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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #6,121
  • Aug 8, 2014 8:10pm Aug 8, 2014 8:10pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Well-said Rufus!

Looks like we were both typing at the same time. Answering the same question from two perspectives. "It don't get no better then that"
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #6,122
  • Aug 10, 2014 7:32pm Aug 10, 2014 7:32pm
Quoting Rufus
{quote} Everything you posted on that chart is correct. It comes down to how individual traders see the chart and how they trade it with there personalities. Personally I don't believe there is any one correct way of trading supply/demand. We all have our own path. I throw in a lot of Fibonacci, occasionally some Gartley patterns, also starting to incorporate some Elliot Wave, and of course you see stochastic and moving averages on my chart. Theses are all tools that I have incorporated into my trading. Supply/Demand purists may say that the other...
Well explained GOOD stuff.. more Please
  • #6,123
  • Aug 11, 2014 12:50am Aug 11, 2014 12:50am
Quoting danc
{quote} Well explained GOOD stuff.. more Please


Thank you Danc


Appreciation for ones work surely does inspire more.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #6,124
  • Aug 11, 2014 3:07am Aug 11, 2014 3:07am
Thanks a lot Rufus and Winston.

Your feedback helps a lot. I am still in the process of learning this strategy. It is actually vers simple, but
putting the theoy into practice can be a struggle.

I've watched some of Sam's videos. I need to put more time to this type of trading.

I am also using the 1 Min-Chart for my entries. But I am not at the stage to incorporate supply and demand into my
analysis yet. I need to study further. But this stuff looks good and am working on getting there.
I see the supply and demand levels.
One of the biggest issues I have is the multiple timeframe analysis. I fund supply and demand levels on the higher tf.
I move down to the lower tf and find more levels. Some are used to fine tune the higher levels. I end up cluttering up my
chart with so many levels, I end up being rather confused than having a clear view.

Thanks again for all the answers.
I'll put more time to study this stuff before I bug any of you experienced supply/demand traders.

Cheers,
Never stop to learn
  • #6,125
  • Aug 11, 2014 9:45am Aug 11, 2014 9:45am
Quoting Whatsmyname
One of the biggest issues I have is the multiple timeframe analysis. I fund supply and demand levels on the higher tf. I move down to the lower tf and find more levels. Some are used to fine tune the higher levels. I end up cluttering up my chart with so many levels, I end up being rather confused than having a clear view. Thanks again for all the answers. I'll put more time to study this stuff before I bug any of you experienced supply/demand traders. Cheers,
Good Morning...at least it is morning for me

Multi-timeframe analysis is primarily to fine tune an entry. Attached are three charts showing the same zone. Of course you can fine tune yourself right out of a position. So you have to determine how far down you can go.

So if you are trading 4h charts fine tune to where it makes sense. Sometimes you will find the exact pip a decision was made. Keep in mind that may not mean the same pip will do it again.

Same thing if you are trading 15m charts. But if you try to layout every zone on every timeframe on one chart you would run out of room to trade. We just pick the ones that look promising with the odds in our favor and trade. In this way every trade works perfectly, whether we win or fail with it. I have had a lot of perfect trades that lost points.

Now I am preaching......

If we can be just as proud of a failed trade as we are of a winning trade because we executed a plan perfectly...Then we are trading well. My opinion anyway, at times tough to do.

Rufus needs to get off the pulpit.

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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #6,126
  • Aug 11, 2014 1:09pm Aug 11, 2014 1:09pm
Hey Rufus,
I also agree more with this statement ! " Personally I don't believe there is any one correct way of trading supply/demand. We all have our own path". I too use a bit of the FIB and some top down multiple TF analysis. Plus i will will trade in different TF's 15m, 30m, 60m.. even the 1m (just have to increase my position size)
This statement: The spike was institutions clearing out retail orders to fill theirs.. Seeing and understanding this move,,,then the willingness to come back in, take another position, aggressive to be sure, alongside the institutional money... can be a great trade. Got to love those spikes.

As always Rufus .. great stuff !


Hi Winston
Your statement: I start from as high as the weekly chart and move all the way down to the 1 minute chart….As stated earlier I definitely an advocate of a top down approach. I also use FIB’s in multiple TF analysis. FIB Clusters from multiple TF matched to a Supply / Demand levels can be very strong, especially when they are stacked
Your statement: Power most in control (supply or demand). Great way to see directional bias.

Great points Winston!!

