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The Coin-Flip Theory

  • #361
  • Aug 26, 2014 10:01pm Aug 26, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting victor_ray
{quote} Well why don't you just "play a small balance within a big balance..." as long as you use sl and % risk right... it should have zero effect on your big balance... I am risking only 100$ within a "big balance"...... That's why I had to record the "coin flip trade" in excel.. so that way I can keep track of the small balance...
to be honest my current trading account is all over the place with 10+ trades running at the same time sometimes. it will just get too messy! i want a clean separate account for it.
  • #362
  • Aug 26, 2014 11:53pm Aug 26, 2014 11:53pm
Day 19: August 27, 2014
Result: 17.98%

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-27-2014 - Closed Trade.png Size: 10 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Look like my TP hit early... lucky 17.98% gain. No trend no matter...
  • #363
  • Aug 27, 2014 1:58pm Aug 27, 2014 1:58pm
Quoting victor_ray
This is "MY money management" plan to get 1 million$ in year. {image} Obviously it work with any system, as long as YOUR system have a true 66.67% win rate with the exact sl and tp in the chart... you are rich period. I hope you like the big chart you can seem them spike... Obviously, I will not discuss any further about how or what I do to achieve the win rate on a "big balance". I guess in the majority people eyes, it's a just a big gamble.. I don't know about you but... I would gamble 3000$ if I know I can get 1 million$.... It's not a bad risk......
Dear Victor_ray
Thank you for your contribution. It is always very interesting. I love to see it everyday.

Do you know an EA which you can define SL, TP, 5% risk and Leverage?
  • #364
  • Aug 27, 2014 6:42pm Aug 27, 2014 6:42pm
Do not worry about: leverage because "5% risk lot size will be within 1:50 leverage"...
It is not necessary for any system/ea to calculate leverage... (because of the 5%..is too small)

No, I do not know any EA that "define SL, TP, 5% risk"
But you can alway "manually MODIFY any EA code" to use the money management...
The code is actually not hard... if you have "basic C+ knowledge"......

Ofcourse if you don't know the basic C+ programing knowledge then it's incredible/impossible for you.

If you just use the Excel sheet I posted... previous post back.... or create your own..excel lot size/risk calculator... it is more easier..
  • #365
  • Aug 27, 2014 10:15pm Aug 27, 2014 10:15pm
Day 20: August 28, 2014
Bet Loaded

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-28-2014 - Entry.png Size: 67 KB
  • #366
  • Aug 28, 2014 8:05am Aug 28, 2014 8:05am
Quoting yczzd
{quote} Here you are. {file} {quote} Lots of orders can be automatically calculated based on the account equity。 {quote} Stops are determined based on the parameters HardSL and yesterday's high and low。
Thanks yczzd
Your CoinVlip EA V21 is working fine.

Nevertheless, is it possible to program a Take Profit? And if not filled than the closing rule as you have discribed should take place.

Thant would be sooo great!
Anyway, thank you
  • #367
  • Aug 28, 2014 4:56pm Aug 28, 2014 4:56pm
Quote
Nevertheless, is it possible to program a Take Profit? And if not filled than the closing rule as you have discribed should take place

It's already been done. The ea is up to ea v261 - also includes ATR sl/tp as options.

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/php...php?f=5&t=3765
  • #368
  • Aug 28, 2014 10:54pm Aug 28, 2014 10:54pm
Day 20: August 28, 2014
Result: 15.03%

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-28-2014 - Closed Trade.png Size: 10 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-28-2014 - Log.png Size: 79 KB



Day 21: August 29, 2014
Bet Loaded

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-29-2014 - Entry.png Size: 68 KB
  • #369
  • Aug 29, 2014 5:20am Aug 29, 2014 5:20am
Day 21: August 29, 2014
Result: 15.17%

Was lucky... this time tp was just perfect. After that market reverse lol.................
Non the less ... 4 day streak win is good...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-29-2014 - Closed Trade.png Size: 10 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-29-2014 - Log.png Size: 92 KB
  • #370
  • Aug 30, 2014 6:09am Aug 30, 2014 6:09am
Quoting victor_ray
Day 21: August 29, 2014 Result: 15.17% Was lucky... this time tp was just perfect. After that market reverse lol................. Non the less ... 4 day streak win is good... {image} {image}
Hi victor Ray, are you testing based on the parameters set out by the original thread poster?
  • #371
  • Aug 30, 2014 7:49am Aug 30, 2014 7:49am
No, the first week was the result (day 1-6) from the original thread poster parameter.

I saw the problem... which is "volatility is low" it's much better if you just scalp....


So from day 7 and up I , still enter at my usual candle 5:00 hr and set sl below/above 1x Murrey math line.
The random is still there because "i am force to enter at 5:00 candle whether I like it or not..."
  • #372
  • Sep 5, 2014 8:38pm Sep 5, 2014 8:38pm
I wonder if someone traded this this week. Could've made alot of money with the recent moves.
  • #373
  • Sep 7, 2014 6:29pm Sep 7, 2014 6:29pm
Where has our friend Victor Ray gone???
  • #374
  • Sep 7, 2014 10:07pm Sep 7, 2014 10:07pm
Day 22: September 28, 2014
Bet Loaded

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-08-2014 - Entry.png Size: 69 KB


---------
I have been so busy working late hours at my job......
When I went home late I usually fall asleep...without eating...dinner..

