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Funny Looking Rectangles & Useless Drivel

  • #301
  • Aug 12, 2014 9:52pm Aug 12, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting Relativity
I was wondering thou; should I just post a good part of my statistical work just to 'prove' that there are consistent and specific levels, where price will stop/struggle? Which implies support and resistance can be projected ahead of time using past price structure? And these structures are at least 80% reliable? People want evidence, it also takes effort to produce evidence. I actually have the evidence on hand, but for personal consumption (years of hard work you know =d) I had my hands itchy and head pondering upon it for days; I would love to...
Hey friend....closed user/skype group much better solution imo. ForexFactory B....s...t not worth it.
  • #302
  • Aug 12, 2014 9:54pm Aug 12, 2014 9:54pm
Quoting Baillie
Back to relevant matters, I posted a pic earlier in this thread of an observation I had which is marked with a horizontal line in white.{image}
Baillie, How does the volume indicator help in your decision making or trading bias?
  • #303
  • Aug 12, 2014 10:32pm Aug 12, 2014 10:32pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Hey friend....closed user/skype group much better solution imo. ForexFactory B....s...t not worth it.
Well... I tried that before. I do find that the disadvantage of a closed group is that its hard to define a group when everyone seemingly have different say / direction. I would prefer a semi-open group with no strings attached. Call that association or short term collaboration. From the pool, pick and chose who do I really want to work with on a closer basis, while keeping an eye for new people worth my time as well.

I've also given up working with people in my country. I won't detail it here but the experience isn't great to my expectations.
  • #304
  • Aug 12, 2014 10:33pm Aug 12, 2014 10:33pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} Anything you would like to share will be appreciated by the serious learner, but as you clearly pointed out, there are some here who go around trying to derail any idea they did not come up with and demean any new idea. So, still your choice to share or not but I myself would like to see what you envision with the concept presented in this thread regardless if you share your private collection or not.
I agree, and would be privileged to get an invite.
  • #305
  • Aug 12, 2014 10:47pm Aug 12, 2014 10:47pm
Quoting Relativity
{quote} Well... I tried that before. I do find that the disadvantage of a closed group is that its hard to define a group when everyone seemingly have different say / direction. I would prefer a semi-open group with no strings attached. Call that association or short term collaboration. From the pool, pick and chose who do I really want to work with on a closer basis, while keeping an eye for new people worth my time as well. I've also given up working with people in my country. I won't detail it here but the experience isn't great to my expectations....
I think Realjumper did something similar to the 'semi-open group' concept on his genesis matrix thread, where participation was very much controlled and bsed on prior approval. Why not take a look and see if it could work in line with what you have in mind? You could also send him a pm for further assistance in setting up something similar. I think you should give it a shot...
  • #306
  • Aug 13, 2014 12:41am Aug 13, 2014 12:41am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} I think Realjumper did something similar to the 'semi-open group' concept on his genesis matrix thread, where participation was very much controlled and bsed on prior approval. Why not take a look and see if it could work in line with what you have in mind? You could also send him a pm for further assistance in setting up something similar. I think you should give it a shot...
Wow sounds like a lot of work to me, but I get your idea. To give you a better idea, I am looking for a place likened to a sandbox and lab, one which I would welcome constructive criticism and vetting of ideas. But also means people who are open to the hard grind of research, have their own set of substantial findings (backed with hard numbers) and are willing to compare notes.

The main objective / premise would be 'Price Point To Price Point Statistical Analysis'. This means no 'conventional indicators'. Pure price, nothing else. How to actually do that correctly, I can do a write up on that later.

To quote a particular PM I had;
Quoting Relativity;
Eventually, I am looking for a good place to 'park' maybe... 50-80% of my work that is on beta / current research. But this also means revealing a good amount of my core work.
  • #307
  • Aug 13, 2014 8:00am Aug 13, 2014 8:00am
Here's an exercise for shits and giggles

Go to the hourly AUD/USD and draw the FLR for July. Once it is closed off, extend the longer lines into this month.

Now... thems some channel lines you might not have looked for eh? The low printed last week also coincides with the top of a demand zone which was also just under the weekly S2... all combines to make some decent reasons to trade. (I only just noticed the channels, otherwise I might have waited a bit longer last week. My actual trade got in 10 pips early, playing a bounce off 9250. TP was set inside +64pips from the weekly low. 64 pips being the weekly O-H of the FLR). Check out how it passed the weekly pivot by a few pips before stopping dead on the channel line tonight. Check the breakout behaviour on it a couple of hours later.