Nice to see some activity on this tread, I just have to post a few charts myself

TSD
  • #6,127
  • Aug 11, 2014 6:51pm Aug 11, 2014 6:51pm
MTF analysis is helpful but it is not a panacea. What do I mean by this? When I analyze a pair from weekly down to the 1 minute it really serves one purpose. It gets me in touch with the pair. This also means I'm not always necessarily trading with the so-called "trend". Someone said that their chart became cluttered with all the zones marked. I can understand that. When I do MTF analysis I use sometimes 3 charts of the same pair. Attached is my 15 minute of AUDUSD. I'm waiting for PA to get to one of the marked zones. When it gets to a zone I will look at it on m5 and m1 for entry.

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  • #6,128
  • Aug 11, 2014 6:57pm Aug 11, 2014 6:57pm
One other thing. I concentrate on only several pairs at the most. EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD are the ones I mostly look at. I think you can find the pertinent zones on any pair. If our looking at 15 or 20 pairs (I'm not bashing anyone who is) and your having a hard time then just look at a few pairs. Kenneth Lee concentrated mostly on AUDUSD. It continues to be one of my favorite pairs as it can be quite active during the Asian session.
  • #6,129
  • Aug 11, 2014 7:33pm Aug 11, 2014 7:33pm
Sold AUDUSD on retrace after it blew through demand zone.
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  • #6,130
  • Aug 11, 2014 9:11pm Aug 11, 2014 9:11pm
Quoting Winston Reed
MTF analysis is helpful but it is not a panacea. What do I mean by this? When I analyze a pair from weekly down to the 1 minute it really serves one purpose. It gets me in touch with the pair. This also means I'm not always necessarily trading with the so-called "trend". Someone said that their chart became cluttered with all the zones marked. I can understand that. When I do MTF analysis I use sometimes 3 charts of the same pair. Attached is my 15 minute of AUDUSD. I'm waiting for PA to get to one of the marked zones. When it gets to a zone I will...
What ever Great stuff thou Winston
  • #6,131
  • Aug 11, 2014 9:45pm Aug 11, 2014 9:45pm
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  • #6,132
  • Aug 12, 2014 5:51am Aug 12, 2014 5:51am
Here are couple of trades I took yesterday on EURUSD based M30 S&D and using multiple timeframe analysis to maximize Risk to Reward Ratio.
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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #6,133
  • Aug 12, 2014 5:54am Aug 12, 2014 5:54am
EURJPY M30 SUPPLY ZONE

Result +2.10R
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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #6,134
  • Aug 12, 2014 6:55am Aug 12, 2014 6:55am
"Losses are not mistakes, they are the occasional and inevitable consequence of exposing oneself to risk"

"It is only the possibility of loss that creates the opportunity for the winners that eventually occur"

"Success can be built upon repeated failures when the failures aren't taken personally; likewise, failure can be built on repeated successes when the successes are taken personally."


So here are couple of losing trades too.

USDCHF M30 SUPPLY ZONE - Result -1.0R

EURUSD M30 DEMAND ZONE - Result -1.0R
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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #6,135
  • Aug 12, 2014 8:36am Aug 12, 2014 8:36am
Quoting alifari
"Losses are not mistakes, they are the occasional and inevitable consequence of exposing oneself to risk" "It is only the possibility of loss that creates the opportunity for the winners that eventually occur" "Success can be built upon repeated failures when the failures aren't taken personally; likewise, failure can be built on repeated successes when the successes are taken personally." So here are couple of losing trades too. USDCHF M30 SUPPLY ZONE - Result -1.0R EURUSD M30 DEMAND ZONE - Result -1.0R {image} {image}
Super trading and super honesty.

I believe that the sooner a trader can come to grips with the fact that losing trades are a part of a traders life and not necessarily indicative of your abilities, the closer we are to the type of traders lifestyle we are endeavoring to have.

Sometimes changing terminology will help some. Instead of referring to them as losing trades, we can call them failed trades. The way I see it, if you executed a plan perfectly and the trade moves against you, what makes that a loser. To me a failed trade. It may help some to simply change the way we speak of them.

Of course this isn't necessary for all. But if a trader grew up being told that "losing" is bad or "stay away from losers" , I guess my point is clear.

Once again great job. In some regards a pending order is harder to put out there then watching the chart and entering live trades. Almost all mine are PO's as well
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #6,136
  • Aug 12, 2014 9:15am Aug 12, 2014 9:15am
Hi, Alifari:

i'm your subscriber, been following your nice trades

but these two pending seems problematic as the levels don't seem significant

the UC level is a FTR, but one after a local spike down (instead of an engulf). the SR flip is a good target, but the entry seems better to be 'current' price on chart.

might not even worthy 1 cent, just now i realised for our SD PA traders, most of failure trades have objective reasons, if we look into them. finally, we should reach a stage that only 1 or 2 out of 10 trades are losers according to my observations of lovejoy and IF.

