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Funny Looking Rectangles & Useless Drivel

  • #421
  • Aug 20, 2014 10:43pm Aug 20, 2014 10:43pm
Quoting Relativity
{quote} I would second this approach because not only this is precisely how I do it, but it is the only logical approach coming from a systems and engineering point of view, where an degree of failure cannot be tolerated and high reliability is required. Isn't that what we all (well, maybe almost) want out of a trading system? That's also what bewilders me why there are people who still reject this approach and stick to their dogma, that no longer works from a statistically point of view, but they are actually relying on experience and money management...

I cannot imagine taking anything less than a scientific-like approach to system development using statistics at the core of every decision to include or not include an indicator. The system will be no better than its weakest link coupled to the inherent failure rate of any human designed machine. If the goal is to allow the system to make the decision, then that requires a huge investment of time and energy in weeding out weakness and optimizing strengths while being careful not to over-optimize to the point of curve fitting. It is a delicate balance and that is why I consider trade system development to be half science and half art.

It is either the scientific expression of art, or the artistic expression of science.

I actually have to put myself into a certain mental framework to do that kind of work anymore. I cannot just go there in my mind anymore and do full time research like that. Research is hard work and often times a pain in the butt. I really have to get up for it and gear my mind for that kind of work. It is not easy. I've been trading for so long now, that the pure research seems almost painful now. But, if I come across an idea that seems worthy, I have been known to completely shut down all trade operations and go full blast on research. So, I can still get there in my mind, but it does take a huge motivating factor, like a really good looking idea that deserves to be explored.

And, no. Most people will not engage in this kind of difficult raw research. I do not blame them as it is very hard work. You could spend a long time trying to push an idea into production and the idea just never makes it because it is not good enough, if you maintain your standards that no junk gets into the system. That's self discipline defined. Not every Trader is going to be that hard core. I used to like that hard core, but that stuff can be very painful at times.

I'm talking about picking up your monitor and throwing at the wall painful - I have done that before several times over the years. True story. I once took my computer out to a range and shot it with a 45 caliber semi-automatic. I then got my head on straight, bought a new machine and continued my work. Sometimes, you just have to step away for a while and go do something else for a week - then come back refreshed. This is not a sprint. The whole thing is a marathon. It is a Way of Life. You have to love Trading. It has to be a big part of who you are, or people will not develop the survival mentality required to make it long term.

On the other hand, you have to know when to quit, leave an idea alone and start working on a new idea. This is a level of internal sensitivity that few Traders will come to know. You need to develop a sixth sense about when something is not going to work and then move on to something else that will. At the very same time, you cannot give up on an idea too soon. This level of research skill comes with time and experience. Knowing when to shift gears is just as important as developing new ideas in the first place.

You just have to want it bad enough, that's all. Blow off what over steam you need to and then get back to work - take time off when you need to - strike a good balance between work and relaxation, etc. You have to be very determined to see success and not give up when things get tough. It can be done, but the Trader has to really want it.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #422
  • Aug 20, 2014 10:58pm Aug 20, 2014 10:58pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} I cannot imagine taking anything less than a scientific-like approach to system development using statistics at the core of every decision to include or not include an indicator. The system will be no better than its weakest link coupled to the inherent failure rate of any human designed machine. If the goal is to allow the system to make the decision, then that requires a huge investment of time and energy in weeding out weakness and optimizing strengths while being careful not to over-optimize to the point of curve fitting. It is a delicate...
Many much thanks iDoubleStoch. I read ya =) I don't destroy my computers, goodness, but yes, time off (I do shopping and time with friends), and knowing when to drop the ego and move on to another idea... that comes with some experience I say.

Not to reveal too much hopefully, but do you think age as a person plays a role? I do consider myself young and know a few others personally who are just as hungry (you know who you are!). From what you are saying, it seems that physical endurance matters and as we age, we don't have that capacity to continue as we used to back then? But isn't it what creating the system is for; to compensate our weaknesses, inclusive of us being human, that we age?

