano
{quote} Hi Steve, i want to try to answer your question with this pictures: The monthly is up, and is important where the price is right now and what is it behavior in this point can you see it? {image} The weekly is DOWN because we have LH and LL use the fractal b williams to see much better {image} and then the daily was in a downtrend (we should take the last two picks) but this is broken and now we have a demand zone (not that great by his formation but...) that cost the broke of trendline, it is 2:1 so we can try to buy in this zone ( the zone...
Just one thing on the MN chart Alessandro. You don't see 2 valleys there, but price is over-extended and 3 CP areas of demand, so we can draw an aggressive ascending TL as per your charts, now TL is broken so Monthly's upward momentum is lost and we could have a bigger retracement.

See attachment!
Cheers,
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 87 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,673
  • Aug 27, 2014 6:53pm Aug 27, 2014 6:53pm
I'm eyeing longs on USDCAD:

Monthly is up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-08-27 21_33_29-9429615_ OANDA - MetaTrader - Demo Account - [USDCAD,Monthly].png Size: 95 KB


Weekly downtrend broken, should I ignore the CP at the base of the demand area that broke the trend? I would assume that and go long within the trendbreaker zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-08-27 21_34_37-9429615_ OANDA - MetaTrader - Demo Account - [USDCAD,Weekly].png Size: 102 KB


Uptrend broken, price dropping towards the zones I want to trade. I am not interested in trading the first tiny CP that it's about to hit (lower odds right?) so if I would trade the Weekly CP I would take the next zone below or the next one (weekly BDR). Am I right to have to wait for confirmation? Or is it a set-and-forget because of the weekly zone? My guess is wait for confirmation because the Daily uptrend is broken, no longs allowed. Am I correct to think that here?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-08-27 21_35_49-9429615_ OANDA - MetaTrader - Demo Account - [USDCAD,Daily].png Size: 113 KB
  • #4,674
  • Aug 27, 2014 9:03pm Aug 27, 2014 9:03pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Your analysis on confirmartion for longs makes sense, Eurjpy is in a tricky situation now on the WK and the D1, we need some direction in order to trade swing and position. Lower is great to try longs, in the meantime I am waiting for some direction. Thanks for sharing your view on EURJPY. Alfonso
Sure thing, thanks very much for the feedback.

-Steve
  • #4,675
  • Edited Aug 28, 2014 12:18am Aug 27, 2014 11:36pm | Edited Aug 28, 2014 12:18am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Just one thing on the MN chart Alessandro. You don't see 2 valleys there, but price is over-extended and 3 CP areas of demand, so we can draw an aggressive ascending TL as per your charts, now TL is broken so Monthly's upward momentum is lost and we could have a bigger retracement. See attachment! Cheers, Alfonso {image}
Hi Alfonso, yes, i agree with your post, i' had think on the monthly situation this night, and then i realized the mistake on the monthly.
What about the daily trendline?
  • #4,676
  • Aug 28, 2014 12:34am Aug 28, 2014 12:34am
Quoting alegargano
{quote} Hi Alfonso, yes, i agree with your post, i' had think on the monthly situation this night, and then i realized the mistake on the monthly. What about the daily trendline?
You are welcome! I looked at your D1 chart and I see you didn't connect the latest 2 peaks. The descending D1 TL would have been broken before the break you drew. I see a lot of trading in the area, it's too wicky to try longs, and both MN and WK lost upward momentum. Doing nothing in this pair for now, need to see volatility and clear entries with great imbalance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 47 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,677
  • Aug 30, 2014 5:51am Aug 30, 2014 5:51am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Just one thing on the MN chart Alessandro. You don't see 2 valleys there, but price is over-extended and 3 CP areas of demand, so we can draw an aggressive ascending TL as per your charts, now TL is broken so Monthly's upward momentum is lost and we could have a bigger retracement. See attachment! Cheers, Alfonso {image}
According to the rules, we should be able do draw a down trend line on monthly EJ. There are 2 obvious peaks and price made a LL on the second leg.
Attached Image
  • #4,678
  • Aug 30, 2014 6:48am Aug 30, 2014 6:48am
XAUUSD TOP DOWN ANALYSIS

Monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDproMonthly.png Size: 64 KB

Monthly is down

Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDproWeekly.png Size: 74 KB

Weekly is down and make 2 peaks Lower High

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDproDaily.png Size: 73 KB

Daily is down with 2 peaks and lower low, price still on 44% so next week I'll try to find good pullback on H1/H4 to SHORT with the target on demand @1247 - 1240. any comment..? I'm waiting your comment pleaseee....

Regards,
Sonigl
  • #4,679
  • Aug 30, 2014 12:13pm Aug 30, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting sonigl
XAUUSD TOP DOWN ANALYSIS Monthly {image} Monthly is down Weekly {image} Weekly is down and make 2 peaks Lower High Daily {image} Daily is down with 2 peaks and lower low, price still on 44% so next week I'll try to find good pullback on H1/H4 to SHORT with the target on demand @1247 - 1240. any comment..? I'm waiting your comment pleaseee.... Regards, Sonigl
Here are my comments on your charts, please reevaluate your view on this pair.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-08-30 10_23_44-attachment.php (1276×646).png Size: 74 KB


So we can conclude that we are no longer in a downtrend, longs are allowed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-08-30 14_58_40-attachment.php (1276×646).png Size: 93 KB


On the weekly we can draw an uptrend, so again, time for longs.

Daily chart is definitely down, so I'd wait for it to realign with a HTF zone and go long.

Please feel free to scrutinize my analysis, I'm still learning
  • #4,680
  • Aug 31, 2014 6:22am Aug 31, 2014 6:22am
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