Quoting alifari
"Losses are not mistakes, they are the occasional and inevitable consequence of exposing oneself to risk" "It is only the possibility of loss that creates the opportunity for the winners that eventually occur" "Success can be built upon repeated failures when the failures aren't taken personally; likewise, failure can be built on repeated successes when the successes are taken personally." So here are couple of losing trades too. USDCHF M30 SUPPLY ZONE - Result -1.0R EURUSD M30 DEMAND ZONE - Result -1.0R {image} {image}
  • #6,137
  • Aug 12, 2014 9:21am Aug 12, 2014 9:21am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} Super trading and super honesty. I believe that the sooner a trader can come to grips with the fact that losing trades are a part of a traders life and not necessarily indicative of your abilities, the closer we are to the type of traders lifestyle we are endeavoring to have. Sometimes changing terminology will help some. Instead of referring to them as losing trades, we can call them failed trades. The way I see it, if you executed a plan perfectly and the trade moves against you, what makes that a loser. To me a failed trade. It may help...
I agree with your comments and suggestions and it depends upon each individual how they cope with a losing trade. One of the most important thing a trader needs to understand that trading is a game of probabilities and I keep on reminding myself that everyday:

Here are some of my favorite quotes, which I read every once in a while to keep my mind calm & focus.

"When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right and wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance"

"Trading is all about probabilities, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. If you have the edge, you ARE marching forward"

"You have to know your setups and their probabilities. Then, once you see them you must act with conviction and without hesitation"
The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #6,138
  • Aug 12, 2014 10:07am Aug 12, 2014 10:07am
Quoting charvo
Hi, Alifari: i'm your subscriber, been following your nice trades but these two pending seems problematic as the levels don't seem significant the UC level is a FTR, but one after a local spike down (instead of an engulf). the SR flip is a good target, but the entry seems better to be 'current' price on chart. might not even worthy 1 cent, just now i realised for our SD PA traders, most of failure trades have objective reasons, if we look into them. finally, we should reach a stage that only 1 or 2 out of 10 trades are losers according to my observations...
Thanks for your query. I guess you are referring to USDCHF failed trade, the level was good according to my limited knowledge of S&D and price action (see notes on chart)

As regards to your question regarding FTR or spike down or engulf, I really don't go into all this terminology and try to keep it simple. All I look for in S&D zones are whether price left the zone with momentum and in doing so broke any support level, or price made a new lower low for sell and higher high for buy. How price is approaching the zone and whether there is enough space for a better risk to reward ratio.

After watching charts for so many years and losing hundreds of trades and trying different system, I came to realize that no matter how good our technical analysis or fundamental analysis are there are only going to be three outcome of any given trade, 1) winner 2) loser 3) breakeven and it's not about how many pips we make or what your success rate is, it's all about risk to reward ratio. When I take a trade, I know that the maximum I could lose on a trade is 1R (based on my risk) and as the trade goes in my favor I minimize my risk, while my average reward remain about 2R, so in the long run chances are I will come out ahead. That is the reason, I don't try to by extra picky on trades, some days I take 10 to 15 trades and some days none, depend on the price action and volatility. It's all about developing a system which suits you best and above all makes you money.

Here are type of trades, I am looking for, might not make much sense or good zones to some, but with a 2R reward ratio, these trades could have easily made 4 to 5 R on just one pair.
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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #6,139
  • Aug 12, 2014 10:11am Aug 12, 2014 10:11am
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  • #6,140
  • Aug 12, 2014 12:48pm Aug 12, 2014 12:48pm
Attn: Charvo,

Here is the kind of thought process I go thru before taking a trade. Not the best of trade that I am proud of, but just trying to keep it simple and not looking for complicated terminologies to execute a trade.

USDJPY M5 SUPPLY ZONE

Result = Breakeven

Comments on chart:

Any thoughts after the fact is very easy to give any reasoning cause we know what the price did. Since the entry was spot on, trade management not so good, so here are possible reasons, I could come up with.

1) Should have closed trade at 1R profit
2) To greedy should have opted for 2R my usual tp target
3) Should have opted to get out at this zone as it is a QM structure.

But here were actual reason before taking a trade:
1) M5 demand turned supply zone (swap zone) and nice drop with momentum plus this level has lot of history.
2) SL placed above this last demand zone giving little bit more room for trade to workout.
3) Expecting price to hit this fresh M5 demand zone and about 3R

And as I said earlier that there are only 3 possible outcome of any trade, so this turned as breakeven, so need to work on better trade management, if I have to run trades beyond 2R so that same mistakes are not repeated again.
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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
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