Systematic observations I wish I made when I was a rookie

Current E/U M15. 2 to 3 days of price bars. Envelope to wide to show up.

Very good example. Here you go.

Homage goes out to Linuxtroll, 4XQ, SKFX, Fibonacci himself and the Guppy traders. I LOVE YOU ALL!



So the thought is that the sell (or buy) move makes the EMAs spread out of course. What we want to do is sell, because thats the "trend", but we dont sell when the selling is strong, because thats too late. We sell instead when the buying counter move has been exahausted. And these spots are indicated with the red line. And i would not be afraid to have 4-5 positions. The problem is just NOT to get caught in the reverse. The reverse often looks like price goes into the EMAs but dont come out. If that happens it can be the right time to close trades in losses. Losses are a part of it, nothing strange about that so long as you have a good solid way to trade.

Usually dont sell in a high strength buy, dont buy in a high strength sell. I never try to get in on a move thats already happening, thats too late, the trade should already be in place, and it CAN be done. Like now for instance, i dont buy E/U, not since the beginning of July, since we have been going steadily downhill. I cant for the life of me understand why most people on FF are buying, but i guess thats their problem.

Here is a variation of the thoughts above. Ive been playing around for these kinds of ideas for a couple of years. This is for E/U M5. Explanation in the picture.





Remember: Its just a tool, like a hammer. You need to get experience on how to use the hammer to be a carpenter. Just the hammer dont make the carpenter.

If you want to talk to a psychologist about trading psychology, go right ahead. I am not responsible for the difference of how people trade depending on how much money they have or if they thing the money is imaginary or not. To me money as imaginary however you do it. Demo money is about as much imaginary as "real" money is, at least after 1971. And yes, i do know that there is a BIG difference between trading demo and "real" money, i did not say anything controary to this. Being an intelligent person as you are i think you can understand that i am not responsible for peoples psychology.

I wish you happy trading my friend!

Hi yaed
would you explain more about you thoughts on positions (one position system versus..) I like your way of thinking and am very appreciative of your time to attend to this forum. Of course I want to hear more of your observations when possible
cheers
hannele

Sure! Uhm, it was sort of an open, large question so maybe i will not give the sort of answer you where looking for but i will give a try.

Well, like i said in #16, most pro traders have something like 10-30% drawdown, and why would they if they where using one position systems like most of the systems here on FF? Well the simple answer is that trading well is not a matter of trading one position at a time. If i knew how to trade just one position all the time and be profitable, i would. Maybe i am a rookie, maybe not. Maybe +0.5% a days is good, maybe its not. To me its good solid money and apparently investors with some sense realize this too.

My biggest goal is to have a small drawdown. I dont care so much to make a big buck, other then my +0.5%/day target. When i close positions in profit, i do it mainly to reduce my drawdown, not to make a big buck.

Generally speaking, using a few open positions is not a problem as long as you dont get caught in a trend reversal on that time fram that you are trading. So then when to close? Depends on TF x ATR, something like that. In practice 7 pips is a good profit for me on E/U M5. But i DID just close on a 17 pip one a few minutes ago. But, also keep in mind there is no timeframes, the only REAL unit there is, is tick scale. This means that if a candle closes here or there on this side of an MA or on that side of an S/R, that dont really matter that much usually. This is so because time is one continous flow of events, it is not divided at all. The unit "second" is simply an idea, the unit "minute" as well. That means that M1, M5, M15 or anything else for that matter is affected by this too. And also time is only an idea, but that is getting into philosophical territory which we can explore that is outside the practice of trading.

Of course, S/R is still VERY important since PEOPLE use it. People divide time in their own imagination, but it is not divided as such. Ok so... positions... getting back to positions.

Well, a good position is a good position, even though price goes away for a bit. Of course there are limits to this: Dont stay married to your position (its not very good in bed anyway). So let say i sell at a place that SEEMS good. Then after 15 minutes i realize it was s stupid thing that are not in line with how i normaly think. Usually this happens when im tired or over confident or if i am trying to do 5 things at the same time (writing, trading, looking for info, skyping, taking care of my son). If it seems it wasnt a REALLY stupid position, i will keep it. The lot size is carefully calculated on daily ATR, on experience, on account size and on my target (+0.5% a day). If it WAS a REALLY stupid position, i hope i will close it and not add to the destructive madness.

