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Martingaling - Looks so good until the inevitable

  • #41
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:57pm Aug 14, 2014 11:57pm
Quoting Razor_trader
{quote} Just checked it and it has the following Win - 57.94% Loss - 42.06% Ave Gain - 81.30USD Ave Loss - 77.05USD PF - 1.45 The trader has a current unrealised loss of $17,815 which is down from the $23K earlier today. Up until recently the PF was well over 3 and the average loss was far lower giving a substantial positive expectancy. It still has a positive expectancy but certainly what this has highlighted is that the risk eventually caught up and this expectancy will likely turn negative if they cannot get out of these current positions (8...
Hi Razor, I have a feeling this thread will descend into insult slinging fairly soon.

Interesting to note that the Zulutrade account you linked to, he is not doubling up positions on the G/U, they are 1 and 2 lots, more like grid trading.

Have you seen this guy before? http://www.myfxbook.com/members/togr...-eurusd/662462
Only 12 months old but quite impressive. A grid system, same lot sizes, I think a maxuimum of 30.

Also this one http://www.myfxbook.com/members/dayf...NB0skgYn6ST7WN

He uses 1.5 lot multiplier, 6 max auto trades then, mannually hedges/intervenes. Says he is "a 25 year veteran of the FX market".

I do not follow any signals with ĢĢ$$, just watching.
  • #42
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:59pm Aug 14, 2014 11:59pm
Magix is professional coder guys, believe him. Everything he say is the truth. Martingale can be survived if you know how to manage it probably. My real account is now growing with Magix hard work and all his friends. Again, thank you Magix for helping me to become financial freedom now. God bless you magix
  • #43
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:01am Aug 15, 2014 12:01am
Quoting ngoanhoang3
Magix is professional coder guys, believe him. Everything he say is the truth. Martingale can be survived if you know how to manage it probably. My real account is now growing with Magix hard work and all his friends. Again, thank you Magix for helping me to become financial freedom now. God bless you magix
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #44
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:08am Aug 15, 2014 2:08am
Quoting Magix
I cannot be wiped out...I can lose on trades, I can even lose one of my accounts, but all of the money I have invested into these has been withdrawn and they are now trading profits....
But surely that raises the question: if you believe that your martingale is 100% safe, i.e. will never break down, why the need to withdraw the money?
  • #45
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:31am Aug 15, 2014 2:31am
Quoting hanover
{quote} But surely that raises the question: if you believe that your martingale is 100% safe, i.e. will never break down, why the need to withdraw the money?

If you've only spent a week in market, it might raise that question...

Seriously...

When I took over my first managed account, and after taking my first trade on said account, I lost my internet connection. Logged in to the neighbors and they were on the same provider and were down as well. I now know that my ISP was doing maintenance on their server, happened to be at around 3AM my time, but this was during London Session on the market clock.

End result, I had to drive around the block with my laptop to see if I could leech an open connection to close the trade.

I have been with brokers who have been down for over a day of actual market time and just read about another FF member being locked out of their account, subsequently losing profits on trades due to this.

Last week, I was locked out of my VPS because, well...Windows based. As I wasn't sure if my accounts were still processing orders and were under the watchful eye of my EAs, I elected to close out all trades manually. After doing this, I realized that my EAs were still active because they continued to trade. It wasn't long after, I got back access to my VPS, but at the same time, I would rather have cut the losses instead of waiting for the worst.

Meta4 locks up. Missed entries, Missed Exits, can act as buggy as shit....

Why would I take profits?

These are some of the reasons.

Though the EAs are more hobby sized account traders, the profits are still real...my idea on prosperity, is to utilize the funds in the manner I see fit...

Why would I take profits?

