A "new" simple system based on MA

1,36 level reached as possible target 2 !

Hmaoui, Thanks for your posts!

Question: Do you use standard MACD settings (12,26,9)? For all time frames?

Thanks

Yes I use standard parameters on all TF. The MACD measures the increase of the spread between 2 moving averages (26 and 12) and compares it to a 9 moving average of this spread. You can change the MACD parameters if you want but I dont think it has to be changed according to the TF. I think that it can be changed because you want to see the spread of other moving averages. For example, you may want to know the spread between the 15MA and the 30MA because it is guppy moving averages. But I prefer to keep the standard parameters because most of traders lookt at it on all TF. It is a very much used indicator such as the RSI or Stochastics. So to see the same trend that other traders, I prefer to use the standard parameters..but the most important is to master the indicator you use so that you can translate it !

I just had a look at my FF private mailbox and saw that many people here are asking me for ebooks. Please leave me your mail and I will send some "ebooks" for free.....of course !

Hello dear followers ! I just checked my private message and I had one with a surprise inside lol !!! Someone told me that my system is only for dummies and that the best system and the only one which can get results in real is SONIC R System and that's why it is so popular here. So, I answered him that I dont care about his believes and that I dont have time to waste but it is really interesting to developp my point of view here.

First, I give really much respect to this guy (SonicDeejay) and his team (especially traderathome) because he set up a real strong thread here ! I am not in a competition with any thread on FF becuase my goal is not to become the first here ! I get most of my money from the markets.

Second, SONIC R System, as it is said by SoniDeejay is inspired from a book of Raghee Horner which I read last week too. The heart of this system is about the Wave (3 EMAs) which give you the market bias (UP / DOWN / FLAT). So it is just to say that what I am going to tell you is based on real background.

Third, I read a lot of pdf about SONIC R System. I must say it is quality ebooks and the system is very well explained. But it is interesting to show you that SONIC R System is not so much different from mine here ! Ready to understand ?

SONIC R system is based on trend trading : the 34 EMAs (applied on high/low/close - which is called the tunnel) give you the markets bias through the angle of the EMAs, and it is another EMA (89) which gives the longer term trend. If the Tunnel is above the 89EMA with a good angle so you check for long (vice versa for shorts). Do you see something really different from Guppy Multiple Moving Averages ??? You have the LT EMAs and the ST EMAs ! For me it is the same philosophy !

SONIC R System warms you about PVSRA (Price Volume Support Resistance Area). It is a really important concept in my trading system too ! How much time I spent to warm traders here about the importance of S/R areas that you can get on higher TF (1h / 4h / Daily etc...) and also PP levels for daytraders and scalpers. Of course I never told you about volume because volume does not really exist on Forex : you can get the number of ticks in a period of time and that's why I sometimes use tick charts because it is more accurate for timing. Do you see a difference ?

SONIC R System, in classic entries, is focusing on candles especially to get reversal points : they focus on pinbars/hammers and engulfing candles. The concept is to look at these candles on higher timeframe and wait for a confirmation on 15mn. For examaple, if you have a hammer after a downtrend making a double bottom for example, then you check a reversal on 15mn. I always told here that price action is something you cant avoid ! I remember that I wrote to do your job and check on google and James16 thread for those who dont know about candlesticks patterns. I also told you that candles are very much important especially on longer timeframes (1h/ 4h/ Daily / Weekly). I even use it when I want to enter on a good pullback even on shorter timeframes !!!! So again what is the difference ?

I guess two differences : I am waiting for pullback whereas you can take B/O trades with SONIC R System. My choice is all about risk management. The second difference is about psychology because I really warm traders about psychological aspect which is the real key to succeed in trading for a living, using my system, The SONIC R System, or even your own system such as my students !

So to make a long story short : I am sure that this guy wont earn money until he changes his mind even with the "best forex system" on FF and "the only one to make money for real" as he said me ! lol. Why ? Because his psychology is not compatible with trading requirements. The evidence is that he lost his time to criticise other threads instead of focusing on his trading. I told you on this thread (you can check of course) that one aspect of losers is to look after a new system to get the perfect one....which does not exist !!! So Master the indicators to master the system, be focused on your job, and never forget that psychology is the key ! I think it was important to post this message.....and much respect to SONIC which apparently runs his own hedgefund now !

