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  • #361
  • Aug 14, 2014 10:59pm Aug 14, 2014 10:59pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} A real trader does not try to talk tall for what is basic. Support...Resistance. Risk Control. There is nothing else required for trading. All of this other stuff is what has gotten you into problems time and again. Stop trying to dazzle newbies and turn tactical into practical, if you have the capacity to do so. Good luck.
In case you are wondering, his tactical stuff is indeed practical. I had tested it and was inspired it by it to the point I too turned 'Wave Theory' into 'Wave Practical'.It's possible. Please consider the evidence and let go of dogma.
  • #362
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:01pm Aug 14, 2014 11:01pm
Quoting Relativity
{quote} In case you are wondering, his tactical stuff is indeed practical. I had tested it and was inspired it by it to the point I too turned 'Wave Theory' into 'Wave Practical'.It's possible. Please consider the evidence and let go of dogma.
To soften the tone a bit, I am more than willing to listen to new ideas. As far as your testing goes, what conditions and controls did you apply to your testing?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #363
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:10pm Aug 14, 2014 11:10pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} A real trader does not try to talk tall for what is basic.
You just demonstrated a nonsequitur reply as your underlying first cause, first premise. Therefore, no matter what you say next, it cannot possibly answer the question that was put before you.


Quoting jmn5611
Support...Resistance. Risk Control. There is nothing else required for trading.
You failed to answer the questions related to Support and Resistance above. So, why should I expect you to answer those questions now. Whose Support? Whose Resistance? How do you know that so-called Support or Resistance are not positioned at a major point of inflection in Market Phases 1 or 5? And, what do you do when the market comes crashing through your Support or Resistance during a transformation from Market Phase 2 to 1, or from 4 to 5?

If you don't understand the fundamentals of Market Phases and their respective Transformations, you are blowing in the wind trying to convince anyone that all you need to know is Support and Resistance. In which Time Frame is Support being invalidated? In which Time Frame is Resistance being invalidated. In which Time Frame is Support undergoing a Market Phase Transformation from 2 to 1, at the very same time that another Time Frame undergoes a Market Phase Transformation from 4 to 5? And, that is just the silly little tip of the iceberg for truly understanding Support and Resistance.

Quoting jmn5611
All of this other stuff is,,,
...the depth that you lack in your understanding of what you are doing and WHY you are doing it in the market. If you have no empirical evidence for WHY you are doing something, then you are doing nothing more but entering a position and crossing your fingers, my dear clueless one.

Quoting jmn5611
...what has gotten you into problems time and again. Stop trying to dazzle newbies and turn tactical into practical, if you have the capacity to do so. Good luck.
Can you name a problem that I've gotten myself into? Are did you pull that one straight out your ass yet again? Let's see. I trade on an institutional platform. I trade real interbank rates. I manage an 8 figure account across 7 major currency pairs day in and day out. I live where I want. I vacation where I want. I drive what I want. I fly what I want. My Wife is amazingly happy. I enjoy good health because I am NOT stressed out about the growth of my business. I run my trading like a business enterprise.

Explain to me yet again, exactly what problems I have created for myself? You would do well to have my "problems," kid.

If I were you (and I am so glad that I am not), I'd get my head out quick and start learning how to string together two lines on a chart.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #364
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:27pm Aug 14, 2014 11:27pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Without publishing that data for peer review, this is just one more empty post. Do you even know how good that data is? Especially from M1??
I do; I understand the problems as much as anyone who is willing to sit down and do the research. Read my thread and I hope you can see something;
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7675972
Along with this;
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...51#post7661851
You don't need to worry about me regarding peer review, thank you. I do publish my work on a private basis and selectively open to the public. Not everyone is my 'peer', as you should know.


Quoting jmn5611
{quote} To soften the tone a bit, I am more than willing to listen to new ideas. As far as your testing goes, what conditions and controls did you apply to your testing?
1st, read these 2 posts to understand what are TCD lines
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post7644822
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...33#post7676133

I did the simple and obvious things, almost like what Rand did, but also did frequency distribution statistics on such TCD crosses -> price movement.

I had an old thread back in BabyPips which I nuked after showing that TCDs map out market movement pretty clearly. What you can measure accurately, then you can also use accurately. I can dig up and update my older indicators to rerun the statistics if you don't mind. Just need some time. I wanted to return back to doing TCD stuff again anyway, since my own work is almost completed.
  • #365
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:28pm Aug 14, 2014 11:28pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} A real trader observes fundamentals and then looks for entries based on how prices respects support and resistance.
That's NOT an answer - that's a College Text Book Prelude. I don't want to hear what somebody told you at some $1,500 Boot Camp. I want to know what YOU have researched your damn self and what YOU have learned about the empirical nature of the markets and what THAT data tells you.

