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Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

  • #161
  • Aug 22, 2014 11:08am Aug 22, 2014 11:08am
Quoting Luther
{quote} All spikes have different causes. Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly book balancing, Triple Witching, Quadruple Witching, news driven spikes like NFP or FOMC, the occasional fat finger, large carry trade offload, or news algo SNAFU can cause intraday spikes, but don't have longer term effects on the higher time frames. What typically causes the effect you're looking at is investor sentiment. Most trends end with investor exuberance which is what causes the burst up at the end. It's actually a signal that larger traders watch for and sell into. It's...
Even a politician farting can move the markets, thats not the point.The key is mostly the low liquidity, so should we watch out for bank holidays, low liquidity events like world cup or some sport championships, other holidays, or just simply because the price level dried out and we cant do nothing about it with LV1 quote info (atleast lv 2 needed for this).

Can we forcast this low liquidity or not, if we cant then probably at some point we will also be victims of this pump&dump phenomena, if we can then how?

Retailers could be any trader who manages his own money, obviously an institution has their trades planned out and would not jump into every single opportunity which arises.Only the average Joe who sits in front of his PC trying to make quick buck by trading this, gets excited, emotions, and such suck into this, regardless of his account size being 100€ or 1.000.000 €, because retailers come in all shapes and sizes, and lack of planning is a common attribute to most of them.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #162
  • Aug 22, 2014 12:28pm Aug 22, 2014 12:28pm
Also not all trends end with bubbles:

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This was a pretty good ending,with consolidation to follow.Usually trends end with consolidation so thats not a golden rule.The bubbles must be caused by something, it would be nice to see what makes those greedy traders get greedy at that point?

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Even the gold bubble which was really a bubble, didnt ended that harsh, if it would have acted like BITCOIN then it would have dropped back to like 500$

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This is what i call a true crash, after the bubble pops

There is also a fact that CB intervene to stabilize the crash if its important to that country's finance, thats why you didnt saw a huge gold crash after the 2008 crisis.

But mini bubbles could still exist which are just unobserved by CB, completely no basis what so ever, and trying to figure out what the hell makes those stupid traders trade so agressively into a bubble?

Its a great mistery anyway
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #163
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:09pm Aug 22, 2014 1:09pm
I'm trying to understand the trick behind this thread - it just doesn't make sense to me because SPECULATIVE TRADING IS A ZERO SUM GAME.

This 'share your system' sentiment prevales in much of FF and other trading websites.
Can so many people be this ignorant ? What am I missing ?

I'm glad that the 'sharing and cooperation' instinct is so ingrained in human nature that it shows up even here. However it does not change the cold-hard facts.

For a trading strategy to make money some other strategies need to lose money. This means that every trader who posted here and every trader who will read this anonymously is your adversary. They want to fuck you over for your money. They want to front run you if you're successful and fade you or fill you if you're a loser. They want you to get stopped out and for price to turn right after, to miss your fill by a tick, to keep holding your winners until they turn into losers, to keep holding your losers until your account margins out. They want your money.

It's possible that many people just aren't aware of how this game works. Maybe many people just don't give a flying f* and keep focused on their own account. Nevertheless, that's how the game DOES WORK.

Imagine we are sitting at a poker table and you seriously ask, ever so politely to mute your excitement:

"OMG, Fellas!!!

Here is an idea: how about we all work together - then we all gonna win.

Let's see each other's cards and explain our strategies to each other.

You tell me how I can tell your tell and I tell you how you can tell my tell.

WOW, AND LET'S AIM REEEEL HIGH, like a 1000% / month !

SO if we ever fail by some slim chance, it's still ok, we'll just make 20% / week.

Peachy keen."


You realize how ludicrous that sounds.

Having said that, just like poker players can hang out and talk about their game - in our game some discussion topics are somewhat safe: academic circlejerking, technology, opinions, risk management, brokers, instruments, talking your book after you're already in a position, politics and abortion, boasting, jokes, etc, whatever, anyways

Cooperation is a wonderful principle in life in general. Just not in this specific game.
Good luck.

and by 'good luck' i mean i look forward to raping you in the market. i'll buy you a drink after
  • #164
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:47pm Aug 22, 2014 2:47pm
its the banks we want to F**k over, not each other
i agree in the rest of what you say though,
but nothing wrong with working as a team, just not on FF or the other popular trading forums
  • #165
  • Aug 22, 2014 3:10pm Aug 22, 2014 3:10pm
Quoting corrugatedit
Can so many people be this ignorant ?
Its you who is the ignorant, do you realize that only about 1% of the markets or less is made of retail traders money? The rest is bank money,fund money or private corporation money.