Most importantly, because I can.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #46
  • Aug 15, 2014 5:57am Aug 15, 2014 5:57am
Martingale s for Gamblers not traders
  • #47
  • Aug 15, 2014 8:24am Aug 15, 2014 8:24am
Quoting fagwalawa
Martingale s for Gamblers not traders
If you gamble and win-- Then abscond with your winnings, never to be seen in that venue again.
The question is, how much can you win in a Martingale scheme before you lose it all back and everything else you have.
  • #48
  • Aug 15, 2014 9:14am Aug 15, 2014 9:14am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} If you gamble and win-- Then abscond with your winnings, never to be seen in that venue again. The question is, how much can you win in a Martingale scheme before you lose it all back and everything else you have.
you canīt win without a risk!

allright as Magix mentioned, iīm also running this EA test Nr.2 as visible in my TE

7% floating equity gain ATM
just do it
  • #49
  • Aug 15, 2014 9:28am Aug 15, 2014 9:28am
Is it gambling when you know you'll win though?
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #50
  • Aug 15, 2014 9:37am Aug 15, 2014 9:37am
Quoting fagwalawa
Martingale s for Gamblers not traders

You say this because you've actually worked with the strategy and lost, or are you just chiming in for the sake of agreeing??

Ignorance is of no value. Drop it into a public forum and it becomes worth even less.

As standard applied, I agree that blind trading grids and martingale strategies can be risky...but I'd be willing to be that more traders trade themselves out of market, manually.

The problem with statements like this as well as the thread in it's entirety, is that it opens the doors for those who have tried something and failed, to commonly have a place to come and cry about it...okay, you lost...suck it up and move on...

About the only system that offers as close to 100% perfection in trading, is a forever hold...hold any trade long enough and your chances of success on that trade ending up in profit are in your favor. After that, what are you left with?

Bullshit fundamentals?
Trend trading systems?
An idea of what to do?

Martingale and cost average grid trading aren't new concepts and are employed daily and in a lot of cases, by the same people that say they can't work.

The idea is very simple and very basic and sure, it lends itself to the coin toss guess, in that if you maintain the same guess for each flip of the coin, every time you are wrong, the chances of the next time being correct, increase dramatically...and that a broken clock is always correct at least 2 times per day.

Past this, it is just a matter of when and how to apply this logic.

As a lot of others are already working under the same methodology of either adding to or doubling up on subsequent trades, it is of more value to understand when this can be most effective, not why the idea should be scrapped.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #51
  • Aug 15, 2014 9:54am Aug 15, 2014 9:54am
Quoting Magix
{quote}The idea is very simple and very basic and sure, it lends itself to the coin toss guess, in that if you maintain the same guess for each flip of the coin, every time you are wrong, the chances of the next time being correct, increase dramatically...and that a broken clock is always correct at least 2 times per day. Past this, it is just a matter of when and how to apply this logic. As a lot of others are already working under the same methodology of either adding to or doubling up on subsequent trades, it is of more value to understand when...
IMO - a core principal of trading this market is understanding the statement, "the longer things stay the same, the more they need to change" - for all those who twist their head sideways in wonder of what that means -

the longer price moves DOWN, the higher the probability grows that it WILL reverse UP

the longer price moves UP, the higher the probability grows that it WILL reverse DOWN

SO MANY traders here go with the idea that "I'll enter short ONCE PRICE MOVES DOWN ___ MORE PIPS!!" << this is CUHHHRAP logic to trade with IMO. Martingale and similar strategies rely on this: "BECAUSE Price has moved down ___ pips, and I'm aware that an extended move on this pair, due to my diligence in studying the pairs habits, is ___ pips, I should start considering building a contrarian position by buying into this current weakness or selling into this current strength."

See the difference?? This logic is why I had my strongest longs on the AUD/USD this week in the 9250s. This logic is why I had short trades a week or two ago nice placed at the TOP of the AUD/USD range with maybe 15 pips of drawdown and an average entry within 10 pips.

So many get stuck on fundamental announcements....that's crap IMO...

Never forget what you're trading: the facilitation of international financial transactions. Nothing more. Nothing less. It has patterns. Discovering them can be a POWERFUL addition to whatever flavor of analysis/entry you choose to engage in.

