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The Coin-Flip Theory

  • #281
  • Aug 6, 2014 7:28am Aug 6, 2014 7:28am
Quoting sinexcellent
{quote} ok guys, i dont know what you are talking about... can you please enlight me or please explain things out to newbie like me.. >_<
Sin...
Don't want to derail Jysticim's thread talking about Nadex. Just search FF for "Nadex" and you can find several threads. If you have a specific question you can PM me.
  • #282
  • Aug 6, 2014 7:45am Aug 6, 2014 7:45am
Quoting victor_ray
Hello Tanaka, The author said I can pick any candle I want .. as long as it the same candle everyday.
True statement. Jysticim has said over and over, "it's a random entry", just be consistent.
As I mentioned earlier, I'm using the Tokyo open as I'm unable to trade the London.
I have two pairs going you can see in my trade explorers. They may flame out...or not.
  • #283
  • Aug 6, 2014 3:18pm Aug 6, 2014 3:18pm
Hope you guys enjoying the thread.
  • #284
  • Aug 6, 2014 3:29pm Aug 6, 2014 3:29pm
Quoting Jysticim
Hope you guys enjoying the thread.
I'm enjoying today that's for sure. 130 pips up on GbpAud today. And 50 on EurJpy
  • #285
  • Aug 6, 2014 3:40pm Aug 6, 2014 3:40pm
Hi guys..
Here is my trading result using coin-flip in real account from 22 July 2014 until now, I start from $102.52.
Hopefully can be consistent..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 839 KB
  • #286
  • Aug 6, 2014 3:52pm Aug 6, 2014 3:52pm
Quoting berda
Hi guys.. Here is my trading result using coin-flip in real account from 22 July 2014 until now, I start from $102.52. Hopefully can be consistent.. {image}
Well done Berda...
  • #287
  • Aug 6, 2014 6:56pm Aug 6, 2014 6:56pm
has anyone checked the validity of the claimed performance?

for example, i cannot replicate the entry/exit of day 2 on which 805 pips were reaped.

i admit i have not backtested, but i believe a simple backtest may prove it is not (far from) as promising as Jysticim describes.

according to its performance, this is absolutely NOT a coin-flip system that is 50% vs 50% with 1:1 on win lose size, which is of coz not the case here!

here you do have 50% vs 50% win rate (approx.), but the losing bet is only 34 pip, but winning bet is average maybe 100 or 150, doesn't Jysticim realise it is absolutely NOT a coin-flip but a high positive expectancy system? in reality it is not, i believe, but why it won in July? because of luck, probably

well, anyway, a backtest (very easy, now that you have EA) can easily prove who's wrong.

Quoting Jysticim
The results realistic point of view: From 17-June till Today Leverage 1:200 Start with 100$ Sell Day 1: Open 1.35619 Close 1.35531 Gain: 88 Pips 88 Pips x (0.00001/1.35531)x(100$ x 200) = 13$ +100$ = 113$ Buy Day 2: Open 1.35570 Close 1.36375 Gain: 805 Pips 805 Pips x (0.00001/1.36375)x(113$ x 200) = 134$ +113$ = 247$
  • #288
  • Aug 6, 2014 7:55pm Aug 6, 2014 7:55pm
someone help me, I confuse "- Trade @ the second candle after the opening of the London session (so you don't get disturbed by opening breakouts)." give me an example with times
  • #289
  • Aug 6, 2014 8:24pm Aug 6, 2014 8:24pm
Quoting charvo
but the losing bet is only 34 pip, but winning bet is average maybe 100 or 150, doesn't Jysticim realise it is absolutely NOT a coin-flip but a high positive expectancy system? in reality it is not, i believe, but why it won in July? because of luck, probably well, anyway, a backtest (very easy, now that you have EA) can easily prove who's wrong. {quote}
Uh just so you know live play and Jysticim 's trading discretion is beyond number.

Just saying your profile said: Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me)

You might want to remove that title if you want to people to believe that you believe in backtest....

What you read doesn't make sense because in Live it was probably different....... aka discretionary... rule breaking (maybe he was just sleeping)........
etc.....

-------

Another tips just to save you "time" . Let just say perfectly understand the inconsistency notation....

Will that understand help you win (aka lot of streak win?...). We all know if you risk 50% daily and "on average you keep wining" , definately you can get 27,000$... I don't need to backtest to know that's possible...

But what I don't know is the the future, if you value any of your life time ... you should just focus on getting those "streak"..by not doing random thing...
Instead of verify YUP backtest prove 100$ into 27,000$ = lucky one time... So you will get lucky this month.....

Better pray hard...

