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  • #4,281
  • Aug 1, 2014 8:42am Aug 1, 2014 8:42am
Quoting njr
Wow - what a day! Looks like the bulls are running scared for the moment. Great to see the VIX up again and lots of opportunities for selling premium! Sold some ES mini and holding fire on the rest of my margin to see what the NFPs deliver tomorrow. SPX only pulled back 2% today which is not much given the amazing run it has had over the past few years. If the market tanks again tomorrow, I'll look to sell more PUTs around the 0.05 - 0.1 delta! Good luck to all on taking advantage of the current market! There's decent money to be made from this...
Looks like initial market reaction to NFP is positive. I'll see how high they move today and maybe look at selling calls depending on how high SPX moves.
  • #4,282
  • Aug 1, 2014 9:08am Aug 1, 2014 9:08am
Beautiful half an hour for weekly option scalpers. For example - FB calls strike 73... quadrupled so far. From $0.10 to $0.40 now...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,283
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:31am Aug 1, 2014 10:31am
new BUTTERFLY trade entered for next week August 8 expiration on GDX put. As follows for a single position listing is below but have bought a few. price is on first column i bought at.
Its a OTM PUT butterfly, bought $26 put, sold 2 $25 puts and bought $24 put

Estimated returns
GDX at $26.19 on 1st Aug 2014
Initial outlay: $23 (net debit)
Maximum risk: $23 at a price of $26 at expiry
Maximum return: $77 at a price of $25 at expiry
Breakevens at expiry: $25.78, $24.23
  • #4,284
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:37am Aug 1, 2014 10:37am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Damn just noticed where the USD is and if it doesn't take out $81.64 then it should retrace which may take the euro higher which will stop me out
got stopped out of Euro at $1.3402
  • #4,285
  • Aug 1, 2014 10:54am Aug 1, 2014 10:54am
Quoting njr
{quote} Looks like initial market reaction to NFP is positive. I'll see how high they move today and maybe look at selling calls depending on how high SPX moves.
Sold ES mini CALLs and bought back. Market dropping and will look at selling further PUTs if this is another 250+ move in the Dow today...
  • #4,286
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:10am Aug 1, 2014 11:10am
Quoting njr
{quote} Sold ES mini CALLs and bought back. Market dropping and will look at selling further PUTs if this is another 250+ move in the Dow today...
good luck with that, at a 250 point drop we should get some sort of bounce next week,
  • #4,287
  • Aug 1, 2014 11:57am Aug 1, 2014 11:57am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} good luck with that, at a 250 point drop we should get some sort of bounce next week,
Hey CG - Yeah, it doesn't look like a 250+ move will happen today. However, I do expect further volatility next week though and will continue to sell PUTs / CALLs on any continued drops or bounces.

Sounds like the butterfly tests are going well. All the best with the live trades
  • #4,288
  • Aug 1, 2014 1:05pm Aug 1, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} good luck with that, at a 250 point drop we should get some sort of bounce next week,
I bought back SSO short Sep $121 calls this morning for $0.68, about a $1.10 net. CSCO ic is looking grim, but will hang on next week and let some theta help me, maybe catch a little bounce and escape with little loss. IC's with weekly legs require close monitoring & these days my screentime is in short supply.

I'd bet we see some kind of rebound into next week...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,289
  • Aug 1, 2014 6:36pm Aug 1, 2014 6:36pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} CSCO ic is looking grim, but will hang on next week and let some theta help me, maybe catch a little bounce and escape with little loss. IC's with weekly legs require close monitoring & these days my screentime is in short supply. I'd bet we see some kind of rebound into next week...
I have a thing or two to learn about trading IC's and I am hoping this won't be an expensive lesson. As of now I am $0.33 in the hole on my CSCO IC.

There's different ways to time the IC's and all has to do with what you are trying to accomplish via the iv's. I have CSCO ER coming 8/13 and I had hoped to whittle away at the (9/20) long legs debit through credits gained on 8/8 short legs. Well, it didn't quite pan out that way, I wasn't planning on seeing CSCO drop $1.00 in a couple days, wasn't planning on a big market move. Was just thinking about playing the next 8/16 short legs, which will have iv ramped up pre-ER, for some good profit. Which I may still do ok on, just hoping not to have to try to dig myself out of a hole.

Options offer a lot of flexibility when it comes to trading your way out of a jam, but it's often just as well to take a small loss and try to move on to the next winner....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,290
  • Aug 3, 2014 4:28pm Aug 3, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I bought back SSO short Sep $121 calls this morning for $0.68, about a $1.10 net. CSCO ic is looking grim, but will hang on next week and let some theta help me, maybe catch a little bounce and escape with little loss. IC's with weekly legs require close monitoring & these days my screentime is in short supply. I'd bet we see some kind of rebound into next week...
we'll see if vega risk outweighs theta benefit.

Reading a good options book this weekend, heavy on discussion of risk management, written from a market maker's perspective:

http://www.amazon.com/Option-Market-...s=baird+option
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,291
  • Aug 4, 2014 2:17am Aug 4, 2014 2:17am
Quoting StrayDog
I will just eat some popcorn, and prepare myself for next week and maybe buy some strangles in advance (FSLR, GRPN, REGN, TTWO, SCTY, SFUN, SSYS, ZNGA....)
I ate some popcorn one time while I was on vacay in the sticks in Mexico. One of the little hard kernel pieces got stuck in my gum, way down deep where I couldn't get it out. It was hurting like hell, so I went to the dentist, who was also the veterinarian. His office looked like a medieval torture chamber. He pricked that thing out of there and I spat out a stream of blood and pus and paid him about $4 and was on my way. I felt better for about a day, and then I felt worse. Much worse. I had got an infection from the same little scalpel he had just been castrating goats with. I had fever so high they had to put me in a tub full of ice. Whoever they were. Because I don't remember much except I woke up in the hospital in New Orleans about two weeks later with not even the clothes I had been wearing, which they said they had to incinerate.