There is a 99% chance that on the other side of your trade you will find a T1 bank (after your order is routed trough your broker and a T2 liquidity provider of course) rather than an average retailer...

So no matter what kind of strategies you use, it doesnt matter, banks dont care, they already do make money and its fine.If retail does or doesnt make money, its not a big deal, and institutionals dont care about us.A hundred years ago there were no retail traders, or atleast not in this form as its now, and there was still a market.The failure or succes of retailers is only a speck of dust in the grand scheme.

Also even if we find here the best holy grail here, i dont think 100% of the retail traders will read this thread, i dont know FF how many retail traders does it have but i think there are many more retailers troughout the internet, some of them not even members of any forum.

Also the "zero sum game" is also invalid,its a fallacy, i could talk about that, and prove that the FX is in fact not a zero sum game, but thats a whole other topic, and dont want to bore you...But dont compare the market with a poker game because one is an open system where money can flow in from external places while the other is just a closed gambling session which is indeed a zero sum game,and thats right the poker game is the zero sum while the market is not
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #166
  • Aug 22, 2014 3:28pm Aug 22, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote}If retail does or doesnt make money, its not a big deal, and institutionals dont care about us.A hundred years ago there were no retail traders, or atleast not in this form as its now, and there was still a market.The failure or succes of retailers is only a speck of dust in the grand scheme.
Retail doesn't matter because retail is not profitable.

The moment a retail trader has ANY sort of real edge, he will quickly reach multi-millionare status.

Here is a quote from a Credit Suisse report on HFT quoting the head of an HFT firm. You can see that the HFT firms complains that it's win-rate decreased from 54% to 53-52%, but it is still enough. That HFT head also says that having a 58% win-rate will quickly catapult one to billionaire status.

But this is REAL EDGE. And REAL 58% win rate, not martingale strategies that blow up.

So all the retailers looking for 80% WR strategies are ridiculous. Those don't exist (who don't blow up).

You only need 52-55% edge to get rich.

And before you complain that this is HFT, that person also states that it's average trade duration is 10 minutes. Not miliseconds, not seconds, 10 full minutes for your average trade.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...t_win_rate.png
  • #167
  • Aug 22, 2014 4:40pm Aug 22, 2014 4:40pm
Here is my 1,100% return on my a new found strats.. also a low deposit 1,000euro high risk managment...
Max drawdown was 18%

08aug-22aug.
About 30 Trades
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Probably the worlds best currency trader.
  • #168
  • Edited 6:01pm Aug 22, 2014 4:59pm | Edited 6:01pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} the "zero sum game" is also invalid,its a fallacy
Like Adal said it doesn't take much of an edge to get rich. The problem with any edge quickly becomes finding losers who will take the other side of your trade - the markets are very shallow.

For an extreme example Rentec has to cap their size because ALL THE MARKETS aren't deep enough to support their strategies.

So you are very correct in that some edges only work on small scale or illiquid markets and are not worth pursuit by bigger funds and thus are perfect for retail traders. However by this very definition these are mediocre edges that quickly reach their limits.

Also you misestimate the audience of your posts. To illustrate: my friend runs nightly cron scrapes of ff and other sites looking for interesting keywords, grammar patterns, images, links, what have you, - and if a sensible idea comes up and passes his tests he uses it. But you don't get anything for it - it became public information when you posted it - you didn't even know that my friend existed. Possibly you just flippantly mumbled some idea without ever using it or knowing what you have, and my friend actually does test it and runs with it. And it's not necessarily about you or anyone specifically - the people who publish their ideas are just tools (to put it nicely) - they don't get any benefit from their posts.

Not that ideas are hard to come by. Back to the Rentec example - Simons himself sponsors the very useful arxiv.org where naive academics post their own preliminary research.

