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Funny Looking Rectangles & Useless Drivel

  • #221
  • Aug 4, 2014 12:00pm Aug 4, 2014 12:00pm
spend less time staring at bar charts and a little more studying the mind and human behaviour. The markets are just a reflection of human feelings.
The reason the majority lose trading is because we are just making human errors. Stop inventing stuff that doesn't exist and start seeing the logic.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

http://www.scientificamerican.com/po...-exi-08-10-03/

http://www.rochester.edu/newscenter/...s-study-shows/

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...gful-patterns/
tradewith60
  • #222
  • Aug 4, 2014 9:17pm Aug 4, 2014 9:17pm
Quoting 60minuteman
spend less time staring at bar charts and a little more studying the mind and human behaviour. The markets are just a reflection of human feelings. The reason the majority lose trading is because we are just making human errors. Stop inventing stuff that doesn't exist and start seeing the logic. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia http://www.scientificamerican.com/po...-exi-08-10-03/ http://www.rochester.edu/newscenter/...s-study-shows/...
...and check out these links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
  • #223
  • Aug 4, 2014 9:52pm Aug 4, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting 60minuteman
spend less time staring at bar charts and a little more studying the mind and human behaviour. The markets are just a reflection of human feelings. The reason the majority lose trading is because we are just making human errors. Stop inventing stuff that doesn't exist and start seeing the logic. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia http://www.scientificamerican.com/po...-exi-08-10-03/ http://www.rochester.edu/newscenter/...s-study-shows/...
Quoting msood
{quote} ...and check out these links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
Whilst very interesting, I think these posts are off topic, and you should pop over to the origin of this thread, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=496106, where these ideas may be more appreciated?
  • #224
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:01am Aug 5, 2014 2:01am
Quoting msood
{quote} ...and check out these links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
strange no studies relating to trading on that one.. are you in denial of facts?
tradewith60
  • #225
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:04am Aug 5, 2014 2:04am
Quoting 4xbones
{quote} {quote} Whilst very interesting, I think these posts are off topic, and you should pop over to the origin of this thread, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=496106, where these ideas may be more appreciated?
maybe you're right - but it's always nice to have a counter argument to an unproven theory.

-and just maybe I can save one poor soul from 3 years of tweaking random lines and possibly losing some money he can not afford to lose
tradewith60
  • #226
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:28am Aug 5, 2014 2:28am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} strange no studies relating to trading on that one.. are you in denial of facts?
No studies relating to trading on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia either that you posted.

And now you should have a look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eristic and do some self reflection - it may also help with your trading
  • #227
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:37am Aug 5, 2014 2:37am
Quoting msood
{quote} No studies relating to trading on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia either that you posted. And now you should have a look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eristic and do some self reflection - it may also help with your trading
don't try and make it personal - that reflects badly on you. I made a point about humans seeing meaningless patterns, let's leave it at that. thanks

http://mises.ca/posts/blog/the-limit...chart-reading/
tradewith60
  • #228
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:16am Aug 5, 2014 4:16am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} maybe you're right - but it's always nice to have a counter argument to an unproven theory. -and just maybe I can save one poor soul from 3 years of tweaking random lines and possibly losing some money he can not afford to lose
Don't you think what you have been saying in this thread are overstatements?

In this field, either you agree or disagree with one's approach & beliefs about the market. Counter arguments are never an issue.
When you are saying that an approach cannot work, in another way you are saying you couldn't make it work.
The issue is, that doesn't mean someone else couldn't, so why try to bind others to your limitations?

It is really up to them to find out whether it can or not work for them. Even if it doesn't, the journey is not wasted.
It is often the bangs and turns that help us develop a deeper grasp and understanding of the nature of the market, so why spoil the fun or potential of others'?
  • #229
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:27am Aug 5, 2014 4:27am
Quoting Rand Yap
{quote} Don't you think what you have been saying in this thread are overstatements? In this field, either you agree or disagree with one's approach & beliefs about the market. Counter arguments are never an issue. When you are saying that an approach cannot work, in another way you are saying you couldn't make it work. The issue is, that doesn't mean someone else couldn't, so why try to bind others to your limitations? It is really up to them to find out whether it can or not work for them. Even if it doesn't, the journey is not wasted. It is often...
That's a good argument.

However, a counter argument could be made that idouble is never going to tell plainly how his method works. A piece here, and nibble there.

60 simply wants a QUANTITATIVE analysis of these patterns.

Of course, when this gets asked, people get mad.

Mainly because you are interfering with their daydream.

A good book...Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

That said, I am not saying that you cannot make a system out of these boxes. You can.

But it boils down to how you trade, and most people do not even know what trading is.

It is finding the best value for the least risk. Good luck.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #230
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:35am Aug 5, 2014 4:35am
Quoting Rand Yap
{quote} Don't you think what you have been saying in this thread are overstatements? In this field, either you agree or disagree with one's approach & beliefs about the market. Counter arguments are never an issue. When you are saying that an approach cannot work, in another way you are saying you couldn't make it work. The issue is, that doesn't mean someone else couldn't, so why try to bind others to your limitations? It is really up to them to find out whether it can or not work for them. Even if it doesn't, the journey is not wasted. It is often...
I have never said it can not work - just be aware of how the mind works when relying on visual interpretations.