Trading options much safer. I am looking out 2-4 weeks at ER prospects:

8/19: HD, MDT, TOL
8/20: HPQ, LOW, SPLS, TGT
8/21: DLTR, GME
8/22: QIHU
8/25: CRM
8/26; BBY
8/27: TIF
9/1: CONN
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,292
  • Aug 4, 2014 2:25am Aug 4, 2014 2:25am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I ate some popcorn one time while I was on vacay in the sticks in Mexico. One of the little hard kernel pieces got stuck in my gum, way down deep where I couldn't get it out. It was hurting like hell, so I went to the dentist, who was also the veterinarian. His office looked like a medieval torture chamber. He pricked that thing out of there and I spat out a stream of blood and pus and paid him about $4 and was on my way. I felt better for about a day, and then I felt worse. Much worse. I had got an infection from the same little scalpel...
Wow - I will never go to a dentist in Mexico! As you say, options are WAAAAAAAAAAYYYYY safer :-) Lol
  • #4,293
  • Aug 4, 2014 3:00pm Aug 4, 2014 3:00pm
Nothing new. Watching SnP to see if it can put together a couple or more up days so SSO will go above $115. Will sell 8/29 $120 SSO calls against 9/20 $125 long calls if the rebound has legs.

Watching my CSCO IC. CSCO drifting up, I just need it to finish above $25.50 this week, or get above there by Thursday....

Counting down to Jackson Hole.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,294
  • Aug 5, 2014 11:46am Aug 5, 2014 11:46am
Sold some more Es mini PUTs. On the next significant up day, I'll might look to sell an equivalent number of CALL contracts around the same delta as my PUTs to create a short strangle. VIX is still holding above 15; so still reasonable volatility!
  • #4,295
  • Aug 5, 2014 2:05pm Aug 5, 2014 2:05pm
c'mon somebody dare me to short the VIX spike?!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,296
  • Aug 5, 2014 3:03pm Aug 5, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting The Fool
c'mon somebody dare me to short the VIX spike?!
I'll dare ya TF

It seems the algos were rather sensitive on the 'RUSSIAN UNITS POISED TO PRESSURE OR INVADE UKRAINE' comments from the Polish chap Sikorski! According to the 'experts' SPX support at 1913 which was tested today but held. If you fade the VIX, I'd allow a decent % buffer for any additional short term volatility from any other headlines that may come out or any other algo reactions!

Personally, I'm enjoying the high vol. Selling PUTs / CALLs around the 45 -55 DTE and around a 0.1 delta has been quite profitable particularly on days like today when there are $2 intraday moves on these options!
  • #4,297
  • Aug 5, 2014 6:07pm Aug 5, 2014 6:07pm
Quoting njr
{quote} I'll dare ya TF
yep it looks like 1,916 +/- was last Fridays brutal low, if somebody wants to call that support, fine. I was watching UVXY today at the right moment and almost squeezed off a round or two at a bearish put spread, but held my fire, will look again tomorrow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,298
  • Aug 5, 2014 11:56pm Aug 5, 2014 11:56pm
HLF dipping to a 2yr low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-08-05hlf.png Size: 64 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,299
  • Aug 6, 2014 12:27am Aug 6, 2014 12:27am
CSCO IC not doing too good. -$0.14 on the calls and -$0.28 on the puts. If share price will nudge back over the $25.00 strike tomorrow and Thursday I may roll out of the 8/8 puts at small loss or maybe break even. And start over? ER's 8/13. CSCO and other tech large cap with $0.50 strike divisions often pin on the 0.50 or 0.00 in the days before the ER. Will be trying to monitor over next 5 trading days, maybe I can still make out ok on a ER pop. Could hold the 9/20 puts/calls and play weekly legs....

What I did wrong: I should have taken a small loss on the $25.50 8/8 puts when I had a chance. General lesson learned: IC's require regular monitoring, shouldn't trade them at times when screentime is curtailed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-08-05_csco.png Size: 36 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,300
  • Aug 6, 2014 11:26am Aug 6, 2014 11:26am
Hi guys. Did not have a screen time from Monday until now, had some personal things to do... On Monday I had idea of doing DIS weekly Iron Condor 83/84 + 89/90. It was about $0.34 credit then, I might assume a little more at earnings evening, and that would be a good trade. To bad...

From dough - MCD bullish put spread 90 / 92.50 for Sep19th expiry. They got $0.77 credit for it. I can see that 92.50 is major support, so the idea is clear from technical point of view. Hm...

I am thinking of some kind of play for GMCR ER tonight. I can see that stock is a mover, and this close to earnings - I dont want to buy expensive options, like strangles or straddles. I will probably chicken out, but thinking of IC there. It would be 107/108 + 130/131 for this Friday expiration. It is about $0.40 credit if filled at midpoint.

NVDA and SCTY have earnings tomorrow AH. Will think about those two also.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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