anyways,
Good Luck

edit: (besides arxiv.org, let me bestow upon you another gift, another keyword, namely, 'market impact', thusly thoust miteth enjoyeth thoustselfs further)
  • #169
  • Aug 22, 2014 7:12pm Aug 22, 2014 7:12pm
In any case, anyone looking at or even trying to analyse the holy grail is not going to make head or tail of it. There is a complex logic to it. I cannot comment on other methods as I am not qualified to but as I said in another thread on scalping, the human brain is a pretty nifty machine and I am sure that there are many who see the market in a variety of very profitable ways and long may that last.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #170
  • Aug 22, 2014 8:57pm Aug 22, 2014 8:57pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yeah it measures the velocity actually if i think about it, the speed of price change/nr of bars, although its a very crude method because TL being drawn very subjectively.I`m sure your velocity indicator measures it more correctly, given that it looks at tick data, because if its not then its also smoothed by the bars. As the timeframe itself is a smoothing factor, that 73 angle on the M15 chart is only 30 on the M1, so the bars themselves smooth, and in this case distort the measurement, your indicator is objective, and if it looks at...
If You want to size Velocity and Accelaration You can use CCI. After You found out what Period in what Timeframe . Its much more sensitive than RSI and shows early extremes with their following divergence and than the reversal.
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  • #171
  • Aug 22, 2014 9:08pm Aug 22, 2014 9:08pm
Quoting nese
{quote} If You want to size Velocity and Accelaration You can use CCI. After You found out what Period in what Timeframe . Its much more sensitive than RSI and shows early extremes with their following divergence and than the reversal. {image}
I once heard tell that some of the financial houses uses physicists and rocket scientists to measure these market forces. Wonder whether anyone has cobbled together an indicator based around these sorts of esoteric measurements?
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #172
  • Aug 22, 2014 9:25pm Aug 22, 2014 9:25pm
CCI = (Typical Price - 20-period SMA of TP) / (.015 x Mean Deviation) Typical Price (TP) = (High + Low + Close)/3 Constant = .015 There are four steps to calculating the Mean Deviation. First, subtract the most recent 20-period average of the typical price from each period's typical price. Second, take the absolute values of these numbers. Third, sum the absolute values. Fourth, divide by the total number of periods (20).
Ok nobody needs to be a Rocketbrainsurgeon to understand this but simple things can work too. As meassure for Velocity and Accelaration its good
and in Combination with other Indicators it works quiet well ... but no 1000%.
  • #173
  • Aug 22, 2014 9:35pm Aug 22, 2014 9:35pm
Quoting nese
CCI = (Typical Price - 20-period SMA of TP) / (.015 x Mean Deviation) Typical Price (TP) = (High + Low + Close)/3 Constant = .015 There are four steps to calculating the Mean Deviation. First, subtract the most recent 20-period average of the typical price from each period's typical price. Second, take the absolute values of these numbers. Third, sum the absolute values. Fourth, divide by the total number of periods (20). Ok nobody needs to be a Rocketbrainsurgeon to understand this but simple things can work too. As meassure for Velocity and Accelaration...
True. Just wondering, you know, as one often does.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #174
  • Aug 22, 2014 9:47pm Aug 22, 2014 9:47pm
Quoting traider
{quote} True. Just wondering, you know, as one often does.
Was just a Idea ..I think its more objective than trendline angle.
I personally read a lot about CCI based strats and also backtested a bit. Great tool but You need a Idea where the market is moving to. Thats the Problem as usual . thats the bullish modebacktest in 18 months.
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  • #175
  • Aug 22, 2014 10:14pm Aug 22, 2014 10:14pm
Yeah. A lot of these systems call for discretion but I guess if people are making money from them, there must be something to them.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #176
  • Aug 22, 2014 10:37pm Aug 22, 2014 10:37pm
Quoting traider
Yeah. A lot of these systems call for discretion but I guess if people are making money from them, there must be something to them.
All Oscillator strategies are working. You only need to adjust them . If it producing red its working just in the wrong way and also adjust to the pairs. USD / ZAR has other Parameters than USD CAD in kind of ATR etc.
And I have now THE 1000% Idea! 1000% are made every Day by Retailtrader..its just -1000%.
We go to Zulutrade and copy all Traders negative under the Top 100 with a pot. ROI > 400% p.a. and less than 30 weeks run time till they have a margin call or going to be inactive.
  • #177
  • Aug 23, 2014 2:02am Aug 23, 2014 2:02am
Quoting Adal
{quote} Retail doesn't matter because retail is not profitable. The moment a retail trader has ANY sort of real edge, he will quickly reach multi-millionare status. Here is a quote from a Credit Suisse report on HFT quoting the head of an HFT firm. You can see that the HFT firms complains that it's win-rate decreased from 54% to 53-52%, but it is still enough. That HFT head also says that having a 58% win-rate will quickly catapult one to billionaire status. But this is REAL EDGE. And REAL 58% win rate, not martingale strategies that blow up. So...
Yes for a HFT a 3% edge is really groundbreaking considering they trade like 1000 trades/second.However you also must think about scaling trades, usually the size of the edge is directly proportional to the longevity of the duration of the trade.For example 3 month open positions can easily achieve 95% winrate with normal risk, because the amount of money in some cases (if not compounded) would be the same.