@all

if somebody want to see today or tommorrow a free webinar with daryl guppy

http://learning.esignal.com/seminars...ptt6QPWA%3D%3D

Daryl Guppy Introduces Trading with ANTS
Presented by Daryl Guppy, Guppytraders.com
WHEN: Jul 30, WED


http://learning.esignal.com/images/p...nar_DGuppy.jpg
Event Details:
Daryl will be introducing an evolution of his 'Guppy Multiple Moving Average' (GMMA) - the 'ANTS SuperGuppy Indicator Suite' from ANTSSYS, launched and made available for the first time with eSignal v12.0.
The suite includes a set of small Red and Green triangles - the ANTS - which is changing the way people trade and increasing profits.
In this webinar you'll discover:

1. How the ANTS combine principles of GMMA with a proprietary ANTSSYS algorithm to fire user configurable Green and Red Buy and Sell signals
2. How to use the 'SuperGuppy' to identify trend and changes in trend
3. How the ADR Levels can be set to target profit levels
4. How the Traders ATR can be used to provide an optimal trailing stops loss

I dont know if anybody saw the Webinar ? I didnt see it. Anyway, be careful because these type of webinars are usually the opportunity to sell you signals to trade. The fact that they told about proprietary algorithm warmed me ! The initial GMMA system is enough for us : we have to understand that when Long term and short term traders are going the same way, there is a consensus for a trend and then we look for pullback to get the best R/R ratio and the best probability of success for our trades. This is the same philosophy with checking higher TF charts to trade on shorter TF. But it could be interesting to listen to Daryl Guppy, especially to better understand how EMAs can be used in trading. Let us know if anybody saw it.

Hmaoi, I did not see the webinar but thanks for the further explanation on guppy MA's. The repetition is always useful!

Hello,

Here is a long term analysis of EUR/JPY. We start with a monthly chart, and we go down until the 4h chart. This is an analysis to show you :

1/ The system can be used on any TF
2/ How to use it to do your job : if you are prepared to trade, you can be confident and focused on the markets.

This is the same thing for short term analysis : take a 1h chart, then go down until 1min or 150/300 ticks charts.

So, Monthly : The trend is up with short term EMAs above long term EMAs, confirmed by a clearly positive DMI and a RSI21 above his neutral zone. Price are right now in consolidation with a tight true range and a support given by short term EMAs. If we look at the stochastics, we can see that it is near the oversold zone. There could be a buying opportunity.

On the weekly chart : There is no trend as price, ST EMAs, LT EMAs are at the same level ! We have a support near 136. This is confirmed by both DMI and RSI.

On the daily chart : We previously had a bearish trend (more than 400 pips). Now there is a rally but we have a resistance near 137,50/137,70. The DMI is flat and the RSI on its neutral zone. We have to wait for a B/O of the neutral zone by the RSI and a B/O of the EMAs by the price to get a potential reversal. Then, we will look for a good pullback confirmed by Stochastics to enter the market. Price can also go back down with a first target at the recent low. If it breaks down then the trend will continue but if there is a double bottom, it could be interesting to check at 4h chart to get an entry point to go long.

On the 4h chart, we had a bullish divergence but after the B/O of 137,20 level price never went above 138. Now we have a consolidation with flat LT EMAs and a RSI21 on his neutral zone. No trade at the moment.

I think that we can trade a little bearish movement if we have a B/D on the RSI and the price (under EMAs), getting an entry point on 1h chart and with a first target at 136,50. However, the long term trend (monthly) is bullish, and as Weekly and Daily charts are now neutral, if there is a B/O movement we will be able to get a good buying entry point on a pullback. First target is 138 (recent high) and 138,50 / 140 / 142. The most important level is 136 for me.