Did you think you could toss some lame Seminar Intro past me and get away with it?


Quoting jmn5611
A real trader controls risk.
False. A real Trader already knows that he's not in control of the markets. Thus, any real Trader would be a total FOOL trying to "control" risk, because a real Trader knows that risk can only be ACCOUNTED FOR AND MITIGATED. Furthermore, a really good Trader, has learned how to mitigate risk through filtering of empirical results from historical decisions. Thus, a real Trader, uses Models that LEARN an thus a real Trader, improves their overall accuracy to a specified target with a system that LEARNS from its failures.

I bet you think that because you read an economic report and study the fundamentals, that you somehow don't use a Trading System? This is the strong delusion running through the minds of so many blind fundamentalists. You don't even know what the term Trading System means. A system is technology and technology is Applied Information. Thus, anyone who takes input from the fundamentals an then turns that input into a trade decision, is doing the exact same thing that an automated Trading System does, Applying Information. The difference is that one system is empirically based, redundant, scalable, fault tolerant and error free in the execution of its underlying decision logic. The other system is wide open to emotional stress, misconceptions, misinterpretations, false calculations due to manual error and shifting frames of reference during the decision cycle. BOTH systems use an Algorithm for Decision Making, my dear clueless one. One is far less likely to produce errors in executed logic, while the other will struggle to remain consistent in its decision tree.

You need to go study the concept of Systems Theory, before you start debating me on this subject. You don't understand what you are saying, here.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #366
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:32pm Aug 14, 2014 11:32pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} You need to go study the concept of Systems Theory, before you start debating me on this subject. You don't understand what you are saying, here.
Actually I don't think he does (unless he declares it), because Systems Theory requires a strong background of Engineering or Information Technology as far as I know.
  • #367
  • Edited Aug 15, 2014 12:40am Aug 14, 2014 11:39pm | Edited Aug 15, 2014 12:40am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} A real trader does not try to talk tall for what is basic. Support...Resistance. Risk Control. There is nothing else required for trading. All of this other stuff is what has gotten you into problems time and again. Stop trying to dazzle newbies and turn tactical into practical, if you have the capacity to do so. Good luck.
I had to edit my post because after reading it, it was too harsh, even for you. I am not going to try to appeal to your basic reasoning, because you clearly have no sense or any respect for people who are interested in exploring out of the ordinary ways of looking at the world or trading.

You are either mentally retarded or emotionally needy, I suspect the latter. Simply stated, you are irrational, ignorant, arrogant, aggravating and a cockroach, many have told you to join the topic in an intelligent manner or go away.

Also I would appreciate if you would apologize for wasting part of my life reading your nonsense.

D o y o u g e t t h e p i c t u r e Forrest Gump? If not, cuz, I know you have a hard time comprehending things, GO THE FUCK AWAY!!!!!!!!

Have a nice day
  • #368
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:26am Aug 15, 2014 12:26am
is this funny rectangle too ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 85 KB
  • #369
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:27am Aug 15, 2014 12:27am
Fascinating.
... this whole thread and especially the last posts.

Check this out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phlogiston_theory

I am sure we are all smart enough to draw some analogy...

Personally, I can find funny patterns in any price move with my eyes closed. Just point me to a chart and I will throw a dart. look I just found a new pattern..
I am not saying this has no value (I love random patterns like everybody else)
I am saying there is nothing reliable.
  • #370
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:48am Aug 15, 2014 12:48am
Quoting Relativity
{quote} Actually I don't think he does (unless he declares it), because Systems Theory requires a strong background of Engineering or Information Technology as far as I know.

He can study the conceptual aspects of it and at least develop a sense of respect for integration, synthesis, dependency, transformations, signal processing, algorithmic logic, decision trees, inference, matriculation, etc., etc., etc. There are several good books out there that can help him in that regard. His problem is that he does not wish to understand that B2i is one of 100+ fully integrated indicators producing over 1,200 inputs to a homegrown neural net processor that uses decision algorithms (trade logic) to produce a single trade signal with a mathematical probability in the form of a percent (%) indicator.

He's way ahead of himself, too far behind this subject and way too worried about appearing smart, as opposed to actually being smart.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #371
  • Aug 15, 2014 12:59am Aug 15, 2014 12:59am
Quoting Mingary
...I am saying there is nothing reliable.
That's why you don't make trading decisions based on Wikipedia. You make trading decisions based on an empirical understanding of the market you engage. The question of whether or not any patterns exists, is answered in the empirical analysis of the data. You don't have to ask the question, if you study the data. The data TELLS you whether or not a pattern exists, how frequently it repeats and what its parameters look like.