I have my personal doubts sometimes if the effort vs reward is worthwhile in the long run. Please don't get me wrong, its only 2-3 years for my case and I do see the rewards coming in already. I do very much appreciate your work, that it has an effect of accelerating my growth and progress, that I worry much less about the ifs... that if 'I am taking the wrong path and wasting my time'.
  • #423
  • Aug 20, 2014 11:10pm Aug 20, 2014 11:10pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Hi iDoubleStoch and Everybody! First of all, thank you so much iDoubleStoch for sharing this little piece from your trading arsenal and for showing me a very good way to classify patterns. Here is my little contribution to this thread. I made this indicator to quickly visualize the B2i boxes and their levels. You can expand further from this if you wish and feel free to modify and share ...
Hey saver thanks for the indicator, it sure saves me a lot of time having to draw all the levels myself (:
I just popped it into my MT4 and have it on the 24x1hr settings (1440, 24). I noticed a bug that it seems to be offsetting every next box by 1 bar; I have a very limited knowledge of MQL4 so if you have an idea of where the issue is I might be able to locate it myself.
Attached is a point where it is perfectly synced up, and then you'll notice each box start is moved over 1 bar.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 62 KB
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #424
  • Aug 20, 2014 11:31pm Aug 20, 2014 11:31pm
Quoting LiquidGenius
{quote} Hey saver thanks for the indicator, it sure saves me a lot of time having to draw all the levels myself (: I just popped it into my MT4 and have it on the 24x1hr settings (1440, 24). I noticed a bug that it seems to be offsetting every next box by 1 bar; I have a very limited knowledge of MQL4 so if you have an idea of where the issue is I might be able to locate it myself. Attached is a point where it is perfectly synced up, and then you'll notice each box start is moved over 1 bar. {image}
Oh yea, good catch. Here, I fixed it up.

However, if you want to draw a D1 box end of every single day, then what you need to set the setting to is:
forTimeFrame: D1
drawEvery_X_bars: 0

By specifying every_X_bars, you are telling it to draw a box every X number of bars from starting place that you specified with the maxBars variable so the timing won't sync up. If you think about it H4 or H1 bars don't really exist... You could just use M1 and draw a new box of the specified size by forTimeFrame to make a box for that time frame you want every X number of bars (even every 1min if you wanted to).

Hope that helps.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 BoxMaker.mq4   7 KB | 550 downloads
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #425
  • Aug 20, 2014 11:35pm Aug 20, 2014 11:35pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Oh yea, good catch. Here, I fixed it up. However, if you want to draw a D1 box end of every single day, then what you need to set the setting to is: forTimeFrame: D1 drawEvery_X_bars: 0 By specifying every_X_bars, you are telling it to draw a box every X number of bars from starting place that you specified with the maxBars variable so the timing won't sync up. If you think about it H4 or H1 bars don't really exist... You could just use M1 and draw a new box of the specified size by forTimeFrame to make a box for that time frame you want...
Ohhhh, I see. Thanks a lot! it's much more clear now
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #426
  • Aug 21, 2014 12:22am Aug 21, 2014 12:22am
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} I cannot imagine taking anything less than a scientific-like approach to system development using statistics at the core of every decision to include or not include an indicator. The system will be no better than its weakest link coupled to the inherent failure rate of any human designed machine. If the goal is to allow the system to make the decision, then that requires a huge investment of time and energy in weeding out weakness and optimizing strengths while being careful not to over-optimize to the point of curve fitting. It is a delicate...
Going through the loops of
1)promising idea (EUREKA, this must be it)
2)build a trading logic out of it
3)testing it
4)conclusion
5)feedback adjustments
6)test again
7)adjust and test again........
8)and again...... and again...........until
9) disappointment, KIV idea. Rinse and repeat.


This PAINFUL cycle again and again... until hitting the "Yes", is one of the worst mental tortures in life. Probably what thomas edison went through to get our light bulbs. But if it is inside you, no matter how pain it is, you will be back shortly excited with something new.
  • #427
  • Aug 21, 2014 12:33am Aug 21, 2014 12:33am
Quoting Rand Yap
{quote} Going through the loops of 1)promising idea (EUREKA, this must be it) 2)build a trading logic out of it 3)testing it 4)conclusion 5)feedback adjustments 6)test again 7)adjust and test again........ 8)and again...... and again...........until 9) disappointment, KIV idea. Rinse and repeat. This PAINFUL cycle again and again... until hitting the "Yes", is one of the worst mental tortures in life. Probably what thomas edison went through to get our light bulbs. But if it is inside you, no matter how pain it is, you will be back shortly excited...
This is going to be slightly out of topic, although related to these rectangles. My experience tells me the usage of TCD's and price points to price points data as an accurate means of measuring the market does shorten this cycle. Objectively we are trading price (entry) to price (exit), so might as well cut to the chase. Better tools helps to make the torture very much bearable and increase success rates.
  • #428
  • Aug 21, 2014 12:48am Aug 21, 2014 12:48am
Quoting iDoubleStoch
You could spend a long time trying to push an idea into production and the idea just never makes it because it is not good enough, if you maintain your standards that no junk gets into the system. That's self discipline defined. Not every Trader is going to be that hard core. I used to like that hard core, but that stuff can be very painful at times.

