Just a stupid question! What happens if I do the opposite? | Page 3 | Forex Factory

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Just a stupid question! What happens if I do the opposite?

  • #41
  • Aug 10, 2014 11:18am Aug 10, 2014 11:18am
I understand that's why i said "if i took" , i am talking about specific signals/bets .


Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} This is of course wrong. You would make money if you knew in advance that hanover will lose. But if that particular day you oppose his bets he is lucky and he wins you lose the same amount as he won. Each time he wins you lose. Each time he loses you win. Altogether you make no money. In the roulette example the probability he loses is 50% whatever the number of times he bets.
  • #42
  • Aug 10, 2014 5:23pm Aug 10, 2014 5:23pm
Quoting tar
If you reverse a losing strategy then its not necessarily you will make money , however if you reverse a losing signal then definitely you will make money minus costs , so as long as these costs and commissions dont add up then you will make money , example : {quote} If i took the opposite of your bets at the same table at the same time then i will definitely have made money minus costs - and the cost here is when it lands on the table zero - .
PipMeUp is correct. With roulette, the house edge remains the same (5.26% on a wheel with two zeros, and 2.70% on a wheel with one zero) no matter what strategy you use. Wins (and losses) are merely fortuitous; the house is mathematically bound to win in the long term.
  • #43
  • Aug 10, 2014 6:06pm Aug 10, 2014 6:06pm
Definitely couldn't agree less. I tried reversing a losing strategy before, and it didn't work as well. Got killed by the spread, no matter which side I take. We'll need a big losing edge over the market and make sure that we get a big winning edge when we reverse it to account for the spread. Not saying that reversing a big losing edge may result in a big winning edge, of course. It depends on the type of strategy we are talking about.
  • #44
  • Aug 10, 2014 10:12pm Aug 10, 2014 10:12pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} PipMeUp is correct. With roulette, the house edge remains the same (5.26% on a wheel with two zeros, and 2.70% on a wheel with one zero) no matter what strategy you use. Wins (and losses) are merely fortuitous; the house is mathematically bound to win in the long term.
Irrelevant , if i did the opposite of your bets - in your example - i would have made money minus costs . Same concept with what they call hedging if you are long and short the market your loss is the costs .
  • #45
  • Aug 10, 2014 10:14pm Aug 10, 2014 10:14pm
No offense to the thread starter, but don't waste your time here!!!

Trading is not like the real world or driving a car... even "3 wrong [left] turns still cannot make 1 right".

... But at least you knew it was a stupid question!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #46
  • Aug 10, 2014 10:32pm Aug 10, 2014 10:32pm
Quoting Nepul
hi traders ! in this period i'm trying to explore and understand better all the world around the expert advisors. So i'm testing a lot of ea and i'm noticing that the most i'm testing are with a losing equity line, so i wondering what if i do the opposite? I know maybe it's a really stupid question, but if i open a buy order with a 20 pips take profit and 10 stop loss and this order go to stop loss (-10) it mean that if i sold (and not bought) with 20 pips stop loss and 10 take profit i was in profit ( +10). So look this photo: http://gyazo.com/68d2d206e6592f8ce0b5d847aaa8fe8e...
Let me add to the ridicule, hopefully it'll help you to see things more clearly, also no further questions should be directed to me.

I suggest the ridiculous idea of three forces operating, all at the same time, in the market - bulls, bears (these two make for the investor group) and market itself.
That is all of the idea!
To complete the picture, I add the assumption (to be read as i insinuate) that books tell how the markets work
------THE END-----
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #47
  • Aug 10, 2014 10:33pm Aug 10, 2014 10:33pm
Quoting Nepul
hi traders ! in this period i'm trying to explore and understand better all the world around the expert advisors. So i'm testing a lot of ea and i'm noticing that the most i'm testing are with a losing equity line, so i wondering what if i do the opposite? I know maybe it's a really stupid question, but if i open a buy order with a 20 pips take profit and 10 stop loss and this order go to stop loss (-10) it mean that if i sold (and not bought) with 20 pips stop loss and 10 take profit i was in profit ( +10). So look this photo: http://gyazo.com/68d2d206e6592f8ce0b5d847aaa8fe8e...
If you do the opposite of whatever mechanical system says to do, you are a SL hunter
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #48
  • Aug 10, 2014 10:43pm Aug 10, 2014 10:43pm
Nepul, the main point you are missing here is that most indicator readings will be affected greatly depending on the volatility of
the market you are trading.

Bring up any chart with RSI and look at the readings, sometimes it can show less than 5 in a small move down, and
sometimes it shows less than 5 after a much bigger move down.
What happens next, sometimes continuation, sometimes reversal.

Every market moves in many different size waves.
Waves within waves.

It is this increase and decrease in amplitude that makes nearly every known indicator useless.

In order to succesfully reverse a losing strategy, you would need to eliminate this factor in the strategy.

One example would be sell Euro at open everyday. But then you are at 50/50 minus spread.
  • #49
  • Edited Aug 11, 2014 1:01am Aug 10, 2014 11:18pm | Edited Aug 11, 2014 1:01am
Quoting smash1820
"3 wrong [left] turns still cannot make 1 right".
If I make three consecutive left turns, then aren't I travelling to the right?

Quoting tar
Irrelevant , if i did the opposite of your bets - in your example - i would have made money minus costs.
So, effectively what you're saying is that since you know the outcome of my bets, then if you could travel backward in time, so that you could place the opposite bets on the same spins that that I did, you'd win?