No one needs to tell the empiricist - Hey, there goes a pattern! The empiricist was told about the pattern's existence when he/she studied the data. The data reveals itself. It is self evident. It will tell you whether or not there is something reliable or not. All you have to do is LEARN how to ask the data good questions. That is a skill that I simply cannot give you. You either have it or you don't.

Learn to question your data. Learn to talk to your data. Most importantly, learn to LISTEN to what your data has to tell you.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #372
  • Aug 15, 2014 1:01am Aug 15, 2014 1:01am
Quoting iDoubleStoch
Quoting jmn5611
A real trader controls risk.


False. A real Trader already knows that he's not in control of the markets. Thus, any real Trader would be a total FOOL trying to "control" risk, because a real Trader knows that risk can only be ACCOUNTED FOR AND MITIGATED. Furthermore, a really good Trader, has learned how to mitigate risk through filtering of empirical results from historical decisions. Thus, a real Trader, uses Models that LEARN an thus a real Trader,...

To put it another way then, a real trader controls risk.
  • #373
  • Aug 15, 2014 1:02am Aug 15, 2014 1:02am
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} That's why you don't make trading decisions based on Wikipedia. You make trading decisions based on an empirical understanding of the market you engage. The question of whether or not any patterns exists, is answered in the empirical analysis of the data. You don't have to ask the question, if you study the data. The data TELLS you whether or not a pattern exists, how frequently it repeats and what its parameters look like. No one needs to tell the empiricist - Hey, there goes a pattern! The empiricist was told about the pattern's existence...
Thank you. =)
  • #374
  • Aug 15, 2014 1:08am Aug 15, 2014 1:08am
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} That's why you don't make trading decisions based on Wikipedia. You make trading decisions based on an empirical understanding of the market you engage. The question of whether or not any patterns exists, is answered in the empirical analysis of the data. You don't have to ask the question, if you study the data. The data TELLS you whether or not a pattern exists, how frequently it repeats and what its parameters look like. No one needs to tell the empiricist - Hey, there goes a pattern! The empiricist was told about the pattern's existence...


You obviously missed the point regarding this reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phlogiston_theory


You can search and find patterns to your heart's content -- there are so many.. you will never ever find a pattern that is reliable.
Any pattern that can be found needs a framework of rules and exceptions to filter the good from the bad. Therefore it is a waste of time to look for patterns. This is what I call self-evident.
When you LISTEN to the data, what you hear is a lie. It is built this way. Once you understand this, you can move forward and make some real discoveries.
  • #375
  • Aug 15, 2014 1:30am Aug 15, 2014 1:30am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} To put it another way then, a real trader controls risk.

You cannot control risk. That's an illusion. You can mitigate risk in two basic ways: Money Management and Empirical Evidence.

http://i61.tinypic.com/vxevz4.jpg

27 top signals sorted and ranked after a sizable algorithm deciding who gets in the door and who sits on the sidelines waiting for the next signal generation period. 27 signals made the cut. After the ranking, the cream rose to the top along with its Risk Ratio. The lower the risk ratio the higher the probability for a successful trade outcome. Signal, Signal Probability (%) and its Risk Ratio are predicated not only on the current market factors used to produce the signal, but the signal historic performance under the same market conditions as well.

Those 27 are further filtered to the two signals with the highest historical accuracy to a specified target, the highest risk ratio, the lowest accuracy to a specified target and the lowest risk ratio. Those final four signals are then algorithmically filtered into the high sort signal and the low sort signal. The final signal is then selected by the system along with its probability for a successful outcome in % form. The singularity gets sent to the Trade Panel GUI where it is seen in a more user friendly manner with supporting real-time bells and whistles:

http://i57.tinypic.com/ke9onl.jpg

That is how I "mitigate" risk. It is also how I have redefined the very meaning of risk in my own trading. Risk Analysis is built into the core of the trading system. Any trading system that fails to account for risk in real-time, is not a real trading system - it is a Voting System. You can vote without accounting for risk - but you cannot trade that way.

Controlling risk in the currency market is a pipe dream. Even a Central Bank can only "manipulate" a currency for just so long before it has to give up and allow the currency to go freely on its way - just ask the Bank of Japan. That is why I like the real Interbank as opposed to the equity markets. We do not control the market, but we can study it to learn about its patterns.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #376
  • Edited 1:58am Aug 15, 2014 1:41am | Edited 1:58am
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} You cannot control risk. That's an illusion. You can mitigate risk in two basic ways: Money Management and Empirical Evidence. {image} 27 top signals sorted and ranked after a sizable algorithm deciding who gets in the door and who sits on the sidelines waiting for the next signal generation period. 27 signals made the cut. After the ranking, the cream rose to the top along with its Risk Ratio. The lower the risk ratio the higher the probability for a successful trade outcome. Signal, Signal Probability (%) and its Risk Ratio are predicated...
ok fine, let's get the correct semantic.

if some poor misinformed, inexperienced trader decides to put in a 20 pip stop loss on every trade; is he/she not trying to mitigate (reduce, lessen, alleviate) risk?

