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Martingaling - Looks so good until the inevitable

  • #21
  • Aug 14, 2014 8:33pm Aug 14, 2014 8:33pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Oh oh, sounds like Hayseed has thrown the glove down and is going to code a Martingale EA to test the proposition ... .
Funny...for shits n giggles, I am actually running a cash payout contest and we are testing a Month with a $250 start...LINK

Though any strategy is welcome, the few friends that are and have been playing are all working with our select Martingale breed of trading.

Next month I was going to Roll back to $200...but maybe going for the first to reach 1000 trades could be an interesting clause...

The number of trades is really moot...but adding the dynamic factor of the length of time to take a 1000 trades vs a static time in days on the deal could lead to some interesting results.



We could put this theory to test.

Muwahahahhahah
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #22
  • Aug 14, 2014 8:39pm Aug 14, 2014 8:39pm
Quoting Razor_trader
{quote} Not true. Up until a recent run of NZD/USD longs which have continued to fall, the trader had a total closed position profit of close to $125,000. They have also over time taken regular withdrawals and from the info I can see, they have also successfully sold their signals to a tune of over 900k. Average monthly gains of 15-20% for the past 18 months to end of June. Over this time there was not a single losing month, the worst month being a positive 11.01%. Then in July as mentioned they enter a few positions near the top of NZD/USD and...
I tried to find this signal (just for kicks) ... Do you have the link (or the name of the signal)?

Thanks.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #23
  • Aug 14, 2014 8:58pm Aug 14, 2014 8:58pm
This is actually 3 Martingale EAs (freeware)testing on the same $500 start....



Details
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1000.png Size: 54 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #24
  • Aug 14, 2014 9:02pm Aug 14, 2014 9:02pm
Quoting Magix
This is actually 3 Martingale EAs (freeware)testing on the same $500 start.... Details {image}
Awesome. Thanks, man.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #25
  • Aug 14, 2014 9:10pm Aug 14, 2014 9:10pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Oh oh, sounds like Hayseed has thrown the glove down and is going to code a Martingale EA to test the proposition ... .
//-----


//-----

hey zebra..... no.... gloves weren't being thrown down..... but i did deposit 2000 in one of my spare ibfx mini's a few minutes ago..... just n case.........

i've ran, in live accounts, a wide variety of martingales for close to 10 years and have never blown an account.... it was only to study them for their strengths and weakness's or to improve them if possible..... it is possible.....

the fact that i do not run any sort of lot multiple schemes, martingale, in my main accounts is only because that style trading just does not appeal to me....

no real money is made in the lower stages in the lots progression..... the real money is made in the higher stages where your flirting with death..... flirting with death does not appeal to me.......

now if someone wants to say i can't make 1000% a month, i'll agree there's no way........ but to say i'll blow my account in less than 1000 trades..... that's a different story.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #26
  • Aug 14, 2014 9:18pm Aug 14, 2014 9:18pm
Quoting hayseed
but i did deposit 2000 in one of my spare ibfx mini's a few minutes ago.....h
I've pulled the private settings off my TE...HERE

I'm in at $500.

This is the lowest of the real cash accounts that I am testing on automated, martingale strategies. Put up for very specific reasons, in that most that say something cannot be done, don't have enough information to qualify their statements.

Working with various strategies, I am willing to allow this account to push 46% in DD...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #27
  • Aug 14, 2014 9:23pm Aug 14, 2014 9:23pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- //----- hey zebra..... no.... gloves weren't being thrown down..... but i did deposit 2000 in one of my spare ibfx mini's a few minutes ago..... just n case......... i've ran, in live accounts, a wide variety of martingales for close to 10 years and have never blown an account.... it was only to study them for their strengths and weakness's or to improve them if possible..... it is possible..... the fact that i do not run any sort of lot multiple schemes, martingale, in my main accounts is only because that style trading...
I also am not a "flirting with death" type of trader ... . and I could see that -- were I to trade this way, I'd be quickly at the upper limit of what I want to expose at one time, especially were I to only have something like $1,000 to start with and a 50:1 account in which the smallest lot you could trade was 1K. The progression would be 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, at which point your margin would be maxed. Naturally, you'll survive a bunch of progressions before that occurs if you know how to call direction of trade fairly consistently or can figure out whether a pair is ranging or trending.

