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Let's build together a system which makes 1000%/month

  • #21
  • Aug 13, 2014 1:44pm Aug 13, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting Adal
{quote} It doesn't matter. I can show it with 12 digits - 36.004195844334. The value doesn't change. The more digits you have, the less each pip will be worth. So 1 pip on my broker where USD/RUB has 3 digits is worth 100 pips of your broker were you have 5 digits. So your 2000 pips per day is actually 20 pips per day on my broker. What is the spread of USD/RUB on your broker? On mine is 4 pips, so I would guess on yours is 400 pips. In that case your 2000 pips per day is actually just 5 spreads, like 10 pips on EUR/USD.
duh!
  • #22
  • Aug 13, 2014 3:08pm Aug 13, 2014 3:08pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Ok you are right i just cheked, 0.01 lot on USD/RUB needs 3.77 margin, whereas on EUR/USD it needs 12, but still if you multiply it thats 4x the margin, and still the EUR/USD has an ATR of 0.0012 while the USD/RUB has 0.956 So if we divide the USD/RUB daily volatility by 3.18 (12/3.77) it still gives us an average range of 0.30 which is like 3006 pip daily volatility for 1 margin unit, whereas the EUR/USD gives us only 12 pip daily volatility. Now this can be done on a bigger sample but the fact is that doesnt matter how you calculate the...
For the sake of clarity, it is best to understand this matter by using the industry standard of 100k US lots (NOT micro or mini) that all professional traders and websites use by default.

Margins should not factor into the discussion, as they are dynamic based upon how much leverage your broker gives you. Usually 50:1 (US) up to 400:1 or more. Years ago there were brokerages offering 4000:1! Just look at the ADR and pip value based upon one standard lot and you will see that the *RUB pairs are not the magic bullet(edge)you are looking for...but keep searching, it took me 10k+ hours to finally find my "holy grail."

A couple of useful websites for above calculations:
http://www.forexrazor.com/en-us/tool...alculator.aspx
http://www.forexticket.us/en/tools/02-01-volatility
  • #23
  • Aug 13, 2014 3:19pm Aug 13, 2014 3:19pm
First I would suggest outlining paarameters and definitions around which the system will be built. Lets define for ourselves...

1. Timeframe of Interest

2. Trend

3. Cycles

4. Momentum

5. Supp/Resistance

6. Risk Tolerance

7. etc...(currency strength analysis, volume,etc, etc, etc)
  • #24
  • Aug 13, 2014 3:22pm Aug 13, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Ok Vigovski, please share that MTS system and i will look into it, also if anyone else has some ideas dont be afraid to share it
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post7570571 here
Neural Network Algorithm and Econophysics
  • #25
  • Aug 13, 2014 3:32pm Aug 13, 2014 3:32pm
Stupidest thing I've ever heard. Period. You will never make 1000% per month with such low DD... Be realistic and stop trying to find a holy grail, they don't exist
Be greedy when the market is fearful, be fearful when the market is greedy
  • #26
  • Aug 13, 2014 3:40pm Aug 13, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting Green_pips
Stupidest thing I've ever heard. Period. You will never make 1000% per month with such low DD... Be realistic and stop trying to find a holy grail, they don't exist
There is a saying that ...aim for the stars, you'll probably miss...and land on the moon! Either way, you end up defeating gravity!
  • #27
  • Aug 13, 2014 3:55pm Aug 13, 2014 3:55pm
Quoting LITEchild
First I would suggest outlining paarameters and definitions around which the system will be built. Lets define for ourselves... 1. Timeframe of Interest 2. Trend 3. Cycles 4. Momentum 5. Supp/Resistance 6. Risk Tolerance 7. etc...(currency strength analysis, volume,etc, etc, etc)
1) Not as much timeframe, more as trade duration, for which i think intraday or if too hard then intraweek would be good

2) Definitely trend follower, in most cases, but if a news report comes out too negative then it could be against trend aswell, but only if it has news support, random whipsaws are not reliable

3),4) I think you refer to trader sentiment here, and for that there are many sentiment indicators:
http://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php

5) Yes, probably wait for pullback to a S/R zone and then trade in the direction of the trend

6) Not more than 8% of the account balance

Currency strength is a good measurement in conjunction with trader sentiment & long term economic picture of the 2 country

We also need a long term bias to adjust our positions accordingly, and our STOPLOSS aswell.

