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MGH System (Martingale Grid & Hedging)

  • #201
  • Aug 5, 2014 12:42pm Aug 5, 2014 12:42pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} Okay, so now that we're at least looking at the same picture, what would you do instead of the x2 buys
are you following me? see post 197.
  • #202
  • Aug 5, 2014 12:46pm Aug 5, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting GoldenEA
{quote} in this case, x1 buy is tp and x4 buy were opened, price continued up closed all 6 orders. we start again. where is the larger gap?

What x1 and x4 buys are you referring to. On the pic, the x1 are sells...I'm really lost
  • #203
  • Aug 5, 2014 12:51pm Aug 5, 2014 12:51pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} What x1 and x4 buys are you referring to. On the pic, the x1 are sells...I'm really lost
read my post at 184. you won't be lost.
now i am looking for worst case for this approach. any comments?
  • #204
  • Aug 5, 2014 12:58pm Aug 5, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting GoldenEA
{quote} read my post at 184. you won't be lost. now i am looking for worst case for this approach. any comments?
Quoting GoldenEA
{quote}should we do something like this?
if we have 3 1x sell and 3 2x buy, three options we can do.
1. if market move up enough, we close all orders with profit.
2. if market move down enough, 3 1x sell tp. all sell orders closed. then we open 4x sell orders only. wait for market down enough to close all in profit.
3. if market not moved, just watch the paint dry.
this way, we only have two grid, sell and buy. always set tp for small lot orders.
any comments?
From your initial comment I thought you were presenting a different approach with items 1-3, but perhaps you were just summarizing. If so, my mistake.
That's why in my initial response to you I mentioned "we were already doing that".

So, am I right in understanding that the change you had in mind is just point 3. Not to open the inside grids?
  • #205
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:00pm Aug 5, 2014 1:00pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} {quote} if we have 3 1x sell and 3 2x buy, three options we can do. 1. if market move up enough, we close all orders with profit. 2. if market move down enough, 3 1x sell tp. all sell orders closed. then we open 4x sell orders only. wait for market down enough to close all in profit. 3. if market not moved, just watch the paint dry. this way, we only have two grid, sell and buy. always set tp for small lot orders. any comments?
From your initial comment I thought you were presenting a different approach with items 1-3, but perhaps you were just summarizing. If so, my mistake. That's why in my initial response to you I mentioned "we were already doing that". So, am I right in understanding that the change you had in mind is just point 3. Not to open the inside grids?[/quote]


If this is the case, are you trying to cut down on DD with fewer high multiple trades
  • #206
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:03pm Aug 5, 2014 1:03pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} From your initial comment I thought you were presenting a different approach with items 1-3, but perhaps you were just summarizing. If so, my mistake. That's why in my initial response to you I mentioned "we were already doing that". So, am I right in understanding that the change you had in mind is just point 3. Not to open the inside grids?
If this is the case, are you trying to cut down on DD with fewer high multiple trades[/quote]
nothing else, just try to make it simple. sorry kfx if i highjacked your threads.
  • #207
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:10pm Aug 5, 2014 1:10pm
Quoting GoldenEA
{quote} If this is the case, are you trying to cut down on DD with fewer high multiple trades
nothing else, just try to make it simple. sorry kfx if i highjacked your threads.[/quote]


Whew!!! I thought I was losing my mind.
Now...to comment...cutting down on orders would be a great thing in itself. Keep us away from margin.
Referring back to my pic on the E/F pair. I've copied it again but zoomed out.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFiH1.png Size: 118 KB


At the very top where it says 60 pips, that is where I finally got my net 100 pips to close the series. Just a few pips short of that and price would have fallen. So without the inside grids you'd be waiting for one of the outsides to hit TP. In this case it was a few weeks later when price moved on up.
So I guess it becomes a question of waiting out the range bound periods.
  • #208
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:10pm Aug 5, 2014 1:10pm
Quoting GoldenEA
nothing else, just try to make it simple. sorry kfx if i highjacked your threads.
No problem, the purpose of this thread is to learn and improve the system, so keep with your good work guys.
  • #209
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:15pm Aug 5, 2014 1:15pm
tell me what is your trades opened process from left to top (60pips)?
  • #210
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:16pm Aug 5, 2014 1:16pm
Quoting Kfx
{quote} No problem, the purpose of this thread is to learn and improve the system, so keep with your good work guys.
This is a pretty involved process you've come up with here Kfx...Kudos
It's going to be hard to quantify (at least for me) the risk involved. With most Martingales it's fairly easy to figure out when and where you might (or might have on backtest) hit the "Death" trade and wipe out your account. But with this, we're banking so many TP's along the way, it's giving a lot of relief to our margin level.

T'will be interesting.
  • #211
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:20pm Aug 5, 2014 1:20pm
Quoting GoldenEA
tell me what is your trades opened process from left to top (60pips)?

