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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #15,821
  • Edited 12:46pm Aug 18, 2014 11:05am | Edited 12:46pm
Quoting janpec1000
Well EU looks nicely bottomed, will look for longs next week. Both sides are still strong but longing near bottom is little risk for good reward.
Price just testing bottom again, but daily doesnt look good for longs anymore. Staying out. As i posted few pages ago, dollar levels were both well defended and played out well on longs.
http://prntscr.com/4e1h3f

We still need to go higher to define further up move.

Gold made good bottom, m5 longs preffered with small risk.


EDIT:

Looks like AUD and NZD strenght coming for some time.

http://prntscr.com/4e2g3f
http://prntscr.com/4e2gex
http://prntscr.com/4e2gtj

As for gold previously posted above, i am not sure about longs anymore so cancel previous statemnt, i stay flat on gold.
  • #15,822
  • Aug 18, 2014 4:55pm Aug 18, 2014 4:55pm
What Pairs TRENDS the most, or what Pair are the most active during New York session?
Depict history, predict future, and the area in between ...
  • #15,823
  • Aug 18, 2014 6:51pm Aug 18, 2014 6:51pm
Quoting Al-Agha
What Pairs TRENDS the most, or what Pair are the most active during New York session?

Hi,

I do not know - never cared about.

Maybe you do a google search for "daily Forex statistics"
  • #15,824
  • Aug 19, 2014 4:44am Aug 19, 2014 4:44am
Shitty weather here again - what a mess this year when one wants to climb



Here is the EW analysis of Horvat

http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ell...er/2014/08/19/


As many Elliotticans, he sees us in a wave 5 of wave 3 now.

Although the last broad sideways action can be counted as a wave 4 triangle, most of this pundits have not shown, how they came to the conclusion, that the subwave 3 of 3 ended at the 3333 low.

All counts in this regard I have seen so far, have not shown a count of the subwaves, but simply placed a number 3 at the end of the wave.


As I layed out in my previous postings,

a) momentum distribution called for 5 completed waves down

b) the strength of the momentum in the wave down from the 37oo high is lesser than that of the preceding wave down

c) the wave down from the 37oo high does not show acceleration


Therefore I stay with my count which assumes, that the wave down from the 37oo high is only the subwave 1 of a wave 3

I may end up totally wrong. But so is life.



Major no-business-zones I am concerned with are

3303, 3183 and 2858 all +/- 9 pips)

Since we never reached the 3303, but formed a nice distribution zone between roughly 3333 and 3450, I do expect a test of the 3303 zone with rejection up to the 3350 zone again.

Chances are high, that once we overcome the 3303 no-business-zone, price will run to the other side of thios major distribution until it reaches the 2858 no-business-zone. In between we have two bigger hurdle: the 3183 no business zone (but is not so significant as the 3303 and the 2858) and the ultra-high-volume zone @ around 3089
  • #15,825
  • Aug 19, 2014 5:09am Aug 19, 2014 5:09am
Quoting infinitus
Shitty weather here again - what a mess this year when one wants to climb Here is the EW analysis of Horvat http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ell...er/2014/08/19/ As many Elliotticans, he sees us in a wave 5 of wave 3 now. Although the last broad sideways action can be counted as a wave 4 triangle, most of this pundits have not shown, how they came to the conclusion, that the subwave 3 of 3 ended at the 3333 low. All counts in this regard I have seen so far, have not shown a count of the subwaves, but...


OK, my call wa s heard, it seems LOL


Here is Horvat with a detailed count of the wave 3

http://www.ew-forecast.com/newslette...1.3300_in_view
  • #15,826
  • Aug 19, 2014 5:19am Aug 19, 2014 5:19am
EU

some charts
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  • #15,827
  • Aug 19, 2014 5:23am Aug 19, 2014 5:23am
This chart is for Vlady
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  • #15,828
  • Aug 19, 2014 5:33am Aug 19, 2014 5:33am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Price just testing bottom again, but daily doesnt look good for longs anymore. Staying out. As i posted few pages ago, dollar levels were both well defended and played out well on longs. http://prntscr.com/4e1h3f We still need to go higher to define further up move. Gold made good bottom, m5 longs preffered with small risk. EDIT: Looks like AUD and NZD strenght coming for some time. http://prntscr.com/4e2g3f http://prntscr.com/4e2gex http://prntscr.com/4e2gtj As for gold previously posted above,...
Yup all went as planned. Strenght on NZD and AUD, also EU first higher bottom failed as planned. However now there seems to be nice oportunity for long at 1.335
  • #15,829
  • Aug 19, 2014 6:49am Aug 19, 2014 6:49am
Latest for USD:

It seem selling pressure on resistance zone (red-lines) has been absorbed or at least diminished,
also buyers already re-entered on buying zone (green-rectangle).

