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Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

  • #41
  • Aug 14, 2014 2:03pm Aug 14, 2014 2:03pm
Quoting merquise
Ok, the way I see it: 1 000 % / 20 days = 50 % a day 50 % / 25 pairs = 2 % per pair 1st day: 1 000 $ * 50 % = 500 $ 500 $ / 25 pairs = 20 $ per pair Since trading multiple pairs the margin requirement would be huge if trying to trade 1 mini lot per pair or (10 000), therefore micro lots are the only available option. In that case to make 20 $ a pair a system would need to generate a 200 pip profit per pair. Margin: 25 pairs * 0.01 = 0.25 lots On 1:50 leverage 0.25 lots would need around 830 $ of total margin (assuming 180 000$ per standard lot,...
On average there are 22 tradeable days in a month, which means that we need to make 11.04% daily, atleast this much, not on average, 11.04 should be the minimum that we make but of course we cant do exact returns, that means that some days we need to exceed this.

So if our daily average can be 11.04% means that we need to make even 20% in some days.

So this may seem huge, but if we find a profitable method its not that impossible.There are like 20+ liquid pairs, which are the crosses of the main currencies.

If we split that 11% over 20+ currencies, assuming that they move equallly much, which is not the case because some currencies always move more than others, but just for the sake of thought imagine if we split 11% daily gain over ,is only 1.81%/pair on a daily basis.

So we need to generate only 2% on every pair, on average to make up this.

So if we go with the smaller risk & more trade scenario, then with a 2:1 RR we only need to risk < 5% and look for double returns, which is if we find trade setups which have 5% risk and 10% reward, then its doable.

Of course some moves may last longer than a day, which is fine, in this case just trail the stops or add/subtract to the positions, because the basket should make 11%/day.

The risk could be also small if we look at this type of method.So its doable.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #42
  • Aug 14, 2014 2:07pm Aug 14, 2014 2:07pm
Quoting merquise
Ok, the way I see it: 1 000 % / 20 days = 50 % a day 50 % / 25 pairs = 2 % per pair 1st day: 1 000 $ * 50 % = 500 $ 500 $ / 25 pairs = 20 $ per pair Since trading multiple pairs the margin requirement would be huge if trying to trade 1 mini lot per pair or (10 000), therefore micro lots are the only available option. In that case to make 20 $ a pair a system would need to generate a 200 pip profit per pair. Margin: 25 pairs * 0.01 = 0.25 lots On 1:50 leverage 0.25 lots would need around 830 $ of total margin (assuming 180 000$ per standard lot,...
On the other hand if we look for intra-week setups, then there are 4.34 weeks in a month on average.

If we look for weekly setups then we need to make 70%/week on average, which means some weeks we need to make more than that because some weeks we might make less than that, especially on holidays and such.

So either 11%/day or 70%/week, we need to determine which one is more doable
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #43
  • Aug 14, 2014 2:39pm Aug 14, 2014 2:39pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} On average there are 22 tradeable days in a month, which means that we need to make 11.04% daily, atleast this much, not on average, 11.04 should be the minimum that we make but of course we cant do exact returns, that means that some days we need to exceed this. So if our daily average can be 11.04% means that we need to make even 20% in some days. So this may seem huge, but if we find a profitable method its not that impossible.There are like 20+ liquid pairs, which are the crosses of the main currencies. If we split that 11% over 20+...
Nice idea on the poll by the way. I am of the opinion though that it's always better to stick to trading pairs that present the highest probability setups on any given trading session, day and/or week instead of trading straight across 20+ pairs at the same time. For instance if I have a grade A setup on EURJPY with a 90+% probability of success, why even bother looking at any other for that day/session??? I'll take that High probability setup for my 11%(or whatever i need to make) and ignore all other lower probability setups.
  • #44
  • Aug 14, 2014 2:45pm Aug 14, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Nice idea on the poll by the way. I am of the opinion though that it's always better to stick to trading pairs that present the highest probability setups on any given trading session, day and/or week instead of trading straight across 20+ pairs at the same time. For instance if I have a grade A setup on EURJPY with a 90+% probability of success, why even bother looking at any other for that day/session??? I'll take that High probability setup for my 11%(or whatever i need to make) and ignore all other lower probability setups.
Thanks.It is good to diversify, and also depends on the nature of that 90%, if the probability is reliable on the long term then its logical to trade that single pair only.

But if it works only on certain conditions, and say you have 3 trade setups and one is 90% and the other 2 is 70% then its good to take all 3 of them, and adjust the risk accordingly, if your max risk/ account is 10%, then use like 6% risk on the 90% probability and 2% risk*2 on the 70% probability setup.