On the other hand, you have to know when to quit, leave an idea alone and start working on a new idea. This is a level of internal sensitivity that few Traders will come to know. You need to develop...
Word.


Thanks for the insight on the internal/external meets, it clears up the confusion I had about it from the macro testing perspective. Using fib arcs is certainly something I never would have thought to look at, and never ever would have seen it in the data alone. I will certainly be spending more time looking at them and perhaps make another picture post when EU isn't in a clear trend move. I think the obvious crux to integrating the B2i into rest of the system lies in knowing when the fall line is "valid"(and which other lines) or when the high/low will hold as you said.

I thought a lot about what you said now and in the past about being able to predict levels; I recall some things you've said about ATR being a beginner's start to understanding top/bottoms and some work you did with pivot levels. I once tried to create something similar but what I ended up with was something that showed minimum daily movement as opposed to maximum daily movement. Oops. I assumed it had something to with Distinct Vega (because after all doesn't everything have to do with DV?) with some base parts. If I recall DV was a product of Vega Prime and an MA of the H-L Delta. Bryan (Brabbed) had suggested to me that perhaps I shouldn't have been fixed so much on the value of VP but rather it's 5 elements because I got a little mathy and having things in the equation that cancelled out on paper was a bit confusing to me. Why include H-O and have it subtract H-C when that would just negate the H value? But I see now in the B2i concept that to create the actual fall line number, you need very few elements of the data. Yet the process to have arrived at the simple number involved having the include multiple points; It's only after the value has been discovered and proven that you can strip away the excess parts (since after all B2i in it's basic form is just L+H-O or H-(O-L) ). My problem with the data points and fill numbers (which is about as far I got) was that I never knew where to go next or what I was suppose to "do" with the numbers. This has been a great lesson (:
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #429
  • Aug 21, 2014 1:25am Aug 21, 2014 1:25am
Quoting saver0
{quote} Oh yea, good catch. Here, I fixed it up. However, if you want to draw a D1 box end of every single day, then what you need to set the setting to is: forTimeFrame: D1 drawEvery_X_bars: 0 By specifying every_X_bars, you are telling it to draw a box every X number of bars from starting place that you specified with the maxBars variable so the timing won't sync up. If you think about it H4 or H1 bars don't really exist... You could just use M1 and draw a new box of the specified size by forTimeFrame to make a box for that time frame you want...
Tnx for such a wonderful effort saver0! Maybe attching charts to help illustrate your suggestion would really help limit more questions in the future. Welldone bro!
  • #430
  • Aug 21, 2014 10:52am Aug 21, 2014 10:52am
One idea that just struck me on using, what i think is of the core principles of the B2i, and idouble's view of what equilibrium is, and converted it to an oscillator, to search for divergences.
http://i62.tinypic.com/282i6hc.png
  • #431
  • Aug 21, 2014 11:46am Aug 21, 2014 11:46am
Quoting Rand Yap
One idea that just struck me on using, what i think is of the core principles of the B2i, and idouble's view of what equilibrium is, and converted it to an oscillator, to search for divergences. {image}
nice idea Rand! I'm huge fan of momentum trading, so to me your indy looks awesome. mind sharing?
  • #432
  • Aug 21, 2014 2:15pm Aug 21, 2014 2:15pm
Quoting Relativity
...Not to reveal too much hopefully, but do you think age as a person plays a role?...
It seems to be a matter of self discipline coupled with properly formed expectations for what success looks like, as well as self determination more than anything else. That could be a function of age, but not necessarily. The quality of the ideas one comes up with will go a long way in determining what their level of expectation for success will be. Better ideas will lead to higher levels of expectancy because the Trader understands what is possible, as opposed to constantly being psychologically hammered by what is not possible.

Emotional stability is equally as important during the manual trading process - which can be dealt with through transforming one's beliefs about money in general. This is why I have always believed in running my trading as a business and treating money as inventory used to make more money. Thus, Inventory Control becomes the focus through Risk Mitigation, which helps the psyche deal with the losses that will surely come - but also the gains that will surely come as well. Most hurdles in trading exist between the ears (discounting the real negative effects of retail trading platforms and the problems they present to the trader).

This is one good reason why I favor Automated Trading. But, to lean on automated trading, one has to build something that meets their own needs - not the needs of someone else and that goes to the heart of how one defines success for themselves. The idea is to build and integrate indicators that are good at carving out the number of pips that your needs require on a frequency basis that your goals demand. That will drive the type and kind of indicators you use and the philosophy you bring to your work. Everything else is moot, a long as revenue grows according to your needs. Thus, whatever method, mode or means used to consistently maintain that, is the only thing that is important. That might be a system or it may not be a system. It could be a good methodology or a good tactic. It will be whatever it takes to meet the revenue requirements that you set forth for yourself.