I dont trade like other people in the way that they have very carefull rules and they sit around waiting for it all day or even weeks on end. I trade 95% of the days i am in front of the computer. Actually on monday i did not place one single trade for that was the most boring PA i have seen in a LONG time on E/U. Otherwise i trade 5-30 positions a day. Like today, i have opened 19, 4 are close in -, 12 closed in +, 3 are still open in -. Also i ONLY trade E/U and it is the financial instrument i have been trading since some time 2009. I think at least 98% of my positions that i ever opened was E/U positions. Why? I chose it because it has the right kind of PA. It has retraces that usually can be trusted. Yen is Impossible for me to trade and i need something with a relatively low spread since i trade on short TF, the spread is a BIG thing to pay as it is using Alpari with a spread of 1.3 to 1.7. And i have stuck with E/U it just because the more i look and analyze it, the better i get at it.

I cant really tell anyone else to trade this way or that way. This is simply how i do and i dont really need to convince anybody else to do that. Im not selling anything and i dont wish to, im a currency trader, not a salesman. I tried being a salesman and i HATED it.

Let me see if i can get you some statements.

Two lists from my recent activity.





If you have the interest to find out you might set markers for entrances and exits. I got more history but that should be enough to give you an idea of that which hannele where wondering about. The ROI for that is... well its good. But remember the drawdown, thats maybe more important then the balance/equity. I think i average something like just +2-3 pip on each position, but that dont much matter as long as the end result is +, right?

Happy trading everybody!

I added more colors. Now its way more fun! Yeah some pink shit too!
Everyone can join the fun!







Well seriously, i think i will use that tommorrow. I can post the statement afterwards if anyone wants to see it or something. Maybe i wont if i drink to much coffee or beer. Hwo knows. Oh, and im playing RPG tommorrow. Maybe i wont have so much time to post. Who knows. In that case, hang tight for some more gay action. Or something.

Well gay trading to yah all !

Hi again yaed,

thank you for you explanation. Do you use trade manager, if so may I ask which one ( if in public domain ).
cheers
hannele

If by "trade manager" you mean a piece of MQL code that i use, popularly reffered to as an Epert Advisor (EA) the answer you where most likely not hoping for is: No. You where thinking that if you had such a thing, that could help you and/or your ascociates to make a shitload of money.

But the extension of the answer is: Given enough time: Yes. By "time" i mean actual work for somebody to do, and we are talking ADVANCED MATH. Almost high school math. VERY ADVANCED. Not. Anyway. Im not a programmer, i am a trader and many other things like a father and priest and a mage and a shapeshifter and a lizard and a wolf. So given all those other things i also do in my 24 hour day.

By "trade manager" i can also think "The specific kind of EA ment for TPs". In this instance the answer above is sufficient still.

Also the rest of the answer, which takes a general aproach to your question is this: Its hard to make one. Because my main thing that i do is i look at PA ALL DAY! Its very challenging, but its also a lot of fun to fool the best math people in the world. It fucks with your mind. BUT, TPs are PA dependent. Thats it. Of course there is not an endless variety to those patterns, but it is a function of ATR and tick scale engulfment. And i say "tick scale engulfment", because it is. The candles are divided into time, tick is sort of that, but not in M1, M5, M15 and so on units. So what you need to do on this crappy kind of data i have i need to aproximate channels THROUGH the tick scale, its like a 20 minute long spear of orders through the tick scale that i am hunting. Its not easy, but that is the most clear expression to what ALL traders are trying to do.

And by "traders" i mean real smart people. Not bank employees. They go out of service in a year or two. They never get to the level that a real trader is on. A real trader is the best of the best mages. They learn a system and focus on its weaknessess which they exploit. Either for the benefit of everybody (white magic) or for the benefit only for themselves (black magic). Maybe you dont like the name "magic" in that case you can remove it and place any other word there.

