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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #15,861
  • Aug 21, 2014 1:41am Aug 21, 2014 1:41am
Now it starts to get interesting for Gold
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  • #15,862
  • Aug 21, 2014 1:47am Aug 21, 2014 1:47am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} 3248? Hmmm, why so fib-fixated? 3234 I have a high volume zone, which attracts. But chances then are very good, that price tries the following no-business-zone out @ 3183.
I learned from you and Schick!
Lost....
  • #15,863
  • Aug 21, 2014 1:51am Aug 21, 2014 1:51am
EU

alternative EW count

well, when this count comes true, and we would stop right here with the wave 3, it would suck for the bears. Because wave 3 would only be around 94% of A. That would mean, that the following wave 5 would have to be even shorter.

Anyway - right now at channel support
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  • #15,864
  • Aug 21, 2014 3:11am Aug 21, 2014 3:11am
Quoting janpec1000
GU long trade, SL will be manually done by PA development, aprox 15-25 pip SL from entry. Reason for entry is good bottoming structure, m15 fbo, firm solid push of buyers on structure test, landed in daily demand zone, near its core, dollar testing its strongest high in near area for possible bounce down. http://prntscr.com/4eqo9j

Still holding onto trade (40 pips DD peak) after substential USDCHF retracement. Still planning to meet at least BE or profits.

Gold went precisely as planned 2 weeks ago, posted picture on daily swing some pages ago, aswell as i mentioned weekly swing will most likely not be bullish one, but it will fail and tank, which it did:
http://prntscr.com/4excb8

Meanwhile expecting some dollar downgoing in next day.
  • #15,865
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:48am Aug 22, 2014 2:48am
Good morning friends


EU 4h TF EW analysis

my main count - seems, that I am the only Elliottican with this count

Note: maybe, the last wave 1 is not finished yet. There is another variant, where we are in subwave 4 of this wave 1 impulse

see this count: scroll to the 1h chart http://www.fxservice.com/analytics/w...22-august-2014

if that count is true, we would nicely match the no business zone around 3184 (+/- 9 pips)
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  • #15,866
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:51am Aug 22, 2014 2:51am
Horvat on EU

EW count

http://www.ew-forecast.com/newslette..._lows-what_now
  • #15,867
  • Aug 22, 2014 11:14am Aug 22, 2014 11:14am
Quoting infinitus
Now it starts to get interesting for Gold {image}
My target is 1261 at minimum, possibly deeper to or bellow 1250.
  • #15,868
  • Aug 22, 2014 11:20am Aug 22, 2014 11:20am
Hi!

In my experience, these m1 structures usually gives support for the market...and when it's synchronized within more Eur-pair, than it's even stronger...

Will see, all the best for you!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.08.22. EurCad EurUsd M1.png Size: 32 KB
f(z)=z2+c
  • #15,869
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:28pm Aug 22, 2014 1:28pm
Market Daily Briefing
The World in Context - Charts Updated Daily

http://mdbriefing.com/index.shtml

excellent link
  • #15,870
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:57pm Aug 22, 2014 1:57pm
since this mornings high @ 3297 there might be an ending diagonal developing

Opinion anyone?
  • #15,871
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:20pm Aug 22, 2014 2:20pm
Quoting hathor
Hi! In my experience, these m1 structures usually gives support for the market...and when it's synchronized within more Eur-pair, than it's even stronger... Will see, all the best for you! {image}
Agree, good setup to enter with Sl bellow any nearby area lows.
  • #15,872
  • Aug 23, 2014 11:54am Aug 23, 2014 11:54am
Aud

Attached Image
  • #15,873
  • Aug 23, 2014 1:19pm Aug 23, 2014 1:19pm
Quoting Grigoriy
Aud {image}
abc could also be a SHS formation,...if so the market price could going up.
I don't know.
FXcube
  • #15,874
  • Aug 23, 2014 1:23pm Aug 23, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting infinitus
since this mornings high @ 3297 there might be an ending diagonal developing Opinion anyone?
I think the monthly candles could go further downside till 1.3150 or so.
It seems not long enough for shaping a body or a (longer) shadow.
FXcube
  • #15,875
  • Edited 11:16pm Aug 23, 2014 11:01pm | Edited 11:16pm
Quoting infinitus
since this mornings high @ 3297 there might be an ending diagonal developing Opinion anyone?
I think further downside for EU.. There is high buying on USD within 3 last trading days.
  • #15,876
  • Aug 24, 2014 5:03am Aug 24, 2014 5:03am
Looks like we might have some easy GBP shorts in 1 month:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ent-citi-warns


He says it all:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ut-through-war
  • #15,877
  • Aug 24, 2014 2:03pm Aug 24, 2014 2:03pm
Hello to my favourite thread!

3 charts containing different informations:

1st: shows 4 different fibonaccis,
- where three out of four fibo's cross is at 1.34500-800 /and at 2014.08.31-09.01 /

2nd: shows the two main fibonaccis and their common levels,
- 1st at ~ 1.34000 (double)
- 2nd at ~ 1.34500 (solitaire)
- 3rd at ~ 1.35100-300 (double)
- 4th at ~ 1.36000
- 5th at ~ 1.37000

3rd: shows important horizontal lines (mainly - bull trend's - daily candle's open or low prices),
- the lovely 1.35800
- ~ 1.34100-400 (if they want to kill shorts, than it's a must to crack)
- ~ 1.34800
- ~ 1.35300
- ~ 1.36000
...and so on.


Because the market is heavily oversold, we're (maybe - because it's not finished yet) building a turning point for a decent stop-loss hunt...
And if there will be any decent short stop-hunt, than it should crack at least ~ 1.34150, so the next main resistance is waiting for the bulls somewhere at 1.34500-800. There is a (not even small) chance to go higher than 1.35000, but the higher it goes, the better will be for short risk-reward. Of course geopolitical and central bank sh*t can always hit the fan, so watch out.

hathor
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f(z)=z2+c
  • #15,878
  • Aug 24, 2014 4:25pm Aug 24, 2014 4:25pm
Quoting infinitus
Good morning friends EU 4h TF EW analysis my main count - seems, that I am the only Elliottican with this count Note: maybe, the last wave 1 is not finished yet. There is another variant, where we are in subwave 4 of this wave 1 impulse see this count: scroll to the 1h chart http://www.fxservice.com/analytics/w...22-august-2014 if that count is true, we would nicely match the no business zone around 3184 (+/- 9 pips) {image}

so we touched the no-business-zone........

how can we play it?

either go long here with SL below of the no-business-zone,

or short the break of the no-business-zone
  • #15,879
  • Aug 24, 2014 4:33pm Aug 24, 2014 4:33pm
3184 magical area?

volume profile show, that on the long term distribution, 32 months (synchronized to Murrey Math) we have a POC of 3089, and an average volume weighted price of 3166 (both +/- 9 pips)
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  • #15,880
  • Aug 24, 2014 4:37pm Aug 24, 2014 4:37pm
from a probabilistic point of view we have now high risk for an upside attempt, since many TF's went into the -3 or -4 SD territory.

But keep in mind:


movements in such territory most of the time lead to even further progress. So we can bet here on mean reversion or partial mean reversion, but in the longer scheme the downside should prevail.
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