.. and in doing so; controlling how much can be lost? And therefore controlling (restraining, limiting, constraining) the risk ?

(BTW I am not saying this is a good idea; using a stop loss means it takes a bit longer to lose all the account)
  • #377
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:02am Aug 15, 2014 2:02am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} You obviously missed the point regarding this reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phlogiston_theory You can search and find patterns to your heart's content -- there are so many.. you will never ever find a pattern that is reliable. Any pattern that can be found needs a framework of rules and exceptions to filter the good from the bad. Therefore it is a waste of time to look for patterns. This is what I call self-evident. When you LISTEN to the data, what you hear is a lie. It is built this way. Once you understand this, you...

The % values under each signal is its actual Accuracy Rating for the past 280 days. It is a 280 Test. So, when you say that the data lies to you, maybe you should start evaluating the right kind of data. A signal that is accurate for 280 days, is hardly something wish to move forward from, so I can start guessing about what happens next in the market.

This system is far beyond where you've actually been, that you don't even know how to react to it when you see it.

Here's another type of pattern:
http://i61.tinypic.com/2921b9w.jpg

Of course, these things don't exist and they are all just meaningless. Well, this little gem tells me what the real "trend" is doing underneath all that fluff you hear about in the news and calculate with a moving average indicator. No MA can do what this "trend indicator" can do. This underlying module is composed of several different indicators working together in a nicely balanced synergy at points of integration that make it far better than any other "trend" indicator I have ever witnessed.

You will notice that this module looks at the most relevant time frames and performs calculations the yield a real-time transformation on the underlying dynamics within the so-called "trend." So, I get to see high probability conditions under which the trend is most likely to either change or continue. I get all five (5) market phases from this module and all the transformations from one phase to the next - all in real-time.

What this tells me is that there really is no such thing as the "trend" in real terms. There are underlying price Trajectories and price Vectors within the market in varying time frames. The off-sets between those time frames are what gives the market its relative price volatility.

This module is pattern based and it takes input from its own historical database - as it continues to learn about the market in ways that simply cannot be replicated manually by the human brain in real-time. You could say that this module is a Market Behavioral Learning Algorithm and do so, would be pretty much spot on because that is exactly what it does. There are lots of calculations feeding into this one module from other areas within the Engine that you do not see in this picture.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #378
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:13am Aug 15, 2014 2:13am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} ok fine, let's get the correct semantic. if some poor misinformed, inexperienced trader decides to put in a 20 pip stop loss on every trade; is he/she not trying to mitigate (reduce, lessen, alleviate) risk? .. and in doing so; controlling how much can be lost?
No. They are actually increasing risk, not mitigating and most definitely not controlling it.

Quoting Mingary
And therefore controlling (restraining, limiting, constraining) the risk ? (BTW I am not saying this is a good idea; using a stop loss means it takes a bit longer to lose all the account)
No. You cannot control anything unless you ARE the market. I am not big enough to set prices, nor move prices to where I want them. Therefore, I have to find another way to skin the cat and my way is through empirical analysis of market data and the location of high probability patterns that I can take advantage of by placing my capital in the way of a Trajectory or Vector that is heading to a destination that contains a high probability for being a printed price point at some "T" in the short-term future.

That's how I roll. A data driven empiricist. All fundamental events are already accounted for in the data. Why guess about them - my work includes all outcomes from fundamentals.

Recognizing trade worthy patterns in the currency market is not rocket science. Developing a good supporting system that gives you good entry and exit levels relative to those patterns, just might be the closest thing to rocket science I've ever compiled.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #379
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:17am Aug 15, 2014 2:17am
Goodnight and Happy New Year to all. This will be my last post here for this year. 2015 awaits. I'll have to figure out which indicator to talk about then, but I'll deal with that when the time comes. Until then. Trade wisely and get to know your market data.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #380
  • Aug 15, 2014 2:18am Aug 15, 2014 2:18am
Quoting iDoubleStoch
Goodnight and Happy New Year to all. This will be my last post here for this year. 2015 awaits. I'll have to figure out which indicator to talk about then, but I'll deal with that when the time comes. Until then. Trade wisely and get to know your market data.
=) See you next year!
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