One of my favorite statements I've applied outside of trading is: "Observe the masses and RUN the other way" - It was a great day when I finally realized after much study how to apply that to my trading.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #52
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:41am Aug 15, 2014 10:41am
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} IMO - a core principal of trading this market is understanding the statement, "the longer things stay the same, the more they need to change" - for all those who twist their head sideways in wonder of what that means - the longer price moves DOWN, the higher the probability grows that it WILL reverse UP the longer price moves UP, the higher the probability grows that it WILL reverse DOWN SO MANY traders here go with the idea that "I'll enter short ONCE PRICE MOVES DOWN ___ MORE PIPS!!" << this is CUHHHRAP logic to trade with IMO.

I might seem a heavy advocate for Martingale systems and even weigh in fairly heavy on counter trend trading...these are both ideas that my EAs work with and some as a portion of my manual trade logic...

But that's not to say that this is the only way.

I am not selling anything and really quite personally don't care how people trade or their methodology. At the end of the day, it is only important to me if I am ahead of the previous day or not....ie, the bottom line, is my own bottom line.

Some know me as a fella who likes to pick fights in the forums, and though this may be seemingly true, there is a reason behind it.

When I first started trading, it was in the stock market. I followed groups and plays more than I followed the market. This inevitably leads to only one thing happening, you get to wear the title, BAGHOLDER for a really long time.

Buying tops was almost the surety of this game, but since so many others were doing it, I figured...How can I go wrong?

What you say about the masses...fairly blind sweeping, but in itself, not entirely untrue.

I am more so for people finding their own way in market, rather than having anybody dictate it to them and thus the reason for my harsh words in some cases.

I ain't gunna tell people how, nor what or when to trade...that ain't my game anymore. I've run my own mentor program here and worked with a lot of others who have picked their paths based on the information in front of them. Some are still kicking around, some have left for whatever reasons...still the same, I can't be bothered to do that anymore.

What I can do, and do, do...is work with others on logic that may lead them to their success. A simple trail of bread crumbs and always force the Question, "WHY?"

When somebody says, "This can't be done", this is always the place I like others to question, "WHY?"

The amount of rhetoric here and at any forum is in a lot of cases and to my standards, is intolerable. People read a book, or a thread or know a guy or seen a trade and believe that it is the absolute...in my mind, these are the things to stay away from, Absolutes!

I have a $500 account in my TE. The account is at 500:1. I have accepted a 46% risk on DD. I have a Martingale EA running that will trade up to 6 pairs simultaneously on this account.



All of these actually smack in the face of pretty much everything you will read about what not to do, when trading.

And yet...after all of this, my account has survived and grown over the last month and a half.

What really does that tell you?

That I am lucky, or that maybe a lot of what is available for information on these subjects is pure bullshit...

No, I don't want others to do the same, nor think that this is the only way to trade. What I do want others to do, is take the bullshit statements they read and question them. Use their own experience to find their way in market...longevity in this game is dependent on this very thing.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #53
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:44am Aug 15, 2014 10:44am
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} One of my favorite statements I've applied outside of trading is: "Observe the masses and RUN the other way" - It was a great day when I finally realized after much study how to apply that to my trading.
Describe the statement in detail with an example for us |
Let us also learn from this | Thanks |
Prachait Saxena
  • #54
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:54am Aug 15, 2014 10:54am
While we are at it if someone can identify from which book are these pages I would appreciate it a lot

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post7623920

On the second image in the upper right corner is number 1027 (a page number perhaps), and in top left corner says Risk .... the rest can't be seen....
  • #55
  • Aug 15, 2014 10:59am Aug 15, 2014 10:59am
Quoting Magix
{quote} What I do want others to do, is take the bullshit statements they read and question them. Use their own experience to find their way in market...longevity in this game is dependent on this very thing.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #56
  • Aug 15, 2014 11:01am Aug 15, 2014 11:01am
Quoting merquise
While we are at it if someone can identify from which book are these pages I would appreciate it a lot http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post7623920 On the second image in the upper right corner is number 1027 (a page number perhaps), and in top left corner says Risk .... the rest can't be seen....

