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The Coin-Flip Theory

  • #261
  • Edited 1:20am Aug 5, 2014 1:03am | Edited 1:20am
Quoting sinexcellent
if the loss percentage is bigger than the win percentage. are you gonna still make it? or are you still gonna do it? well ?? does anyone have conclusion or have some input? let's discuss it here.

Consider this is a 80$ (note because you rarely lose all 100$....) so basically you risk 80$ per month for a chance of getting around 300$ for USA broker 50:1 leverage. OR 3000$ for 200:1 leverage or if you lucky 2 month in a row.. you would get 10,000$....

Obviously it's all depend on you having a job or not. If you have a job losing 80$ is not a big deal, consider this -80$ loss as ONE of the many 1000$ you will lose in the future. (what I mean is if you think losing 80$ is big now... wait until you own a 200,000$ account.. you will be losing 1000$ daily..on average so 80$ is nothing in the FUTURE so what's 80$ loss monthly now compare to 1000$ future daily loss average."


That's how I view gambling..method. In the end you will make it all back when you are rich..., these are just "cost of business" need to lose some to get some.

Seriously if you fear losing 80$ ...now you definitely going to have SERIOUS issue losing 1000$ ....in the future because you value money too much...



----
If you want a different perspective then think about this:

What if I were to say : If you play the SAFE way... like 20% of the people in forex factory ( lol did you think I was going to say 95% ? lollll lot of newbies don't play safe oh no the irony.... the pro play safe because the pro fear lollll )

Anyway as I was saying, If you play the SAFE way (unless you have a HUGE capital which mean you either a Master or PHD etc.. or some lucky millionaire want to invest in you then you will Never be rich.

If you want million gain you got to risk 1 million$... that's how it work in the real world. Warren Buffett is no exception .. He's very greedy when majority are afraid...

You can't hope to risk 80$ to get 1 million$ do you lol.. the world will be a cube when you make that happen....

However, you can risk 80$ to get 80$ .. and then risk 160$ to get 160$ etc. eventually you will get up to 500,000$ account. Then you risk 500,000$ to get 500,000$ which mean you have 1 million$ in your hand.....
  • #262
  • Aug 5, 2014 8:47am Aug 5, 2014 8:47am
Started monday. Profit upon closure today.
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/patm...isQDc8J5zP4Qck
  • #263
  • Aug 5, 2014 11:34am Aug 5, 2014 11:34am
Quoting Jysticim
The Coin-Flip Theory Hello everybody, I would like to tell you something about this strategy http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=494447 (more a system, because there is no MM included etc.) I am a student 19 years old, I study economics. I traded demo since my 16th and real when I was 18 years old. I saw alot strategy's and systems, made my own out of others and after alot tweaking it was finally done. It made and still does make a steady x% monthly. Everyday I had to do the same thing preparation mental, read somewhat about...

could you please tell me what is your lot size for calculating the total amount(in $) earned or total loss(in $) incurred.
I try to understand your calculations, I couldn't make any sense of it. Could you please post how much is the lot size for each trade.

Thanks in advance.
  • #264
  • Aug 5, 2014 11:51am Aug 5, 2014 11:51am
actually from my point of view, this strategy is much more better (i think) in binary then in forex.

well the reason is kinda simple :

pros :

  1. we call or put, just put the time limit. and its done.
  2. our risk is only the money we use to buy.
  3. we don't really care if the money is just different 1 pips, and we gain 75%-90% profits.

cons :

  1. the profit is already determined from 75% to 90% from the money we use to buy
  2. different 1 pips from entry then we lose the money we use to buy.

example :
we buy 20 USD 1.3383 to "put" (i think put is for sell here) wait for another 23 hours. then we wait the result using this strategy.

been trying using this for a couple days hope the result is as i want.

  • #265
  • Aug 5, 2014 12:53pm Aug 5, 2014 12:53pm
This Thread and method is very interesting.

#civilpes2001

with respect to the post#1 here is my understanding

You just need to calculate the amount you would like to risk i.e 50% of your balance (say 100 $)
In Order to make a loss of 50 $ with 34 pip stop loss, you will have to place an order of 0.14 Standard lot
If you hit the stop loss the balance would be down to 50 $ and in order to risk 25$ for 34 pip stoploss, you need to use a lot size of 0.07 Standard lot.