Result I have been missing all my 5:00 hour candle...the whole week.

But none the less, I will still stop posting after 1 month of data so you guy are on your own...
  • #375
  • Sep 8, 2014 1:19pm Sep 8, 2014 1:19pm
Dear Victor ray

Does it mean you quit this strategy?
Or will you update at the end of the month your results?
I appreciate your input very much. Anyway thank you soo much.
Wish you all the best
kofix11
  • #376
  • Sep 8, 2014 2:36pm Sep 8, 2014 2:36pm
unfortunately

this is in fact a coin-flip test, what's a coin-flip? it is 50% vs 50%, and what's more, it is not free to play this game!

and the outcome is quite obvious (mentioned my last post in this thread): it will not make money! no need to wait for victor's 1-month test......

people should not waste time and energy here, but people will, (like me doing now......)

no hard feeling, everyone who reaches his target have to experiences this kind of traps.

Quoting kofix11
Dear Victor ray Does it mean you quit this strategy? Or will you update at the end of the month your results? I appreciate your input very much. Anyway thank you soo much. Wish you all the best kofix11
  • #377
  • Edited 7:25pm Sep 8, 2014 7:11pm | Edited 7:25pm
Quoting kofix11
Dear Victor ray Does it mean you quit this strategy? Or will you update at the end of the month your results? I appreciate your input very much. Anyway thank you soo much. Wish you all the best kofix11
It mean I quit posting my result.... forever.

The whole point of all of this is if you play % compound money management... you shouldn't blow the balance.

But you STILL NEED a GOOD random win ratio for you to be rich. When will that happen? I don't know it depend on other people entry system.

What I have provide you all is a live proof of % compound will not blow even if you risk as high as 15% daily and SL method using math murrey system (exit).

After that it's all base on your "luck/your system ENTRY" to make you win...

Do not think that you can't win if you believe in luck...
If you really keep playing eventually you will get 25,000$ or even 80,000$ in 2-5 year with a 100$ investment...

But I recommend people should be smart... and start with 1,000$ or 2,5000$ so that way you ... are more likely to get 100,000$/300,000 in 3-5 year...

------------

As for charvo,

Some people do not understand that you only lose if you stop.....

Example:

Scenario 1: You win 10 trade you lose 10 trade.... = you (break even ..and lose spread). Are you happy with that? YES, you are happy? then.. you lose money.

Scenario 2: You win 5 trade and lose 15 trade = you lose.. ARE you HAPPY with that? NO? Then play 20 more trade.... ( it MIGHT turn out to be 15 win 25 lose)

Secnario 3: You Win 15 and lose 25 trade. Are you Happy with that? NO because you losing... Then play 100 MORE trade... You WILL change your result...



The whole point is: Unless you quit, other wise you can keep playing until you win... period..........
Majority people don't get that your win loss ratio is dynamic... If you don't stop... you CAN change loss to a win... provided you still have money to play..
Which is exactly why we use % lot size... so you should have LOT of chances to keep betting for 100 trades...

But if you just really unlucky, losing 80 trade in a row, then I am sorry forex is NOT for you because you were born with Destiny To become homeless and you should go get an education and get a high paying job (all though I am sure you still get bad luck not getting a job because you can't Fight Destiny. But at least education is worth a try ).....
  • #378
  • Sep 8, 2014 10:41pm Sep 8, 2014 10:41pm
Day 22: September 08, 2014
Result: -15.33%

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-08-2014 - Closed Trade.png Size: 10 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-08-2014 - Log.png Size: 103 KB


Day 23: September 09 , 2014
Bet Loaded

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-09-2014 - Entry.png Size: 65 KB
  • #379
  • Sep 8, 2014 11:02pm Sep 8, 2014 11:02pm
Hi Victor_Ray
just wanted to say thanks for all your updated reports
I'm sure many will find it most helpful and informative
  • #380
  • Sep 9, 2014 7:07am Sep 9, 2014 7:07am
Victor, i admire your passion and persistence on this method. It is the spirit that bring us to final destination.

no disrespect from me at all

i understand that mathematically, it will not wipe out since it is a % betting. but in long term, due to trading cost and almost 50% 50%, the equity curve would be a typical asymptote (approaching to zero, but never reaching zero)

what's more, there's an underlying point that we often ignore in trading: time

let's say after 3 months, you run into a sequence of 10 losses (very easy for this current method), and equity reduce to what level? it doesn't matter actually. what matters is you lose 3 months!

learning a correct method for 3 months, you might be already profitable. this capital of "time" might be more important than money.

in fact, i haven't so far seen any proof thru this thread that this method is not a random 50% vs 50% thing. how can we expect to make money this way? is the market really this easy? man, to win in this battle, it takes blood and tears instead of a smart finding of a method like this.

my comments may be purely redundant since it simply helps no one among this thread's followers. i only posted because i've been there wasted and i hope the others skip it.

Quoting victor_ray
{quote} Majority people don't get that your win loss ratio is dynamic... If you don't stop... you CAN change loss to a win... provided you still have money to play.. Which is exactly why we use % lot size... so you should have LOT of chances to keep betting for 100 trades... But if you just really unlucky, losing 80 trade in a row, then I am sorry forex is NOT for you because you were born with Destiny To become homeless and you should go get an education and get a high paying job (all though I am sure you still get bad luck not getting a job because...
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