Ok these are my ideas, if anyone wishes to comment it?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #28
  • Aug 13, 2014 4:30pm Aug 13, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} 1) Not as much timeframe, more as trade duration, for which i think intraday or if too hard then intraweek would be good 2) Definitely trend follower, in most cases, but if a news report comes out too negative then it could be against trend aswell, but only if it has news support, random whipsaws are not reliable 3),4) I think you refer to trader sentiment here, and for that there are many sentiment indicators: http://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php 5) Yes, probably wait for pullback to a S/R zone and then trade in the direction...
hay bro

just my opinion for your making sys..

u can trade the 4hr/one hr same trend and entry with the 15 min momentum(again with the same trend)so u will get earlier entries with nice RR 2/3:1

GL on that

Eitan.
when GOD brings you a challenge he also gives you the power to deal with it
  • #29
  • Aug 13, 2014 5:42pm Aug 13, 2014 5:42pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} 1) Not as much timeframe, more as trade duration, for which i think intraday or if too hard then intraweek would be good 2) Definitely trend follower, in most cases, but if a news report comes out too negative then it could be against trend aswell, but only if it has news support, random whipsaws are not reliable 3),4) I think you refer to trader sentiment here, and for that there are many sentiment indicators: http://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php 5) Yes, probably wait for pullback to a S/R zone and then trade in the direction...
1. Timeframe.....In line with our set goals, timeframe, for me, becomes very relevant for intraday HighFrequencyTrading with respect to high R:R. For MT4 that implies M1 is ideal. (in this case no measurement requirements naturally).

2. Trend...In that case a form of measurement for the strength and direction of the trend of interest with determined critical threshold indices(MAs, CCI, HTF Trend, etc, etc)

3. Cycles could be temporary trader sentiments i guess. This is simply the breathing in and out with respect to the Timeframe and Trend established according to our initial definitions.( measurement requirements could be Stochs, RSI, or simply PA swing highs, lows(ZZs anyone?).

4. Momentum...This could involve considering trading in line with an already established High Timeframe Momentum-Cycle, or ignoring that, and simply considering momentum(or strong impulse) moves on our TFs of interest.

5. S/R - When all the above criteria are put into perspective then the S/R of interest(which we would expect to be fully respected) naturally comes into play.

6. Risk Tolerance should probably be done with regards to how many losing trades we can realistically(within the limits of established system probabilities) expect to have in a row. For instance, if it's feasible to expect 10 or more losing trades in a row(depending on %probabilities of course), risking 8% per trade might not be such a good idea then would it?

7. For me Currency Strength Analysis is best relevant for siphoning out a pair of interest, then other trade criterias from 1 - 6 can be applied into the mix to give the highest probability trade across 28(21?) pairs at any given time.

Attached is a sample of one of my strategies as an example. Feel free to tweek or use as a template for any further enhancements we may deem fit. Of course there are are other 'considerations' necessary that are not included on the chart, but I think it could be a good starting point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1.png Size: 49 KB
  • #30
  • Aug 13, 2014 6:10pm Aug 13, 2014 6:10pm
Quoting eitan1010
{quote} hay bro just my opinion for your making sys.. u can trade the 4hr/one hr same trend and entry with the 15 min momentum(again with the same trend)so u will get earlier entries with nice RR 2/3:1 GL on that Eitan.
Well yes, but i`m looking for buying the lows, if we would trade the momentum then we miss some pips and distort the RR as we need bigger stoploss.

I am looking more for tehniques where we can have 3x reward to risk and the SL to be tight.The only way to do that is to buy at the end of the low and sell at the end of the high.

Indicators dont really signals this, so either cheking recent strong S/R zones or the Oanda orderbook to find these HOTZONES
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/hi...al-open-orders

So this way we can trade huge lot size and have that 8% risk, while the profit/trade could be 30-40%
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #31
  • Aug 13, 2014 6:23pm Aug 13, 2014 6:23pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} 1. Timeframe.....In line with our set goals, timeframe, for me, becomes very relevant for intraday HighFrequencyTrading with respect to high R:R. For MT4 that implies M1 is ideal. (in this case no measurement requirements naturally). 2. Trend...In that case a form of measurement for the strength and direction of the trend of interest with determined critical threshold indices(MAs, CCI, HTF Trend, etc, etc) 3. Cycles could be temporary trader sentiments i guess. This is simply the breathing in and out with respect to the Timeframe and Trend...
1) Well yes, if we trade intraday than M1 chart seems to be the best as it shows more clearly the orderflow.
As for the trade duration that depends on the trend strength.

