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Let's Trade Options

  • #4,401
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:18pm Aug 12, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
Any how that VIX closes above 15.10 today or more likely tomorrow, I'm thinking it may hit 19/20 by the end of next week
Boy, howdy...what are you thinking?... ^VIX not been above 17 since the March stock dump. It would take some big red flag exogenous event to push it to 20 in a week. UVXY would pop to $70 if ^VIX went to 20.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,402
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:21pm Aug 12, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting StrayDog
Interesting idea {image}
Entered this also, VIX 12/14 Sep17 bullish put spread for $0.70 credit. First I shorted the 14 put, and after some waiting I got filled at $0.80. Then I just hit the midpoint on 12 puts, and got imediatelly filled at $0.10 debit.

So now I have 7 open positions... 3 bearish, 2 neutral, 2 ER's related...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,403
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:21pm Aug 12, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Boy, howdy...what are you thinking?... ^VIX not been above 17 since the March stock dump. It would take some big red flag exogenous event to push it to 20 in a week. UVXY would pop to $70 if ^VIX went to 20.....
I think that down move on indexes is not complete, optimistic
  • #4,404
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:25pm Aug 12, 2014 12:25pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I am with you on this one, CG. Got filled @ $0.30... I just bought 2 of those flies, for my first trade. I think better learning process from expirience is when you trade small on live acc, rather then just buy 1,000 of them on paper trading acc. Got filled for $0.30 debit as follows: 90.5 put for $0.11 debit 92.5 puts for $ 0.26 credit 94.5 put for $0.71 debit
good luck, lets hope the market does not finish green today, do not wait until expiration to close the trade if you see decent profit just close it
  • #4,405
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:27pm Aug 12, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I am with you on this one, CG. Got filled @ $0.30... I just bought 2 of those flies, for my first trade. I think better learning process from expirience is when you trade small on live acc, rather then just buy 1,000 of them on paper trading acc. Got filled for $0.30 debit as follows: 90.5 put for $0.11 debit 92.5 puts for $ 0.26 credit 94.5 put for $0.71 debit
we do not want QQQ TO FINISH ABOVE 95.40
  • #4,406
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:30pm Aug 12, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} good luck, lets hope the market does not finish green today, do not wait until expiration to close the trade if you see decent profit just close it
Of course, it has 8 days till expiration, and I am full time stuck into the monitor... and have alerts set for every trade I take... cos I am reading, watching videos and so on...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,407
  • Edited 6:53pm Aug 12, 2014 12:43pm | Edited 6:53pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I think that down move on indexes is not complete, optimistic
well, could be, but I'm watching the ^TNX & ^TYX nudge up today and if that continues it will prove bullish for stocks. Earnings have not been all that great, but there's nowhere else a yieldseeker can put his money unless he just wants to park it at a near zero nominal ror in Treasurys or other sovereign debt. I'd bet we need an exogenous catalyst for stocks to move sharply down, although they might step sideways or slide...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,408
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:44pm Aug 12, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Of course, it has 8 days till expiration, and I am full time stuck into the monitor... and have alerts set for every trade I take... cos I am reading, watching videos and so on...
I admire your work ethic.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,409
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:45pm Aug 12, 2014 12:45pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} we do not want QQQ TO FINISH ABOVE 95.40
damn that QQQ 95.44
  • #4,410
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:51pm Aug 12, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'd bet we need an exogenous catalyst for stocks to move sharply down, although they might step sideways or slide...
I will take a 2 - 2.5% slide if that is OK with Mr. Market .

And for tonight I would also like that KING goes beyond expected move, preferably to the downside bigtime.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,411
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:54pm Aug 12, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, could be, but I'm watching the ^TNX & ^TYX nudge up today and if that continues it will prove bullish for stocks. Earnings have not been all that great, but there's nowhere else a yieldseeker can put his money unless he just wants to park it at a near nominal ror in Treasurys or other sovereign debt. I'd bet we need an exogenous catalyst for stocks to move sharply down, although they might step sideways or slide...
on the other hand...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/once-a...162645735.html

I expect we will see QE ramped up in the eurozone this Fall, prolly right after Jackson Hole....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,412
  • Aug 12, 2014 1:20pm Aug 12, 2014 1:20pm
IWM took most of the damage today. I am actually pretty tied up, margin-wise, will free up a little on 8/16, but mostly in spreads that are looking out to 9/20 and 10/18, will take time to develop. Will be glad to get out of CSCO strangle, hopefully Thur-Fri after a big move. Have a good evening, chaps.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,413
  • Aug 12, 2014 1:28pm Aug 12, 2014 1:28pm
Quoting The Fool
IWM took most of the damage today. I am actually pretty tied up, margin-wise, will free up a little on 8/16, but mostly in spreads that are looking out to 9/20 and 10/18, will take time to develop. Will be glad to get out of CSCO strangle, hopefully Thur-Fri after a big move. Have a good evening, chaps.
also was looking at IWM, looking nice for a put otm butterfly but market closed, would of done 112 long, short 2 108 and long 1 105 all for 22 august expiry, see what tomorrow brings
  • #4,414
  • Aug 12, 2014 1:35pm Aug 12, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} also was looking at IWM, looking nice for a put otm butterfly but market closed, would of done 112 long, short 2 108 and long 1 105 all for 22 august expiry, see what tomorrow brings
109 and 106
  • #4,415
  • Aug 12, 2014 2:07pm Aug 12, 2014 2:07pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} And for tonight I would also like that KING goes beyond expected move, preferably to the downside bigtime.
21% down....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,416
  • Aug 12, 2014 6:05pm Aug 12, 2014 6:05pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I want to do an "optimized" curve fit type study for some of the most liquid verticals SPY, TLT, etc - as the tastytrade guys did for the /ES in the vids above. Looking at how to do that in ToS....
this can be done using the "thinkback" function in ToS. It's a very cool options backtesting utility. There's 10 years of back data. You can pick any date in the last decade, open up the options chains for your underlying on that date, make any single- or multi-leg trade on that date, and then pull the date forward x days and the graph of P/L for the trade up to X days forward will be shown in an instant. You can display all the greeks for the options over your x-day period as well (I think).

Immediately I can see umpteen uses for thinkback and I will show some here as I find time.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,417
  • Aug 12, 2014 6:29pm Aug 12, 2014 6:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} this can be done using the "thinkback" function in ToS.
http://mediaserver.thinkorswim.com/d...nkOnDemand.swf

WOW. The ThinkOnDemand utility in ToS is a trade simulator that replays all market data as if in real-time. Not sure how far back it goes. But, ...WOW.

I mean, WOW. You can simulate any trade as if in real-time. Pause the playback. Pull forward the results. Integrated with charting. Not just for options, but futures, forex, stocks, etc... I feel like I just got a new b-b gun...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,418
  • Aug 12, 2014 7:10pm Aug 12, 2014 7:10pm
Quoting The Fool
Not sure how far back it goes....
OnDemand data just goes back "several months"......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,419
  • Aug 13, 2014 6:39am Aug 13, 2014 6:39am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Entered today 18/20 Aug15 strangle on KING for $1.60 debit. It is a new kid on the block, so I expect / hoping for a wild move.
Strangle cost for KING was $1.60, put side was $0.85 and call side $0.75.

I just closed the put side for $4.20
So, KING....
Attached Image
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,420
  • Aug 13, 2014 7:38am Aug 13, 2014 7:38am
Double top on TSLA... right on ATH... AMZN is crazy also... those 2 stocks are very good for weekly option trades
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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