Funny Looking Rectangles & Useless Drivel

This one is for those who might be students of Ross Beck's Emblem work. It is not a full blown emblem, and I have taken liberty with my version of the Fibonacci Fan concept that he uses to set Time based retracement levels within his emblem. However, in this case it shows something of a "Wormhole" located on the 61.8 blade with the 78.6 blade as time based resistance. Note the Early Warning, after suffering some upside pressure, has now moved closer to this GBPUSD Standard D1 B2i painted on an M15 chart.

Before:
http://i60.tinypic.com/znlj7n.jpg


After:
http://i62.tinypic.com/97p8c1.jpg

A decent Early Warning Entry Windows where you did not have to wait until price moved beyond the Intersection Point where the two Mirrored Projection lines met. Keep in mind that this B2i was made by the market (not me) between 0000 hrs and 1600 hrs during the 7/31/2014 trading session. The early warning break of the Upper Mirrored Projection line happened at 1845 hrs on 7/31/2014, creating the "early warning" trigger and establishing an entry window based on the three principles below (reprinted):

A) If price continues to reel higher, even establishing a new Higher High, then the Fall Line is still BELOW the point of entry. Maximum logical protection.

B) If price stops after it penetrates the opposite mirrored leg and then moves down, it initiates the profit phase sooner rather than later.

C) The only thing that can prevent a successful trade in that situation would be if the pattern itself was an historically anomaly.


I'm merely overlaying the Encircled Fib Fan to show which time based Fib blade was closest to the early warning trigger area. Lastly, take a very close look at which Fib blade passes through the B2i Fall Line. You will note that Fib blades 50.0, 61.8, 78.6 and 88.6 will all (at some point in time) pass through this Fall Line. What's the potential significance of that? It is significant because you can know which Fib blade interacts with the Fall Line before it happens, as both the B2i pattern and the Fan can be known ahead of time.

LG, thanks and glad you could join the thread!

Before I was a trader, I had a full career as a systems consultant in the enterprise software industry. I worked with business intelligence and data integration and analytics applications. My job was to explain to corporations how such solutions could help them drive their business enterprise with better efficiency and with more insight. I traveled the world doing it and I had a ball for more than a decade. When you work in a role like that, having to go before C-level types on a routine basis with hand-built proof of concepts or walk them through pilot programs, you develop the ability to work with raw data from all kinds of sources and in all manner of integration.

When I got involved with the markets, I tried the easy way out first, by researching conventional technical analysis until I was blue in the face. I had some success but it was always capped. I had a personal drive for perfection in everything I did that mattered to me and I was not seeing "perfection" in standard indicators. This was very naive, but such naivety turned out to be the very thing that propelled me to want to explore raw market data on my own. Doing so proved to be the biggest and most important decision I have ever made as a trader.

Raw Data Research is not for everyone. I cannot explain to you how or why I "see things" in data, I just do. I have a long time friend who works in Intelligence. I am not going to say where, but he works in part of our nation's Intel community. It is my understanding that people who can analyze data and spot patterns are of "high value" to our Intel community. I never went that route (though I had the opportunity) as I desired to remain independent. I cannot give you a pat answer that explains how or why, but all I can say is that I enjoy integrated data and finding patterns that others seem to miss. Numeric data analysis is about asking questions of your data and being open to the response you get. Data visualization makes this process more intuitive.

[See TCD Chart Below]

Now, having said that and knowing that you already know what a TCD looks like, when you look at this Tactical TCD data, you can learn to visualize that path that these trajectories are taking through the various price levels. The Red and Green lines are TCD Trajectories for 60 bars of D1 data graphed in a very simplistic excel chart. The chart is smoothed and the black line is the harmonic average of both TAC-TCD-L and TAC-TCD-S (data forms you are already familiar with) using a 3rd order polynomial.

If you are familiar with the concept of Trajectories and Vectors relative to how I implemented them in my work, then you know that the vertical axis of the chart represents Magnitude in pips. The horizontal axis is Time, where "0" is Bar[0] and "60" is Bar[60] on an MT4 chart. The pip range on this chart runs from 0 pips at the bottom to 350 pips at the top. These are simple Tactical TCD values, so that means they are Absolute TCDs, not the SAC or RT TCDs.