I'm liking these boxes. I don't think they are as infallible as the 97% quoted earlier in the thread but yeah... a pretty handy filter to add to your trade criteria
  • #308
  • Aug 13, 2014 8:52am Aug 13, 2014 8:52am
Quoting angelofx
{quote} Baillie, How does the volume indicator help in your decision making or trading bias?
Hi Angelofx, I use them to test reactions at line of sup or res: @ breakouts, break-ins and consolidations, either after a mark up after accumilation or after a mark down after a distribution phase. It is what people here call VSA. I have a trade journal that explains some of my ramblings on the subject if your interested, check it out.
  • #309
  • Aug 13, 2014 8:53am Aug 13, 2014 8:53am
Quoting TheMadMonk
Here's an exercise for shits and giggles Go to the hourly AUD/USD and draw the FLR for July. Once it is closed off, extend the longer lines into this month. Now... thems some channel lines you might not have looked for eh? The low printed last week also coincides with the top of a demand zone which was also just under the weekly S2... all combines to make some decent reasons to trade. (I only just noticed the channels, otherwise I might have waited a bit longer last week. My actual trade got in 10 pips early, playing a bounce off 9250. TP was set...
Hey i was doing that also, price respects those levels as you said, I only trade EUR/USD.
  • #310
  • Aug 13, 2014 9:36am Aug 13, 2014 9:36am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} Hey i was doing that also, price respects those levels as you said, I only trade EUR/USD.
Ngh... Don't tell me about Eur/USD... Kills me every time I go near it.

Then again, maybe this could be a new way of looking at it. Can't hurt to check it out and place a few hypothetical trades. Thanks for bringing it up
  • #311
  • Aug 13, 2014 9:53am Aug 13, 2014 9:53am
Quoting TheMadMonk
Here's an exercise for shits and giggles Go to the hourly AUD/USD and draw the FLR for July. Once it is closed off, extend the longer lines into this month. Now... thems some channel lines you might not have looked for eh? The low printed last week also coincides with the top of a demand zone which was also just under the weekly S2... all combines to make some decent reasons to trade. (I only just noticed the channels, otherwise I might have waited a bit longer last week. My actual trade got in 10 pips early, playing a bounce off 9250. TP was set...
I should clarify this bit too I think.

I checked out how these boxes behave on the AU. I checked minute candles on 4H periods for a few weeks. Minute candles on daily periods over the course of a week and 15 minute candles on daily periods for the last few months (admitedly a ranging market where price will continually be revisited). I also looked at hourly candles on weekly and monthly periods. In summation:

4 hour boxes are pretty neat. You will almost always get your fall line hit but the range is too tight for my liking.
Daily boxes aren't much better as far as range is concerned. There's been a couple worth trading in the last couple of weeks but there have also been 3 that haven't fulfilled: 24/7, 6/8 and 12/8. The last 2 I think are achievable pretty soon but there have been 60+ pip moves away from them already. This does allow for some tradable ranges though, if you can get a decent entry signal.
Weekly boxes give you some decent ranges to work with. Last weeks was a good case in point.
Monthlies have a good range but tend to have the fall line hit inside the actual month, making them pointless unless you take the gamble that the low or high has been printed for the month, often with a couple of weeks to go

So as far as the Aussie is concerned, the boxes seem well suited for weekly periods. Dailies work well as well for tight scalps but the fall line can be left hanging for quite some time while you wait for price to come back if it does at all (there was one from early July that took 3 weeks to return). Other time scales don't seem to be appropriate
  • #312
  • Aug 13, 2014 10:07am Aug 13, 2014 10:07am
Quoting TheMadMonk
{quote} I should clarify this bit too I think. I checked out how these boxes behave on the AU. I checked minute candles on 4H periods for a few weeks. Minute candles on daily periods over the course of a week and 15 minute candles on daily periods for the last few months (admitedly a ranging market where price will continually be revisited). I also looked at hourly candles on weekly and monthly periods. In summation: 4 hour boxes are pretty neat. You will almost always get your fall line hit but the range is too tight for my liking. Daily boxes...
Are you saying, you are trading to the fall line or away from it? I am looking to trade away from the fall line with confirmation from my other system.
  • #313
  • Aug 13, 2014 11:09am Aug 13, 2014 11:09am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} Are you saying, you are trading to the fall line or away from it? I am looking to trade away from the fall line with confirmation from my other system.