Because if the 90% probability trade loses, you still wont suffer DD if the other 70% trades wins.Its a form of smoothing the equity curve.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #45
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:07pm Aug 14, 2014 11:07pm
Hmm looks like the poll is getting more accurate, so please vote more guys and lets see what the majority of traders think and thats how this system will be designed.Hopefully it will work, we just need to put our brains together
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #46
  • Aug 15, 2014 9:34pm Aug 15, 2014 9:34pm
So any more ideas guys, i`m still waiting and open for suggestions
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #47
  • Aug 16, 2014 5:13am Aug 16, 2014 5:13am
Well, with the poll results so far, and the few suggestions made, It would be nice to see you make a few baby steps in actually laying down some foundations of the system. This will encourage more participation. So lets see what we got so far...majority of 'pollers' opt for

1. An Intraday system - so <H1 TF then. (M1?)

2. Trend Following.

3. Entries at pullback to S/R.

4. Risk >5% per trade.

5. Ignore Long term bias.

6. Trade in LO/NY session only

7. RR RATIO: RISK < REWARD

8. Other market analysis: YES

9. Trade any/all currencies

10. Trade against swap if probability is good ( but I think this is made redundant by the intraday nature of the trades, so no carries?).

These are enough to get the ball rolling. Just choose a form of measurement for quantifying each of the above system parameters and we take it from there. Adjustments or changes can be made as poll results evolve and/or system test results demand. Thats why I posted my simple M1 design just to get the juices flowing. It's not STRICTLY only about the strategy either, as we are all probably aware....
  • #48
  • Edited 8:14am Aug 16, 2014 7:55am | Edited 8:14am
1000%/month ?
that's nothing
how about 5000% in a few hours (edit: no joke)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post7675668
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  • #49
  • Aug 16, 2014 2:23pm Aug 16, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting corrugatedit
1000%/month ? that's nothing how about 5000% in a few hours (edit: no joke) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post7675668 {image}
10 second scalping, haha, no sane broker would let you trade like that.Thats either a demo account or a fake.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #50
  • Aug 16, 2014 2:31pm Aug 16, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting LITEchild
Well, with the poll results so far, and the few suggestions made, It would be nice to see you make a few baby steps in actually laying down some foundations of the system. This will encourage more participation. So lets see what we got so far...majority of 'pollers' opt for 1. An Intraday system - so <H1 TF then. (M1?) 2. Trend Following. 3. Entries at pullback to S/R. 4. Risk >5% per trade. 5. Ignore Long term bias. 6. Trade in LO/NY session only 7. RR RATIO: RISK < REWARD 8. Other market analysis: YES 9. Trade any/all currencies 10. Trade against...
I see already where the poll is going, but there are only 10 voters so far , so lets wait a little bit more until more people vote.

Well if its intraday then either M5 or M1, but i`m not a huge fan of scalping i`m more into event trading, but we shall see what the guys want.

Now we need to determine, how to measure those parameters and quantify it.

My first question is: how to measure a trend correctly?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #51
  • Aug 16, 2014 2:45pm Aug 16, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I see already where the poll is going, but there are only 10 voters so far , so lets wait a little bit more until more people vote. Well if its intraday then either M5 or M1, but i`m not a huge fan of scalping i`m more into event trading, but we shall see what the guys want. Now we need to determine, how to measure those parameters and quantify it. My first question is: how to measure a trend correctly?
1. then you should have included that option in the polls. scalping or news trading. I think it's safe to assume most would prefer scalping.

2. You'll probably get as many diffrent answers as you can imagine for diffrnt ways to measure a trend. But I think it's safe to also assume most will prefer the oldest and most tried method. Moving Averages. Quite adequate for direction. But strength and/or weakness/exhaustion is another matter entirely.

In my opinion I think It's better you just START with some BASIC stuff first(the no-brainers), and let people help EVOLVE it. Instead of throwing every little bitty issue out for debate. Just my opinion anyway. I'll stop posting for a while now so others can contribute as well.
  • #52
  • Aug 16, 2014 5:47pm Aug 16, 2014 5:47pm
Quoting Proximus
I bet you clicked on this thread because you are greedy, which is fine , we are all greedy So just as the title suggests, we should build a system which could potentially make 1000%/month or more, and has a very small DD%.I`m looking for intelligent people here which have trading a (positive) experience to build a system or for guys who are new but are full of ideas.I want creative people here with whom we can design a true Holy Grail! I am sick of systems which make 2-3%/month, the kind of conservative growth is BS and very very slow, i might...
You have to trade with very precise entries (with high win % ratio and good R/R ratio) and follow some strict rules. For example:

1. Using different timeframes (1M/5M as an ENTRY chart and 30M/1H as a MAIN trend identifier chart) -> Scalping following main trend
2. Respecting pivot point, S and R and also supply/demand zones on main trend chart.
3. Using high accurate indicators
4. Using trade manager (setting TP, SL and BE points immediatelly after trade is opened; aggressive BE is what i really like, because it protects my account from losing)
6. Strong MM (even 100% of account)
7. Trading in Europe session hours only (I mean - from 8:30 to 11:00 PM and from 13:00/14:00 to 16:15 PM [GMT+1 time])
8. NOT TO TRADE when some important news or macro data is publishing. It is better to change currency pair this time (but not correlated pair).
9. Define trend - strong trend or sideway and set TP and SL according to this.
10. Compounding -> about 15 pips per day with 100% risk gives you 1000% monthly

"GREED IS GOOD -> GORDON GEKO"

Regards, pretorian1
Aggressive, High Risk, High Gain, High Accuracy
  • #53
  • Aug 17, 2014 5:00am Aug 17, 2014 5:00am
Quote
I see already where the poll is going, but there are only 10 voters so far , so lets wait a little bit more until more people vote.
Do you mean that if enough people tell you elephants can fly you'll throw those animals by a cliff until success or lack of elephants?

By requiring 1000%/mn and 8% max DD, the constraints impose some of the answers in the poll and these answers contradict each other. You simply need a big RR with a high win rate and a high trading frequency. Each requirement limits the two others. You have to square the circle.

Quote
My first question is: how to measure a trend correctly?
I don't think I'm stupid. I'm quite educated. Yet this litlle question kept me busy for two years and I came up with an estimation which is barely better than a SMA20! I measure the strength and, with some limit, the exhaustion. Yet this result is just a little bit better than a corrected Bollinger.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #54
  • Aug 17, 2014 5:59am Aug 17, 2014 5:59am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Do you mean that if enough people tell you elephants can fly you'll throw those animals by a cliff until success or lack of elephants?
Haha not quite, but there is no option in the poll that only people with atleast 50%/year gains can vote.And since this is in the rookie section, probably all answers will be wrong, so we could also take the opposite what the majority votes, as the majority always loses (OK THIS SHOULD NOT INFLUENCE THE VOTING PROCEDURE, EVERYONE SHOULD VOTE WHAT THEY THINK IS CORRECT, AND WE ANALYSE THE DATA LATER)

Anyway we will decide later which answers are good and which are viable for the system and see then what will we use...

Quoting PipMeUp
{quote}
By requiring 1000%/mn and 8% max DD, the constraints impose some of the answers in the poll and these answers contradict each other. You simply need a big RR with a high win rate and a high trading frequency. Each requirement limits the two others. You have to square the circle. {quote}
Ok the 1000% doesnt have to be exact, as one trader said here, "shoot for the starts and you could still land on the moon".
The 8% DD is crucial, so i assume the big RR is also correct.High winrate is not neccesary, and both that and the frequency depends on what timeframe we use.

If its intraday then accuracy is small and frequency is big, if intraweek then vice-versa.We have to see which makes more cumulative profit/a month.

Quoting PipMeUp
I don't think I'm stupid. I'm quite educated. Yet this litlle question kept me busy for two years and I came up with an estimation which is barely better than a SMA20! I measure the strength and, with some limit, the exhaustion. Yet this result is just a little bit better than a corrected Bollinger.
I rather measure the trend from a fundamental perspective, i mean there is a limit to technical analysis.I like S/R zones and bounce backs from there where you can buy at lower cost and sell at higher, but long and mid term trends just simply cannot be predicted by technicals.

As for fundamentals, i already have some theories but i would like some economists, or guys who are experienced in fundamental analysis to confirm.I myself am trained in economics though i dont have a degree, but applying economics to the market is very hard and complicated, it surely needs some quantitative analysis of it

================================================================================
So anyone experienced in fundamental analysis, please write me a PM and we could discuss this , thanks
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #55
  • Aug 17, 2014 6:36am Aug 17, 2014 6:36am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} 10 second scalping, haha, no sane broker would let you trade like that.Thats either a demo account or a fake.
of course it's a joke on demo from a bucketshop datafeed

at worst it demonstrates the nonsense of serious trading with retail forex brokers (essentially everyone that advertises here)
at best it amuses me

the only way someone would seriously contribute to a '_shared_ 1000%/month profit' style system (or ff generally) is if they're a newb with useless information, or a marketer with useless information, or a useful-idiot, or an idiot-savant (either way their description must include either 'useless' or 'idiot', explicitly or inferred, to a significant degree)

otherwise they're amusing themselves at the expense of the others. i guess 'trolling' is the word, comrade. lol
  • #56
  • Aug 17, 2014 7:09am Aug 17, 2014 7:09am
Quote
The 8% DD is crucial, so i assume the big RR is also correct.High winrate is not neccesary, and both that and the frequency depends on what timeframe we use.
Yes a high win rate is required otherwise you'll get strings of losers which lead to bigger DD. To accomodate N losers you'll have to decrease the risk per trade. This goes against the huge return in a short time unless you get an amazing number of entries. And because the HF limits the high RR you're back to the high win rate.