I have a black belt in Google, and the boots to match!

Link
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #57
  • Aug 15, 2014 11:03am Aug 15, 2014 11:03am
Quoting prachait
{quote} Describe the statement in detail with an example for us | Let us also learn from this | Thanks |
It's mostly wrapped up right here for me:

SO MANY traders here go with the idea that "I'll enter short ONCE PRICE MOVES DOWN ___ MORE PIPS!!" << this is CUHHHRAP logic to trade with IMO. Martingale and similar strategies rely on this: "BECAUSE Price has moved down ___ pips, and I'm aware that an extended move on this pair, due to my diligence in studying the pairs habits, is ___ pips, I should start considering building a contrarian position by buying into this current weakness or selling into this current strength."

See the difference?? This logic is why I had my strongest longs on the AUD/USD this week in the 9250s. This logic is why I had short trades a week or two ago nice placed at the TOP of the AUD/USD range with maybe 15 pips of drawdown and an average entry within 10 pips.

The other interesting component to this market is that we, as humans are all wired differently. What I do to trade doesn't make sense to most people but it makes sense to me and my trading is better because *I* understand it. Everyone here has their own way, but many fail to realize the end result of winning or losing is the truest indicator, not the indicator itself.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #58
  • Aug 15, 2014 11:22am Aug 15, 2014 11:22am
Quoting Magix
{quote} I have a black belt in Google, and the boots to match! Link
Wow Magix you are the man!

Thanks...based on what you found I was able to further extrapolate information and find that the book name is:

Trading Systems and Methods, Perry J. Kaufman
  • #59
  • Aug 15, 2014 11:40am Aug 15, 2014 11:40am
Think of Martingale as a car. It is simply something used to get you from point A to point B (In our cases for us to reach our finical goal). Yet, the car doesn`t move if you donīt have a driver. Well the driver in this example would be the system your using.

Now if the driver of the car decides to listens to music with his headphones on while driving, do you think he will survive a side impact with a MAC truck? Of course not, but when hear about the accident on the news, do we hear about the driver listening to his music with his headphones on, or do we hear about the make of the car?

Martingale isnīt to blame for such horrible equity curve. The one to blame for that would be the driver (YOU THE TRADER) for taking positions which go against your system, assuming you even have one.

You`ll even see some traders go as far as saying, IF YOU WANT TO TRADE USING MARTINGALE WHY NOT GO TO A CASINO AND BET ON ONLY ON RED. Well those pessimistic individuals fail to realize that TRADING has trends! Roulette or any casino came on the other hand DOESN`T. So if a trader can be disciplined enough to only trade specific patterns, etc (depending on his or her system) and not get caught up with silly terms like OVERBOUGHT OR OVERSOLD OR STOP HUNT ETC, then will they realize that martingale DOES WORK, if used with a very good system! Martingale is only a form of money management. In no way shape or form does it have to do with WHY you buy or sell!
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #60
  • Aug 15, 2014 1:07pm Aug 15, 2014 1:07pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Learn how to take profit, and get your head out of your ass. I cannot be wiped out...I can lose on trades, I can even lose one of my accounts, but all of the money I have invested into these has been withdrawn and they are now trading profits.... Off of these, I continue to extract profit. Don't be a dipstick for the sake of being a dipstick...try applying thought to your voice.
You are very ignorant dude.I dont care if it works for you, if it does then its fine, good for you, but that doesnt mean that everyone who martingales will be a winner.I saw countless TE's which used martingale also on myfxbook there were plenty, live accounts wiped in less than a month, of course they dont brag about it, only you do, but if you martingale ,then eventually that wipe will come to you aswell, and then you will cry because you lost all your money
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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