When you have this in mind, you are prepared to trade the markets and you know what you are waiting for. Then apply the system (trend established / Pullback / Tight stop / partial exits on S/R levels).

Many Thanks Hmaoui!!

Hello !

As you can see on the chart joined (1h chart) we had a B/D with price under EMAs and a break of the neutral zone on the RSI, confirmed by a negative DMI. Then a nice pullback confirmed by low true range candles and a good stochastics level. Possible entry near 137,50 (SL@137,80 - 30 pips) and our first target has been reached at 136,50 for 100 pips. Now profit locked @137,15 looking for 136 level to exit all positions or at least 80%. Do you understand how to use the system in any TF ?

Did you follow the trade idea ??? I hope so !!!

Hello dear followers (and others).

I have many many questions by mail whereas there is not any one on this thread. Please use this thread to post your charts and your questions. This is the best way to improve your own trading and to help other traders to benefit from your questions and my answers. I do my best to answer your mails about trading, about the blog and so on...But please make this thread alive to keep a community spirit.

Ok. I entered short on the Dax30 at 9390. We have a clear downtrend on the daily chart confirmed by DMI and MACD and a good rally from 8900 to 9400. Stochastics are overbought on the daily TF too and price are stopped by hard resistance near 9400 (LT EMAs and resistance level). Now on the 1mn TF, we have a break of the EMAs followed by a rally confirmed by stochastics overbought level and little candles. I took half of my profit at the pivot point (9357) for 30 pips of profit. I put my S/L at B/E ofr the other half and I manage my tade on the 15mn chart now because it can make a large move (on the daily chart the first target is 9000).

Be careful on the Dax30 because 1 pip = 25€ ! Dont forget it.

Hi Hmaoui,
I am applying your system to the E-mini S&P 500.The trading time works well for me, 9:30 AM- 4:45PM EST. My question is: How many times a week to you place a trade? And, is there anything on the E-mini I should be aware of with applying your system? I use the 1 hour and 15 minute as trend direction and enter on 5 minute if all paremetrs are correct. Thanks!

Now we are at 9300 level.....90 pips of profit on the second half. I took 50% of profit on the half (mean 25% of the initial position). I let the 25% run, my SL is now at 9375 (just above the PP and last recent high on 5mn TF. Now I will exit at the end of day all the position except 10% which will become a swing trade targetting the 9000 level.

Here is a EUR/USD analysis I gave to my "classroom". You can see that even on long term this system can be traded. For swing traders, it was 230 pips of profit on half of the position and now more than 400 pips of virtual profit. At the minimum the profit will be of 250 pips on the second half because the SL is now @1,3450 level.

Hello. My system can be traded on any pair, future, commodity, or stock. It does not matter ! On the E-mini as for any market you trade you have to be aware of your market. I mean you have to master your market. Know the volatility, the news which can move your market, etc. But the way you trade, checking the higher TF is the good way. E-mini is a very good market with high volume.....but not traded 24h/24h ! Be aware especially of US market open. But you generally got it !

Thanks hmaoui for posting (as I said earlier, I would most certainly like to see more of the same more often). One question about MACD:
As you indicated earlier, you consider MACD to be bearish if it is below zero. On the daily chart that you attached, both MACD lines (MAs) are below zero, while the histogram is above zero and is green. Do I get it right that as long as the LINES (moving averages) remain below zero, you consider MACD to be bearish and disregard the histogram (and the fact that the lines had crossed upwards)? (The same question/situation applies to the EU trade that you posted later).

Thanks again, green pips, and post more often!

Hi midnightrun. As I look at the trend on higher TF, I look at the zero line on the MACD. Of course, the histogram can warn you about a possible rally in a downtrend or sell off on an uptrend. But when you use this indicator to get the major trend you have to look at the situation of the lines compared to the zero line : this is the most important ! After that you have to check for possible divergence to be sure that the trend may not be finished and to avoid a bad timing. Histogram is more important when you are about to enter the market (timing). The best is to wait for a pullback and then enter the market when the histogram is decreasing or staying at the same level with a good candlestick pattern.