Quote
I rather measure the trend from a fundamental perspective, i mean there is a limit to technical analysis.I like S/R zones and bounce backs from there where you can buy at lower cost and sell at higher, but long and mid term trends just simply cannot be predicted by technicals.
If you rely on high frequency trading on M1 the fundamentals won't help in any way. 500 pips retracement is just nothing for a year long trend. The fundamental perspective will only give you a strong directional bias against which the market can move several days or weeks. Your intraday method just can't tolerate that kind of "little pullback" and at the same time have a big RR with high frequency unless you accept to go against the fundamentals. What is the point of following the multi-week trend when you want to stay less than a few hours in the market?
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #57
  • Aug 17, 2014 10:39am Aug 17, 2014 10:39am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Yes a high win rate is required otherwise you'll get strings of losers which lead to bigger DD. To accomodate N losers you'll have to decrease the risk per trade. This goes against the huge return in a short time unless you get an amazing number of entries. And because the HF limits the high RR you're back to the high win rate. {quote} If you rely on high frequency trading on M1 the fundamentals won't help in any way. 500 pips retracement is just nothing for a year long trend. The fundamental perspective will only give you a strong directional...
very sensible posts my friend. My takes exactly.
  • #58
  • Aug 17, 2014 6:07pm Aug 17, 2014 6:07pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Yes a high win rate is required otherwise you'll get strings of losers which lead to bigger DD. To accomodate N losers you'll have to decrease the risk per trade. This goes against the huge return in a short time unless you get an amazing number of entries. And because the HF limits the high RR you're back to the high win rate.
I meant intra-trade DD, which i consider separate from the equity/balance DD.If course the Reward>Risk will have more consecutive losers, but sometimes this is the only way to trade big price breakouts.Its not reasonable to take more risk than needed, not by a pip more, and usually if we place the trade a the retracement, it doesnt need a big SL and it can still reverse in that small float space which the SL gives to it.

Quoting PipMeUp
{quote}
{quote} If you rely on high frequency trading on M1 the fundamentals won't help in any way. 500 pips retracement is just nothing for a year long trend. The fundamental perspective will only give you a strong directional bias against which the market can move several days or weeks. Your intraday method just can't tolerate that kind of "little pullback" and at the same time have a big RR with high frequency unless you accept to go against the fundamentals. What is the point of following the multi-week trend when you want to stay less than...
Hold on a second, this is not high frequency trading, the M1 is only used to view the market in more detail from the intra-day perspective.I myself dont look for trades which have a duration of less than 2 hours, there is just not so much opportunity in M1 bars, besides retail brokers are not good for that kind of scalping.

Secondly, the 500 pip retracement has also fundamental reasons behind it, or atleast a sentiment shift, it can be predicted more or less.It's the same as the S&P 500, if the USA has >+2% GDP growth /quarter, then why does the S&P 500 retrace? Simple because there are many more events which can shape it, although if the GDP is going up, the S&P 500 will definitely go up aswell, in the long term, so what you can do in that situation is to check other important news aswell which have an impact.

Ucraine crisis,Oil price, Gold,Bond yield,etc..Or atleast the major ones, i just cannot see a single major retracement on the S&P which didnt had a fundamental reason behind it.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #59
  • Aug 18, 2014 12:42am Aug 18, 2014 12:42am
im also interest ... i think 1000% is not hard if we have nice plan.... if u have doubt is it true or not then pls visit demo contests area.. i saw it in nordfx demo contest . they give 10,000$ demo acc for 2 weeks .... lot of guys turn that amount more than 100,000$ within two weeks ... so it is mean it is not a joke ... but i have one problem that is 100$ is sufficient for this .. let c.. experience traders may help and they provide their knowledge here
  • #60
  • Aug 18, 2014 2:37am Aug 18, 2014 2:37am
Quoting us fantasy
im also interest ... i think 1000% is not hard if we have nice plan.... if u have doubt is it true or not then pls visit demo contests area.. i saw it in nordfx demo contest . they give 10,000$ demo acc for 2 weeks .... lot of guys turn that amount more than 100,000$ within two weeks ... so it is mean it is not a joke ... but i have one problem that is 100$ is sufficient for this .. let c.. experience traders may help and they provide their knowledge here
Forget about those bullshit contests! Take 100 morons who never saw a price chart before and let them over leverage a demo account for two weeks you'll for sure get one or two who x10 the account. Just random luck. Let those "exceptional" traders play another week and the accounts are gone. Some traders are certainly very good in those contests. They are not the winners.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
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