As long as YOUR capital grows at the rate YOU specify (according to your needs), then THAT is success. Everything else is blithering smoke and mirrors and not worthy of your time or energy.

This business is about growing capital consistently - whatever it takes. Keep it legal, moral and ethical. The rest is wide open for interpretation about HOW you actually get there. I choose the path of using creative indicators that nobody else has - or that the masses know nothing about. That's part of my edge. That's my philosophy. That makes me a true StealthTrader, because I'm doing things that most others can't see.

Be as Stealthy as you can.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #433
  • Aug 21, 2014 2:19pm Aug 21, 2014 2:19pm
Quoting Rand Yap
{quote} Going through the loops of 1)promising idea (EUREKA, this must be it) 2)build a trading logic out of it 3)testing it 4)conclusion 5)feedback adjustments 6)test again 7)adjust and test again........ 8)and again...... and again...........until 9) disappointment, KIV idea. Rinse and repeat. This PAINFUL cycle again and again... until hitting the "Yes", is one of the worst mental tortures in life. Probably what thomas edison went through to get our light bulbs. But if it is inside you, no matter how pain it is, you will be back shortly excited...

That's the price one pays for finding something different and that works. It would be nice to be able to buy a book, but then that book would be the most expensive book in all the world. Or, it would be nice to download an "EA," but who in their right mind would sell such a thing to the public. Therefore, unless you know somebody who knows somebody, you have to discover it and built it for yourself. Certainly, not an impossible task, but it will take some work.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #434
  • Aug 21, 2014 2:52pm Aug 21, 2014 2:52pm
Quoting LiquidGenius
...Why include H-O and have it subtract H-C when that would just negate the H value?...
Each Trajectory in Distinct Vega has to be accounted for because that is the primary Price Action of every single bar of data the market produces. It is the historical significance of Distinct Vega that gives value to the current bar and helps to identify the current bar's behavior. Those five (5) Trajectories represent all the "market psychology" contained in one bar. The so-called "trend" can easily be seen in the history of Distinct Vega for any Time Frame. If you had a DV Indicator, you could look at just the indicator alone and know the dominant directional bias of the market. DV goes inside the "trend" and shows you locations where Market Phase Transformations are most likely to take place.

When DV is evaluated across ALL time frames, then you have a much more in-depth picture of what the "trend" is actually doing underneath the basic MA type indicators. With more exploration, one could start developing derivative indicators off the baseline DV data. Entry Triggers for certain types of Pure Delta Trades are also gleaned from DV. Add in TCDs and you open up yet another dimension of possibilities for tradeable Trajectories. Expand the Time Frames to include larger bars of data and now you have tradeable Vectors.

These are Delta Trading Concepts, not to be confused with B2i Predictive type trades. However, when using predictive indicators such as B2i, the real fine tuning is made possible when you account for Price Action using Delta based indicators such as DV and TCD. There are other Delta Class Indicators that I have not shared in public as well, but simply exploring the basic DV and TCD deltas should give clues about how to create your own set of Delta Class Indicators. I could Tactically trade the Delta Class, but the system uses them as tools that measure the existing Magnitude in the market in various Time Frames (bars of data). Combine this with Harmonics, a few other "tools" that I've created and you start to get a glimpse into the world of trading that I do routinely each day.

Delta Trading by itself can be profitable, but you have to do the homework and find the synergy between the various Trajectories and learn when to exploit delta vacuums in the market that have a high probability for getting "Filled." You have to mix and match until you find the right combination for the type of trading you intend to do. Delta Trading makes scalping a breeze when you have the right synergy between the Trajectories. I'm not a big scalper, however. I prefer combining the Short Term Predictive, Long Range Market Bias with the Large Scale Deltas. That mitigates risk, offers psychological comfort and gives trade expectations "time" to conform to market realities. Therefore, I can hang-in a trade with greater draw, knowing that empirically the market has a specific probability for returning to a specific price level within a specific time frame.

