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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #15,701
  • Aug 5, 2014 5:48am Aug 5, 2014 5:48am
Quoting infinitus
Spetsnaz veterans to launch ‘anti-Maidan council’ in Russia http://rt.com/politics/177752-russia...aidan-council/
Woah jeez, i never thought they would try to create revolution in Russia. I mean can they even have any chance of success? From all countries in the world western created revolution is most likely to fail in Russia one would think.
But if you really think about it, if there is enough will they can at least create bloody civil war. If Spectnaz are about to kill Russian citizens, being nazis or not, this will create spread of rebelion no matter what cause it will be. It has been done the same over several other countries and it worked. Once goverment forces start to repress people (no matter if they are backed by west to create revolution) it just spreads rebellion more. So i am really thinking globalists really think they can do it.
  • #15,702
  • Aug 5, 2014 5:51am Aug 5, 2014 5:51am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Will do. I was doing some research on it and i found out its extremely powerful tool for price direction when there is proper imbalance on market > pair. When there is for example 2:1 imbalance between asks and bids at same time price will go 99% of time in direction of side that is bigger until balance meets again. This imbalances aparently last between 10 seconds to 10 minutes. However i have not yet been able to spot one, and i am not sure if that is broker dependent becouse i found this information for FXCM broker only and a trader that...

If you are trading the US session you may have a hard or impossible time spotting it. That's because algorithms mask depth on purpose. However, that's what I learned in futures markets, so FX might be different. Also I am not sure if you even trade the US markets, but I suspect that you do.
  • #15,703
  • Aug 5, 2014 6:12am Aug 5, 2014 6:12am
Hi!

Targets:
~ 1.34600-700
~ 1.35000
~ 1.35300

Good risk:reward ratio.
IMO: If new low -> hunting long stops + opening new short positions -> possible bear trap -> short stop hunt -> new high

Bye!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.08.05. EurUsd H4.png Size: 39 KB
f(z)=z2+c
  • #15,704
  • Edited 8:04am Aug 5, 2014 7:50am | Edited 8:04am
EURUSD seems struggling around the monthly's support line - although the middle line of Bollinger Band has been touched.
I expect a turn around over 1.40, 1.45 now.
If not sudden abrupt price movements could be possible strong downside 1.30, 1.2780 at first..
Market price over 1.3490 should be give more confidence for the "world pool" (1.40>).
The investors favor could also have one eye of 38.2 Fib level (~1.3145).
Good aspects for making some scalping trades here & there temporarily.
...my two cents
FXcube

EURUSD, Monthly, 2014 August 05
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  • #15,705
  • Aug 5, 2014 8:10am Aug 5, 2014 8:10am
Quoting EuroTrader37
{quote} If you are trading the US session you may have a hard or impossible time spotting it. That's because algorithms mask depth on purpose. However, that's what I learned in futures markets, so FX might be different. Also I am not sure if you even trade the US markets, but I suspect that you do.
That is exactly what i was thinking. I know that imbalance on market depth is much easier to spot and its rather frequent on futures and other less-than-fx liquid markets but i have seen examples that its possible to spot it in FX too. With algos and so much liquidity in FX i am thinking its much less frequent, but i am not worried about that i just need confirmation that there is at least 1 liquidity gap per day on any (all) FX pairs, that would be enough to start developing alert indicator that would spot gap and give signal so one doesnt have to watch charts, which i image its rather impossible is liqudity gaps are rare.
  • #15,706
  • Aug 5, 2014 9:36am Aug 5, 2014 9:36am
Quoting hathor
Hi! Targets: ~ 1.34600-700 ~ 1.35000 ~ 1.35300 Good risk:reward ratio. IMO: If new low -> hunting long stops + opening new short positions -> possible bear trap -> short stop hunt -> new high Bye! {image}
IMO happening right now...but time will tell.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #15,707
  • Aug 5, 2014 10:00am Aug 5, 2014 10:00am
So much about engulfing candles precision hehe, failed 3 times on gold.
http://prntscr.com/49so9y

Well anyways like i said gold will drop to current bottom which it did. Now i am still staying bearish longer term but in mid-short term i have no view, but leaning towards bearish. The reason for this engulfing candle failures was becouse as gold edges lower it is testing very broad but strong demand zone, so it gets bumped from it and it will get even more edging lower to 1260, so if we stay in bear trend its going to be bumpy ride.
I have extended longer term bear target from 1260 to 1200 now but first current h4 bottom has to fail for that.
  • #15,708
  • Aug 5, 2014 10:02am Aug 5, 2014 10:02am
2013.11.11. Daily candle open: 1.33580 (also the lowest bull candle in Novemer)
2013.09.18. Daily candle open: 1.33560 (the biggest bull candle in September)

Today's lowest point at ECN broker: 1.33580

Edit: 5 weeks bull rally started from 1.33580 in 2013.nov-dec...
f(z)=z2+c
  • #15,709
  • Aug 5, 2014 12:50pm Aug 5, 2014 12:50pm
Quoting hathor
Hi! Targets: ~ 1.34600-700 ~ 1.35000 ~ 1.35300 Good risk:reward ratio. IMO: If new low -> hunting long stops + opening new short positions -> possible bear trap -> short stop hunt -> new high Bye! {image}

I am waiting for 3500-3550 since 3470 LOL

Something went wrong, I am wondering myself.