Well sure, that's obvious, but — unless one of us has a time machine — how is it helpful?
  • #50
  • Aug 10, 2014 11:54pm Aug 10, 2014 11:54pm
if you have a sharply ascending moving average, and you bet against it, odds are you will have a trade that loses for a long time before you have a chance at a profit.

A baseball manager never puts the batter with the poorest average in at fourth spot.

If all the fish are on this side of the boat, it is foolish to fish the other side.

In order for your strategy to be viable in the long run, you have to pick an indicator that is a failure. Flipping a coin and betting the other way will be no more successful than going with the coin. Neither method will give you an edge.

I give you credit for trying for a different idea. Try again!
  • #51
  • Aug 11, 2014 2:20am Aug 11, 2014 2:20am
Quoting hanover
{quote} If I make three consecutive left turns, then aren't I travelling to the right? {quote} So, effectively what you're saying is that since you know the outcome of my bets, then if you could travel backward in time, so that you could place the opposite bets on the same spins that that I did, you'd win? Well sure, that's obvious, but — unless one of us has a time machine — how is it helpful?
Big difference between fading a losing method and fading a trader . You certainly don't need a time machine to know that someone is losing in forex ...
  • #52
  • Aug 11, 2014 2:38am Aug 11, 2014 2:38am
Quoting tar
{quote} Big difference between fading a losing method and fading a trader . You certainly don't need a time machine to know that someone is losing in forex ...
If I bet long for any heads on my coin and short otherwise I will lose the spread in average. How can you make an edge by betting against me? You'll just go long when I flip tails and short otherwise. You could as well flip your own coin!
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #53
  • Aug 11, 2014 3:04am Aug 11, 2014 3:04am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} If I bet long for any heads on my coin and short otherwise I will lose the spread in average. How can you make an edge by betting against me? You'll just go long when I flip tails and short otherwise. You could as well flip your own coin!
I already said that , i will win minus costs unless costs adds up , my whole argument is about trading not flipping coins . There are many types of losing traders , you certainly don't want to fade the one who is just losing the spread . There is another issue here is the risk of ruin so you need to factor that and be prepared .
  • #54
  • Edited 4:19am Aug 11, 2014 3:18am | Edited 4:19am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} If I bet long for any heads on my coin and short otherwise I will lose the spread in average. How can you make an edge by betting against me? You'll just go long when I flip tails and short otherwise. You could as well flip your own coin!
BTW re trading based on coin flips , the odds are not 50/50 , yes it is 50% for intial direction : up or down but there are many variables in trading , how much it will go up before going the other way , 18 pips or 20 or 100 or , so coin flipping wont give you 50% in trading maybe it goes up 0.1 pips then reverses and takes your stop ...
  • #55
  • Aug 11, 2014 5:49am Aug 11, 2014 5:49am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} A losing strategy will never make a winning one by taking the opposite trades. !
Does a winning strategy will never make a loosing one by taking the opposite trades?
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #56
  • Aug 12, 2014 4:04pm Aug 12, 2014 4:04pm
Quoting Nepul
{quote} yes , there's some error in the test of the ea, but i dont understand why, sometimes it open more order while it just should invert sell and buy. By the way the idea it's not right if we refer in a exactly interval of time. Let's explain it in easy word and tell me what i wrong. STRATEGY : ONLY BUY WITH TP = 20 AND SL = 10 RESULT: TOTAL OF 10 OPERATIONS -10 +20 -10 -10 +20 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 = -30 STRATEGY REVERSE NOW WE WILL MAKE THE SAME OPERATION BUT THIS TIME WE SELL ONLY SELL WITH TP = 10 AND SL 20 TOTAL OPERATIONS ALWAYS 10 !! RESULT:...
This work fine |
I Have used this in Live accounts with TP: 2 {Two} pips and SL:30 Pips
But If I hit the stop loss 3 times, the a/c balance will go down and it will need 3 times the time to make it back |

As of now, I use only TP: 10 pips and NO Stop Loss
You can see my Closing Order since Aug 2014, all in profit.

Wait for the Loss Order to come profit and manage the equity with low leverage of 50:1

Thanks, Prachait
Prachait Saxena
  • #57
  • Aug 12, 2014 6:55pm Aug 12, 2014 6:55pm
Quoting prachait
I use only TP: 10 pips and NO Stop Loss You can see my Closing Order since Aug 2014, all in profit.
Of course all closed orders are in profit. You don't use SL.

The only loss will be a margin call ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #58
  • Aug 13, 2014 11:53pm Aug 13, 2014 11:53pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} Of course all closed orders are in profit. You don't use SL. The only loss will be a margin call ...
Yes, and Margin call is get maintained by Order, Pai and Money Management and controlled by Leverage |
Prachait Saxena
  • #59
  • Aug 14, 2014 12:01am Aug 14, 2014 12:01am
Quoting prachait
{quote} Yes, and Margin call is get maintained by Order, Pai and Money Management and controlled by Leverage |
If a margin call is due ... it is due ... no matter what you will do.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #60
  • Last Post: Aug 14, 2014 1:03am Aug 14, 2014 1:03am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} If a margin call is due ... it is due ... no matter what you will do.
Yes | Just wait and watch to the pair , to get at the level order need | Simple |
Prachait Saxena
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