I use patterns in my trading but I understand they have little or no predictive qualities, I use them as structure combined with other factors.

If you believe there is some predictive quality it could be measured and would give similar results over and over again.

Just stop and ask yourself why do you believe this works? have you proven that it works? or are you relying on a sub conscious bias that it must work?

good luck
tradewith60
  • #231
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:41am Aug 5, 2014 4:41am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} That's a good argument. However, a counter argument could be made that idouble is never going to tell plainly how his method works. A piece here, and nibble there. 60 simply wants a QUANTITATIVE analysis of these patterns. Of course, when this gets asked, people get mad. Mainly because you are interfering with their daydream. A good book...Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds That said, I am not saying that you cannot make a system out of these boxes. You can. But it boils down to how you trade, and most people do not...
good post jmn... yes, I am just posing the question - I always try to be contrarian in my thinking for logical reasons...

most traders believe in patterns and TA and most traders are failing. If patterns really existed and worked they would be over exploited and then fail? maybe, maybe not....
tradewith60
  • #232
  • Aug 5, 2014 4:46am Aug 5, 2014 4:46am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} That's a good argument. However, a counter argument could be made that idouble is never going to tell plainly how his method works. A piece here, and nibble there. 60 simply wants a QUANTITATIVE analysis of these patterns. Of course, when this gets asked, people get mad. Mainly because you are interfering with their daydream. A good book...Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds That said, I am not saying that you cannot make a system out of these boxes. You can. But it boils down to how you trade, and most people do not...
Let me get your perspective right,
if you expect to come into an online forum and get a working system with all the proofs, it is a daydream.
if you ask for a working system from someone and demand him to prove to you in every sense you want him to, in a crude manner, it is a day dream. Who would share anything with an s.

If someone is not willing to share to the extend you expect them to, you get mad.
If you want a quantitative analysis and you don't get it and you are unwilling to do it yourself, you get mad.

Be grateful even if these are bread crumbs or small leads, take what make sense to you or leave it.
  • #233
  • Edited 5:13am Aug 5, 2014 4:56am | Edited 5:13am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I have never said it can not work - just be aware of how the mind works when relying on visual interpretations. I use patterns in my trading but I understand they have little or no predictive qualities, I use them as structure combined with other factors. If you believe there is some predictive quality it could be measured and would give similar results over and over again. Just stop and ask yourself why do you believe this works? have you proven that it works? or are you relying on a sub conscious bias that it must work? good luck ...
Why is it that you are assuming that i believe there is some predictive quality it could be measured and would give similar results over and over again?
Since the start of this thread, i have clearly stated i never like his approach. I did small test over 166 lines that has a 97% return rate though.

So why are you imposing something on me which is not true and get into the mood of dishing our advices? to feel good i suppose.
In anyways you didn't get the point i'm trying to drive to you, in not to make overstatements.
  • #234
  • Aug 5, 2014 8:19am Aug 5, 2014 8:19am
Quoting Rand Yap
{quote} I did small test over 166 lines that has a 97% return rate though.
Lines as 1H fall lines? Did you look at how much the price deviates from those?

Thanks!
  • #235
  • Aug 5, 2014 9:13am Aug 5, 2014 9:13am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fall line.png Size: 178 KB
  • #236
  • Aug 5, 2014 9:38am Aug 5, 2014 9:38am
Quoting candero
{quote} Lines as 1H fall lines? Did you look at how much the price deviates from those? Thanks!
That is the stats for 1H fall lines. The rest is up to you to find out =)
  • #237
  • Aug 5, 2014 10:33am Aug 5, 2014 10:33am
Still watching this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY-D1.png Size: 74 KB
  • #238
  • Aug 6, 2014 6:34am Aug 6, 2014 6:34am
Quoting Rand Yap
{quote} Let me get your perspective right, if you expect to come into an online forum and get a working system with all the proofs, it is a daydream. if you ask for a working system from someone and demand him to prove to you in every sense you want him to, in a crude manner, it is a day dream. Who would share anything with an s. If someone is not willing to share to the extend you expect them to, you get mad. If you want a quantitative analysis and you don't get it and you are unwilling to do it yourself, you get mad. Be grateful even if these...
This post is golden. Thank you for defending what is the truth about this.
  • #239
  • Aug 6, 2014 6:46am Aug 6, 2014 6:46am
Quoting Relativity
{image} Current EURJPY. Higher PriceFrame {image} Lower PriceFrame {image}
Followup; so what happened? Double top held and broke down for good short. Short waves within one big wave. Right now it appears downtrend wants to end or at least take a good break and go on the side.

Higher PriceFrame
http://i62.tinypic.com/21d0tvo.png

Lower PriceFrame
http://i62.tinypic.com/2ecizqq.png

These boxes are really helping me to trade and 'follow the trend' better.
  • #240
  • Aug 6, 2014 7:35am Aug 6, 2014 7:35am
Update :
Double bottom attempting to form.
Statistically speaking, price tends to flat out and range within 30-40% of previous swing.
Price can oscillate around and this is projected with the yellow horizontal line.
Price has to break key high as shown by the gray box into order to establish a possible new uptrend.
http://i61.tinypic.com/117y3xy.png
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