So before placing the trade, you can calculate the lot size based on the amount available and the amount you wish to risk.

#Jysticim
Hope the above is correct.
  • #266
  • Aug 5, 2014 12:59pm Aug 5, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting sinexcellent
actually from my point of view, this strategy is much more better (i think) in binary then in forex. well the reason is kinda simple : pros : we call or put, just put the time limit. and its done. our risk is only the money we use to buy. we don't really care if the money is just different 1 pips, and we gain 75%-90% profits. cons : the profit is already determined from 75% to 90% from the money we use to buy different 1 pips from entry then we lose the money we use to buy. example : we buy 20 USD 1.3383 to "put" (i think put is for sell here) wait...

The problem with a binary solution is that this strategy is based on a random outcome. The OP is making what is basically a random entry and then striving to tip the scales to profitability by having the losing trades lose less than the winning trades win.
In binary, you're doing just the opposite. You're risking $1.00 (the losing side) to hopefully gain 60-85 cents (winning side). Obviously in this type of risk:reward you need to have your win % well over 50%.
  • #267
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:10pm Aug 5, 2014 2:10pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} The problem with a binary solution is that this strategy is based on a random outcome. The OP is making what is basically a random entry and then striving to tip the scales to profitability by having the losing trades lose less than the winning trades win. In binary, you're doing just the opposite. You're risking $1.00 (the losing side) to hopefully gain 60-85 cents (winning side). Obviously in this type of risk:reward you need to have your win % well over 50%.
i'm agree with you. thx for remind me out..

you are right, we need high chance of winning percentage if you want to success in binary. (dam how come i forget as important as that)..
  • #268
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:48pm Aug 5, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting sinexcellent
{quote} i'm agree with you. thx for remind me out.. you are right, we need high chance of winning percentage if you want to success in binary. (dam how come i forget as important as that)..
Lol, I've spent my fair share on Binary trading...some good, some bad. Nadex is your best bet there. But that's another story...
  • #269
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:49pm Aug 5, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting sinexcellent
{quote} i'm agree with you. thx for remind me out.. you are right, we need high chance of winning percentage if you want to success in binary. (dam how come i forget as important as that)..
Nadex offers American style binaries there the option itself is an asset that can be bought/sold at a premium. That means the outcome is 100% dependent on how the option settles. If the option is ITM, you can bank it and collect. For example, you can start with an OTM option for $10, let it get in the money and possibly sell it for more than you paid for it. Hence getting better than 1:1 r:r. If the option settles in the ITM you'd get paid the face value of $100 minus the premium cost which in this example was $10 netting you $90. A little less than because of fees. And as was mentioned, at settlement time you only need to be 1 pip beyond the strike price to be exercised. But the beauty here is why wait to expiration and chance the option getting ATM or OTM? Just sell it (or buy it back if short) and book the profits. IMHO, Nadex binary options are ideal for applying "coin flip" theory because you can get positive r:r instead of the negative r:r crap offered up by offshore/Cypruss type bucket shops. That way profitability is possible on accuracy less than 50% as long as the r:r is positive.
  • #270
  • Aug 5, 2014 3:06pm Aug 5, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting JR97
{quote} Nadex offers American style binaries there the option itself is an asset that can be bought/sold at a premium. That means the outcome is 100% dependent on how the option settles. If the option is ITM, you can bank it and collect. For example, you can start with an OTM option for $10, let it get in the money and possibly sell it for more than you paid for it. Hence getting better than 1:1 r:r. If the option settles in the ITM you'd get paid the face value of $100 minus the premium cost which in this example was $10 netting you $90. A little...
If you can get better than 1:3, than why not open two, opposite trades and wait until you net 1+$?
Too close for pips, switching to points.
  • #271
  • Aug 5, 2014 3:28pm Aug 5, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting JR97
{quote} Nadex offers American style binaries there the option itself is an asset that can be bought/sold at a premium. That means the outcome is 100% dependent on how the option settles. If the option is ITM, you can bank it and collect. For example, you can start with an OTM option for $10, let it get in the money and possibly sell it for more than you paid for it. Hence getting better than 1:1 r:r. If the option settles in the ITM you'd get paid the face value of $100 minus the premium cost which in this example was $10 netting you $90. A little...