In case of intraweek, i use H1 and H4

2) I think the intraday trend is mostly related to a mix of trader sentiment & stock indices & local bond prices.If there is a huge buy on all of those markets, it usually relates to forex too.It can be a leading indicators.
Sorry but i dont really like lagging ones, i`m looking for leading

3) Yeah, i think pivots and S/R zones are a key element here

4) I would watch the event calendar for this, nothing is a better momentum bringer than some better or worse than expected news

6) Obviously we are looking for high probability setups, there are plenty of pairs to choose from, no reason to limit ourselves to the majors.

But we need to establish either we go with Reward>Risk setup and have a smaller lot but had infrequent and accurate trades OR

Reward<=Risk with even smaller lot size and very frequent but inaccurate trades.

I prefer the first one, because the second one could be an agressive scalper and brokers dont like that

7) Here are some links of trader sentiment sites:
http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios#
http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...tch/sentiment/
http://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php (scroll to the bottom of the page)

Also COT report chart

http://www.timingcharts.com/

These sites will give you an insight into the short & long term sentiment of some traders.Also shows currency strength, which should be used in conjunction with our trading system
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #32
  • Aug 13, 2014 7:45pm Aug 13, 2014 7:45pm
Why you making this so complicated? You wanna make a lot of money then just buy US index's not CFDs because they expire after certain time. It goes down, buy more, we get a 'crash' , buy more. The problem is not that you wont make a lot of money but you will be take profit when you should be compounding it. If you can hold out and compound an account without withdrawing it at all or touching it then you will get rich in no time. Shit changes once you start making big money and you want to buy things, trust me. US index only going up as long as we are alive on this planet.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #33
  • Aug 13, 2014 9:09pm Aug 13, 2014 9:09pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} 1) Well yes, if we trade intraday than M1 chart seems to be the best as it shows more clearly the orderflow. As for the trade duration that depends on the trend strength. In case of intraweek, i use H1 and H4 2) I think the intraday trend is mostly related to a mix of trader sentiment & stock indices & local bond prices.If there is a huge buy on all of those markets, it usually relates to forex too.It can be a leading indicators. Sorry but i dont really like lagging ones, i`m looking for leading 3) Yeah, i think pivots and S/R zones are...
1) Agreed. Trade duration is directly proportional to exit strategy. If it is based on R:R, then it's just sit tight and wait(other trade conditions remaining valid of course).

2) I'm still yet to see any proof that trade setups suggested by trader sentiment, stock indices, local bond prices, etc, are not similarly reflected in charts, indicators and price action. Just different ways of doing the same thing in my opinion.

3) Agreed.

4) Agreed. Though, I still believe 'proper' chart reads and 'proper' indicator use can still mitigate even against these.

6) Agreed.

7) Same as 2). Agreed on CSM reads.
  • #34
  • Aug 14, 2014 10:48am Aug 14, 2014 10:48am
Quoting Rtm
Why you making this so complicated? You wanna make a lot of money then just buy US index's not CFDs because they expire after certain time. It goes down, buy more, we get a 'crash' , buy more. The problem is not that you wont make a lot of money but you will be take profit when you should be compounding it. If you can hold out and compound an account without withdrawing it at all or touching it then you will get rich in no time. Shit changes once you start making big money and you want to buy things, trust me. US index only going up as long as we...
I thought about S&P 500 trading or atleast the e-mini, but the problem i have with indices is that it has too low volatility, i mean obviously its upward biased, unless there is another crash, which is unlikely, crashes happen at about 7-8 year interval, so we could say that the indexes will go up for atleast another 4 years, but the problem is that its too tied to the economy.

A few amateur companies go down and it could dip the index, it needs a big SL to survive that, also its not always clear, if i would want to make some pips without excessive risk, then either i set a big SL or and small lot size and wait a lot of time to move, in some cases it needs months to move big and clear moves.

Also there is the trading hours problem,and many more, but i`m still thinking about it.

I`m just more confortable with FX trading for now, central banks protect currencies more than other assets, just look at the flash crash, it could have wiped your whole account before the SL gets hit due to slippage, so i find more risk in indices than FX, which is weird but due to HFT idiots, its true

You know the bigger the market the less risky, but the harder to predict.