However if this mean bullish or at least neutral then it need to be confirmed from next 2 or 3 bars before actual breakout occur, but i'm not really sure about this so perhaps you guys want to improve..

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  • #15,830
  • Aug 19, 2014 7:24am Aug 19, 2014 7:24am
Quoting andexQ
Latest for USD: It seem selling pressure on resistance zone (red-lines) has been absorbed or at least diminished, also buyers already re-entered on buying zone (green-rectangle). However if this mean bullish or at least neutral then it need to be confirmed from next 2 or 3 bars before actual breakout occur, but i'm not really sure about this so perhaps you guys want to improve.. {image}

Hey i agree from USDCHF perspective. I have already withdrawn my EU long entries as situation is rather unclear.
  • #15,831
  • Aug 19, 2014 7:42am Aug 19, 2014 7:42am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Hey i agree from USDCHF perspective. I have already withdrawn my EU long entries as situation is rather unclear.

Better safe than sorry..
Anyway i'm a bit suspicious that somehow we must see false breakout or fail breakout first before actual breakout occur..
  • #15,832
  • Aug 19, 2014 10:38am Aug 19, 2014 10:38am
Hehe:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...mberg-headline

Such robust and real markets we have lately
  • #15,833
  • Aug 19, 2014 11:30am Aug 19, 2014 11:30am
Quoting janpec1000
Hehe: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...mberg-headline Such robust and real markets we have lately
  • #15,834
  • Aug 19, 2014 11:33am Aug 19, 2014 11:33am
Quoting infinitus
EU some charts {image} {image} {image}
up or down...

My swinging & long term orders are waiting for an upthrusting event (1.40/45).
Let's see end of 2014.
FXcube
  • #15,835
  • Aug 19, 2014 6:17pm Aug 19, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting infinitus
This chart is for Vlady {image}


Appreciate the PM. I'll be reading up on Sam Seiden!
Also, I hadn't come across the No-Business Zones - it definitely rings the right notes! More to add to the reading!

Thanks again!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #15,836
  • Aug 20, 2014 2:13am Aug 20, 2014 2:13am
EU volume profiles


well, since we are on almost all profiles into the left tail, risk builds up for a move to the upper side.

But keep in mind:

sometimes, in strong trending markets, we do get runaway-distributions, which will form a new distribution as soon as price finds the next base
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  • #15,837
  • Aug 20, 2014 3:02am Aug 20, 2014 3:02am
Hi infinitus, I don't know how to read your chart. How can I?
Bavarian Trading FX
  • #15,838
  • Aug 20, 2014 3:03am Aug 20, 2014 3:03am
EU

Murrey Math levels and direction (VWAP assisted)


the intermediate risk lays towards 3184 on the lower side


short term the system calls for a retracement towards 3336 to 3367 zone

short term risk may be defined as 3275



grrrrrr - hate it, when I am not sure about the damn EW count

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  • #15,839
  • Aug 20, 2014 3:19am Aug 20, 2014 3:19am
Quoting Deutschland
Hi infinitus, I don't know how to read your chart. How can I?


Hi my friend,

the "chart" shows volume distributions.

This volume distributions are volume by price. I use Tick-volume, which is a very accurate proxy for real volume in Forex. Its accuracy is above 95%.


You see different chart there: short term distributions up to really long term distributions.


In this distributions you look for

a) where is price located on a Gaussian curve? If price is far left or far right (on the tails), it may be more prone to mean reversion

b) you look for ultra-low-volume zones - in ultra low volume zones price traded in the past either not or only with low volume (no demand or no supply)

when price, like now, overjumps such a zone (3303), it will most probably run to the next no business zone. Look for Gausssian-like distributions in the distributions. On the long term distribution of 864 days I have marked such a distribution.

Pitty right now is, that price on most of my distributions has run far into the left tail. With only one distribution left, the 864 days distribution, the precision and meaningfulness suffers a bit.

My system deals with market memory. And like in real life, memory fades a bit for the events far in the past, and is more present for the events nearby.


If more questions, simply ask :-)
  • #15,840
  • Aug 20, 2014 3:29am Aug 20, 2014 3:29am
just to say:

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that was yesterday evening when price was around 3318


the low today was 3285

so the account was nearly wiped out, I guess


see, that is the problem with all the Trade Explorers of the Demo-Pippers.


Over-leveraged, poor money management, designed, only to attract and mislead the newbies............


Where is his Trade Explorer now, I might ask.
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