There is a wealth of information on this one chart alone and this is just one (1) simple Delta Class Indicator.

If the black line represents the harmonic average of both types of TCD, then when the Green or Red line goes above the black line, that TCD is outperforming the harmonic average of both combined. That's one piece of information you can use. Another piece of information is the outlier detail. Notice that the large pip outliers are far outnumbered by the small pip outliers by more than 2 to 1. That tells you there are more small pip moves in both TCD trajectories than there are large pip moves for the same data set. This chart also shows you the characteristic duration of large pip moves in each trajectory (TCD-L and TCD-S).

One of the cornerstones of my research is pattern discovery. When I look at a chart like this, I want to know the average duration for a TCD trajectory to remain below the harmonic average pip level. When I look at a chart like this, I also want to know the tendency or behavior of the TCD when it begins to approach the harmonic average pip level - does it follow through and penetrate or does it have a tendency to stall and fall back below the harmonic average. Why? Because, that is the kind of stuff that is quantifiable, measurable, calculable, identifiable and I can construct a probability statement about such behavior - after evaluating a sufficient number of data sets. THEN, I can begin the process of thinking about constructing a Trade Signal. And, that's not even the tip of the iceberg for the number of questions that I can ask of this one chart alone.

That is one example of the kind of mental process I go through when evaluating this kind of data. I put the data into a form I can visualize, first. I then isolate and clearly identify the elements of the data I am interesting in evaluating (Red for TCD-S, Green for TCD-L and Black for the Harmonic average of the two). I clearly set each axis to differentiate both Time and Magnitude. Once I have the data oriented in a fashion that I can analyze, I begin questioning the data. You have to ask questions of your data. Data talks back. Data loves to run its mouth. It will talk to you all day long, but NOT if you don't ask it intelligent questions.

When you look at this data and ask it good questions, you can see that TCD-L, is about to make a run from condition where that trajectory produces about 70 pips, to a condition where it will start producing over 100 pips. Why? Because of the QUESTION I asked it. I asked it: When was the last time TCD-L made a move from underneath the harmonic and failed to penetrate? The answer is: 0 times in the last 60 days.

The next question I asked of the data was: How long does TCD-L remain underneath the harmonic before making a move? The answer is: Less than 4 periods on average. The next question I asked of the data was: How many periods has TCD-L been under the harmonic? The answer is: Currently 5 periods. The next question was: Has TCD-L struck its historic low pip average depth yet? The answer is: Yes, 5 days ago.

Based on just these questions alone - I could look at this one chart alone and tell you that this currency pair was about to make a move Long for at least 80 pips (the harmonic average) and that it was going to do it within the next 24 hours. The rest would be waiting for the market to open and for the TCD-S to reach a comfortable depth in its Magnitude and then entering Long the market for some fraction of 80 pips as a Test Cycle. I then go back and start asking a completely different set of questions based on the visualization of the data in the chart. There are LOTS of other good questions to ask of the data. I only ran through a few to give you some ideas. That is what this thread is all about, giving you good ideas that are outside mainstream thinking.

http://i61.tinypic.com/ok7k77.jpg

For those that don't understand the basic set of Delta Class Indicators that I created and demonstrated online for a number of years, please note that I won't have time to unpack that here in this thread. Hopefully, traders like LiquidGenius and some of the others who have followed my work in the past, can help get you up to speed on those basic indicators. I just won't have time to get into that this time around.

Ok, LiquidGenius. I hope that helps you a bit with getting some traction on finding ways to make use of data like TCD and DV. You've put the data into columnar form which is great for designing signals. However, you might want to graph the data so that you can visualize it as well. I do both and I get ideas by using different Data Visualization methods.

Where others see just silly little lines, I hunt for the opportunities by knowing what the data is, what it is supposed to do relative to the X and Y axes and then I query the data visually with some common sense questions. At that point, the data opens up and talks to me.

Interesting threads subscribed and have a basic question. Someone clarify me which candles to start draw the rectangle? Everyday opening price (First candle) or is that any other criteria to select particular candle start to draw the rectangle.