FOREX is the largest market so no flash crash will happen here
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #35
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:00am Aug 14, 2014 11:00am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} 1) Agreed. Trade duration is directly proportional to exit strategy. If it is based on R:R, then it's just sit tight and wait(other trade conditions remaining valid of course). 2) I'm still yet to see any proof that trade setups suggested by trader sentiment, stock indices, local bond prices, etc, are not similarly reflected in charts, indicators and price action. Just different ways of doing the same thing in my opinion. 3) Agreed. 4) Agreed. Though, I still believe 'proper' chart reads and 'proper' indicator use can still mitigate even...

2) They do 100% certainly, the problem is that not always they are leading indicators, sometimes the move happens first on FX and later on other markets.

But if we follow all major markets for example for EUR/USD the S&P 500 and STOXX EUROPE 600 indices, which also shows the economic condition of the EU zone and US, if a big move happens on either of them and it didnt happened yet on EUR/USD, it is more likely than not that it will happen on EUR/USD aswell

Its also true vice-versa.It gives us nice arbitrage opportunities.

Ok so i`m going to create a poll, and we shall vote on the strategy ok?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #36
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:40am Aug 14, 2014 11:40am
POLL IS CREATED (page 1), PLEASE VOTE ON THE SYSTEM TYPE!

You can select multiple choices, because there are more categories on which to vote, so please only vote 1 for each question, for example:

Timeframe/Duration: INTRA-DAY

Timeframe/Duration: INTRA-WEEK

This is 1 question, either select intra-day or intra-week, which one you prefer, but dont select both.

So please vote as you see fit this system to be, and then after enough votes are collected we can build the system then

Also previous poll was 50%-50% before i deleted it, so half of the people think 1000%/month is possible and half think its not, so there is still optimism here, which is nice
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #37
  • Aug 14, 2014 1:23pm Aug 14, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting lcast
Hi Prox, hehehehe, if you want to build a Trading-System for the "Long-run" try at best 100% a Year, itīs not easy, believe me Anyway, good luck, maybe I'll make some suggestions.
Same here and to come up with a system that does this, would gladly look into it and on the plus side, this thread ain't titled the "holy grail knockoff.."
  • #38
  • Aug 14, 2014 1:39pm Aug 14, 2014 1:39pm
Ok, the way I see it:

1 000 % / 20 days = 50 % a day

50 % / 25 pairs = 2 % per pair

1st day: 1 000 $ * 50 % = 500 $

500 $ / 25 pairs = 20 $ per pair

Since trading multiple pairs the margin requirement would be huge if trying to trade 1 mini lot per pair or (10 000), therefore micro lots are the only available option. In that case to make 20 $ a pair a system would need to generate a 200 pip profit per pair.

Margin: 25 pairs * 0.01 = 0.25 lots

On 1:50 leverage 0.25 lots would need around 830 $ of total margin (assuming 180 000$ per standard lot, GBP pairs require highest margin)

On 1:100 margin would be half of above mentioned = 415$

1:200 = 208 $

1:400 = 104 $

The only problem I see here is generating 200 pips/pair... If reducing the pairs drastically to only 4 would translate to 125$ per pair 0.4 lots of margin which is a bit higher and 125 pips per pair.

If working with 1 pair only, with 0.1 lot would need 500 pips per day. The initial margin is rather low, but we do what we can with what we have

Hmmm, gold is rather volatile..it could get you that 500$ starting dollars if the system is good and can ride the waves...
  • #39
  • Aug 14, 2014 1:50pm Aug 14, 2014 1:50pm
Quoting merquise
Ok, the way I see it: 1 000 % / 20 days = 50 % a day 50 % / 25 pairs = 2 % per pair 1st day: 1 000 $ * 50 % = 500 $ 500 $ / 25 pairs = 20 $ per pair Since trading multiple pairs the margin requirement would be huge if trying to trade 1 mini lot per pair or (10 000), therefore micro lots are the only available option. In that case to make 20 $ a pair a system would need to generate a 200 pip profit per pair. Margin: 25 pairs * 0.01 = 0.25 lots On 1:50 leverage 0.25 lots would need around 830 $ of total margin (assuming 180 000$ per standard lot,...
1000%/month is just over 11%/day compounded assuming 22 trading days
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #40
  • Aug 14, 2014 2:00pm Aug 14, 2014 2:00pm
Heh, didn't thought of compounding

In that case 11% on 25 pairs is quite achievable
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