The problem though is that to get that $10 option on Nadex, you're going to have to be 50 pips or more from your strike price, and then you need to get to that strike to get the 100 or a lot closer than when you started to even double up. Not much of a coin flip.
As I'm sure you know, to get an ATM binary on Nadex (which is what you need if we're really talking a coin flip scenario) you're going to pay around $54. So again your risking 54 to make 46. On a 50/50 coin flip...that's gonna end you up in the hole.
  • #272
  • Aug 5, 2014 3:29pm Aug 5, 2014 3:29pm
Quoting Thepipster
{quote} If you can get better than 1:3, than why not open two, opposite trades and wait until you net 1+$?

You can get 33:1 on Nadex...I've done it before. Just not very often.
It's a long shot at best.
  • #273
  • Aug 5, 2014 7:53pm Aug 5, 2014 7:53pm
Quoting yczzd
{quote} Hi, sinexcellent. Setting should be very simple. Rules：（Rule were a little changed to : ahead of one hour, in the closed position and the open orders. Of course, you can easily set the time. you need by adjust the parameters of LondonOpenTime) TimeFrame: H1 London opening: 9:00 (London DST,GMT+1) 1st Candle 9:00-10:00 (At the beginning of the candle we close the trade of yesterday) 2st Candle 10:00-11:00 (At the beginning of the candle we open the new trade) Buy if 1st candle is bullish Sell if 1st candle is bearish the original...
the EA does not open any trade as it should,why?
regards
fred
  • #274
  • Aug 5, 2014 8:03pm Aug 5, 2014 8:03pm
here is the EA set up,if everything correct as it should be?
thanks
fred
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.png Size: 262 KB
  • #275
  • Aug 5, 2014 9:12pm Aug 5, 2014 9:12pm
Well just know that you use 5 digit broker, and some EA are not code to apply to work with usa broker where you can NOT enter an order WITH a predefine sl and tp set.

What I mean by that is... you 1st "Make a buy/sell order with NO SL and NO TP" . Then you will MODIFY the order to a hard sl and hard tp.

Back in 2008 you are able to open a NEW order Menu and fill in everything : Lot size, SL AND TP .. in 1 screen . Then execute the order bam.. everything is set.

This also one of the reason why I don't deal with ea any more because I am unable to code an EA that can modify the "correct" order after it has been bet...

You can thank NFA regulation for that.
  • #276
  • Aug 5, 2014 9:14pm Aug 5, 2014 9:14pm
Quoting victor_ray
Well just know that you use 5 digit broker, and some EA are not code to apply to work with usa broker where you can NOT enter an order WITH a predefine sl and tp set. What I mean by that is... you 1st "Make a buy/sell order with NO SL and NO TP" . Then you will MODIFY the order to a hard sl and hard tp. Back in 2008 you are able to open a NEW order Menu and fill in everything : Lot size, SL AND TP .. in 1 screen . Then execute the order bam.. everything is set. This also one of the reason why I don't deal with ea any more because I am unable to...
ok i see,thanks
fred
  • #277
  • Edited Aug 6, 2014 1:23am Aug 5, 2014 9:23pm | Edited Aug 6, 2014 1:23am
Day 6: August 5, 2014
Result: -15.14%

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-5-2014 - Closed Trade.png Size: 10 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-5-2014 - Log.png Size: 64 KB


I can't believe it went down more than 25 pip...

Day 7: August 6, 2014

Bet Loaded:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8-6-2014 - Entry.png Size: 78 KB
  • #278
  • Aug 5, 2014 9:35pm Aug 5, 2014 9:35pm
Quoting victor_ray
Day 6: August 5, 2014 Result: -15.14% {image} {image} I can't believe it went down more than 25 pip...
Hello Victor,
you took not the correct Candle.
2 hours after London open.
The EURUD was red

Henri
  • #279
  • Aug 5, 2014 9:44pm Aug 5, 2014 9:44pm
Hello Tanaka,

The author said I can pick any candle I want .. as long as it the same candle everyday.
  • #280
  • Aug 6, 2014 1:15am Aug 6, 2014 1:15am
Quoting spyderman
{quote} You can get 33:1 on Nadex...I've done it before. Just not very often. It's a long shot at best.
ok guys, i dont know what you are talking about...

can you please enlight me or please explain things out to newbie like me.. >_<
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