From a wave perspective, I hope (that sucks!) that todays move down is the B wave of an ABC-flat up (wave 4). The following impulsive C-wave may bring us up towards 3428 to 3489 (extended)

But it seems more like that the wave 4 is already finished and we are down for the wave 5, which may terminate towards the 3295 level. After that we would have a great chance to see the 3500-3550 resistance zone again.
  • #15,710
  • Aug 5, 2014 12:57pm Aug 5, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting janpec1000
So much about engulfing candles precision hehe, failed 3 times on gold. http://prntscr.com/49so9y Well anyways like i said gold will drop to current bottom which it did. Now i am still staying bearish longer term but in mid-short term i have no view, but leaning towards bearish. The reason for this engulfing candle failures was becouse as gold edges lower it is testing very broad but strong demand zone, so it gets bumped from it and it will get even more edging lower to 1260, so if we stay in bear trend its going to be bumpy ride. I have...

EW on Gold

2 day TF
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  • #15,711
  • Aug 5, 2014 12:58pm Aug 5, 2014 12:58pm
maybe this?

EW on EU

4h TF

obey the channel

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,712
  • Aug 5, 2014 12:59pm Aug 5, 2014 12:59pm
EW on EU

4h TF

wave 4 variations

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  • #15,713
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:04pm Aug 5, 2014 1:04pm
What a bull trap!!!
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  • #15,714
  • Aug 5, 2014 1:49pm Aug 5, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting infinitus
maybe this? EW on EU 4h TF obey the channel {image}
Hi Infinitus!

My theory/ballad/sci-fi/script/etc:
It's just an everyday psychological trick I think...this will be the usual turn before everybody would be satisfied (like 1.4 and so on)...and turning now 'looks' early, but actually a setup is forming accordingly to bull's plan...the best turnovers are the connected double-traps imo. Now we had first a bull trap (cleaning up the bull herd), while a huge herd of bear was born. Probably the stopped out bulls joined the bears, or just sit and watch the lower levels for entry...but they will late from this train, which is going to clean up the bears. While the bears expect a fall from 1.34, it won't happen, it will leave the bears in trouble, and will use that level as a support to reach the 1.35 area.

The other interesting thing is that the sell orders are eaten up....while the hit of the long stop cluster (which stop eating beast was caused by a good dollar data -> also a typical trick to turn everybody to the wrong direction) should easily helped down EurUsd to the next 'reasonable buy zone'.


Also on my own built chart I can recognize most tops and bottoms in diff. timeframes, and the last one (which you signed as a bull trap) is an odd one in several timeframes (the top is too flat, there is no such spike or etc...usually />50%/ this means that top will be penetrated).

Than there are the 1.33580, which was the boosting zone for EurUsd bulls in the second half of 2013 (two times).

So this is a good level to start praying for the 1.35000 imo.
Amen, trade safe.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #15,715
  • Aug 5, 2014 3:52pm Aug 5, 2014 3:52pm
Quoting hathor
{quote} Hi Infinitus! My theory/ballad/sci-fi/script/etc: It's just an everyday psychological trick I think...this will be the usual turn before everybody would be satisfied (like 1.4 and so on)...and turning now 'looks' early, but actually a setup is forming accordingly to bull's plan...the best turnovers are the connected double-traps imo. Now we had first a bull trap (cleaning up the bull herd), while a huge herd of bear was born. Probably the stopped out bulls joined the bears, or just sit and watch the lower levels for entry...but they will...

good and interesting analysis

let the force be with us
  • #15,716
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:01pm Aug 5, 2014 4:01pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Here Comes Snowden 2.0... And How The Government Determines If You Are A "Terrorist Threat"


  • #15,717
  • Aug 6, 2014 2:15am Aug 6, 2014 2:15am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Flight MH17 - What You're Not Being Told
  • #15,718
  • Aug 6, 2014 2:32am Aug 6, 2014 2:32am
EurUsd went under 1.33580, but closed above on h1, and looks like it will close over on h4 either. So far so good.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #15,719
  • Aug 6, 2014 2:39am Aug 6, 2014 2:39am
EW on EU

4h TF

@ around 3316 the wave 5 is equal to the wave 1

@ 3304 wave 5 is 50% of wave 3

@ 3269 wave 5 is 61,8% of wave 5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_4 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 65 KB
  • #15,720
  • Aug 6, 2014 2:41am Aug 6, 2014 2:41am
Quoting infinitus
EW on EU 4h TF @ around 3316 the wave 5 is equal to the wave 1 @ 3304 wave 5 is 50% of wave 3 @ 3269 wave 5 is 61,8% of wave 5 {image}

structure of wave 5 so far is open to discussion

one can count the 5 as finished, or we are in an ABC -flat subwave 4 of wave 5
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