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Jackson Hole and open positions

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 22, 2014 6:09am Aug 22, 2014 6:09am
Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda.

Dollar, Euro, Yen.

Positive, Negative? who knows? a select few only I guess.

Why do people hold positions going into events like this. for the gamble?

Euro fundamentals are terrible in my opinion, but looking at COT data, Large Spec traders who wanted to short are/have. Who knows, maybe Draghi could change the tide.
-might put a small speculative position long EURAUD or EURNZD.
  • #2
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:05pm Aug 22, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting BubaYaga
Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda. Dollar, Euro, Yen. Positive, Negative? who knows? a select few only I guess. Why do people hold positions going into events like this. for the gamble? Euro fundamentals are terrible in my opinion, but looking at COT data, Large Spec traders who wanted to short are/have. Who knows, maybe Draghi could change the tide. -might put a small speculative position long EURAUD or EURNZD.
Because we have charts.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #3
  • Aug 22, 2014 6:45pm Aug 22, 2014 6:45pm
Quoting BubaYaga
.... but looking at COT data, Large Spec traders who wanted to short are/have....
Currently only 75% of large specs are short, there is still plenty of room to fall imo. I wouldn't dream of taking a long trade on that basis until short positioning went above 90%. Even then the figure can hang in the 90's for a long time without reversing the trend - look at the Yen's history in the past year.
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si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #4
  • Aug 22, 2014 7:17pm Aug 22, 2014 7:17pm
One of the most interesting things about Jackson Hole to me, is Yellen's comment linking rate hikes to inflation. To date almost all the talk about ending QE and raising interest rates has revolved around the unemployment rate - so USD strengthens as unemployment falls. If the unemployment rate looks like flattening out now, inflation data could become a more important driver of USD based trends.
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si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #5
  • Aug 25, 2014 5:03am Aug 25, 2014 5:03am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Because we have charts.
98.6% of Forex Factory threads are dedicated to TA. and all the fundamentals are expressed in the price action. and price action is a perfect representation of future events. congrats.
  • #6
  • Last Post: Aug 25, 2014 5:58am Aug 25, 2014 5:58am
Quoting numbnuts
One of the most interesting things about Jackson Hole to me, is Yellen's comment linking rate hikes to inflation. To date almost all the talk about ending QE and raising interest rates has revolved around the unemployment rate - so USD strengthens as unemployment falls. If the unemployment rate looks like flattening out now, inflation data could become a more important driver of USD based trends. {image}
what they fear most is deflation so I can't see any rate hike until unemployment figures lower. Prove me wrong Yellen, I love to see anything to the contrary.
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