Trading towards it. There looks to be some merit in trading away from it but the OP mentions the boxes as a directional indicator and from what I've seen, there isn't much in these boxes to tell you which way it will move from the fall line when it gets there. Mind you, I haven't exactly been keeping notes so maybe I'll have to do it all again (shudders)

Anyway, those extensions are pretty good. Not perfect by any stretch of the imagination but drawing them up, I think I understand "why some TLs are respected and others aren't" a lot better than I used to.

I gotta go hit the sack now. Went back over a year on EU checking out weekly periods on the 1H. Quite remarkable stuff. Did about 30 weeks worth but it's hitting 2am here and I got a day job. Will hopefully get more time on it soon. Good luck man
  • #314
  • Aug 13, 2014 12:15pm Aug 13, 2014 12:15pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} Hi Angelofx, I use them to test reactions at line of sup or res: @ breakouts, break-ins and consolidations, either after a mark up after accumilation or after a mark down after a distribution phase. It is what people here call VSA. I have a trade journal that explains some of my ramblings on the subject if your interested, check it out.
Thank you, Baille.Will visit your journal.
  • #315
  • Aug 14, 2014 3:57am Aug 14, 2014 3:57am
Yesterday's fall line hit and respected on the AU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 128 KB
  • #316
  • Aug 14, 2014 8:41am Aug 14, 2014 8:41am
Crazy, unexplained spike all but bounces off the bottom of the channel created by the FLR from two days ago...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 149 KB
  • #317
  • Aug 14, 2014 10:35am Aug 14, 2014 10:35am
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} Whose support? Whose resistance? Can you identify who is putting up a front at support and resistance just to lure you into a trap? Keeping your lot sizes small will guarantee that you keep your profits de-optimized, if you have not accounted for the Magnitude of the event you are scaling into. (a big mistake rookie traders and overly cautious trader make all the time). You trade with FEAR, while I trade with confidence. There is a distinct disadvantage to that and you had better figure out - quick. How do you know that support is NOT about...
I made read like a total amatuer to you because you are legend in your own mind. You have been chased from forum to forum and have resorted to conspiracy theories to explain it all.

You speak of empirically evaluated patterns and yet you do not understand the basic concept that the open of any bar changes as soon as you move one time zone over. The opening price of a candle in Germany will not be same opening price of a candle in Japan. In other words, candlesticks depend on where in the world you look at them. So your axiom is flawed. And if that is flawed then everything you based that axiom on is flawed.

This is why you are chased all over creation. I am sure you will play guru and take the ten newbies who like chart art with you, and leave in a diva style huff. And that's okay. Anyone who follows your useless drivel deserve to be parted from their money.

Have a nice day.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #318
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:18am Aug 14, 2014 11:18am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I made read like a total amatuer to you because you are legend in your own mind. You have been chased from forum to forum and have resorted to conspiracy theories to explain it all. You speak of empirically evaluated patterns and yet you do not understand the basic concept that the open of any bar changes as soon as you move one time zone over. The opening price of a candle in Germany will not be same opening price of a candle in Japan. In other words, candlesticks depend on where in the world you look at them. So your axiom is flawed. And...
I think he understands this also, as do most traders. People who think there is nothing new to learn are simply short sighted near to blindness. I am a successful trader in my own right and I got that way by going against the grain of popular thinking. Your last post in an attempt to post something relevant to trading was simply stupid and insulting hence my reply; LOL. You already got your ass handed to you, so just give up and go away if you don't plan on contributing to the furtherance of this topic.
  • #319
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:40am Aug 14, 2014 11:40am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} I think he understands this also, as do most traders. People who think there is nothing new to learn are simply short sighted near to blindness. I am a successful trader in my own right and I got that way by going against the grain of popular thinking. Your last post in an attempt to post something relevant to trading was simply stupid and insulting hence my reply; LOL. You already got your ass handed to you, so just give up and go away if you don't plan on contributing to the furtherance of this topic.
Thank you Baillie. Much appreciated. BTW I would be soon posting in detail why these rectangles work =) depending on how my own thread goes.
  • #320
  • Aug 14, 2014 11:45am Aug 14, 2014 11:45am
Quoting Relativity
{quote} Thank you Baillie. Much appreciated. BTW I would be soon posting in detail why these rectangles work =) depending on how my own thread goes.
Great, I am looking forward to your posts on both threads eagerly
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