Oh really

Thanks for the in depth response iDoubleStoch,

I know it's practically impossible to explain how your brain works or how to think, but your response has been enlightening. Like many of your posts that stick out to me, I read and re-read them, only to read them again later and gain a new 'type' of appreciation and understanding of them as my knowledge grows. I suspected that a lot of the "seeing" is in plotting the output and asking questions; I'm also suspecting that I'm not spending enough time asking the right questions or studying the charts that are produced. I certainly relate to you when you talk about dealing with the perfection of indicators. I think I unreasonably expect for patterns to jump out at me when I read so much about other talking about how 'obvious' some patterns in the market are. Like a riddle, it's easy to solve when you've already done it once before. I think I will slow down my research a little bit and spend more time looking at the 'charts' rather than pushing out results, a problem I never thought I would have. I see it to definitely be the more intellectually challenging part of statistical analysis, so I suppose it's only right to struggle with it.

I think people who search enough for the things we talked about will find my own blurbs online; after all I have a whole category dedicated to you heh

iDoubleStoch

Great thread. Can you advise which earlier posts/ threads you are referring to; I would like to follow. I could only find two threads under your current profile - thx

Dear all, B2i version 2 as attached.
This version allows you to adjust the start and end of the session for drawing B2i, and it works for all timeframes.
Red line = start, Green line = end.
If you set -show all- to 1, it will show you all the potential rectangles as they unfold.

*Never delete start/end lines as it will cause mt4 for crash.

I'm kind of busy until mid Sep as i am preparing for my Wedding =)
So do not expect a fast response as i will only do the coding in my spare time.
You guys should be very thankful to iDoublestoch as he has been very generous.

Wouldn't just voiding them be a better choice, than delving deeper to account for them? Do you have your reasons
I mean it is not like there is a lack of such B2i quality set-ups, voiding them makes the fall line overall % success rate better for sure.
I'm also thinking along your line that the fall lines are point of equilibrium, if it touches, the equilibrium is reached, no matter inside or outside, sooner or later.

This indicator is fantastic. Yes, IDoubleStoch has been generous indeed, but we are so thankful for your contribution also. Very unselfish of you.

BTW: All the best for your marriage.

I've said that swing 1 is statistically related to swing 3.

However, now with your ideas... I've decided to project out swing 1 beyond swing 3, but swing 5,7...etc, since statistically speaking, trends go more than 3 swings 30-40% of time. Elliot says 5 swings for trend, plus later works added on subswings, which IMO complicates things.

If we are to 'let the trend run', it means letting the swing count run as well. There's a limit of running by the count as you can see, but if we are truly trading the trend... we will never really know when it ends, until 'it does'.

So what I did is to draw it out via indicator and started seeing stuff like this happen over and over again, almost like clockwork;

http://i57.tinypic.com/25rmfl2.png




This means I can use the projected swing 1 as a quantifier to do the following;
-A retracement swing must be greater than swing 1 to consider a possible reversal.
-This means an additional requirement + along with swing count = for trend to end. If trend does not meet the requirements, its safe to assume trend continues.
-Therefore this means we are able to see where the H&S can form in advanced, since now support and resistance levels can be projected; look at what happened at the end of down trend and how it kicked off to a new uptrend.

http://i62.tinypic.com/15re8uq.png


And no, I am not seeing things =) After all, for a long time, I'm been trying to solve these problem(s);
1-I see the boxes as a good way to draw some kind of trend channel, since trend channels do project ahead of time, support and resistance levels well.
2-Trend channels are for trends to run, but so far there doesn't seem to be a right way to plot them. Now, I do think I have a statistically provable answer.
3-I've mentioned this earlier about Elliot classifying 5 swings as a trend and I need an additional requirement, other than swing count, for trend to end. Now, I do.

Another beautiful example in case anyone doesn't see it. I dare say I am not cherry picking as this is just what my indicator says, nothing more.
http://i59.tinypic.com/1z5p0zl.png



Current EURJPY.
Higher PriceFrame
http://i61.tinypic.com/2gv0dqg.png

Lower PriceFrame
http://i61.tinypic.com/f4qm8p.png

Rand Yap

Best wishes for your marriage, and thanks for taking the time to code this. Here's some observations re b2iv2:

1) There seems to be an issue with the time frames. For example, putting it on 1 min chart gives a session duration of 1 hour, on m5 it is five hours, etc.

2) Version 1 had the neat feature of showing previous sessions - gr8 for visually back testing; current version does not show previous occurrences.