Starting with that first red vertical line (that's the start of a new series), I have 3 sells (sells are in red, buys in blues). Obviously price moved higher so no TP and at level 4 or 1.2180 I started my x2 buys. They moved up pretty steadily banking TP's along the way. Of course the sells were getting deeper in the hold. At the top, when hitting that last 60 pip TP, I was able to net all the TP's against the floating loss from the sells of 540 pips to get my + 100 and close the series.

Hope that makes sense.
  • #212
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:27pm Aug 5, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} Starting with that first red vertical line (that's the start of a new series), I have 3 sells (sells are in red, buys in blues). Obviously price moved higher so no TP and at level 4 or 1.2180 I started my x2 buys. They moved up pretty steadily banking TP's along the way. Of course the sells were getting deeper in the hold. At the top, when hitting that last 60 pip TP, I was able to net all the TP's against the floating loss from the sells of 540 pips to get my + 100 and close the series. Hope that makes sense.
man, once you start x2 buy i would not close or tp buy trades until i close all trades in profit. you follow me?
  • #213
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:32pm Aug 5, 2014 1:32pm
Quoting GoldenEA
{quote} man, once you start x2 buy i would not close or tp buy trades until i close all trades in profit. you follow me?

That would be awesome in hindsight, but what do you do with all those x2 buys if price turns back down. How far do you let those winners turn to losers before closing?
It might work, but you know, Murphy's law.
  • #214
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:41pm Aug 5, 2014 1:41pm
Look on the bright side Golden.
During our discussion your trade explorer has gone for a 50% return to 53%...you are welcome.
  • #215
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:56pm Aug 5, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} That would be awesome in hindsight, but what do you do with all those x2 buys if price turns back down. How far do you let those winners turn to losers before closing? It might work, but you know, Murphy's law.
wait for price retrace to tp all x1 sell then open x4 sell. i think this is the worst case price stuck in the range
  • #216
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:07pm Aug 5, 2014 2:07pm
Quoting GoldenEA
{quote} wait for price retrace to tp all x1 sell then open x4 sell. i think this is the worst case price stuck in the range

I'd be afraid you'd hit some serious drawdown if price starts ranging after starting the x4's. Would be interesting to see on a chart though...hint...hint
  • #217
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:25am Aug 6, 2014 1:25am
looking at the strategy, it feels a bit similar to this doesn't it? except for the 3 levels thingy (refer pdf)

if market stuck in range within our 3 buy and 3 sell levels, we will end up in big drawdown, am i rite?
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Hedging Lot Strategy.pdf   29 KB | 1,382 downloads
  • #218
  • Aug 6, 2014 2:37am Aug 6, 2014 2:37am
Hy guys.....today very interesting scenario on GBPNZD (biggest ADR)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_61 Aug. 06 11.22.jpg Size: 233 KB


as you can see, respecting the fibo filter, I open only sell above 50% fibo and buy below.
So 1,2,3 sell and tp at arrow 1.
Then sell again at 4 and tp at arrow 2.
Then buy at 5 and......?????.....4 big news from England!!!!!!
Perhaps was better don't open long at point 5 (1.99600)?...I think so....but.....
suppose that long at 5 was opened.
Price fall down....must we open a sell x2 at 1.99400? Then (TP sell at 1.99300, point 7) open after a new buy at point 8 respecting the strategy?

What do you think about it?

p.s. vertical red dotted line, is the Frankfurt open. I use this strategy only from 8.00 GMT+2 (summer hour), GMT+1 (winterly).
My mt4 is actually GMT+3, so I put the line at 9.00.
  • #219
  • Aug 6, 2014 3:50am Aug 6, 2014 3:50am
Quoting hewtwok
looking at the strategy, it feels a bit similar to this doesn't it? except for the 3 levels thingy (refer pdf) if market stuck in range within our 3 buy and 3 sell levels, we will end up in big drawdown, am i rite? {image}
The problem with the PDF system is that you get very litte profit Vs. high DD.

In my system you can get big DD (depending on your risk %) and bid profit (depending on your risk % too)

I do not like grids that risk all our account, you should always have a maximum level of risk to know where close all positions. This should be studied in each pair independently.

Besides that both systems also have many differences as you can see. For example in my sytstem I leave a grid level space to prevent the price bounce in the same S/R again and again.
  • #220
  • Aug 6, 2014 4:06am Aug 6, 2014 4:06am
Quoting Kfx
{quote} Nice one. Let see what happen when news come.
Hi boss ...
what do you think about the dangerous situation in the picture?
Is it ok for you to open sell 2 at 1.99400 and then a x1 buy at 8?

Updating.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_62 Aug. 06 13.01.jpg Size: 207 KB


Let'see the importance of 50% fibo. At this level we can close both x1 buy (point 5 and 8) as pointed out with the arrow.
p.s. sorry for my english!
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