That being said, I think that some brokers (Oanda, I think) let you trade single "units" of currency, which would allow you to trade such a system with smaller "lots" to higher progressions, but still ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #28
  • Aug 14, 2014 9:25pm Aug 14, 2014 9:25pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} I've pulled the private settings off my TE...HERE I'm in at $500. This is the lowest of the real cash accounts that I am testing on automated, martingale strategies. Put up for very specific reasons, in that most that say something cannot be done, don't have enough information to qualify their statements. Working with various strategies, I am willing to allow this account to push 46% in DD...
I'd have to wear a diaper to do 46%, since I'd probably be constantly shitting my pants ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #29
  • Aug 14, 2014 9:39pm Aug 14, 2014 9:39pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I'd have to wear a diaper to do 46%, since I'd probably be constantly shitting my pants ... .
Ya see...that's the thing...

Because of my testing on these, I have equated 46% by way of what it has shown in past, live forward test results only....

If I wanted to reduce this risk, I would increase the account size.

Again, this account was set up to prove a point. It has served many purposes, but the primary point is that a Martingale strategy can be applied to an account with lower than a $10k start.

I have been working and growing with a small group of friends over the last couple years on these and have seen accounts double, triple and quadruple over the course of a year, real live accounts.

Seeing what others have to say is both amusing and frustrating.

Amusing from the standpoint that the ignorance applied is comical.
Frustrating from the standpoint of how misinformation is spread by people who clearly have no idea what they are talking about.

From not only using automated strategies, but also as they apply from a cost averaging standpoint.

Yes, there is risk...if you are trading anything other than a demo account, there is risk...but is it really more than would be present in manual trading???

And this is where I have to disagree with Hanover...an EA is no different than the application of an indicator...it is an available tool that has both risk and reward assigned. These can accelerate learning the market through various optics from strategy in triggering to application of cost average solutions...not being lazy.

They can be used for both learning and earning.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #30
  • Aug 14, 2014 10:00pm Aug 14, 2014 10:00pm
I don't agree with doubling positions but I do agree with building a contrarian position steadily, example:

My style is to calculate reversal targets.

I track and keep up with short reversal targets and long reversal targets on a pair.

Because of this work, I have a keen sense of where I should consider shorting and where I should consider longing. Does it work? well, I think my trade explorer says so?

At this moment, the long target range on the AUD/USD I have is 119 pips "tall" across 12 targets. So, I'll plan my largest short trade at the top target and at that point have a maximum margin usage I'm comfortable with. It's very rare for the market to move to that extreme level, so, I'm usually watching carefully to add a stronger position if needed according to my calcs...

Because of the variance in lot size building the position, I arrive at a more advantageous average entry.

Happy to answer questions if this doesn't make sense...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #31
  • Aug 14, 2014 10:25pm Aug 14, 2014 10:25pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
I don't agree with doubling positions but I do agree with building a contrarian position steadily, example: My style is to calculate reversal targets. I track and keep up with short reversal targets and long reversal targets on a pair.
This too is something that I have put to test as a part of a full test group on strategies, by way of dynamic ranges rather than hard stop calculated levels.
HERE

Though the trades on this account are taken by way of trigger, they are stopped in profit by way of trail.

This strategy is more of a millipede and never changes lot sizes, is another methodology that can be applied.

True martingales are a double down...but that's not to say that the idea of cost averaging isn't running these same principles. There really are more than one way to skin a cat...a lot of what are dictated as hard and fast market trade rules, are pure bullshit and myth.

Great post, VA.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #32
  • Aug 14, 2014 10:44pm Aug 14, 2014 10:44pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Ya see...that's the thing... Because of my testing on these, I have equated 46% by way of what it has shown in past, live forward test results only.... If I wanted to reduce this risk, I would increase the account size. Again, this account was set up to prove a point. It has served many purposes, but the primary point is that a Martingale strategy can be applied to an account with lower than a $10k start. I have been working and growing with a small group of friends over the last couple years on these and have seen accounts double, triple...
This information is probably my greatest debt to you, Magix. You inspired me to learn how to code EA's. And you are quite right. The EA is an amazing tool to help learn quickly what works in a market or not. I thank you for that.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #33
  • Aug 14, 2014 10:51pm Aug 14, 2014 10:51pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} This too is something that I have put to test as a part of a full test group on strategies, by way of dynamic ranges rather than hard stop calculated levels. HERE Though the trades on this account are taken by way of trigger, they are stopped in profit by way of trail. This strategy is more of a millipede and never changes lot sizes, is another methodology that can be applied. True martingales are a double down...but that's not to say that the idea of cost...
That's a pretty sweet "curve" on that one...when that starts compounding I bet it's a sight to behold...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #34
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:01pm Aug 14, 2014 11:01pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} That's a pretty sweet "curve" on that one...when that starts compounding I bet it's a sight to behold...
It was jmn who got me looking at the application of a millipede strategy.