3) Ideally, there could be a "period" input which would then work in conjunction with the current displayed timeframe. So opening a 5 minute chart and specifying the period to be 240 would give a session duration of 48 bars, period of 60 on a 1 minute chart would give hourly sessions, etc.

4) Session start seems to be using the close of the last bar in the previous session, instead of the open of the current session as I understood to be the case from iDoubleStoch's posts. Is this by intention and advantageous?

5) I tried putting both version 1 and version 2 on the same chart (1 min); the start candles do not coincide (v1 starts from 0 minutes on the hour, while version 2 starts at 13 minutes past the hour.


Thanks

Is this the work behind OS1?
Green and Red line are your fast and slow moving averages settings, that you got through iterations to get as close to as a cyclical market condition, using the approach of your TAC chart. In fact, if one were to look at moving averages, they themselves are equilibrium levels like your B2i fall line that price always are attracted to.
As such, OS1 fundamental nature is no different from B2i.

I might be wrong, just a wild preliminary guess. I never really like your type of approach in looking at the market, but seeing you make it work is an eye opener. It is always good to keep and open-mind because we are always seeing things from our own limitations.

Thanks for the wishes. Do note that this version is for you to pinpoint the range of bars you want to study. You can double click the red/green line and shift it to where you want.

Thx - didn't realize that - will give it a spin...

Decent range on GU.....few pips to TP

Just ask Mitt Romney, what Line #7 on his Federal Income Tax Return shows. Everything under Line #7 is a completely different world of "taxation." So, yes. Remain legal and legit and you won't have any problems, unless you decide to run for the Presidency and someone decides to glean your tax returns to find out what your Line #7 actually looks like.

Someone on this forum should change their User ID to: Line #7

Just play the game the way they designed it to be played and stay out of trouble.

Most of those discussion have either been buried by forum administrators who did not like what I was doing, or no longer exists because the servers the data sat on no longer exists. I've been doing this since the late 90's in one fashion or another.

The rest of my threads were interrupted by neo-idiots who had no real success as a trader, but knew all the while that I was "selling something" when they never saw a single ad or marketing message asking anyone to buy anything over the years.

So, you have all kinds of Sponsor Paid trolls on forums whose only job is to attack anyone who might be opening some eyes about how to actually become profitable in retail FX (it is possible), because that goes against the Retail Bucket Shop Business Model where your "broker" takes positions against you and offers their "preferred clients" (look it up in your Client Agreement) better conditions overall that are "adverse to your position" (again, READ your Client Agreement).

Certain forums are notorious for doing this kind of thing and on those forums, my threads have been disrupted by idiot morons and I never really got to share much of the information I came to share with novice traders because of all the intrusions.

Congratulations in getting domesticated! I've been domesticated now for 19 years. Potty trained, too. Welcome to the club!

B2i is the visual representation of Distinct Vega. Every bar of data has Distinct Volatility associated with it. The five (5) trajectories that comprise Distinct Vega in the current bar are connected to the history of every bar that came before it. Inside each bar containing DV, is a smaller bar of data with its own DV. Inside that bar is yet another bar containing its own DV, until time compresses to zero (theoretically). This is the multidimensional analysis of an indicator that I spoke of earlier and it gets deeply into Version 5.x of B2i where I cannot go.

Should you void a B2i and/or its Fall Line? For the Version 1.0 that I am able to share, that's a tough question to answer directly. I'll leave that choice up to the trader. There are connections between that question and Version 5.x that I cannot get into. However, this would be better understood if your B2i had input from Distinct Vega - you could watch B2i unfold and see its initial points of extension (HH and LL) projected at the start of the B2i range, instead of having to wait for those extensions to happen.


Define what you mean by "voiding them." In what context would you void a Fall Line (after what event took place)?


"Equilibrium" in the purest definition, probably not. A point of Dynamic Convergence, would be one way to describe it. The B2i Fall Line is an area of Anti-Complacency. Price does not like being there, yet it is initially attracted to that location before being repelled. Today, was a good example of that:

http://i60.tinypic.com/24qqrtv.jpg

Price is initially attracted back to the FL and it then catapulted away where it goes to establish the next B2i range of maximum points of extension for the next pattern.

There is more to B2i than meets the eye and more than I can get into in public.