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  • #4,561
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:57pm Aug 22, 2014 1:57pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} JY kinda whiffed. But Draghi up to bat next, see him warming up over there with the big wood?.....
Well, no fireworks. Looks like SnP 2k will have to wait. Next week there's US GDP, then NFP the week after. Draghi will go home and start banging on the side of the ECB with a big rubber mallet. I'll be watching the EUR/USD this Fall.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,562
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:21pm Aug 22, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Well, no fireworks. Looks like SnP 2k will have to wait. Next week there's US GDP, then NFP the week after. Draghi will go home and start banging on the side of the ECB with a big rubber mallet. I'll be watching the EUR/USD this Fall.
Yup, hopefully some fireworks from those data point......or as you say TF, someone hits the reset button aka.....W.A.R!

Have a good weekend all....
  • #4,563
  • Edited 3:03pm Aug 22, 2014 2:31pm | Edited 3:03pm
Have a good one, njr. Interesting times ahead, I am sure

I did the following call spread on SPY today. $0.02 debit. I don't think the SnP will go near 2,050 by 9/12, and it won't go near 2,100 by 10/18 - but I bet it will be drifting up. If $205 holds by 9/12, subsequent short legs will make money, or the 10/18 $210 outright....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,564
  • Edited 6:01pm Aug 22, 2014 5:44pm | Edited 6:01pm
UST's up when the market's up, up when the market's down. TLT maybe one to just buy calls on a dip. But I may try to cheat my way into cheap calls next week....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,565
  • Aug 22, 2014 7:54pm Aug 22, 2014 7:54pm
Quoting StrayDog
Hey Cecil, check out what was the biggest option trade yesterday, a call butterfly on YHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/blog...134038805.html from text: 1. YHOO - Bullish trade in YHOO printed in the morning – buyer of 21,500 x 43,000 x 21,500 of the Oct 40/43/46 call butterfly to open for $0.38. More of that butterfly traded later in the session. YHOO remains near its highest level since mid-March, though the $40 level is important resistance that has not been touched since March 5th....
had a look at it and is bullish, my system would have got me in at $36, like to see if it hits or even gets close to 42$
  • #4,566
  • Aug 23, 2014 12:39pm Aug 23, 2014 12:39pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-re...152152609.html
"The debate is real."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,567
  • Edited 1:11pm Aug 23, 2014 12:54pm | Edited 1:11pm
https://screen.yahoo.com/insight-bra...070831223.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz...rtner=yahootix

The em etf's might get hurt by the rumor of tightening in th US. EWZ has room to fall back to the mid $40.00's this Fall.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,568
  • Aug 23, 2014 1:19pm Aug 23, 2014 1:19pm
Quoting The Fool
The em etf's might get hurt by the rumor of tightening in th US. EWZ has room to fall back to the mid $40.00's this Fall. {image}
Maybe....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,569
  • Edited 3:15pm Aug 23, 2014 1:35pm | Edited 3:15pm
So, dough will do the POP calc on a named strategy, but will not on a "custom set-up"....?....and the diagonals are not included in the strategy menu....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,570
  • Aug 23, 2014 1:46pm Aug 23, 2014 1:46pm
EEM is weighted to Asian equities, may hold up better than the BRIC's in rising rate rumor times.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,571
  • Aug 23, 2014 1:53pm Aug 23, 2014 1:53pm
Quoting The Fool
EEM is weighted to Asian equities, may hold up better than the BRIC's in rising rate rumor times. {image}
...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,572
  • Aug 23, 2014 10:11pm Aug 23, 2014 10:11pm
Today's Quiz: (on GLD)

1) What is the following trade setup called?
2) How will you have to manage the trade a) if GLD ranges between the long strikes and b) if GLD moves hard past one of the long strikes before 9/12...?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,573
  • Aug 24, 2014 12:59am Aug 24, 2014 12:59am
http://www.simpleroptions.com/public...dd9e072ec078f1

JC is a good trader, I like his TA approach. Does anybody know if there is a Put/Call Volume and/or Put/Call ratio indicator on ToS - like what he shows on Tradestation?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,574
  • Aug 24, 2014 8:26pm Aug 24, 2014 8:26pm
Jackson Hole is over and the EUR/USD has started its slide, printing $1.319x now on its way to $1.25xx and lower....by year-end. How cheap does the euro need to be to jumpstart the flatlining eurozone economy? Hey, I don't know, but I guarantee you the wonks at the ECB and the Fed have an opinion....lower. That's where we're going.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,575
  • Aug 24, 2014 10:49pm Aug 24, 2014 10:49pm
Quoting The Fool
UST's up when the market's up, up when the market's down. TLT maybe one to just buy calls on a dip. But I may try to cheat my way into cheap calls next week.... {image}
we'll see...the equity/UST positive correlation can not last forever...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,576
  • Aug 24, 2014 11:32pm Aug 24, 2014 11:32pm
It likes its channel, anyway. Any hard move through the 2sd line (typ Bolli bands 20,2) can be sold for a $2 pullback. Volume is good and spreads are tight, especially on the monthlies. Good news for TLT options traders if its iv is ramping up. But I couldn't tell you where it'll be in 3 months. I just think the long bonds should diverge from US equities, up or down, we'll see.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,577
  • Aug 24, 2014 11:50pm Aug 24, 2014 11:50pm
I am looking at the $15 move down on GLD (~a $150 move in gold) over 6 weeks from last November-December and I think we can see that again, or better. I would not be surprised to see gold shoot for $1,100 and lower before Xmas. Supposedly we are entering the peak harvest festival/wedding season in Asia and gold demand should ramp up. Maybe so, maybe gold will flatline $1,250-$1,300 for another month or so. Timing is everything.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,578
  • Aug 25, 2014 12:03am Aug 25, 2014 12:03am
Quoting The Fool
I am looking at the $15 move down on GLD (~a $150 move in gold) over 6 weeks from last November-December and I think we can see that again, or better. I would not be surprised to see gold shoot for $1,100 and lower before Xmas. Supposedly we are entering the peak harvest festival/wedding season in Asia and gold demand should ramp up. Maybe so, maybe gold will flatline $1,250-$1,300 for another month or so. Timing is everything. {image}
Maybe she flatlines or holds above $115 through 10/18, ergo the debit spread, leaves me open to gains from further drops in November....or,...maybe I wait for a bounce back to $1,300 and leg in to Nov puts...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,579
  • Aug 25, 2014 2:34am Aug 25, 2014 2:34am
Futures say a 8-10 pt gap up on the open for S&P, gonna give up da 2k booty. QE everywhere, forever, I should just go with the flow, buy some SSO atm calls....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,580
  • Aug 25, 2014 7:17am Aug 25, 2014 7:17am
Quoting The Fool
I am looking at the $15 move down on GLD (~a $150 move in gold) over 6 weeks from last November-December and I think we can see that again, or better. I would not be surprised to see gold shoot for $1,100 and lower before Xmas. Supposedly we are entering the peak harvest festival/wedding season in Asia and gold demand should ramp up. Maybe so, maybe gold will flatline $1,250-$1,300 for another month or so. Timing is everything. {image}
looking for a sharp fall this week on Gold
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