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  • #6,761
  • Aug 13, 2014 8:13am Aug 13, 2014 8:13am
EU 3412 that was last weeks close, just saying
I once read that it's only the closes that really matter
  • #6,762
  • Aug 13, 2014 8:20am Aug 13, 2014 8:20am
Quoting Hickson
Time to build long term positions ...
  • #6,763
  • Aug 13, 2014 8:36am Aug 13, 2014 8:36am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} How would you count this scenario with beginning from 0 ? I think this Primary Count looks to be the better one. Rest beantworte ich später {image}

Well, since the zero point is lower than the following high at 399x, we have to try to find an ABC-flat or elongated ABC-flat, or a WXY pattern in form of a flat.

Important for this count would be, what you think the big-waves are which are left of the zero-point. There is limited use in placing somewhere a zero-point and start counting from there.

Yes, you can place a zero-point literally everywhere and start a count from that point. All you need to know is to know where you are wrong (invalidation levels).

But you push up the probabilities when you try to get the bigger scheme right.

So what is your bigger scheme count - that is the question.


Ok, coming back to the chart:

let us assume an elongated flat.

So the whole wave down from the top needs to be counted as an impulse. Due to Swannells work, a wave C of a flat is up to around 300% of wave A, but most of them terminate somewhere in the 100% to the 260% range. So we have room to go left.

Also we may have seen an ABC-flat, which terminated at 3501, then a X-wave up, and now down in another corrective wave - maybe double or triple zigzag (most WXY also show alternation in wave structure between W and Y wave).


Since we are trading currencies here, we have heavy fundamental impact also in form of rate hikes or lowerings. So question is: who inflated currency more in the past, and who looks more likely to undergo such measures in the future? Who will be the one to hike rates first?

Although EW is all about sentiment, this mega-fundamentals can not be ignored (at least in the short to intermediate term).
  • #6,764
  • Aug 13, 2014 8:43am Aug 13, 2014 8:43am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} 3396 has been indicated yesterday
Yes, short from 3408... but to where? 331x? stops at be, about to take a partial.
Fail better.
  • #6,765
  • Aug 13, 2014 9:05am Aug 13, 2014 9:05am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} this was my prediction before i made it yesterday {image}

but now you have a c-wave extension of around 200% of the wave A

what now?
  • #6,766
  • Aug 13, 2014 9:14am Aug 13, 2014 9:14am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} but now you have a c-wave extension of around 200% of the wave A what now?
first filling GAP

with morphing sideways
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: refil gap.PNG Size: 7 KB
  • #6,767
  • Aug 13, 2014 9:16am Aug 13, 2014 9:16am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Yes, short from 3408... but to where? 331x? stops at be, about to take a partial.
step by step 3351/2 on the cards
  • #6,768
  • Aug 13, 2014 9:23am Aug 13, 2014 9:23am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} first filling GAP with morphing sideways {image}

around 3364 to 3370 is the gap

well spotted

good visible on 1sec chart
  • #6,769
  • Aug 13, 2014 9:26am Aug 13, 2014 9:26am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} around 3364 to 3370 is the gap well spotted good visible on 1sec chart
EU is a horror atm.....
  • #6,770
  • Aug 13, 2014 9:35am Aug 13, 2014 9:35am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} but now you have a c-wave extension of around 200% of the wave A what now?
for me we are in a komplex X wave (begining @33360)

in my eyes the sequence is until now

0 = 3336
W = 3373
X = 3342 (todays low)
Y = 3415 (today high)
X = 3351
Y = 3435-3450 area

retrace of your 200% with 161.8% to 3352

than + 261% gives to me 3450
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: today.PNG Size: 30 KB
  • #6,771
  • Aug 13, 2014 9:36am Aug 13, 2014 9:36am
EURUSD
If the main monthly trend will continue or re-establish we could see labels like 1.40/1.45. If not & SMA200 will not last long, the market price will running down the 50% Fib Line from 2013.07.14 and maybe we could take the other trip - the A-train (abrupt price movements) to 1.28 again. EURUSD didn't move in calm latitudes.
my 2 cents
FXcube
  • #6,772
  • Aug 13, 2014 9:49am Aug 13, 2014 9:49am
Quoting Forexcube
EURUSD If the main monthly trend will continue or re-establish we could see labels like 1.40/1.45. If not & SMA200 will not last long, the market price will running down the 50% Fib Line from 2013.07.14 and maybe we could take the other trip - the A-train (abrupt price movements) to 1.28 again. EURUSD didn't move in calm latitudes. my 2 cents FXcube
I'm also bullish on EURUSD. for 1.4xxx levels
  • #6,773
  • Aug 13, 2014 10:10am Aug 13, 2014 10:10am
Quoting hadox
love days like today.. {image}
Mine also not filled ... but nice drawdown on GBP ... LOL. I need some beer I guess ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #6,774
  • Aug 13, 2014 10:12am Aug 13, 2014 10:12am
GU buy 6692 for 6710
  • #6,775
  • Aug 13, 2014 10:13am Aug 13, 2014 10:13am
Quoting Schickeria
GU buy 6692 for 6710
LKW Convoi during the Ukraina Boarder it could push extremly atm....
  • #6,776
  • Aug 13, 2014 10:23am Aug 13, 2014 10:23am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} LKW Convoi during the Ukraina Boarder it could push extremly atm....
Really sick ... I think we will need patience for 1.71 +
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #6,777
  • Aug 13, 2014 10:25am Aug 13, 2014 10:25am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} for me we are in a komplex X wave (begining @33360) in my eyes the sequence is until now 0 = 3336 W = 3373 X = 3342 (todays low) Y = 3415 (today high) X = 3351 Y = 3435-3450 area retrace of your 200% with 161.8% to 3352 than + 261% gives to me 3450 {image}

the whole pattern since the first 333x low looks more and more like a triangle, maybe contracting. That itself then would call for a count, where the move from the 3700 top is now in its wave 4.

But it is too early to call.

Regarding your proposal: would like to see that in order to get rid of some stupid longs I took in that area (in order to pseudo-hedge my long term short position).

But I fear now the 3420-3430 area
  • #6,778
  • Aug 13, 2014 10:29am Aug 13, 2014 10:29am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} the whole pattern since the first 333x low looks more and more like a triangle, maybe contracting. That itself then would call for a count, where the move from the 3700 top is now in its wave 4. But it is too early to call. Regarding your proposal: would like to see that in order to get rid of some stupid longs I took in that area (in order to pseudo-hedge my long term short position). But I fear now the 3420-3430 area
if its X (gewixxe) most time triangle.

agree its possible
  • #6,779
  • Aug 13, 2014 10:31am Aug 13, 2014 10:31am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} wenn man das sauber counted dann passen die targets auch meiner Meinung nach fehlts da oben bei 200% ein bißchen 200% liegt bei 34163 und mein high ist bei 34153 (und bei F.X.C.M trading view ist es 34138) {image}

one degree bigger scheme:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_10 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 43 KB
  • #6,780
  • Aug 13, 2014 10:36am Aug 13, 2014 10:36am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} first filling GAP with morphing sideways {image}
GAP refilled

NOW: morphing



Schickeria say = GOOD NIGHT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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