----------

I have told the author before to rewrite the 1st post properly, barely anyone can understand it with a bunch of "inconsistent" math notation.....
  • #290
  • Aug 6, 2014 8:46pm Aug 6, 2014 8:46pm
Quoting abdulazis
someone help me, I confuse "- Trade @ the second candle after the opening of the London session (so you don't get disturbed by opening breakouts)." give me an example with times
whats the confusion???

London open is at 8am(local time) which is currently GMT +1 due to DST, otherwise it is GMT. so ignore the 8am-9am candle and trade the next candle. What is so confusing?
  • #291
  • Aug 6, 2014 10:41pm Aug 6, 2014 10:41pm
you completely missed my point, and my signature title has nothing related with this discussion. even i'm a loser, my comments need to be judged with logical reasons, right?

you are right that his 1st post is unclear (though i understand what he's saying), i'm just surprised that many ppl still follow w/o a clear layout.

all his idea is this, use a system, 50% or so win rate, with 1:5(or 6,7, 8...) loser/winner betting size, one can run into a lucky streak and get rich. geez, you really think that's doable? yeah, show me live proof.

btw, {a system, 50% or so win rate, with 1:5(or 6,7, 8...) loser/winner betting size} is not a coin flip system (ironically the thread title......), it is an awesome system that is N/A here in this thread. with such a system at hand, you need no such gimmick like 50% betting size to quickly become a millionaire.

in other words, the system in this thread's 1st post won't give you what OP claimed.

Quoting victor_ray
{quote} Uh just so you know live play and Jysticim 's trading discretion is beyond number. Just saying your profile said: Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me) You might want to remove that title if you want to people to believe that you believe in backtest.... What you read doesn't make sense because in Live it was probably different....... aka discretionary... rule breaking (maybe he was just sleeping)........ etc..... ------- Another tips just to save you "time" . Let just say perfectly understand the inconsistency notation.... Will that understand...
  • #292
  • Aug 7, 2014 12:41am Aug 7, 2014 12:41am
Day 7: August 6, 2014
Result: -15.17%

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-6-2014 - Closed Trade.png Size: 9 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-6-2014 - Log.png Size: 66 KB


Day 8: August 7, 2014
Bet Loaded.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-7-2014 - Entry.png Size: 80 KB
  • #293
  • Aug 7, 2014 1:27am Aug 7, 2014 1:27am
@ Charvo

When your entry is random the outcome has two ways. Or the market goes up or the market goes down = 50% chance of winning.
Because you use yesterdays high/low you cut in that 50% losing. You still lose 50% but you lose like 10 pips instead of gaining 20 pips when winning.
So when you have a winrate of 50% you still can gain.
  • #294
  • Aug 7, 2014 1:33am Aug 7, 2014 1:33am
The market can also goes flat, so your stop can be hit when you go long and then you go short.

The win can also be 0% with 2 losing trades in the same day, with 20 pips loss.
  • #295
  • Aug 7, 2014 1:45am Aug 7, 2014 1:45am
When the market goes flat you won't get stopped out.
  • #296
  • Aug 7, 2014 2:14am Aug 7, 2014 2:14am
Quoting Alberto_Jazz
The market can also goes flat, so your stop can be hit when you go long and then you go short. The win can also be 0% with 2 losing trades in the same day, with 20 pips loss.
That's why you have SL above the Daily Average Range... so that way market goes flat you either win..3 pip or lose 3 pip...
  • #297
  • Aug 7, 2014 2:18am Aug 7, 2014 2:18am
hai Jysticim,

good thread you have here, but can u update the first post?

as i were reading through it, i get quite confuse about the coin flip system. somehow i managed to understand it.
it will be useful for newcomers when they stumble upon your thread.
  • #298
  • Aug 7, 2014 6:08am Aug 7, 2014 6:08am
Quoting Jysticim
When the market goes flat you won't get stopped out.
Since the rules are fixed, can you backtest it on previous few months to see the results..Somewhere I find results for Mar-14, but I think you should make excel sheet to demonstrate the results of any month
  • #299
  • Aug 7, 2014 6:17am Aug 7, 2014 6:17am
Quoting victor_ray
Day 7: August 6, 2014 Result: -15.17% {image} {image} Day 8: August 7, 2014 Bet Loaded. {image}
6 losing days in a row. Wow! Not what any of us would have expected... Thanks for taking the time for this experiment, Victor!
  • #300
  • Aug 7, 2014 1:48pm Aug 7, 2014 1:48pm
Had a trade going today on the EurJpy. 28 pip hard stop. Price moved 40 pips in my favor and then came back and stopped me out.

Wondering about the advisability of moving to BE once distance equal to stop has been reached.
Any thoughts?
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