This forces the market into a Black Swan "type" of scenario in order for a completely failed trade to be the final result. Therefore, I don't fear Black Swans, I actually use them, but that gets into a highly proprietary concept that I don't discuss. Using so-called Failed Trades in your analysis should be something that every Trader learns how to capitalize on, but it requires that you already have solid historical performance data on your trading system. You can then use the negative data (failed trades) to "hunt" for a window that leads to a string of high probability trades.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #435
  • Aug 21, 2014 4:29pm Aug 21, 2014 4:29pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} Alternatively, and if Rand is willing to create a more flexible version of his indicator based on the B2i, I will share the earlier version of Distinct Vega (not my production design) which will help identify the Highest High and the Lowest Low for the B2i period selected. That will give more internal insight into the levels that make-up B2i before the pattern validates and it will start to provide a greater edge on the Entry Window so that a more pips can be had on the way to the Fall Line...
What do you think - is Saver's indicator flexible enough to share the proto-DV as you're back with guns blazing ?
  • #436
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:36pm Aug 21, 2014 7:36pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} It just means that you analyze the data that you use to make trade decisions using statistics. You first have to develop an idea for an indication of what the market will do under a set of conditions that you define called "trade logic," and then you test that theory scientifically to track the success or failure rate of the idea based on your definition of success or failure. You then use the success/failure statistics/data that you compile to help you determine the viability of the idea you created. That is a rigorous process which will...
I'm sorry I've been away. My day job and recent market behaviour have taken most of my time.

Thank you again, iDoubleStoch, for the valuable info you're sharing here. I will catch up on the weekend.

Best regards,
k
  • #437
  • Aug 21, 2014 7:43pm Aug 21, 2014 7:43pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Hi iDoubleStoch and Everybody! First of all, thank you so much iDoubleStoch for sharing this little piece from your trading arsenal and for showing me a very good way to classify patterns. Here is my little contribution to this thread. I made this indicator to quickly visualize the B2i boxes and their levels. You can expand further from this if you wish and feel free to modify and share There are 3 settings: maxBars: This is the number of bars that you want the indicator to run for forTimeFrame: Specify which time frame boxes that you...
Great work! Thanks
  • #438
  • Aug 22, 2014 12:47am Aug 22, 2014 12:47am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} nice idea Rand! I'm huge fan of momentum trading, so to me your indy looks awesome. mind sharing?
This is not a momentum based indicator. What is your interpretation of the b2i concept?
Why is it drawn as such?
What is the significance of the fall line?
Why is it that the fall line has an uncanning high probability of being hitted?
Why is it that when you go to the one tick movement, the fall line becomes the close?
Why is it that when you start going further up in time frames, the fall line deviates from the close?
What does the deviation means?
Does the angle, width, height of the rectangle makes a diff? what does these parameters signifies?

I try to understand all these and came up with a logic to work on.
what is your logic then?
  • #439
  • Aug 22, 2014 1:05am Aug 22, 2014 1:05am
Quoting Rand Yap
{quote} This is not a momentum based indicator. What is your interpretation of the b2i concept? Why is it drawn as such? What is the significance of the fall line? Why is it that the fall line has an uncanning high probability of being hitted? Why is it that when you go to the one tick movement, the fall line becomes the close? Why is it that when you start going further up in time frames, the fall line deviates from the close? What does the deviation means? Does the angle, width, height of the rectangle makes a diff? what does these parameters...
This is not a momentum based indicator. What is your interpretation of the b2i concept?
-I don't see it as momentum based indicator as well, but a projected wave structure (specifically reverse/resume structure)

Why is it drawn as such?
-To me this is a natural form of the market 'as it is'

What is the significance of the fall line?
-That the return leg of the swing has 90% chance of hitting

Why is it that the fall line has an uncanning high probability of being hitted?
-I don't know. I don't think that there is a need to know right now, but it would be nice to find out later

Why is it that when you go to the one tick movement, the fall line becomes the close?
-Because the real chart is the tick chart?

Why is it that when you start going further up in time frames, the fall line deviates from the close?
-See above

What does the deviation means?
-From my own studies and just price perspective of where this return leg's length can be, there are 2 deviations; shorter or longer. Shorter = price stalling and looking to continue overall trend. Longer = price look to reverse, using the return leg for momentum.

Does the angle, width, height of the rectangle makes a diff? what does these parameters signifies?
-Yes because of the speed and length of the price stretching the rectangle has effect on the return leg later, but again, it depends pretty much on what kind of chart are you using; assuming time based chart for most ppl out there
  • #440
  • Aug 22, 2014 2:06am Aug 22, 2014 2:06am
To be exact, these are actually funny looking parallelograms, not rectangles ! lol.
Don't think there is any right or wrong answers, just different perspectives based on each individual's understanding on the nature of price.. What matters is how you can make it useful for yourself.
The in depth answers to the questions i think leads to the core principals of B2i ,which is off the scope of what iDouble is willing to share. He may scratch the surface, but nothing more.
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