Hunting the spear of orders that is going to break the back of the beast. Thats what we are up against. Knowing when its going to turn. Like ol´ cap´n Ahab on his boat after he put the harpoon through the whale. Its a helluva beast the E/U. But it can be beaten.

Happy trading everyone!

Long term... well... not analysis, just "look" is fine i guess. Doesnt take much from the neurons really.

Oh i really like yellow on black background. Sort of makes me think of the beginning of Star wars. The crickets are playing outside. There is a BIG fire in the woods just 25 kilometres to the west. Even made it to US TV. My head hurts. I need to piss. There is something in the air tonight. I have two cigarettes left. But i already brushed my teeth. Also some cuban tobacco in a box. My woman just fell asleep. But i dont want to go to sleep. I have work to do. I dont really decided i wanted to, its just that i have the energy and the focus for it now. The focus is stronger then the headache. The future is in the making and we are making it as we go along.

I meditate. First removing all the thoughts that come up. Then after a while i open my eyes. Let go of muscles in the stomach that i was holding, blocking my chi/mana/chakras/neurons/energy/aura/field displacement/force (use the force Mark Hamill)/PSY/subconsious connection.

Then i try to create a mathematical/graphical representation of the things going on. Bounces, aproximations, counting, 7.5 pip zoning, EMA 625, weighted closes instead, making S/R superflous with the colors, on and on. Even when i am asleep it goes on. Even when i try to watch a Danish thriller with my woman. On and on.

A mage is a person obsessed with numbers. Systems. Patterns. A mage is a crazy person. They have just become good at hiding it.

The only real revolution is the internal revolution. Defeating the demons. That tells us "You cant!", "You dont know shit about that!", "Why are you doing that?". Nobody asks thunder why its there. Nobody asks the wolf why it eats the sheep. Nobody asks the right questions. So maybe they will never now. I dont have that many questions left. When am i finally going to piss? Thats one of them. Thats the hard kind of question. When to buy/sell, thats the EASY kind of question. I just CANT find answer when to piss. For this isnt any. I just have to decide to do it. But i dont. I sit here and i am really uncomfortable. Its like i think i should do this bit before i go.

Im not sure when its going to end... Oh right now. How nice. Finally i will go and piss.

Order flow

I really liked George Carlin. He kicked some fucking ass.




Now a cigarrete.

Yeah well, thats a pretty nice .5 ish retrace. Today we got a really weird but super nice like .75 retrace. Mother fucking shit what was super nice. Seems like after up there is a strong channel leaning down at an alarming rate. "Alarming" meaning, "i dont really give a fuck since i will be selling only anyway.

Dude you are completely off your TITS! you opened 19 EU positions today with spread of 1.3 to 1.7 WTF

Yeah im off my tits. Look at the statement. Do the numbers. Its math you could do BEFORE highschool OK? Go cry on someoneelses doorstep. Either that or give me a fucking 0 spread account tommorrow. No? Then what the fuck are you on about? Have you taken speed and can concentrate TO GOOD or are you just lazy?

Well now that i think of your nickname that instantly teleports me to a universe where everything makes a lot of sense. Its called Iraq. There you have assholes with tanks and helicopters and poor people who dont have shit. You want to go there? Thats where you are going with that attitude of yours mister man you person or program writing that symbols that you do.

I think i will go to bed now im gettin really fucking bored here. Seems the world is only fucking populated by people who think pants are the greatest thing ever, and a really fucking nice statement is apparently not worth shit. Ah you beautiful world! There is just roses and shit everywhere! So fucking nice! Man, shit, fuck, i want to go sharpen my fucking axe so that i can stop people from actually getting to close to me. Some of their... thinking might rub off of me and MAYBE i will become as they.

Wow dude i gotta clean up this. What the hell was i doing last night? Ok thats that and everything is where it should be. Well im off to my journal i think.

If there is any questions
If anybody has any question, just fire away and i will try to find the time to answer. Happy learning and happy trading everybody!