Because of the grid and dynamic trigger ranges that I currently work with, the idea seemed to be a great fit for marrying the 2 ideas together.

This one in test, is on the M5 charts...I could keep this a little tighter for profit and equity growth by allowing a longer time frame...additionally, if I wanted to manually close trades, I could keep the risks reduced as well.

Application even on an increasing lot size cost averaging, looks a lot better over the longer time frames.

One of our test groups is running an H1H4 comparative triggering with increasing lot sizes...though this account hasn't actually closed a trade yet, the idea seems to work out very well....

HERE

I think Thodie has another one from this same test group on his TE.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #35
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:03pm Aug 14, 2014 11:03pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- hey proximus...... so, to put this simply..... are you saying i can not with a 1000$ account employing a single martingale strategy last more than 1000 trades.....h
More or less, maybe in the markets you can last longer since you can delay the inevitable by trading consolidations, small spread,etc

But the fact is fact it will come sooner than later, and it will mostly wipe out the entire account, so it doesnt matter if its 1000 or 2000 trades, it will wipe the account, and the more money that account has accumulated the more painful will be the wipe.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #36
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:07pm Aug 14, 2014 11:07pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} It was jmn who got me looking at the application of a millipede strategy. Because of the grid and dynamic trigger ranges that I currently work with, the idea seemed to be a great fit for marrying the 2 ideas together. This one in test, is on the M5 charts...I could keep this a little tighter for profit and equity growth by allowing a longer time frame...additionally, if I wanted to manually close trades, I could keep the risks reduced as well. Application even on an increasing lot size cost averaging, looks a lot better over the longer time...
Funny you should mention that. I just went back to millipeding because I realized that there are some serious drawbacks to how humans trade. Needing sleep is one of them. Living in the states is tough if you really want to trade fx. You almost HAVE to learn to code. I think I have also failed to mention that Thodie has given me the encouragement and pointed me in some good directions. So a public thanks to Thodie. 7 more days and I will be ready Magix. Just one or two more bugs to iron out.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #37
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:07pm Aug 14, 2014 11:07pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} This information is probably my greatest debt to you, Magix. You inspired me to learn how to code EA's. And you are quite right. The EA is an amazing tool to help learn quickly what works in a market or not. I thank you for that.
Admittedly, when I first started looking at EAs, it was under the idea of generating a second income...(being lazy)

Set and forget!!

Truth is, there is still a lot of information that one has to process before you can ever get close to this idea, and while you are chipping away at that learning curve, you get to understand so much more about market.

It is finding that one piece of information or person that can help get these to make sense that makes all of the difference...and using these as a hobby has increased my perspective on markets, tremendously!

I still trade live..but love having a few other accounts that continue to just steadily build...

Problem with this is...you are now hooked!

Trading can be an addiction...working with these equally...combine the 2 and you just may never see the sunlight again, without use of a window.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #38
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:09pm Aug 14, 2014 11:09pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} More or less, maybe in the markets you can last longer since you can delay the inevitable by trading consolidations, small spread,etc But the fact is fact it will come sooner than later, and it will mostly wipe out the entire account, so it doesnt matter if its 1000 or 2000 trades, it will wipe the account, and the more money that account has accumulated the more painful will be the wipe.

This is a perfect example of a comment that is both hilarious and frustrating...

Still talking out of your ass, prox?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #39
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:16pm Aug 14, 2014 11:16pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} This is a perfect example of a comment that is both hilarious and frustrating... Still talking out of your ass, prox?
Learn how probability distributions work and then we talk. By 1000 trades i meant in average, you can survive 1 million trades if you are lucky, i don care, that doesnt mean that all traders can.More often than not martingaling traders wake up with their account gone rather than with 1 million dollar and a Ferrari next to them
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #40
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:18pm Aug 14, 2014 11:18pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Learn how probability distributions work and then we talk. By 1000 trades i meant in average, you can survive 1 million trades if you are lucky, i don care, that doesnt mean that all traders can.More often than not martingaling traders wake up with their account gone rather than with 1 million dollar and a Ferrari next to them

Learn how to take profit, and get your head out of your ass.

I cannot be wiped out...I can lose on trades, I can even lose one of my accounts, but all of the money I have invested into these has been withdrawn and they are now trading profits....

Off of these, I continue to extract profit.

Don't be a dipstick for the sake of being a dipstick...try applying thought to your voice.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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