A trade that makes 5000 pips in 3 months with 95% winrate is almost equivalent to a trade that makes 1 pips in 10 minute with 53% winrate.Also because you can hardly scale the LOT size in HFT, it becomes equivalent.If you could scale the LOT size, and not disrupt the micro market in the process (as other HFT's would hunt your bigger positions) theoretically you could very well turn 100$ into a billion in a week

But fortunately the HFT has some limitations and other HFT's quickly strengthen the competition so unless you got the lastest technology, arbitrage becomes almost impossible in this timescale.

Quoting corrugatedit
{quote} Like Adal said it doesn't take much of an edge to get rich. The problem with any edge quickly becomes finding losers who will take the other side of your trade - the markets are very shallow. For an extreme example Rentec has to cap their size because ALL THE MARKETS aren't deep enough to support their strategies. So you are very correct in that some edges only work on small scale or illiquid markets and are not worth pursuit by bigger funds and thus are perfect for retail traders. However by this very definition these are mediocre edges...
Yes i thought about people who silently read forums and when some info comes out they use it.But if not me, then somebody else would have said it, its not like i`m the only trader in the world who observes things.The market doesnt care about it, arbitrage opportunities become almost nonexistent, and the other edges are well known by the experienced.

The market is build up by its structure to not let anyone take too much money out of it, no matter how much he knows about it.Even if you have an edge, the uncertainties will still remain.

I know strategies which can make guarenteed profits on 3-12 month horizon trades, the drawback is that you need a big account, to endure the DD.This is already a filter which can filter out most of retails, as most of them dont have >50.000€ accounts, so even if they know the edge, they still cant trade it.

Dont worry the market has enough money for everybody it is far from a zero sum game, because money comes from all over the place....
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #178
  • Aug 23, 2014 2:22am Aug 23, 2014 2:22am
Quoting corrugatedit
{quote} Like Adal said it doesn't take much of an edge to get rich....
Citigroup , who own the biggest market share of the FX market 16.04% in 2014, has still a 83.96% uncertainty to deal with with all the information that he knows about the markets (orders,stops,TP, spread, pending orders,market impact,etc).

Then imagine an average retail trader with LV1 QUOTES (bid,ask,tick count) how much uncertainty he has ? With no edge its 100%

You see, the market doesnt let anybody take too much money out of it, because when they do, others will find out the same secret that he has and the profit gets shared.

Simply put, there is no strategy on the entire planet that is not known already by atleast a few people, so if anybody observes anything about the market, i`m sure there are already many people who know that.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #179
  • Aug 23, 2014 5:44am Aug 23, 2014 5:44am
Quoting Adal
{quote} Retail doesn't matter because retail is not profitable. The moment a retail trader has ANY sort of real edge, he will quickly reach multi-millionare status. Here is a quote from a Credit Suisse report on HFT quoting the head of an HFT firm. You can see that the HFT firms complains that it's win-rate decreased from 54% to 53-52%, but it is still enough. That HFT head also says that having a 58% win-rate will quickly catapult one to billionaire status. But this is REAL EDGE. And REAL 58% win rate, not martingale strategies that blow up. So...

You only need 52% to get rich if you pay no costs and have the tightest of spreads. Run a simulation using real world spreads and costs and you'll find that you need a lot more then 52%.

Eg, as a staring point, look at the real world trading costs from here http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...erage-spreads/, for small retail traders the 1.2 pip EURUSD costs are much higher then the 0.2 pip costs of HT traders. Now generate some statistics on how far does EURUSD move on average in 10 minutes. Suddenly 52% becomes a losing edge....
  • #180
  • Aug 23, 2014 8:35am Aug 23, 2014 8:35am
Quoting beachloup
{quote} You only need 52% to get rich if you pay no costs and have the tightest of spreads. Run a simulation using real world spreads and costs and you'll find that you need a lot more then 52%. Eg, as a staring point, look at the real world trading costs from here http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...erage-spreads/, for small retail traders the 1.2 pip EURUSD costs are much higher then the 0.2 pip costs of HT traders. Now generate some statistics on how far does EURUSD move on average in 10 minutes. Suddenly 52% becomes...
I havent seen any retail traders scalp 10 min positions, if they do their either have a very good ECN broker and trade in high volatility conditions, or they are just very stupid.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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